Econometric Causality

This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modelling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems. Economists embrace a scientific approach to causality and model the preferences and choices of agents to infer subjective (agent) evaluations as well as objective outcomes. Anticipated and realized subjective and objective outcomes are distinguished. Models for simultaneous causality are developed. The paper contrasts the Neyman–Rubin model of causality with the econometric approach.     

Econometric analysis of copyrights

This paper explores the impact of copyrights on firm value and on the demand for firm output. Using panel data on franchise value and ticket sales from the National Football League over the 1991–2000 period, we analyze the effect of copyrights (in this case, team logos) using several parametric estimators, the Arellano and Bond [1991. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58, 277–297] dynamic panel data estimator, and a semi-non-parametric method based on difference-in-differences propensity score matching. We find a negative effect of logo changes on franchise value that is robust across multiple specifications. In addition, logo changes also appear to have a moderate positive, albeit not particularly robust, impact on ticket sales.     

A review of stata 3.1

Stata 3.1 is a program for data management, graphics, and statistical analysis. Since Version 2.1 was reviewed by Pederson (1991), Stata has added several platforms, third-party products, supporting services, and many features of interest to econometricians. The result is that Stata 3.1 integrates fast and reliable manipulation of data with high-powered statistical analysis. For users who do no more than run regressions, the new features do not detract from the feel of ease and control Stata gives the researcher working with any data set, large or small. A unique system to disseminate user-written programs lets Stata grow continuously without becoming unwieldy, ensuring that Stata will become a standard package in several branches of applied statistics. This review summarizes the hardware requirements of Stata, demonstrates a short but typical Stata session, and discusses some of the unique elements of Stata.     

Econometric modelling with non-normal disturbances

This paper analyzes a general class of non-normal density functions (dubbed Sargan densities) in the context of the ordinary regression model and the simple one-market disequilibrium model. Use of the normal density in disequilibrium models is unwieldy, especially for multimarket models, since the application of maximum likelihood methods requires numerical evaluation of multiple integrals. These difficulties are avoided with the Sargan densities, and based on both asymptotic results and limited sampling experiments, these densities appear to offer a promising alternative to the normal in disequilibrium models.     

Econometric modeling of technical change

The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to econometric modeling of substitution and technical change. Substitution is determined by observable variables, such as prices of output and inputs and shares of inputs in the value of output. Our principal innovation is to represent the rate and biases of technical change by unobservable or latent variables. This representation is considerably more flexible than the constant time trends employed in the previous literature. An added advantage of the new representation is that the latent variables can be projected into the future, so that the rate and bias of technical change can be incorporated into econometric projections.     

Econometric Models and Economic Forecasting

This Briefing Paper is thejirst ofa series of three designeddiscussed is the process of making 'constant adjustments' in forecasts. This process involves modifying the results generated by the econometric model. For the first time we are publishing tables of the constant adjustments used in the current forecast. We explain in general why such adjustments are made and also explain the actual adjustments we have made for this forecast.
The second article of the series, to be published in our February 1983 edition, will describe the potential sources of error in forecasts. In particular it will describe the inevitable stochastic or random element involved in e tatistical attempts to quantify economic behaviour. As a completely new departure the article will report estimates of future errors based on stochastic simulations of the LBS. model and will provide statistical error bad for the main elements of the forecast.
The final article, to be published in our June 1983 edition, will contrast the measures of forecast error that e e obtain from the estimation process and our stochastic e imulationsp with the errors that we have actually made, as revealed by an examination of our forecasting 'track record'. It is hoped to draw, from this comparison, some e eneral conclusions about the scope and limits of econometric forecasting producers.     

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<正>政坛国务院3月7日发布任免人事部、劳动保障部国家工作人员公告。任命陈存根为人事部副部长;胡晓义为劳动和社会保障部副部长。同时免去侯建良的人事部副部长职务;王东进的劳动和社会保障部副部长职务。广东省十届     

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中国大型国企管理层持股严控持股数量；国家统计局揭示我国面临住房过剩风险；中国500亿美元投资海外；中国物业税尚处“酝酿”阶段；央行敲定今年货币供应目标。     

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最热门：CFCA证书发放突破百万，最亲密：中国成为乌第五大贸易伙伴，最公益：中国乳业新潮：蒙牛助推牛奶运动，李嘉诚进入内地旅游业，最重视：中国将成星巴克全球第二大市场……     

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<正>最高效:中国高耗能产业“紧箍咒”愈收愈紧中国政府5月25日对外公布了一份遏制高耗能行业盲目扩张的紧急通知。在中国节能减排难言轻松的大背景下,中国高耗能产业“紧箍咒”正愈收愈紧。国家发改委在这份紧急通知要求,各地应严把钢铁、电解铝、     

Econometric models of asymmetric ascending auctions

We develop econometric models of ascending (English) auctions which allow for both bidder asymmetries as well as common and/or private value components in bidders’ underlying valuations. We show that the equilibrium inverse bid functions in each round of the auction are implicitly defined (pointwise) by a system of nonlinear equations, so that conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an increasing-strategy equilibrium are essentially identical to those which ensure a unique and increasing solution to the system of equations. We exploit the computational tractability of this characterization in order to develop an econometric model, thus extending the literature on structural estimation of auction models. Finally, an empirical example illustrates how equilibrium learning affects bidding during the course of the auction.     

构建《计量会计学》的设想

通过对计量经济学及其他计量学科发展的分析,探讨了建立计量会计学的相应条件及相关概念。明确了计量会计学的客观基础、方法、内容,并对计量会计学体系的构建进行初探。     

复合FDI空间计量模型的估计——基于第三方国家影响因素的研究

目前国内外对FDI的研究主要关注FDI东道国和母国双边的影响因素.本文在此基础上,将第三方国家经空间加权后的影响因素考虑进来,试图为这方面相对缺乏的实证研究提供补充.由于输入国市场间的依赖度与跨国公司的贸易有重要关联,我们将贸易成本(距离)作为空间权重,基于1995～2005年的美国输出FDI和中国输入FDI的面板数据,先忽略空间相关性,用传统的两国家三因素模型进行估计,而后使用近期发展起来的空间面板数据广义矩估计方法来建立新的复合FDI模型,对比两个模型可以发现第三方国家的影响是显著的.