救助欧洲：中国宜当“调解人”

尽管欧洲当前遇到的问题是主权债务危机,但未来可能由债务危机触发新一轮的银行危机。一旦欧洲出现银行危机,将会迅速引起市场恐慌,产生比2008年雷曼兄弟破产更为严重的破坏力,给世界经济和中国经济造成巨大的冲击。理由如次。     

从历史的视野看“国家破产”现象的原因及应对之策

自1800年起,近200多年来出现了多轮较大规模的“国家破产”现象。分析其破产原因,主要包括战争和经济危机、国家政策决策失误和管理不善、金融市场管理存在问题、新冠疫情及乌克兰危机等,引发有关国家国内政治、经济矛盾等。总结其经验教训,防止“国家破产”的有力举措包括维护国家信用,严防政府债务滥用;关注通货膨胀、银行危机与“国家破产”之间的关联度;及时化解国内经济社会矛盾,遏制其向危机升级;提高政府治理能力等。     

建立完备有效的银行危机管理体系主动有为的做好风险管控工作

银行危机管理是银行为应对各种危机情境所进行的规划决策、动态调整、化解处理及员工培训等活动过程,其目的在于消除或降低危机所带来的威胁和损失.如果处理得当,危机完全可以演变为"契机".此次金融危机说明银行面临的风险比过去更加多样、更加复杂,面临突发事件倒闭破产的几率更大,目前我国银行业驾驭突发风险的能力明显不足.     

建立完备有效的银行危机管理体系主动有为的做好风险管控工作

银行危机管理是银行为应对各种危机情境所进行的规划决策、动态调整、化解处理及员工培训等活动过程．其目的在于消除或降低危机所带来的威胁和损失。如果处理得当。危机完全可以演变为“契机”。此次金融危机说明银行面临的风险比过去更加多样、更加复杂，面临突发事件倒闭破产的几率更大．目前我国银行业驾驭突发风险的能力明显不足，因此，建立完备有效的银行危机管理体系，主动有为的做好风险管控工作成为当今我国银行业的紧迫性选择。     

积极应对房地产市场引发的银行风险

以美国次贷危机对银行形成的冲击为例,由于美国房地产的大调整导致的次贷危机,迄今为止已有多家银行破产。越来越多的银行走到"准破产"的边缘。据美国联邦储蓄保险公司(FDIC)统计,截至2008年6月底,在该公司参保而出现问题、面临破产的银行数量已增至117家,而3月底为90家,创2003年年中以来的最高纪录。     

次贷危机与中国应对之策

最近影响世界最广的金融事件就是华尔街危机。美国第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟公司提出申请破产,并由此引发一系列经济问题,归根结底都是次贷危机的延伸。2005年美国的经济和房地产发展速度较快,因此银行大规模开展次级抵押贷款业务。但到2007年美国第二大次级抵押贷款公司——新世纪金融宣布破产,大批次级抵押贷款的借款人不能按期偿还贷款,进而引发"次贷危机"。面对次贷危机,中国经济也有类似与美国次级贷款的成分,如果我们不加以注意,中国经济也有被拖入恶性循环的可能性。     

美国爆发银行业危机的可能性

<正>考虑到硅谷银行破产对其他银行的业务冲击有限和美联储及时出台的救市措施,当前美国发生大范围银行挤兑的可能性较小。未来美国是否会发生银行业危机主要取决于商业银行的资产质量。在美联储持续加息的背景下,硅谷银行突然破产成为引爆欧美银行业市场风暴的导火索。硅谷银行破产,既有自身管理不当的缺陷,也与美联储货币政策超预期转向带来的负向冲击有关。硅谷银行事件引发了两个重要问题：美国还有多少银行面临破产风险？美国是否会爆发系统性的银行业危机？关于以上问题分析视角的不同,     

现行商业银行破产法律制度存在的缺陷及完善对策

作为银行竞争的退出机制,银行破产曾经严重影响到社会经济和金融的正常运行。为此,商业银行破产法律制度成为银行业健康发展所不可或缺的重要保障。与国外商业银行破产的成熟立法相比较,我国商业银行破产法律制度存在着存款保险、信息披露、破产预防、破产域外效力、破产责任等几方面的结构性缺陷。并且,现行处理银行危机的方式也存在诸多弊端,以行政手段替代法律法规不仅不能消除系统风险,而且扭曲了市场机制;用国家信用为银行信用担保,不仅效率低下,而且破坏了竞争规则。因此,当前行之有效的解决银行破产理论和实际障碍的方法是单独制定一部《商业银行破产法》。     

国际金融危机:是否还有第二波?

始于2007年8月的美国次级债危机,随着雷曼公司的破产演变成了一场国际金融危机,不仅贝尔斯登和雷曼陷入破产,受美国存款保险公司保险的银行中已有约40家破产,问题银行数量超过130家,国际金融巨头花旗银行股价由55美元跌至97美分(2009年3月17日已反弹至2.33美元),保险业老大AIG巨额亏损被诺贝尔奖得主克鲁格曼称为"僵尸",股价下跌超过98%.     

金融稳定与存款人保护：英国银行破产法改革及其借鉴意义

作为对新一轮银行危机的法律回应，英国颁行了《2009年银行法》，确立了全新的银行破产监管制度，实现了银行破产立法的重大变革，同时也改变了英国此前对金融市场较少干预的基本立场，相信市场自我纠错的监管理念走向终结。该法以金融稳定与存款人保护为宗旨，着重对银行破产立法目标、金融安全网参与者的权力与合作机制以及问题银行的处置程...     

The recent financial crisis,start‐up financing and survival

We investigate the effects of the recent financial crisis on start‐up financing and survival using a dataset that covers all Belgian new business registrations between 2006 and 2009. We find that bank debt is the single most important source of funding, even for start‐ups founded during the crisis. However, start‐ups founded in crisis years use less bank debt and have a higher likelihood of bankruptcy, even after controlling for their creditworthiness. These effects are stronger for start‐ups that are more dependent on bank debt, such as start‐ups founded in bank dependent industries and start‐ups founded by entrepreneurs who are more likely to be financially constrained.     

我国银行业金融机构破产法律制度研究

次贷危机引发的一系列银行倒闭事件引起了公众对银行业金融机构破产的关注。目前,我国的银行破产法律尚属空白。本文结合我国实际,对未来银行业金融机构破产法的诸多方面进行了研究并提出了立法建议。     

Impaired bank health and default risk

Empirical studies in corporate finance have long been focused on the role of banks in reducing the costs of financial distress. The environment and events in Japan provide a “natural experiment” that allows such empirical studies. The number of bankruptcies steadily increased throughout the 1990s, and peaked in 2000. During this period, Japan's banking sector, in contrast, faced considerable problems regarding the disposal of their bad loans. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how various measures of bank health and how defaults of major trading partners affected the probability of bankruptcy among medium-size firms in Japan. Using probit models, we examine the causes of bankruptcy for unlisted Japanese companies in the late 1990s and early 2000s. We find that several measures of bank-specific financial health have had significant impacts on a borrower's probability of bankruptcy, even when observable characteristics relating to these borrower's financial variables are controlled. In particular, a close bank–firm relationship—which usually reduces the probability of bankruptcy—exacerbates the impacts of a financial crisis, which substantially damages other bank health measures as well.     

Corporate Bankruptcy in Korea: Only the Strong Survive?

We analyze whether the build‐up of financial vulnerabilities led listed Korean companies to bankruptcy. We find that pre‐crisis leverage is systematically high for both poor performing/slow growing firms and for profitable/fast‐growing firms. Pre‐crisis leverage raises the probability of bankruptcy, which is lower for firms: (1) relying more on (renegotiable) bank credit; (2) with less inter‐firm debt; and (3) having higher interest coverage ratios. Finally, none of these liquidity variables help predict bankruptcies for chaebol‐firms, suggesting that liquidity constraints are more stringent for non‐chaebol. Thus, in a systemic crisis it is not only the strong/healthy that survive.     

Supply of bank loans and business debts: A view from historical bankruptcy cases

As bank loans fell in the 2008 crisis, business bankruptcy increased. To study how bank loans affect business balance sheets and bankruptcy, we use new data on bankrupt businesses in Missouri between 1898 and 1942. We confirm that when banks curtail loans, courts see more bankruptcies among businesses with high exposure to bank debt. To reduce real volatility, policy‐makers can set tough bank liquidity requirements in the upswing of business cycle but allow weaker requirements in the downswing. We also find that between 1914 and 1933, businesses in St. Louis were more sensitive to changes in bank loans than businesses in Kansas City, probably due to the tight monetary policy conducted by the conservative St. Louis Fed. The Glass‐Steagall Act weakened the relationship between bank loans and business debt structure. The takeaway is that lender‐of‐last‐resort practices stabilize both the financial sector and the real economy.     

Minimum capital requirements,bank supervision and special resolution schemes. Consequences for bank risk-taking

This paper analyzes the incentive effects of special bank resolution schemes which were introduced during the recent financial crisis. These schemes allow regulators to take control over a systemically important financial institution before bankruptcy. We ask how special resolution schemes influence banks’ risk-taking and whether regulators should combine them with minimum capital requirements. We model a single bank which is supervised by a regulator who receives an imperfect signal about the bank's probability of success. We find that capital requirements are better than resolution from a welfare point of view if the quality of the signal is low, if it is difficult for the bank to attract deposits, or if the project return is low.     

中国民营上市公司债务融资破产威胁功效的实证研究

以2002～2007年陷入财务危机的民营上市公司（ST公司）为研究样本．通过相关分析实证检验了中国债务融资的破产威胁功效.研究发现,中国民营上市公司债务融资总体上对财务状况恶劣的公司起到了债务治理作用,发挥了破产威胁功效。短期债务能够对陷入财务危机的民营上市公司起到改善业绩的作用,较好地发挥破产威胁功效,而长期债务未能发挥破产威胁作用。银行贷款能够促进陷入财务困境的民营上市公司改善业绩,发挥破产威胁功效,而商业信用却没能发挥破产威胁功效。     

问题银行的救助:北岩挤兑事件引发的思考

2007年8月,英国北岩银行发生了自维多利亚时代以来的英国银行业首次零售存款挤兑事件。本文介绍了英国对北岩银行的救助,认为从中暴露出英国当前财政部、英格兰银行与金融服务局的三方协定存在缺陷、银行破产清偿机制不健全和存款保险机制安排不合理等问题,指出应当从中汲取的教训,并结合我国实际提出了完善监管合作机制、建立问题银行风险预警机制和早期纠错机制、建立存款保险制度来完善我国问题银行救助机制的相关建议。     

Time series analysis of financial stability of banks: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Islamic banks are characterized by their compliance to Islamic laws and practices, primarily the prohibition of interest and the trading of loans. During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, when a large number of conventional banks announced bankruptcy, no Islamic bank failures were reported. However, there is no clear consensus in the literature on the question of whether Islamic banks are more or less stable than conventional banks. To shed some light on this issue, we studied a sample of Saudi banks using quarterly data over a period centered on the 2008 financial crisis. Careful analysis of the data suggested first of all that many of the variables typically used in financial stability studies may be non-stationary, a methodological point largely ignored in the literature. Using time series methods suitable for this type of data, we concluded that individual heterogeneity may matter more than either the conventional or Islamic nature of the banks. Concentrating on the largest banks, we find the Islamic banks contribute positively to the stability of the system.     

欧洲主权债务危机的根源与出路

欧洲主权债务危机是主权问题与银行问题相互作用的结果,其根源在于欧洲银行体系和政治结构的特殊性。要化解主权债务危机需要实现财政政策的一体化和银行监管的一体化,同时进一步推动欧盟和欧元区改革。