孩子成本效用的拓展分析及其对中国人口转变的解释

在西方微观人口经济理论的基础上,通过分析孩子在家庭内的成本效用及社会总成本效用的对比关系,揭示出家庭意愿生育水平与社会期望生育水平存在差距的根本原因在于孩子内外部成本效用的不对称.认为生育政策加速中国人口转变的作用机制在于政策的执行改变了家庭内孩子成本效用的对比关系,从而有效地影响了家庭生育决策.     

生育行为成本与效用的探讨——以独生子女家庭为例

生育成本与效用的内涵丰富,我们可以根据不同的理论对成本与效用进行分类,同时也可以构建出生育成本效用的不同具体内容。本文针对独生子女家庭进行生育行为成本与效用的探讨,我国第一批在执行计划生育期间出生的独生子女们,现如今他们大部分自己已经为人父母了,他们的父母大多也处于退休养老阶段,那么生育行为成本与效用在这些独生子女家庭中的体现是怎样的,少生育是否给予这些家庭中的父母在生育成本投入中有一定程度的减少,以及少生育给予父母们的效用是否相对于多生育有所减少,本文对这一系问题进行简单的探讨。     

“二孩”生育政策“遇冷”:理论分析及经验证据

近期以放松“二孩”生育管制为核心内容的政策改革明显“遇冷”,我国人口增长正面临“断崖式”下滑的巨大风险.本文采用文本分析和准实验分析法,从理论和经验上论证了城乡生育成本变化及其对生育率的影响.研究结果表明:近年来,随着生育成本的变化,农村家庭的意愿生育水平大幅下降,而城镇家庭的意愿生育水平小幅增长,最终城乡意愿生育水平总体降低.那么,考虑到目前实际生育率远低于意愿生育水平,“二孩”生育政策“遇冷”就成为由此可得的必然结果.所以,借鉴发达国家经验,通过生育激励措施消解生育成本变化的不利影响,是未来我国人口政策改革的关键.     

我国人口政策对经济发展的长远影响作用

我国在经历了"不限制人口增长、节制生育"的人口政策演变过程后,到20世纪80年代初,确立一对夫妇只生育一个孩子的人口政策,有效控制了人口过快增长,缓解了人口压力,提高了妇女的社会地位和妇幼保健水平,改善了青少年的教育。但人口老龄化、人口性别比例失衡、独生子女问题、劳动年龄人口数量下降、经济发展动力减弱以及家庭规模结构与功能变化等问题日渐突出。借鉴日本、印度的人口政策,我国要把人口问题放在经济和社会发展的全局中考虑,制定适合国情的人口政策,提高人口素质,应从加大社保投入、适时微调生育政策、分类实施放开二胎等方面调整人口政策。     

主持词:生命周期视角下中国的生育支持政策选择

<正>当前中国人口呈现总量负增长开启、乡-城人口流动加速、平均家庭户规模持续收缩、区域人口发展不均衡等发展态势,其核心在于生育率的持续下降。2021年,《中共中央国务院关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》发布,2022年,二十大报告再次提出：“优化人口发展战略,建立生育支持政策体系,降低生育、养育、教育成本”。生育政策调整是一项事关中华民族长远发展的国事。一年多来,     

浅析全面二孩政策对学区房价格的影响

全面二孩政策会带来社会资源及配套设施需求的变化,学区房作为住房与教育的共生体,也受到政策的一定影响。生育政策的放松会带来家庭结构的变化,同时也带来了家庭资源重新分配的需求,研究发现,全面二孩政策下购买学区房能够使家庭资源在两个孩子间分配效用达到最佳,而二孩生育计划推迟了家庭推出学区房的计划,整体上造成学区房需求增加、供给降低;根据供需价格理论,需求增加和供给降低双重作用下,全面二孩政策推动了学区房价格的上涨。     

关于完善现行生育政策的思考

持续了30年的现行生育政策,在对人口控制发挥巨大作用的同时,也在积累负面人口、经济、社会效应:推动人口年龄结构畸形,加速人口老龄化;挤压农民进行生育性别选择;对城乡人群生育权利限定不平等;阻碍新生代教育素质提高;产生大量非意愿独生子女家庭,积聚家庭发展风险和父母养老困境;在城乡户籍一体化改革背景下,该政策可执行性越来越弱等。调整现行生育政策,使之有利于人口长期均衡发展,有利于家庭生育权利保护,是一件迫在眉睫的事情。     

关于完善现行生育政策的思考

持续了30年的现行生育政策,在对人口控制发挥巨大作用的同时,也在积累负面人口、经济、社会效应:推动人口年龄结构畸形,加速人口老龄化;挤压农民进行生育性别选择;对城乡人群生育权利限定不平等;阻碍新生代教育素质提高;产生大量非意愿独生子女家庭,积聚家庭发展风险和父母养老困境;在城乡户籍一体化改革背景下,该政策可执行性越来越弱等.调整现行生育政策,使之有利于人口长期均衡发展,有利于家庭生育权利保护,是一件迫在眉睫的事情.     

《八百万人的实践》告诉了我们什么

长期以来,许多人一直以为如果不对农村人口实行如此严格的生育控制政策,我国人口增长是控制不住的,因此对生育政策向宽松方面的任何微调都充满了忧虑：在如此严格的生育政策和生育管理约束下,尚有不少农民家庭超生,如果政策放松,生育水平必然大幅反弹,稳定低生育水平就更困难。这种认识和忧虑表面上看似乎很有道理——毕竟我国农村以“多子多福、传宗接代、养儿防老、重男轻女”为特征的传统生育文化根深蒂固,许多农民家庭在现行生育政策下具有较强超生倾向。然而,     

《八百万人的实践》告诉了我们什么

长期以来,许多人一直以为如果不对农村人口实行如此严格的生育控制政策,我国人口增长是控制不住的,因此对生育政策向宽松方面的任何微调都充满了忧虑:在如此严格的生育政策和生育管理约束下,尚有不少农民家庭超生,如果政策放松,生育水平必然大幅反弹,稳定低生育水平就更困难.     

Green capital and social reproduction within families practising voluntary simplicity in the US

In this paper, we examine how parents in the US who practise voluntary simplicity enact family and social reproduction. Two key findings emerged. First, adult simplifiers in our study typically grew up within families that practised voluntary simplicity or frugality and transmit these consumption patterns to their own children. Second, simplifiers often struggle with other family members, friends and society over issues related to the tensions that emerge as they seek to simplify their lives while at the same time raising children who will not be ‘shunned’ by a mainstream, consumption-focused society. We conclude that parents who voluntarily simplify are able to maintain their social class status through redefining what it means to be middle class through the creation and utilization of ‘green capital’.     

农村留守儿童心理健康教育成因及对策--以四川省宜宾市为例

近年来我国农村剩余劳动力向城市大规模转移，新社会群体“留守儿童”作为衍生群体而出现。由此，社会对农村留守儿童心理健康教育投入了高度关注。本文清楚地认识到了这个特殊群体的现实状况，总结宜宾市农村留守儿童心理问题的主要表现，分析其主要是由家庭、学校和社会三个方面的原因引起的，从而提出要以家庭、学校、社会三者联合的方式作为解决宜宾市此类特殊群体心理健康教育的有效对策。     

Spouse care for children and other family members: the effects of family benefits

This paper first presents evidence from Spain on the relationship between the labour situation of both spouses within the family and the time dedicated to the care of the children, the elderly and the infirm. Second, it analyses the effect that government benefits for such care would have on the labour market and on household poverty. The results show that while Spanish society has advanced in the incorporation of women into the labour market, most of them still have to assume total responsibility for housework and the care of the children, the elderly and the infirm. Against this background, we find that benefits would decrease female participation in the labour market and the number of hours worked, while they would also contribute towards reducing poverty.     

A Transition Cost Rationale for Transition of the Firm within the Family

Small Business Economics - This paper is about the transition of ownership of shares in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within the family (i.e. from parents to children). In spite of the...     

浅谈家庭社会工作多元理论对婚姻危机的介入问题

每个社会都重视婚姻的过程及一个新家庭的建立。在家庭产生、演变、发展的进程中，由于受环境和夫妻双方因素的影响，伴随着婚姻关系简单、脆弱、混乱和危险等一系列的婚姻危机．这些现象和问题可以用家庭社会学的家庭社会学的家庭生命周期理论、家庭系统理论、社会冲突理论和人本主义理论来解释和回答。针对婚姻问题，在这些理论的指导下，运用家庭社会工作的一般方法。即个案工作法、小组工作法、社区工作法和家庭治疗，介入到家庭婚姻生活中去．化解中国社会的婚姻危机．促进每个家庭的发展，从而有效发挥家庭对社会的正向功能，构建社会主义和谐社会。     

The Phenomenon of Substantive Conflict in the Family Firm: A Cross-Generational Study

This study investigates the influence that family members exert on the extent and frequency of substantive conflict within family firms across generations as a result of their familial relationship (distance) with the owner/manager of the firm and the positions these family members occupy in the family work group and social (non-work) group. Following Beckhard and Dyer (1983), the construct of substantive conflict was vested in four key issues pertinent to family firms: (1) ownership continuity or change; (2) executive leadership continuity or change; (3) power and asset distribution; and (4) management's vision for the role of the firm in society. The results establish a relationship between conflict in a family business and the composition of the family's work group, non-work (social) group, and the extensiveness of the family's social interactions. The relationships between conflict and family influence were found to be moderated by the generations (first, second, third, or later) among involved family businesses.     

The influence of age and gender on food choice: a focus group exploration

With 25% of the UK population predicted to be obese by 2010, the costs to individuals and society are set to rise. Due to the extra economic and social pressures obesity causes, there is an increasing need to understand what motivates and prevents consumers from eating a healthy diet so as to be able to tailor policy interventions to specific groups in society. In so doing, it is important to explore potential variations in attitudes, motivation and behaviour as a function of age and gender. Both demographic factors are easily distinguished within society and a future intervention study which targets either, or both, of these would likely be both feasible and cost‐effective for policy makers. As part of a preliminary study, six focus groups (total n = 43) were conducted at the University of Reading in November 2006, with groups segmented on the basis of age and gender. In order to gather more sensitive information, participants were also asked to fill out a short anonymous questionnaire before each focus group began, relating to healthy eating, alcohol consumption and body dissatisfaction. Making use of thematic content analysis, results suggested that most participants were aware of the type of foods that contribute to a healthy diet and the importance of achieving a healthy balance within a diet. However, they believed that healthy eating messages were often conflicting, and were uncertain about where to find information on the topic. Participants believed that the family has an important role in educating children about eating habits. Despite these similarities, there were a number of key differences among the groups in terms of their reasons for making food choices. Older participants (60+ years old) were more likely to make food choices based on health considerations. Participants between the ages of 18–30 were less concerned with this link, and instead focused on issues of food preparation and knowledge, prices and time. Younger female participants said they had more energy when they ate healthier diets; however, very often their food choices related to concern with their appearance. Older female participants also expressed this concern within the questionnaire, rather than in the group discussions. Overall, these results suggest that consumer motivations for healthy eating are diverse and that this must be considered by government, retailers and food producers.     

未来农村养老问题的估计与判断

70年代以来中国妇女的生育水平出现大幅度的下降 ,农村下降的幅度更大。生育率的下降导致家庭中孩子数量的减少 ,由子女所承担的家庭养老面临巨大的挑战。社会化养老不仅包括社会救济和社会养老保险 ,它应当还涉及到社会养老设施和社区服务体系的建立 ,以及老年医疗体制的建立和完善等。无论是经济供养 ,还是生活照料的社会支持方面 ,未来中国农村社会化养老都存在许多问题。国家必须有一个全面的考虑和规划 ,以解决即将到来的 2 1世纪中国农村的养老问题     

中国未来生育政策的选择

近年来社会上对是否应该放开中国的计划生育政策有很多争论。争论的起因是由于一些调查数据反映的和某些学者估计出的我国目前生育率非常低;鉴于低生育率已经给比较发达的国家带来了很多问题,所以有人呼吁中国的生育政策应该放开。通过对放开生育政策和不放开生育政策两种情形可能导致的人口学后果进行估计,结合国外的经验和教训,从低生育率的长期后果来分析如何合理地选择生育政策。为了避免人口达到零增长后的快速负增长、快速老龄化和人口规模的迅速减少,国家应该密切关注人们生育意愿的变化,必须在适当的时候放开生育政策,使生育水平保持在2.0左右,从而尽可能地避免长期的、过快的负增长给国家和社会带来更为严重的人口与社会经济问题。     

Car child safety seats use among Iranian children in Mashad

Despite the strong evidence of child safety seats (CSSs) effectiveness in reducing injuries, it is still rarely used in some societies. The purpose of this study was to determine prevalence and predictors of CSS use in Mashad, Iran. Five hundred ninety kindergarten children whose parents owned a car were enrolled in the study. Parents were asked about using CSS for their children, reasons for CSS use/non-use, demographics, history of road traffic injuries and receiving any advice on CSS. Of families, 25.5% expressed that they used CSS for their child at present or any time in the past, but only 6.3% of children travelled restrained in CSS at the time of study. Age-appropriate CSS use was reported in 14.5% of infants and 2.3% of 1–5-year-old children. A significant relationship was observed between lower child age, higher maternal education and high family income with CSS use. The main reasons for CSS none-use were reported as not feeling the need (42%), followed by its high price (22%). Use of CSS was uncommon. The financial concerns and information gap about the essential need for CSS should be considered as priorities for action especially among lower socio-economic groups of society.