Is there income mobility in the Philippines?

Despite a more robust economic performance over the past decade compared with the 1980s and 1990s, growth in average household income is still far below what might be expected given the pace of economic expansion in the Philippines. Inequality of household income has also remained high, which leads to the question: is there income mobility in the Philippines? Using longitudinal data from three years of the redesigned Philippine Family Income and Expenditure Survey (2003, 2006, and 2009) and a variety of analytical tools, we examine the mobility of Filipino household income and show that it is less stagnant than is conventionally perceived. Empirical evidence suggests that significant positive and negative mobility exists; albeit, the two tend to offset each other, contributing to slow household income growth at the aggregate level. In addition, there is some evidence that transitory fluctuations contribute significantly to the observed level of income mobility. Overall, the findings are robust across different analytical tools used in measuring income mobility.     

Impact of International Remittances on Schooling in the Philippines: Does the Relationship to the Household Head Matter?

We study the impact of international remittances on schooling in the Philippines, taking into account the school‐age individual's relationship to the household head. This consideration is important because employment opportunities abroad may be taken at the expense of the quality of child rearing. Our estimation results indicate that there are, indeed, significant negative guardian effects on school attendance and education expenditures when children with overseas parents are looked after by a relative other than a parent or grandparent. However, these negative effects tend to be outweighed by the positive impact of remittance flows from overseas.     

Are capital inflows expansionary or contractionary in the Philippines?

This paper assesses whether gross capital inflows to the Philippines are expansionary or contractionary in view of the model predictions and multi-country empirical analysis of Blanchard, Ostry, Ghosh, and Chamon (BOGC, 2015). We make use of data for the period 1977–2017, and apply both ordinary least squares and vector autoregressive techniques. The results indicate that total gross inflows are expansionary for both output and credit growth. At a more disaggregated level, we find, consistent with BOGC (2015), that non-bond inflows are expansionary. But contrary to BOGC (2015), we find that bond inflows to the Philippines are also expansionary. Using the Philippine case illustrates the importance of country specific factors in characterizing the macroeconomic effects of capital inflows.     

Human Development Potentials and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Developing World

This analysis suggests that the concept of human development potentials has two dimensions: the rights and limits to human development. This conceptual understanding is supported by results from the empirical examination of the relationship between the demands for carbon emissions and the other elements of human development. As human development in the rich countries is close to its potential     

Is there a trade-off between free capital mobility,financial stability and fiscal policy flexibility in the EMU?

The recent dynamics characterizing the Eurozone economy suggest the existence of a new policy trilemma faced by its member countries. According to this policy trilemma, there is a trade-off between free capital mobility, financial stability and fiscal policy flexibility. In this paper, we analyze the foundations of such a trade-off and, based on the data for 11 Eurozone countries, present an empirical investigation on the existence of the trilemma. The results highlight the existence of the trade-off, with some differences between member countries. The existence of this trilemma in the Eurozone provides arguments for implementing centralized financial supervision together with fiscal and monetary reforms that should strengthen the currency union.     

Is there a trade-off between the employment and wages of unskilled African South Africans?

The possible trade-off between employment and wages has characterised most of South Africa’s labour market debates, particularly with regards to decent wages versus unemployment. In this article we explore the relationship between labour market earnings and the level of employment among African birth cohorts using labour force data from 1997 to 2011. We find that the association between an increase in the proportion of unskilled employed in a birth cohort and earnings is mediated by the sector of employment. While some sectors exhibit the expected negative association, there is a robust positive relationship between the first two quartiles of the earnings distribution within birth cohorts and the proportion of the birth cohort who are employed in unskilled occupations in the manufacturing and trade sectors. Because a range of market forces determine this relationship, further research is needed to unpack the reasons for such varied outcomes in order to better inform the debates on labour market interventions like the proposed National Minimum Wage and to appreciate the potential impact of such policy interventions on wages and employment.     

Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?

The People's Bank of China (PBC) now frequently uses communication as a policy tool. Whether its words are consistent with its deeds is important for the public to understand the PBC's complex behavior. In this paper, we employ a supervised learning model to construct monetary policy (MP) and economic outlook (EC) communication indices based on the outlook section of quarterly China Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs). We find that the PBC not only adjusts its interventions according to the corresponding economic situation, but also takes into account the information released in the previous outlook section, which indicates its consistency in words and deeds. Using a time-varying parameter model, we further find that the PBC's consistency of words and deeds has made progress over time. The PBC tends to be more consistent in words and deeds under higher uncertainty, and the improvement of such consistency can significantly decrease disagreement about inflation expectations. An additional analysis shows that the full text of MPRs can help predict future monetary policies on a longer time horizon.     

Do International Sanctions Reduce Household and Government Consumption in Developing Countries?

This paper uses a panel of 30 developing countries over the 1996-2015 period to study the effect that international sanctions have on household and government consumption in target countries. I use a broad set of sanctions covering different aspects of sanctions. The panel model estimates show that sanctions have heterogeneous effect on household and government consumption. Household consumption responds significantly negative to noneconomic sanctions. Government consumption, in contrast, is negatively associated with intensity of sanctions, economic sanctions, plurilaterial sanctions, EU sanctions and U.S. sanctions. Disaggregating government consumption reveals that the intensity of sanctions increases government expenditure on subsidies and transfers, while government expenditure on goods and services is not correlated with sanctions. With regard to health outcomes, there is no clear evidence that sanctions are significantly associated with either life expectancy or infant mortality in target countries.     

Gone with the wind? Emissions of neighboring coal-fired power plants and local public health in China

Based on a nationwide representative county-level dataset from China, this article empirically examines the spillover effects of air pollution from neighboring coal-fired power plants on local mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. We combine data on power plants' industrial output with information on wind direction and speed to proxy for air pollution, and find that air pollution from neighboring power plants indeed has significant negative effects on local public health. The resulting treatment costs are also enormous. Our findings shed light on the necessity of intergovernmental cooperation in environmental governance.     

What about the race between education and technology in the Global South? Comparing skill premiums in colonial Africa and Asia

Historical research on the race between education and technology has focused on the West but barely touched upon ‘the rest’. A new occupational wage database for 50 African and Asian economies allows us to compare long-run patterns in skill premiums across the colonial and post-colonial eras (c. 1870–2010). Our data reveal three major patterns. First, skilled labour was considerably more expensive in colonial Africa and Asia than in pre-industrial Europe. Second, skill premiums were distinctly higher in Africa than in Asia. Third, in both regions, skill premiums fell dramatically over the course of the twentieth century, ultimately converging to levels long observed in the West. Our paper takes a first step to explain both the origins of the Africa–Asia gap and the drivers of global skill premium convergence, paying special attention to the colonial context that shaped demand, supply, and labour market institutions.     

Is the relationship between foreign direct investment and trade different across developed and developing countries? Evidence from Korea

Empirical studies that pool data from developed and developing countries may conflate the separate roles played. The pooled coefficient estimates may significantly misrepresent the true relationships. This paper analyses the impact of outward and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Korea and developed and developing countries on Korean exports in 12 manufacturing sectors over the 1988–2006 period. The evidence suggests that the outward FDI to developing countries is likely to increase Korean exports to those countries than FDI to developed countries likely to increase exports to developed countries. Thus, pooling investment flows can lead to incorrect inferences.     

Analysis on Chinese Inequity in Health between the Urban and the Rural

Firstly the paper introduces the concept of the inequity in health, the method of measurement of inequity in health which is usually used to measure the inequity of income. Then we statistically describe the inequity in health between the urban and the rural in China, and analyze the correlative of the variety of income allocation and the variety of inequity in health.     

Status and mortality: Is there a Whitehall effect in the United States?

The influential Whitehall studies found that top-ranking civil servants in Britain experienced lower mortality than civil servants below them in the organizational hierarchy due to differential exposure to workplace stress. I test for a Whitehall effect in the United States using a 1930 cohort of white-collar employees at a leading firm – General Electric (GE). All had access to a corporate health and welfare program during a critical period associated with the health transition. I measure status using position in the managerial hierarchy, attendance at prestigious management training camps and promotions, none of which is associated with a Whitehall-like rank-mortality gradient. Instead, senior managers and executives experienced a 3–5-year decrease in lifespan relative to those in lower levels, with the largest mortality penalty experienced by individuals in the second level of the hierarchy. I discuss generalizability and potential explanations for this reversal of the Whitehall phenomenon using additional data on the status and lifespan of top business executives and US senators.     

Birth order and intergenerational income mobility in Japan: Is the first-born child different?

This study examines how birth order affects intergenerational income mobility (IGM) in Japan, focusing on the difference in IGM between firstborn and later-born children. The elasticities of sons’ income with respect to fathers’ income are separately estimated for sons who are firstborn and sons who are later born by family size using a two-sample, two-stage least squares approach. For sons born in 1926–1981, this study finds that in families with four or more children, intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) for firstborn sons is substantially and significantly higher than that for later-born sons. However, no significant birth order effects are found in households with two or three children.     

When Is the Averaging Effect Present in Auditor Judgments?

Auditing standards task auditors with collecting sufficient appropriate evidence to form audit judgments. Yet, cognitive psychology documents a robust finding in which people evaluate a bundle of relevant, directionally consistent evidence as though averaging the strength of the components. In consequence, a bundle of evidence may be viewed as weaker evidence than the bundle's strongest evidence item alone. We experimentally examine whether this averaging effect occurs in an audit context, and we test a potential moderator. In three independent mini-cases, we ask auditor participants to make judgments about going concern, internal controls, and fraud risk. We present auditors with unfavorable audit evidence relevant to each judgment, manipulating whether we present a single strong evidence item or bundle it with a weaker evidence item. We also manipulate the auditor's initial impression of the client's state. We find that experienced auditors succumb to the averaging effect, making more strongly unfavorable judgments in response to the single evidence item than the bundle, and that this bias is reduced when the observed evidence is inconsistent with the auditor's initial impression. We interpret our results as consistent with the dual-processing theory of cognition.     

Is Foreign Technological Advance Harmful in the Melitz Model?

Foreign technological advance unambiguously reduces home welfare in a popular variant of the Melitz (Econometrica 71(6):1695–1725, 2003) model that assumes the presence of a costlessly traded homogeneous (outside) good (Demidova in Int Econ Rev 49(4):1437–1462, 2008). The present paper shows that this result is sensitive to the presence of the outside good and is, in fact, reversed in its absence: foreign technological advance always improves home welfare in the Melitz model without the outside good. Improvement in home welfare occurs via changes in the numbers and prices of domestic and imported varieties. For quantitative analysis of welfare effects, we calibrate an international trade model for the United States and its major trading partners. US is found to gain less from foreign technological improvements than its trading partners from US improvements. In either case, the magnitude of gains is modest.     

How Important Is Trade and Foreign Ownership in Closing the Technology Gap? Evidence from Estonia and Slovenia

This paper focuses on the impact that the different methods of privatization implemented in Estonia and Slovenia might have had on the pattern of technology transfer to domestic firms through either FDI or international trade. We develop an empirical model that looks at three aspects of the problem: the importance of direct and indirect effects of FDI; the role of local absorptive capacity; and the role of trade in technology transfer. The study finds that the method of privatization does influence the way a firm obtains technology from abroad: Estonia, which attracted a considerable amount of FDI through its privatization programme, used this channel to gain direct access to global markets for technology, while Slovenia discouraged sales of state enterprises to multinational firms and inclined domestic firms to use trade flows to gain access to these markets. JEL no. D24, F14     

Actuality Analysis of the Development of Industry Association in China and its Countermeasures

With China＇s entry into WTO and the globalization of the market economy, changing the old management mode of administration of Chinese employer＇s organization as soon as possible and building the function mode of modem market mechanism have already, become the urgent task of China＇s economic reform and development. Based on the current situation of the development of industry association in China, this paper lists the problems and difficulties faced in the development of employer＇s organization at present and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions by analyzing the problems.