中国政府规模如何影响福利提高的研究——基于中国1980—2006年数据的检验

如何提高政府规模的福利绩效是极具挑战性的问题，政府支出用于不同的项目对福利的影响和提升作用是不同的。通过研究中国政府投模影响福利的结构路径和传导路径，可以得知：如果侧重于人力资本、社会资本等的投资，就可以获得双重效果，从而以较小的政府规模获得较大的福利效果。     

广西民生性支出对城乡居民消费的异质效应研究

文章利用广西1981—2013年的时间序列数据对民生性支出及结构对城乡居民消费的异质效应进行实证研究,结果表明：民生性支出对农村居民消费的挤入效应大于对城镇居民消费的挤出效应;教育、科技、医疗卫生和社会保障支出挤入城镇居民消费,文化支出挤占城镇居民消费;科技、医疗卫生和社会保障支出挤入农村居民消费,而教育和文化支出挤占农村居民消费;教育和医疗支出对农村居民消费的替代效应不及对城镇居民消费的互补效应,科技和社会保障支出对农村居民消费的引致作用均大于城镇居民,文化支出对城镇居民和农村居民消费的替代效应相差不大;收入能有效地拉动内需。基于此,广西民生性支出应向农村倾斜,加大对农村的财政投资力度,以改善消费环境,促进农村居民消费的增长。除此之外,还应提升农村居民的收入水平,以缩小城乡居民消费的差距。     

How low spending control harms consumers

Self-control is a critical aspect of consumer behavior that has wide-ranging implications for individual and societal welfare. The present research builds upon previous work regarding consumer spending self-control by examining the financial, decision making, social, and psychological consequences of low consumer spending self-control. Further, the relationship between consumer spending self-control and general self-control is explored, contributing to a greater understanding of how more general traits translate into spending-related outcomes. This research includes investigations of allocations to retirement accounts, responses to credit limits, resource depletion effects from repeated decision making, and the potential for broader negative social and psychological consequences from low consumer spending self-control.     

Consumer spending self-control effectiveness and outcome elaboration prompts

Decision making related to finances is of significant importance. A major factor underlying financial decision making involves differences in consumers?? spending self-control (CSSC). We conceptualize CSSC as an individual difference, distinct from general self-control, develop a parsimonious measure to assess it, and demonstrate important related consequences and behaviors. Further, we examine how underlying differences in CSSC impact the effectiveness of a self-control strategy that has recently received attention in public policy legislation??enhancing consumers?? awareness of the future consequences of present behavior through the provision of outcome elaboration prompts. Results from our studies suggest that outcome elaboration prompts (that is, external stimuli used to encourage consumers to consider the future outcomes of their present decisions) differentially impact consumers?? self-control effectiveness depending on their inherent CSSC. Specifically, the presence of outcome elaboration prompts enhances self-control for low CSSC consumers, but does not affect the choices of high CSSC consumers. Furthermore, we provide direct evidence that it is a differential focus on future outcomes that drives the distinct responses of high- versus low-CSSC consumers to the provision of outcome elaboration prompts.     

Effect of analysts’ earnings pressure on marketing spending and stock market performance

Despite the clearly visible effects of analysts’ pressures on C-level executives in the popular press, there is limited evidence on their effects on marketing spending decisions. This study asks two questions. First, how do analysts’ pressures affect firms’ short-term marketing spending decisions? Based on a sample of 2706 firms during 1987–2009 compiled from Institutional Brokers Earning System, COMPUSTAT, and CRSP databases we find that firms cut marketing spending. Second, more importantly, we ask if firms which remained more committed in the past to marketing spending under analysts’ pressures have higher longer-term stock market performance. We find that the stock market performance of firms more committed to marketing spending under past periods of analysts’ pressures is higher. The findings are replicated for R&D spending and are robust across measures, controls, and methodologies. Consideration of two industry-based moderators, R&D spending and revenue growth, and one firm-based moderator, whether the firm is among the industry’s top four market share or other lower share firms, reveals that the findings are stronger for high R&D and growth industries and lower market share firms. One key implication is that top executives respond to analysts’ pressures by cutting marketing spending in the short term; however, if they can resist these pressures, longer-term stock market performance is higher.     

对外开放对我国社会性支出的挤出挤入效应研究

文章基于动态面板模型研究了对外开放度对我国民生建设中社会性支出的挤出挤入效应。实证研究结果表明,在全国范围及沿海地区,贸易开放对社会性支出存在挤出效应,而金融开放对内陆地区存在挤入效应。社会性支出主要由教育支出、医疗支出和社会保障支出三项构成,分项研究表明,对外开放对三者的作用也存在差异。为了加快我国民生建设,需要有计划地增加财政社会性支出资金,在提高社会性支出资金利用效率的同时提高内陆地区的开放水平,以增强经济基础。     

社会福利支出、人力资本与中国经济增长——基于省级面板数据的研究

促进社会公平的社会福利开支增长是否可以同时促进经济增长,已有文献提出正、反两方面不同的看法。文章利用我国1996年～2009年31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,以政府社会福利支出占GDP之比为解释变量,以人力资本和经济增长为被解释变量,构建联立方程组模型进行研究。发现人力资本是社会福利支出影响经济增长的重要中介变量。社会福利支出通过增加人力资本积累促进经济增长的"间接效应",大大高于社会福利支出直接促进经济增长的"直接效应"。因此,在财政资源有限的情况下,我国政府在增加社会福利支出时,应重点投向提高国民教育程度、改善生产效率和增进国民健康等有助于经济增长的方向,这将可以实现同时兼顾效率和公平的"双赢"结果。     

“省直管县”弱化了资源的城市偏向性配置吗?———财政转移支付视角简

中国长期存在的“城乡二元分治”制度导致资源配置呈现明显的城市偏向特征,加剧了城乡不平等,也不利于社会和谐。基于财政转移支付的视角,文章研究发现,“省直管县”改革通过以下两个机制扭转了资源的城市偏向性配置：第一,“省直管县”改革提高了县乡经济发展激励,增加了县乡公共服务支出责任并提高了县级地区资金匹配能力,有利于县乡在既有分配规则下获取更多的财政转移支付。第二,“省直管县”改善了基层政府的财政地位,减少了上级政府的资金截留;同时使县辖区公共需求向上的传递渠道更加顺畅,从外部环境上为其获得更多的财政转移支付创造了条件。此外,多维度的检验也为深入了解财政转移支付分配规则的缺陷以及如何增进财政转移支付分配的公平性提供了经验证据。     

论社会福利视角下我国社会政策目标的转型与重塑

发展的首要目的是提高人们的福利水平。而传统型社会政策忽视了社会福利的政治前提,忽视了社会政策的民主化,只把提供福利当作社会政策的目标,这显然违背了发展的宗旨。随着科学发展观的提出和以自由为核心的发展理论的影响,减少贫困、社会保护、增强生存能力以及对抗社会排斥都已经成为社会政策的合理目标。以问题为导向、以协调发展和全面发展为目标的发展型社会政策以其增加人的可行能力为目的,使社会政策成为人的全面发展的重要工具,促进了"经济效益"、"社会公平"和"个人自由"这三样东西的有机结合,成为社会政策未来的发展方向。     

重视社会信用体系建设——对金融危机的必要反思

反思金融危机需要重视社会信用体系建设。信用是一种十分重要的社会资本,信心要以信用为基础,信用被亵渎会带来可怕的经济和社会后果,正确的财富观是信用体系的核心。要历史地看待斯密“经济人”与“道德人”的设定。我国信用体系滞后已经成为“瓶颈”问题,要加快形成以道德为支撑、产权为基础、法律为保障的社会信用制度,积极推进“企业公民”建设。     

经验政治经济学视角下的宏观经济变动理论

主流经济学在研究宏观经济变动的内在机制时，政治制度及其演变的影响通常被忽略或未被充分考虑。有鉴于此，经验政治经济学在主流经济学的基础上，加入政治制度变量，以理解现实世界中各种政治制度的运作与演变对宏观经济变动的内在影响。经验政治经济学的研究领域几乎涉及宏观经济的每一个重要领域，也取得了丰硕的成果。本文回顾了经验政治经济学在经济周期、公共支出规模、公共支出组合和社会福利支出等重要宏观经济问题上的主要研究与成果。     

Wily welfare capitalist: Werner von Siemens and the pension plan

The German firm of Siemens and Halske introduced many enterprising features of what later came to be known as welfare capitalism in the mid-nineteenth century. Profit sharing, annual bonuses, a pension fund, a reduction in work hours, and an annual party were all means to ensure a productive, trouble-free workforce. We investigate the reasons why Siemens and Halske introduced this internal welfare system. We focus on the by-far most expensive part of the welfare system: the pension fund introduced in 1872, more than a decade before the nationwide social security system was implemented in Germany. We find that the adoption of the internal welfare system increased labor productivity, and in addition discouraged workers from striking. We estimate that the company’s gains due to strike prevention and higher productivity were at least as high as the cost of the pension fund. This suggests that (1) the introduction of a pension fund is not inconsistent with simple profit maximizing behavior on the firm’s side and (2) increased labor unionization induced firms to introduce subjective components of workers’ remuneration packages.     

PFI模式与基础设施供给

传统观念认为 ,基础设施服务的供给是政府一个很重要的职能。但是近年来 ,随着实践和理论的发展 ,这种观念开始发生变化。人们开始探索新的基础设施服务供给模式并取得了良好的效果 ,PFI模式主是其中最具代表性的一种。对目前基础设施服务供给的现行模式进行了分析 ,并阐述了英国用以解决基础设施服务供应所采用FPI模式。提出了借鉴英国PFI模式发展我国基础设施产业的政策建议。     

MQS对社会福利和市场结构的影响

一般文献通常假设一国收入水平为均匀分配,且市场完全覆盖,以此分析MQS对社会福利的影响,通常认为MQS会降低一国社会福利。通过拓展一国收入水平呈均匀分配的假设,且假定市场不完全覆盖,以一高收入国和一低收入国为对比,探讨MQS对社会福利以及产业结构的影响。研究发现,MQS对社会福利的影响和一国的富裕程度有关。如果一国收入水平较高,MQS的存在通常会降低其社会福利,MQS数值越大,其社会福利损失越大;反之,如果一国收入水平较低,则MQS通常会提高其社会福利,MQS数值越大,社会福利提升越大。同时,MQS的存在会扩大厂商市场覆盖面,但会降低其利润。较高的MQS可能导致一家厂商退出市场,形成独占市场结构。     

进一步完善河北省社会保障筹资机制的探讨

河北省企业欠缴养老基金情况严重,社会保障基金收支形势很不乐观,因此应借鉴国外发达国家的经验,改革和完善社会保障基金的筹集机制。可在开征社会保障税之前,作为过渡实现由地方税务机关统一征收 社会保险费,最终开征社会保障税,以推进国企改革和社会的安定。     

Modeling the effects of dynamic group influence on shopper zone choice,purchase conversion,and spending

In many retail contexts, social interaction plays an important role in the shopping process. We propose a three-stage dynamic linear model that captures the influence of group discussion on shopper behavior within a hierarchical Bayes framework. The model is tested using a video tracking and transaction dataset from a specialty apparel store. The research reveals that group conversations have a significant impact on the shopper’s department or “zone” choice, purchase likelihood, and spending over time. This group influence is magnified by the size of the group (particularly for zone penetration and purchase conversion), and is also moderated by group composition and cohesiveness. The conversations of mixed-age groups and groups who stay together while shopping have a significant influence on shopper behavior across all three stages, while discussions by adult groups exhibit a marginal carryover effect for purchase conversion. When shoppers have repeated discussions in a specific department, they are more likely to return to and buy from this department, while the cumulative number of discussions in the store drives higher spending levels. We also observe that group shoppers visit more departments than their solo counterparts; and mixed-age groups and solo shoppers are more likely to buy than adults-only or teen groups. This study has important implications for how retailers manage shopper engagement and group interaction in their stores.     

南北贸易、产权维护不对称与发展中国家生态资源贫瘠化

在Brander and Taylor (1997)可再生资源标准模型基础上,引入南北两国不对称的产权维护选择,考察南北贸易对两国生态资源存量变化的影响。结果表明:如果两国政府同属于资源保护的弱势政府,南方国家资源品的国内相对价格将低于北方国家,南方国家出口资源品并进口制成品,南方国家短期福利水平下降,北方国家短期福利水平上升。如果两国政府同属于资源保护的强势政府,相对价格排序、贸易模式以及短期福利变化发生逆转。在任何情况下,南方国家产权维护程度低于北方国家,唯一地决定贸易将导致南方国家生态资源存量逐渐损耗,且长期福利水平下降;北方国家生态资源存量不断增加,且长期福利水平上升。     

社会保障支出的就业效应：基于VAR模型的实证分析

本文利用1978—2009年的时间序列数据,通过建立向量自回归模型（VAR）对社会保障支出与就业之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,社会保障支出与就业之间存在长期协整关系,两者互为因果;脉冲响应分析结果进一步表明,社会保障支出的增加对就业增长有长期显著的促进作用,社会保障支出每增加1%,就业增长0.041%。     

混合寡头竞争、污染物排放与环境税

通过建立一个混合双寡头市场竞争模型,借以考察在国家征收环境税的条件下,国有企业的私有化程度对污染物排放、社会福利以及环境税率的影响。研究表明:当国有企业的私有化程度较低时,继续私有化将会导致污染物排放的增加和社会福利的增加;当国有企业的私有化程度较高时,继续私有化将会导致污染物排放的降低和社会福利的下降;同时,环境税则随着国有企业私有化程度的提高,始终保持下降趋势。     

河南省城乡居民储蓄影响因素实证分析

影响河南省城乡居民储蓄的因素主要有居民收入水平、利率水平、物价水平、房地产投资情况、金融投资情况、预防性动机等。采用多元线性回归分析的方法对影响河南省城镇居民储蓄额和农村居民储蓄额的因素进行回归分析,测度了各因素的影响程序,得出了相应的模型。从模型来看,为进一步合理利用居民储蓄,促进储蓄向投资和消费的转化,应该从以下方面着手:不能单纯依赖利率政策,完善各项社会福利制度,合理调控房地产市场,发展和完善投资市场。