On economic causes of civil war

We investigate whether civil wars have economic causes. Themodel is based on utility theory, rebels will conduct a civilwar if the perceived benefits outweigh the costs of rebellion.Using probit and tobit models the propositions are tested empirically.Four variables, initial income, ethno-linguistic fractionalisation,the amount of natural resources, and initial population sizeare significant and strong determinants of the duration andthe probability of civil wars. One important finding is thatthe relationship between civil wars and ethnic diversity isnon-monotoniq highly fractionalised societies have no greaterrisk of experiencing a civil war than homogenous ones.     

Military service and economic mobility: Evidence from the American civil war

How did geographic and occupational mobility after the Civil War differ between Union Army veterans and nonveterans? By 1880, Union veterans were more likely to migrate to a different state or region than nonveterans. The higher geographic mobility of veterans is likely attributable to their experience of traveling away from their hometowns while in service. Union veterans who held unskilled jobs prior to enlistment were more likely to move up to white-collar or farming jobs by 1880 than unskilled nonveterans. In contrast, unskilled veterans were less likely to become artisans than nonveterans. The differences in occupational mobility by veteran status might be explained by the effects of military experiences such as learning from comrades in the company.     

Greed and grievance in civil war

We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data setof wars during 1960–99. Rebellion may be explained byatypically severe grievances, such as high inequality, a lackof political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society.Alternatively, it might be explained by atypical opportunitiesfor building a rebel organization. While it is difficult tofind proxies for grievances and opportunities, we find thatpolitical and social variables that are most obviously relatedto grievances have little explanatory power. By contrast, economicvariables, which could proxy some grievances but are perhapsmore obviously related to the viability of rebellion, provideconsiderably more explanatory power.     

The economic consequences of the peace

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The economic consequences of the peaceJ. M. Keynes, Londen, Mac Millan and Co., 279 bladz

     

The Franco‐German trade puzzle: an analysis of the economic consequences of the Franco‐Prussian war1

When the Franco‐German trade relationship is viewed from a long‐term perspective, the conventional view that trade ties were rather good before 1914 becomes doubtful. In fact, trade statistics point to the absolute and relative decline in trade flows between the two countries after the Franco‐Prussian war of 1870–1. This postwar episode of Franco‐German trade history is far from incidental. On the basis of a comprehensive study of Franco‐German trade by product, this article reveals a complete restructuring of French trade with Germany after the conflict and invites a new analysis of its economic consequences.     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka

We propose a theoretical and econometric framework to evaluate the impact of war on economic growth of a developing country with an open economy. The theoretical framework encompasses both the neoclassical and endogenous growth models. We test this framework using Sri Lankan data. The war had significant and negative effects both in the short and long-run (annual average of 9% of GDP). High returns from investment in physical capital did not translate in sizable positive externalities. Only short-run significant effects of openness on growth are found. Inconsistent politically driven policies towards openness are the likely reason.     

The economic consequences of Dutch politics

Review article of Centraal Planbureau,Vijf verkiezingsprogramma's: Economische gevolgen van voorgenomen beleid (Five Electrion Programmes: Economic Consequences of Intended Policies; in Dutch), SDU, Den Haag, 1994. Pp. 220     

Causes and consequences of civil strife: micro-level evidence from Uganda

To bridge the gap between case studies and highly aggregatecross-country analyses of civil unrest, we use data from Ugandato explore determinants of civil strife (as contrasted to theftand physical violence) at the community level, as well as thepotentially differential impact of these variables on investmentand non-agricultural enterprise formation at the household level.We find that distance from infrastructure (a proxy for scarcityof economic opportunities and government investment), assetinequality (social tension), presence of cash crops (expropriablewealth), and lower levels of human capital (ability to takeadvantage of opportunities in the ‘regular’ economy)all increase the propensity for civil strife. Furthermore, civilstrife, in marked contrast to violence and theft, reduces investmentand non-agricultural enterprise startups.     

探究证券市场中的民事赔偿

完备的证券市场法律制度，不仅可以使侵权行为人受到行政或者刑事责任制裁，而且可以通过追究侵权行为人民事赔偿责任，有效地规范市场参与人的行为，充分保护投资人的合法权益，保障证券市场健康运行，增强证券市场的投资信心。     

Reformist programmes in the planning for post-war economic policy during world war ii

Abstract

Extract

The Great Depression of 1929–33 saw the beginnings of a revolution in the history of economic policy formation in the West. When at the outset of the depression, the ‘Old Economic Policy’ was still seen to be in operation, an ever-increasing resistance arose against the consequent unemployment and indeed against the very notion of the inevitability of depression. For the economic policy, this meant a support for an active fiscal policy, as against the almost complete dominance of monetary means. During the 1930s, however, support for the ‘New Economic Policy’ was not widespread, and most of the instances of its application remained incomplete. The most resolute use of the new economic policy was made in Sweden by the Social Democratic government from 1932. The new economics was also strongly advocated by the British Liberal Party, which, however, hardly had any influence. The best known example of all is that enshrined in the New Deal of the Roosevelt administration.     

论民间融资的法律规制

民间融资在推动经济增长,特别是在缓解中小企业融资难,促进中小企业发展方面发挥了积极作用,但是,近几年,民间融资的无序发展引发了大量负面影响。我国目前尚未有一部法律明确民间融资行为的法律地位。建立和完善符合我国国情的民间融资法律体系,是规范发展民间融资的制度保障,也是当前促使民间融资健康有序发展的迫切需要。     

会计稳健性的定义及其经济后果研究述评

会计稳健性是国内外重要的会计惯例,但却一直备受争议,监管者曾一度想推行中立的会计政策,试图降低稳健性对会计实务的影响。公允价值计量就是在这种环境下得到了广泛应用。然而,2008年金融危机的暴发将公允价值计量推到了风口浪尖,稳健性又重新受到关注,会计稳健性对实务究竟具有什么意义?本文从有条件稳健性和无条件稳健性两方面对会计稳健性的定义进行了阐述,在此基础之上,分别从融资和投资角度总结了稳健性经济后果的经验证据,分析了会计稳健性对现实经济活动的意义,试图为监管者和政策制定者的政策制定提供方向。     

The economic causes and consequences of social instability in China

This paper provides a survey of the economic literature relevant to social instability in China and moulds it into an argument. The objective is to offer a fresh view of economic policy and performance through the lens of the threat posed by social instability. This is a concept that economists rarely analyse, and yet it can lurk behind much economic policy-making. China's leadership has often publicly expressed its concern to avoid ‘social instability’. It is viewed as a threat both to the political order and to the continued rapid growth of the economy. This threat to growth in turn endangers the maintenance of social stability. The paper examines the likely economic determinants of social instability, using both surveys and other evidence. After discussing the determinants of China's rapid growth, the paper goes on to examine the likely mechanisms by which social instability can affect the growth rate. There is a case for more research on the role of social instability in the economic development process.     

对公务员个体理性特征的探讨

没有哪一位经济学家会否认国家或政府在现代经济生活中的积极作用。这是因为他们认识到，即便在理想的市场经济中，市场制度也无法自行解决某些至关重要的经济问题，更何况在现实的市场经济中。因此，我们需要政府采取行动，建立一个公正而有效率的法律体制；运用宏观经济政策来稳定经济，对付失业和通货膨胀；运用再分配政策以改变市场对“货币选票的随意分配”的结果，让那些最需要的穷人也能过上较好的生活。特别是，对因为外部性、公共物品、垄断的存在而产生的市场失灵，政府更有责任予以纠正之。