Urban Economic Development and Restorative Justice: Exploring the Relationship Between Creativity and Crime Control

This article examines the relationship between local economic development and a new approach to the problem of crime–i.e., ‘restorative justice.’ The latter concept is introduced and briefly explored, followed by a short review of Richard Florida's recently proposed theory of creative-class economic development. Against the backdrop of these theoretical innovations, an empirical question that arises is whether the specific character of creative-class economic growth enhances the probability that a given city will adopt a restorative justice paradigm in its efforts to reduce crime. Addressing this question using logistic regression analysis, the article provides preliminary evidence that creative-class economic development encourages experimentation with innovative approaches to social problems such as crime. Missouri Western State University—U.S.A. This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the 58th International Atlantic Economic Conference in Chicago, Illinois, October 8, 2004.     

Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.

A generalized multi-country endogenous growth model

The transitional dynamics of open-economy endogenous growth models are largely unexplored. The present paper fills this gap in the literature. By applying the familiar Travis–Dixit–Norman (Dixit and Norman, Theory of International Trade, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1980) approach to a general class of growth models, it provides original results on the transitional dynamics of the multi-country open-economy versions of several prominent special cases, including the models of Romer (J Polit Econ, 94:1002–1037, 1986; J Polit Econ 98:S71–S102, 1990), Lucas (J Monet Econ, 22:3–42, 1988), Grossman and Helpman (Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991a, Chaps. 3 and 4; Rev Econ Stud 58:43–61, 1991b), Jones (J Polit Econ, 103:759–784, 1995a), and Segerstrom (Am Econ Rev, 88:1290–1310, 1998). This approach also shows that, in the class of models considered, the question of whether or not international economic integration accelerates growth in the long run is equivalent to the question of whether or not scale effects prevail.      

THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This study investigates the hypothesis that HIV/AIDS epidemic slows down the pace of economic growth. We examine 41 Sub‐Saharan African countries by using the empirical growth equation in an augmented Solow model in which health capital serves as a determinant of human capital. Econometric analysis is based on panel data and covers the period 1997‐2005. We control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with HIV prevalence that might also influence economic growth. As a key result we prove that the epidemic has a significant negative effect on the growth rate of per capita GDP in Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Social Returns to Education: Macro-Evidence

Summary This paper presents new evidence on the social returns to education within a macroeconomic growth regression framework. I use improved schooling data and a macro version of the Mincer relationship between education and wages for individual workers. The results suggest that an increase by one year of the average education level of the labor force would increase labor productivity by 7–10% in the short run and by 11–15% in the long run. Some evidence is found for the presence of dynamic human capital spillovers: the human capital stock increases prospective economic growth. The empirical results are used to quantify the macroeconomic impact of skill upgrading as agreed upon in the European Union’s Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs. Finally, the paper discusses discrepancies between private and social returns to education. I would like to thank two referees, Dinand Webbink, Peter Wobst, and participants of the brown bag lunch seminar series at the Enterprise and Industry Directorate-General of the European Commission for helpful comments. Views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the European Commission or the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.     

重庆市创新型人才对经济发展贡献率研究

人才是创新驱动的关键因素,创新型人才作为重要的生产因素,其规模和质量决定了城市发展的核心竞争力,对城市经济发展有着重要的影响。通过柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,以重庆地区为研究对象计算2008—2018年创新型人才对经济发展的贡献率,并利用SPSS软件进行线性回归。结果表明,对于重庆地区来说,创新型人才对经济增长的贡献率不高,影响经济增长的主要因素是物力资本投入。重庆要在西部率先建成有核心竞争力的创新型城市,必须加快建设一支适应重庆经济社会发展需要的创新型人才队伍。     

中国行政改革与经济发展之间的相互影响

改革开放初期,行政改革所带来的制度变迁有力地促进了中国经济的增长,但随着中国经济的增长,行政改革却举步维艰。近年来在行政改革滞后的情况下中国经济依然保持了高速的增长,经济增长与行政改革的滞后形成了强烈的落差。这种落差使得中国的行政改革滞后与经济增长之间形成了一种畸形的关系。行政改革滞后所带来的各种社会问题需要维持高速的经济增长来解决,而经济的增长则不断强化现有的制度安排,使得行政改革的阻力增大。打破行政改革滞后与经济增长之间的依赖关系迫切需要新的制度创新。     

我国短期经济增长动力研究——基于经济增长差分模型

根据国民收入理论,从投入产出与需求消耗对经济增长的影响出发,以收入决定理论为基础,建立起短期经济增长差分模型,用来帮助一个国家根据短期经济目标合理地制定经济调控战略和实现路径,促进短期经济目标的实现。在此基础上对我国经济增长动力进行实证分析,提出我国现阶段经济增长存在的主要问题和解决方案。     

The optimal exchange rate regime for a small country

This paper examines the welfare comparisons between a freely floating, a managed floating, and a pegged exchange rate regime. We compare the expected loss under these regimes by modifying and generalizing Hamada’s (2002) model to accommodate intervention policy. We consider the de jure and de facto classifications, where the former is defined by the officially stated intentions of the monetary authorities, while the latter is based on the actually observed behavior of the nominal exchange rate. We first examine the exchange rate regimes from the central bank’s policy stance and the actual exchange rate policy. Next we assume that the regime which the private sector perceives according to an official announcement may be different from the one adopted actually by the central bank. We examine nine combinations of the de jure and de facto regimes. We interpret that, whenever they are different, there is informational friction between the central bank and the private sector. We show that the welfare level of a small country under freely floating is no less than that under other regimes, and that with some restrictive conditions, the de facto pegged or de facto managed floating is close to freely floating. This partly explains “Fear of floating” and “Fear of pegging”.     

我国税收超高速增长与经济增长分析(1994-2005)

2006年我国税收收入达到了37636.3亿元(不包括关税、耕地占用税和契税),比2005年增收6770.3亿元,增长21.9%。自1997年以来,我国税收一致保持超高速增长,平均年增长在20%以上。经济增长和价格因素对税收收入具有99.4%的解释力度,说明我国税制设计合理,具有较好的弹性,同时也说明了我国税收收入与经济的发展是协调一致关系。不存在有些学者所担心的税收是非正常高速增长,进而也就不存在税收收入高速增长压制经济发展的状况。     

On export performance and export elasticities: A macroeconomic approach

Summary In many studies far-reaching conclusions with regard to competitiveness are based upon an export price elasticity that results from only estimating an equation for the volume of exports. The aim of this article is to show with the aid of a macroeconomic model that the influence of competitiveness is overestimated in this way. This conclusion cannot be based on the necessity to introduce the export structure alongside world trade as a regressor in the export equation. The overestimation is a result offeedback mechanisms, greatly resulting from an endogenous exchange rate, which largely neutralize the initial export price effect. Financial support from the Netherlands organisation for the advancement of pure research (ZWO), no. 46–65, is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank Prof. S.K. Kuipers for helpful comments and Martin O. Nijkamp and Vincent C.A. Polanen Petel for computational assistance.     

后世博时期促进上海经济长效增长的地方税研究

文章分别从需求与产业两个视角对影响后世博时期上海经济长效增长的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)消费需求是直接带动上海经济增长的主力军;(2)产业结构优化调整与经济增长存在长期稳定关系;(3)产业结构优化调整是促进上海经济增长的重要原因.在此实证结论的支持下,文章提出运用税收政策引导和支持新兴产业发展、加快地方税体系建设、完善和实施有利于消费结构升级的财税政策等建议,以促进上海市经济长效增长.     

New borders: Evidence from the former Soviet Union

New Borders: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union. — We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating a gravity equation on 1987–1996 trade between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded nearly twice as much with each other as with republics in the reform period (1994–1996). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987–1990). Our results suggest that the bias towards domestic trade in the reform period is primarily a result of tariffs. We also find that past linkages, such as infrastructure, production and consumption chains, and business networks, have limited the reorientation of trade.     

我国城镇化与经济增长的非线性关系分析——基于PSTR模型

文章基于我国30个省、市、自治区1990-2012年的面板数据,采用面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型研究了我国城镇化与经济增长间的非线性关系;选取滞后城镇化率、产业结构和能源消费作为阈值变量,使用工具变量法估计模型,其主要实证研究结果为:除低水平的人均能源消费量情况外,三个非线性模型都显示城镇化和经济增长间的正相关关系;随着城镇化水平的提升,城镇化对经济增长的弹性会下降,而随着第三产业比重和人均能源消费量的增加,该弹性会增加;弹性数值随着时间的推移呈现增加趋势,到2010年开始呈现下降趋势。文章最后分析了不同地区弹性系数值的差异情况。     

Real Exchange Rate in China：A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long‐run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply‐side model, the Balassa—Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU-15 over the period 1970–2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 61(1):653–670, 1999; Econom Theory 20(3):597–625, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence, European Central Bank, Working Paper 591, 2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (Econ Lett 97(3):185–190, 2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU-15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970–1991 and 1992–2006).     

Product quality, lender liability, and consumer credit

Under ‘linked credit’ (also known as ‘connectedlending’), the buyer obtains a loan from a lender withthe specific purpose of purchasing a certain product. Creditis arranged directly by the seller, who acts as an intermediaryfor the finance company. Within this form of financing, thelender often accepts a measure of liability for defective products.We show that ‘connected-lender liability’ can workas a signalling device for the reliability of sellers, so asto alleviate the market failure that arises when sellers arebetter informed than consumers about the quality of their products.     

Tactical Coordination in Plurality Electoral Systems

Simple plurality election systems (commonly known as ‘firstpast the post’) are often associated with the dominanceof two political parties. Such systems tend to reward leadingparties with a disproportionately large number of seats (the‘mechanical’ effect) and provoke tactical voting,where voters switch away from trailing parties (the ‘psychological’effect). We view tactical voting as a coordination problem.A group of voters wish to prevent a win by a disliked party(such as the Conservatives in recent UK elections) and mustpartially coordinate behind a single challenger (such as Labouror the Liberal Democrats) in order to do this. Crucially, votershave limited information on the situation within their constituencyand hence there is no common knowledge of the game being played—tacticalvoting is a global game. We show that in this setting, voterswill only partially coordinate. Furthermore, tactical votingexhibits negative feedback—tactical voting by others reducesthe incentive for an individual to vote tactically, since theybecome concerned that they may switch in the wrong direction.We calibrate our model, and apply it to the UK General Electionof 1997. Throughout England, we find that the ‘mechanical’and ‘psychological’ effects tend to offset eachother: tactical voting serves to reverse the Conservative biasthat results from the geographic distribution of preferences.     

Offshore Banking and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of an offshore banking sector on economic growth. For this purpose, we specified a growth equation for the 41 countries that report their external positions to the Bank for International Settlements and evaluated how the size of an offshore banking sector, measured by external assets or liabilities contributed to the countries' per capita income growth. The distinctive features of this paper are that compared to previous studies, we used more comprehensive data and more flexible empirical specifications to investigate the effects of offshore banking. We find that the size of an offshore banking sector and economic growth have a nonlinear relationship, and the growth effect tends to increase as the scale of offshore banking increases.