The technology adoption life cycle attractor: Understanding the dynamics of high-tech markets

Unlike more stable industries, high-tech firms must constantly be in a strategy development phase. These companies are in desperate need of assistance in strategy formulation. This paper introduces a quantitative (rather than subjective) approach to help high-tech firms to understand their position in the technology adoption life cycle using some of the principles and tools of Chaos and Complexity theories. This approach is demonstrated by using data sets of three case studies in the hard drive, microprocessor, and server high-tech industries.     

Non-linearity versus non-normality in real exchange rate dynamics

We distinguish non-normality from non-linearity in G7 real exchange rate dynamics by correcting the critical values of the Kapetanios et al. [Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., Snell, A., 2003. Testing for a unit root in the non-linear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359–379] test for non-normality using the wild bootstrap. Our findings validate non-linear Purchasing Power Parity net of non-normality effects.     

加勒比巨灾风险保险基金的运作及其借鉴

加勒比巨灾风险保险基金(CCRIF)颇具创新特色:是世界上第一个为灾后政府迅速提供短期流动性支持的政府性质的救灾保险基金;是世界上第一个多国参与的区域性巨灾共同体;是世界上第一个选取参数指数为触发条件的共保体。我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,CCRIF的成功运作能够对我国如何建立自然灾害救济基金具有借鉴意义。     

Uncertainty shocks and asymmetric dynamics in Korea: a non-linear approach

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic activity in Korea. For this purpose, a Smooth Transition VAR model is employed to document the state-dependent dynamics of two distinct types of uncertainty shocks, namely, financial market based and news-based. When non-linearity is allowed to play a role in our model, quantitatively very different asymmetric dynamics are observed. Following inflation targeting, the responses tend to be smoother and less pronounced. Our empirical results support the view that the link between uncertainty and macroeconomic activity is clear over both recessions and expansions. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty shocks is more pronounced when economic activity is depressed especially after shocks originate from the financial market, and not from news-based policy uncertainty in Korea.     

Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models

In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the framework of iterated function systems (IFSs) to describe the set of forward equilibria and apply the IFS framework to a one- and a two-dimensional version of the overlapping generations (OLG)-model. We show that if the backward dynamics is chaotic and has a homoclinic orbit (a “snap-back repeller”), the set of forward equilibrium paths converges to a fractal attractor. Forward equilibria may be interpreted as sunspot equilibria, where a random sunspot sequence determines equilibrium selection at each date.     

The optimal neglect of inflation: An alternative interpretation of UK monetary policy during the “Great Moderation”

This paper argues that UK monetary policymakers did not respond to the inflation rate during most of the “Great Moderation” that ran from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. We derive a generalisation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in which inflation is a non-linear function of the output gap and show that the optimal response of the policy rule to inflation depends on the slope of the Phillips curve; if this is flat, manipulation of aggregate demand through monetary policy does not affect inflation and so policymakers cannot affect inflation. We estimate the monetary policy rules implied by a variety of alternative Phillips curves; our preferred model is based on a Phillips curve that is flat when output is close to equilibrium. We find that policy rates do not respond to inflation when the output gap is small, a situation that characterised most of the “Great Moderation” period.     

对建立我国巨灾保险制度的思考

本文首先分析了我国面临的严峻的巨灾风险,在此基础上指出我国巨灾保险制度建设的问题,最后给出相应的建议。     

Mysticism, method and money in the Marx-Hegel dialectic

Economic orthodoxy has but a minimal interest in methodology.Heterodoxy is suspicious of dialectics. As exemplified recentlyin a book by John Rosenthal, even Marxism likes to eschew thenotion of any more than a residual Hegelian influence in Marxand Marxist discourse. Bouncing off Rosenthal's argument, thispaper argues for the legitimacy of a pragmatic post-Hegelianmethod for critical political economy.     

Rhetoric and analogies

The art of rhetoric may be defined as changing other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing them new information. One technique heavily used by rhetoric employs analogies. Using analogies, one may draw the listener's attention to similarities between cases and to re-organize existing information in a way that highlights certain regularities. In this paper we offer two models of analogies, discuss their theoretical equivalence, and show that finding good analogies is a computationally hard problem.     

财政支持农业巨灾风险分散--基于国际经验与现实国情的综合考量

农业巨灾风险分散体系是农业保险可持续发展的保障,财政支持农业巨灾风险分散不可或缺。通过借鉴国际经验和梳理我国“北京模式”、“安徽模式”、“江苏模式”、“浙江模式”的实践经验,揭示出再保险、巨灾风险准备金、风险证券化和政府财政最后支持是其应对农业巨灾风险的共性。进而提出我国财政支持农业巨灾风险分散体系的路径选择,如行政化和市场化相结合,撬动资本市场资金参与;建立与多层次的巨灾分散机制相对应的财政支持体系等,以期为我国财政支持农业巨灾风险分散提供依据和借鉴方法。     

Linear and non-linear price decentralization

Compendious and thorough solutions to the existence of a linear price equilibrium problem, the second welfare theorem, and the limit theorem on the core are provided for exchange economies whose consumption sets are the positive cone of arbitrary ordered Fréchet spaces—dispensing entirely with the assumption that the vector ordering of the commodity space is a lattice. The motivation comes from economic applications showing the need to bring within the scope of equilibrium theory vector orderings that are not lattices, which arise in the typical model of portfolio trading with missing options. The assumptions are on the primitives of the model. They are bounds on the marginals of non-linear prices and for ω-proper economies they are both sufficient and necessary.     

我国风暴潮灾害债券设计研究

基于巨灾债券的理论与实践,从市场参与主体、投资属性、发行监管等方面探讨了风暴潮灾害债券的设计问题.研究显示,由于目前我国海洋灾害债券尚处于初步探索阶段,在综合考量发行成本、市场流动性和债券风险等多种微观因素的基础上,可在参数触发机制下,按照先外后内的顺序,面向机构投资者私募发行中短期风暴潮灾害债券.同时,建议从法律角度...     

A materialist development of some recent contributions to the labour theory of value

The paper offers a novel interpretation and affirmation of theopening arguments of Capital, answering the fundamental butneglected question of why labour is the substance of value.Marx's arguments require that two philosophical threads, oftenseparated in the literature on value, be woven together. Theargument that value is the intrinsic ‘content’ makingcommodities exchangeable employs the thread of realism. Theargument that abstract labour is the emergent ‘socialsubstance’ of value employs the thread of dialectics.This interpretation develops the materialist and dialecticalphilosophy of E.V. Ilyenkov and deepens the approach to valuetheory initiated by Ben Fine.     

知识协同视角下企业突破性创新形成机理研究

突破性创新是刺激技术跨越发展,推动产业转型升级的重要引擎,揭示其形成原理为攻克关键技术“卡脖子”问题提供了理论借鉴。基于突变理论凝练出突破性创新形成机理模型,认为突破性创新“积累-演化-临界-跃迁”的形成路径主要取决于内外部知识资源的聚合程度,从知识协同视角出发构建动力学模型以系统性地揭示知识资源到创新突破的动态过程。研究发现：外部知识资源的顺利引入是企业实现突破性创新的首要驱动因素,这对解决企业突破性创新的路径依赖和资源约束问题具有重要意义;吸收能力与聚合能力是推动企业形成突破性创新的关键性能力,然而,过高的组织记忆和知识惯性会僵化组织运营模式,遏制突破性创新的形成。研究结论为企业成功实施突破性创新提供了可操作的方法论,有助于技术行为从原始技术轨道成功过渡到新技术轨道。     

金融发展的倒U型增长效应与最优金融规模

金融发展能够促进经济增长,但是其作用是非线性的。由于金融发展是有成本的,当金融过度发展时,其机会成本将大于潜在的收益,反而会阻碍经济增长。因此,经济中存在最优的金融发展规模。本文用金融部门就业占总就业的比重作为度量金融发展的指标,为避免内生性偏误,实证研究采用系统的GMM进行估计。结果表明:金融发展对经济增长的影响不是线性的,而是一个倒U型。潜在的最优金融规模主要由经济发展水平和人力资本存量决定。     

基于尖点突变理论的知识型员工组织承诺建立—破坏的动力学分析

利用尖点突变理论来解释知识型员工组织承诺演化的动力学机制及其特征,把组织承诺作为状态变量,把能有效预测组织承诺的工作满意度和组织支持作为控制变量,针对武汉IT企业调研数据,利用cuspfit软件定量地拟合出了尖点突变模型。通过分析发现,工作满意度作为正则因子、组织支持作为分歧因子,共同影响组织承诺的突变机制:①组织承诺由建立到破坏的突变是源于工作满意度和组织支持变量穿过分歧集合时产生的自组织相变;②承诺一旦被破坏就很难重新建立起来,是源于这种突变机制的滞后效应;③当工作满意度和组织支持取值在分歧集合内部时,组织承诺演化均衡态的选择(建立或者破坏)取决于员工承诺的初始水平。     

企业集成创新系统的深层耦合机理及其复杂性涌现

面临技术与市场均不确定条件下的竞争环境,集成创新范式被提出。首先在理论层面上阐述了企业集成创新系统是一复杂耦合系统;然后,以此为理论基点,构建了创新耦合系统的抽象模型,推演出该系统的深层耦合机理;最后,分析了创新耦合系统涌现出的令人关注的复杂性。     

Knowledge, hierarchy and the selection of routines: an interpretative model with group interactions

The aim of this paper is to analyze the selection of routines inside an organizational structure characterized by different cognitive representations and facing hierarchical pressure leading to either truce or conflict. After a brief discussion of the role of hierarchy and the related problems of organizational practice selection in the evolutionary literature, we model the interactions between different groups within a firm trying to interfere with its coordination mechanisms in order to support their own practices. Numerical simulations highlight the different learning abilities present in various organizational set-ups and their related knowledge distribution. It is shown that networking designs are the most profitable organizational configurations because of their dynamics of learning, though they are very sensitive to the truce problem.JEL Classification: L14, L20, L22, B52, D83Correspondence to: Nathalie Lazaric     

Nash equilibrium when players account for the complexity of their forecasts

Nash equilibrium is often interpreted as a steady state in which each player holds the correct expectations about the other players' behavior and acts rationally. This paper investigates the robustness of this interpretation when there are small costs associated with complicated forecasts. The model consists of a two-person strategic game in which each player chooses a finite machine to implement a strategy in an infinitely repeated 2×2 game with discounting. I analyze the model using a solution concept called Nash Equilibrium with Stable Forecasts (ESF). My main results concern the structure of equilibrium machine pairs. They provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the form of equilibrium strategies and plays. In contrast to the “folk theorem,” these structural properties place severe restrictions on the set of equilibrium paths and payoffs. For example, only sequences of the one-shot Nash equilibrium can be generated by any ESF of the repeated game of chicken.     

Principles for the design of management control systems in knowledge networks: Experiences involving the European technology networks

The aim of this paper is to analyse technology-knowledge networks, especially the aspects relating to management control. The management of technology knowledge in a network is characterised by a number of special features that are typical of this form of organization, on the basis of which, we point out the main obstacles and disadvantages that condition the achievement of efficiency of their management. We will analyse management in these networks in light of the experience of various European institutions that actively participate in networks for the development of technological projects. The principal mechanisms used for the control of management will be obtained from the empirical study. Finally, on the basis of the empirical verification, we will consider the development of certain general principles for control in order to achieve greater efficiency in the management of knowledge in these networks.