Free Trade Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Agreement

What is the role of domestic politics in facilitating or constraining a government's decision to participate in free trade agreements (FTAs)? This paper seeks to answer this question by focusing on the domestic politics in Japan over the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). In particular, we ask why the opposition to the TPP encompasses a much broader segment of society than is predicted by trade theorems. We show that a broader protectionist coalition can emerge through persuasion and policy campaigns by the elites, in particular, powerful protectionist interests expending resources to persuade the uncertain public.     

Unlikely Pivotal States in Competitive Free Trade Agreement Diffusion: The Effect of Japan's Trans-Pacific Partnership Participation on Asia-Pacific Regional Integration

How can a state with dysfunctional trade politics spur the negotiation of major free trade agreements (FTAs)? Using the case of Japan's participation in the trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), we develop an analytical framework on FTA diffusion that takes into account multidimensional (economic, legal and political) competitive pressures, and the ability of states to act as pivots in triggering FTA cascades. We disaggregate the makeup of a pivotal state into two main components – capability and credibility – and underscore Japan's significant latent capabilities, but also its serious credibility shortcomings. The TPP's boost to Japan's credibility raised the possibility of significant economic, legal and political externalities for specific countries which responded by accelerating FTA initiatives that had long stalled: the trilateral China–Japan–Korea FTA, a 16-state East Asian FTA and the Japan–European Union trade negotiations. This study extends the theoretical frontier in policy diffusion studies by clarifying the combination of factors that allows some states, but not others, to activate the externalities behind the dissemination of defensive FTAs.     

US Trade Policy in the Trump Administration

President Donald Trump has emphasized three recurring themes regarding trade policy: the importance of trade balances, including bilateral trade balances, currency manipulation to gain unfair advantage in trade, and “disastrous” trade agreements. Asia figures prominently in these concerns. Trump withdrew the United States from the Trans‐Pacific Partnership, is increasing contingent or process protection, demanding the renegotiation under duress of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Korea‐United States Free Trade Agreement. These policies are modeled quantitatively and results generated for sectoral output and employment at the state and metropolitan area level.     

战略贸易政策新进展与发展中国家贸易政策

通过对战略贸易政策在贸易的政治经济学、不确定性、不完全承诺和不完全信息等四个方面的新进展进行讨论,得出结论:新贸易理论的新进展使得脱胎于发达国家的战略贸易政策更加接近发展中国家市场经常失灵的现实,从而对发展中国家的贸易政策有重要的指导意义。     

Trade costs and productivity in services sectors

This paper provides the first evidence linking lower international trade costs with higher productivity in services sectors. On average, lowering trade costs by 10% is associated with a gain in total factor productivity of around 0.5%, which is an effect of similar magnitude to that for goods sectors.     

Institutionalism and New Trade Theory: Rethinking Comparative Advantage and Trade Policy

Gomory and Baumol (2000), and Samuelson (2004) have raised concerns about international trade’s future impact on U.S. national income. The focus is how globalization may affect the size and distribution across countries of gains from trade. Though their analysis is developed using a pure trade theoretical framework, it has strands in common with institutionalist thinking. Their findings spotlight the need for a new U.S. trade policy agenda aimed at maximizing the U.S. share of gains from trade, and complementing conventional Keynesian open economy macroeconomic analysis.     

Politics of Trade in the USA and in the Obama Administration: Implications for Asian Regionalism

Over the next four years, the Obama administration will face a series of strategic choices in forging policies to respond to a growing momentum for advances in Asian regional structures. Though faced with domestic political challenges; not least from within his own Democratic party – President Obama and his advisers will need to set a course for the reassertion of US leadership in constructing a trans-Pacific vision, through new US-based free trade agreements, signing on to existing agreements such as the P-4 (Singapore, New Zealand, Brunei, the Philippines), or consolidating existing free trade agreements among Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations. In pursuing this vision, the US should take advantage of the fact that the next three APEC leaders meetings are in Singapore (2009), Japan (2010), and the USA (2011); a sequence ripe for synergistic teamwork.     

日本增强ICT国际竞争力的新政策

日本政府于2007年5月出台了增强信息通信国际竞争力的一揽子政策--ICT国际竞争力强化计划.该计划作为日本增强信息通信国际竞争力的总体框架,包括:七大基础项目和8个个别项目.     

Japan's New Foreign Economic Policy: A Shift Toward a Strategic and Activist Model?*

This article analyzes key departures in Japanese foreign economic policy: the development of an extensive network of free trade agreements thereby abandoning the exclusive focus on the multilateral system as the vehicle for trade liberalization, and the revamping of the official development assistance (ODA) program by slashing its budget, emphasizing national interests in aid giving, and phasing out yen loans to China. We argue that the remarkable degree of policy activism in both trade and ODA represents the Japanese government's attempt to respond strategically to common challenges: domestically the economic recession, internationally the pressure for policy convergence and competition with China. However, in both issue areas the ability of the government to embark on swift policy changes has been compromised by domestic politics: opposition from vested interests and politicization of policy‐making, bureaucratic sectionalism, and weak executive leadership. We conclude with some policy recommendations to improve the coherence of foreign economic policy formulation in Japan.     

The Role of Trade and International Economic Policy in Indian Economic Performance*

India's economic policies have undergone major reforms since the early 1990s. Before that, government regulation and control of economic activity was pervasive, and the trade sector did very poorly. One consequence was that imports were highly restricted and their scarcity was itself a major constraint on growth. After the crisis of the early1990s, trade policy was substantially liberalized. In this paper, the pre‐1990s regime is first briefly described. Thereafter, the economic policy reforms that impinged most directly on the trade sector are set forth, and the response of exports and imports to those changes is outlined. Exports have grown rapidly, from about 5% of the gross domestic product to around 15%, and they continue to grow at an average annual rate of 20%. Improved performance of the trade sector has been a major contributing factor to India's dramatically accelerated growth performance. A final section of this paper assesses the current situation, and sets forth the major policy challenges that will need to be met if that performance is to be sustained, if not improved upon.     

Trade Openness and Monetary Policy in Ghana

The study employed a Structural VAR model, using monthly time series data from 2002 to 2017 to assess the relationship between trade openness and effectiveness of monetary policy in Ghana. The empirical results revealed that as the degree of trade openness increases, monetary policy becomes more effective in reducing the rate of inflation. However, monetary policy is less effective to reduce the output gap. Therefore, the results suggest that monetary policy authorities must take into account the level of trade openness whenever they are formulating monetary policy.     

International Trade and the Environment: Theoretical and Policy Linkages

I review and extend three approaches to trade and environmental policies: competitive general equilibrium, oligopoly and monopolistic competition. The first two have surprisingly similar implications: deviations from first-best rules are justified only by constraints on policy choice (which motivates what I call a “single dividend” approach to environmental policy), and taxes and emissions standards differ in ways which reflect the Le Chatelier principle. I also show how environmental taxes may lead to a catastrophic relocation of industry in the presence of agglomeration effects, although not necessarily if there is a continuum of industries which differ in pollution intensity. *An earlier version was presented as an invited plenary lecture to the European Association for Environmental and Resource Economics Conference, Oslo, 1999.     

Trade liberalization and institutional reforms1

The accession of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to the European Union (EU) is expected to lead to the new member countries becoming more like the older members, including in terms of trade. In this paper, we focus on two factors promoting CEE–EU trade integration: trade liberalization and institutional reforms. Measures of trade liberalization undertaken by both parties during the 1990s were very substantial, but did not always produce the expected upsurge of regional trade flows. Much less progress has been made in improving the functioning of CEE institutions (e.g., progress in the privatization process or in reducing corruption). Countries where most important changes at the institutional level occurred were also those that most increased their trade with the EU. Comparing the impact of these two factors, we find that improving institutions in CEE countries can generate as much trade as the removal of all tariff and non‐tariff barriers. The paper also addresses the issue of the presence of reversed causality between trade and institutions, and the pro‐trade effect of institutional similarity.     

US Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: Strategy and Policy Issues

East Asian trade and investment policies have attracted US investment into the region, but these policies should be fine-tuned for the region to compete effectively for US investment inflow and increase their global share of US foreign direct investment. The changes should consider the needs of the US investors and East Asia's own economic development. Bilateral free trade agreements with the US are the likely channel for these changes, but the question is whether East Asia is ready for a comprehensive and deep liberalization. East Asia should work toward a regional investment policy framework to facilitate and expand the regional production network developed by the US foreign direct investment.     

How COVID-19 Medical Supply Shortages Led to Extraordinary Trade and Industrial Policy

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, a global shortage of hospital gowns, gloves, surgical masks, and respirators caused policymakers globally to panic. China increased imports and decreased exports of this personal protective equipment, removing supplies from world markets. Shortages led to European Union and US export controls as well as other extraordinary policy actions, including a US effort to reserve supplies manufactured in China by a US-headquartered multinational. By April 2020, China's exports had mostly resumed, and over the rest of the year its export volumes surged. But China's export prices also skyrocketed and remained elevated through 2020, reflecting severe and continued shortages. This paper explores these and other government actions, such as US trade war tariffs and US industrial policy in the form of over $1 billion of subsidies to build out its domestic personal protective equipment supply chain, as well as potential lessons for future pandemic preparedness and international policy cooperation.     

Revisiting Exports and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam

Since 1986, Vietnam has undertaken various reform measures in the trade and foreign investment area. This paper finds significant contributions of world trade, and competitiveness and liberalization effects to Vietnam's export growth over the period 1997–2008. Vietnam's exports became more competitive and better complemented the import demand of Vietnam's trade partners. In addition, dynamic comparative advantage became evident in many products, but significant room remains for improving export competitiveness. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows also increased and helped stimulate Vietnam's exports. FDI inflows have increased in both the short‐ and long‐term, yet are only of a limited magnitude. This necessitates more effective measures to enhance the linkages between FDI and domestic enterprises.     

Neckties in the tropics: a model of international trade and cultural diversity

Abstract .  Some cultural goods are consumed socially and are characterized by the same consumption network externalities as languages. Also, producers of new cultural goods in any one country draw on the stock of ideas generated by previous cultural production in all countries. For such goods, costless trade and communication tend to lead to the dominance of one cultural style, increasing utility in the short run but reducing quality and welfare in the long run. Increasing protection while keeping communication costs low may stimulate production of cultural goods that are 'compatible' with the dominant style, adding little to the stock of usable ideas.     

开放条件下我国外贸政策的定位及体系构建

具有渐进性、法制化和市场化特征的我国外贸体制改革以及贸易自由化与贸易保护并存的对外开放 ,要求我国对外贸易政策应该是在贸易自由化过程中的合理保护———开放型有管理的自由贸易政策。这一政策应遵循开放、适度有效的保护和竞争的原则 ,其政策基点是贸易保护的适度性 ,表现为保护的动态性、主动性、目的性和差别性。我国开放型有管理的自由贸易政策的实施应有体制上的保障 ,以扩大出口为主要政策目标 ,并与产业政策相结合 ,真正促进社会资源的有效配置 ,保证社会经济效益的提高并促进市场秩序的完善。     

On tariff and quality innovation in a market with discrete preferences

In a market for a quality-differentiated good with heterogeneous set of consumers and a local firm facing competitive imports from abroad, we examine private and social incentives for quality innovation. For differential tariff regime, we show that both the private and social gains increase with the tariff protection for the low-quality segment of the domestic market for any given tariff on high-quality imports. But for some very high costs of innovation, the local firm may not undertake a socially desirable innovation. The pro-competitive effect, on the other hand, ensures that quality-distortion-at-the-bottom occurs only for very high levels of tariffs.