Has Abenomics Succeeded in Raising Japan's Inward Foreign Direct Investment?

Japan is known to have an exceptionally low level of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). The promotion of inward FDI is one of the policy goals of Abenomics structural reforms. This present paper studies the accumulation of Japan's inward FDI stock during the first 3 years of Abenomics (2012–2015), and finds no evidence that Japan's inward FDI stock increased more than the trend before Abenomics started would have predicted. A comparison of the main policies for promoting inward FDI that have been implemented to the real and perceived impediments to inward FDI reveals that it may be advisable to shift the emphasis of the policy to address more regulatory and administrative issues and to reduce the cost of doing business in Japan.     

Did the EMS encourage inflation convergence?

This paper studies the convergence of inflation rates over the period of 1983–93 for some countries within the European Monetary System. Three different price indices are considered for consumer goods, services, and industrial products. This study focuses on the difference between core and peripheral countries for measuring convergence speed. By using - and -convergence tools, as previously identified in studies on output growth convergence, it was found that the convergence process did not evolve equally whether considered through price indices, time, or countries.     

Hayek and the Great Depression of 1929: Did he really change his mind?

The aim of this research is to establish whether, and if so in what way, Hayek changed his mind about the Great Depression of 1929.The work is divided into two parts. In the first part, I present the ‘early’ Hayek of the 1930s. Hayek was the great rival of Keynes. Both explained the Great Depression, applying opposing business cycle theories. For Keynes, the crisis was caused by an excess of saving over investment; for Hayek, on the contrary, by an excess of investment over saving. In the early 1930s, Röpke attempted a synthesis, positing that a recession due to overinvestment can degenerate, as in 1929, into a depression caused by oversaving. Hayek examined and rejected Röpke's theory. In the second part, I present the ‘later’ Hayek of the 1970s. After years of silence and solitude, Hayek was unexpectedly awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, precisely for the contribution he made in the 1930s to the theory of the business cycle. Hayek returned to his pursuit of the ghost of Keynes, debated with his friend and rival Friedman, re-examined Röpke's special case and, according to Haberler, changed his mind. In my conclusion, I attempt to resolve the dilemma.     

Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?

Over the past 60 years, a voluminous literature has painstakingly developed crises theories and their associated Early Warning Signals. The hallmark of this literature is the consistency with which selected Early Warning Signals, such as the level of reserves and exchange rate appreciations, are presumed to predict different types of crises across countries and time. The diversity of crises theories that motivate Early Warning Signals presents, however, a challenge to empirical implementations. Given that the true model of Early Warning Signals is unknown, omitted variable bias contaminates estimates and confidence levels when the uncertainty surrounding a particular theory has been ignored. After addressing model uncertainty in Early Warning Signal regressions, using an extended version of Frankel and Saravelos (2012. J. Int. Econ. 87, 216–231) dataset, we do not find a single Early Warning Signal that alerts to all dimensions of the 2008 crisis. Instead, distinct sets of Early Warning Signals identify different dimensions of the crisis: banking, balance of payments, exchange rate pressure, and recession.     

Did the Supreme Court just do you a favor?

By permitting depreciation of patient lists, the judges gave both buyers and sellers of medical practices a chance to make a better--but not great--deal.     

Did financial deregulation help consumers? Access to market-yield instruments

The maturity effect (ME) of futures prices postulated by Samuelson (1965) is re-examined using three nonparametric tests. The consistent entropy asymmetry test by Racine and Maasoumi (2007) indicates that variance is an appropriate risk or uncertainty measure for ME, and value-at-risk and expected shortfall are also adopted. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov dominance test and Wilcoxon rank sum and signed rank test are employed to rank the estimates of the three risk measures under a moving-window framework. The testing outcomes are contingent on futures type, testing method and risk measures. The testing outcomes show mild support for ME.     

Did Hayek have a monetary theory of business cycles?

Joseph Schumpeter, a careful reader of Hayek, categorized Hayek??s theory of economic cycles as non-monetary. Almost every other source, including Hayek himself, categorized the theory as monetary. The issue turns on the concept of causality being used. The question of what causality concept to apply to complex phenomena has substantive implications for economic theory. A simple concept of causality, appropriate to the study of some physical phenomena, will mislead when applied to complex phenomena. We provide examples of errors in analysis that follow from the wrong choice of a causal paradigm.     

Did immigration contribute to wage stagnation of unskilled workers?

In this paper we first show that the timing and skill distribution of Immigrants to the U.S. between 1970 and 2014 imply they did not contribute to the decline in the wages of native, non-college educated workers – including high school dropouts – at the national level. We then review other evidence at the local level, which implies immigration is not associated with lower non-college wages. Rather, higher immigration seems associated with higher average (and college-level) wages. Local externalities, complementarities, efficient specialization and appropriate technological choice suggest at least part of the positive association is causal.     

How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?北大核心CSSCISSCI

FROM SMITH TO KEYNES AND BACK The birth of economics as a discipline is usually credited to Adam Smith,who published The Wealth of Nationsin 1776. Over the next 160 years an extensive body of economic theory was de-veloped, whose central message was:     

Did growth and reforms increase citizens' support for the transition?

How did post-communist transformations affect people's perceptions of their economic and political systems? We model a pseudo-panel with 89 country-year clusters, based on the aggregation of about eighty thousand interviews conducted in 14 countries between 1991 and 2004, to identify the macro and institutional drivers of the public opinion. We find that: (i) When the economy is growing, on average people appreciate more extensive reforms and dislike unbalanced reforms. They dislike reforms when they are associated with higher unemployment. (ii) Nostalgia for the past regime increases when worsening income distribution or higher inflation interact with more privatizations of state enteprises. (iii) Cross-country differences in the attitudes towards the present and future are largely explained by differences in the institutional indicators for the rule of law and corruption. (iv) Cross-country differences in the extent of nostalgia towards the past are related to differences in the deterioration of standards of living.     

Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?

Using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model, I investigate the impact of monetary and technology shocks on the euro area stock market. I find an important role for technology surprise shocks, but not monetary shocks, in explaining variations in real stock prices. Specifically, the pronounced boom?Cbust cycle of 1995?C2003 is largely due to technology surprise shocks. The identification method allows me to study the effects of technology news shocks. The responses are consistent with the idea that news on technology improvements has an immediate impact on stock prices. These findings are robust to several modelling choices, including the productivity measure, the specification of the VAR model, and the identifying restrictions.     

Did China tire safeguard save U.S. workers?

Although temporary trade barriers are perceived as a feasible policy instrument for securing domestic jobs in the presence of increased globalization and economic downturns, no study has assessed whether such temporary barriers have actually saved domestic jobs. To overcome this deficiency, we evaluate the China-specific safeguard case on consumer tires petitioned by the United States. Contrary to claims made by the Obama administration, we find that total employment and average wages in the tire industry were unaffected by the safeguard. Further analysis reveals that this result is not surprising as we find that imports from China are completely diverted to other exporting countries partly due to the strong presence of multinational corporations in the world tire market.     

Beer and the Tie: Did Divestiture of Brewer-owned Public Houses Lead to Higher Beer Prices?

In 1989, the United Kingdom Monopolies and Mergers Commission (MMC) recommended measures that eventually led brewers to divest themselves of 14,000 public houses. The MMC claimed that their recommendations would lower retail prices and increase consumer choice. Since that time, however, retail prices have risen. This paper contains an econometric analysis of the transition period. The analysis is based on a model of the relationship between retail price and retail-organisational form that emphasises how exclusive-dealing clauses and strategic factors interact     

Elections and unemployment benefits for families: Did the Family Benefit Dispute affect election outcomes in Germany?

Underlying reasons for certain voting outcomes are subject to a vivid debate – especially in times of landslide changes in voting outcomes of long-established parties in many European countries including Germany. The linkages between these voting outcomes and economic indicators are rather elusive since many confounding and unobservable aspects determine voting decisions. Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment resulting from a legislation change in the German state of Bavaria that effectively increased family benefits for unemployment benefit recipients in certain districts, we try to identify the effect of this legislation on voting outcomes in the Bavarian state election of 2018. While we do not find a significant effect on general election outcomes in the affected districts, our results imply that the general debate seems to have affected the voting behavior of families with unemployment benefits and children under the age of three.     

European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?

We investigate how European policy initiatives influenced market assessments of sovereign default risk and banking sector fragility during the sovereign debt crisis in four adversely affected countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. We focus on three broad groups of policies: (a) ECB policy actions (monetary and financial support), (b) EU programs (financial and fiscal rules as well as financial support in crisis countries), and (c) domestic austerity programs. We measure immediate market impact effects: what policies changed risk perceptions, using CDS spreads on sovereign bonds and banks in this assessment. We employ dynamic panel and event study methodologies in the empirical work. We find that a number of programs initially stabilized sovereign and bank bond markets (e.g. Outright Monetary Transactions program), although announcement and implementation impacts on markets differed in some cases (e.g. second Covered Market Bond Program). Actions designed to shore up sovereign markets often lowered risk assessments in bank bond markets and policies designed to ensure safety and soundness of the European banking system in some cases significantly impacted sovereign debt markets. Finally, a number of policies designed to stabilize markets had surprisingly little immediate impact on either sovereign or bank bond market risk assessments.     

Did rent deregulation alter tenure choice decisions in the Czech Republic?

Our study is the first that explicitly links rent deregulation and the choice between owning and renting (the tenure choice) using household decisions over a 1‐year period. The rent deregulation process in the Czech Republic started in 2006, two years after joining the European Union. By design, the maximum regulated rent appreciation depended explicitly on real estate prices, which accelerated the pace of deregulation due to rapidly rising prices at the time. A unique dataset enables us to track the tenure choice of households from consumption surveys for subsequent years. The proportion of households that switched from renting to owning sharply increased among renters of regulated apartments. We show that this change was caused by the deregulation process. In contrast, rent deregulation makes owners and renters paying market rent less likely to change ownership status.     

Did the AFL equalization policy achieve the evenness of the league?

In this article, we investigate whether the Australian Football League intervention policies coincided with a more even-playing field in the league, as captured by individual match margins. We find that only two out of the eight major policies implemented over the last hundred years are correlated with lower margin.