Should East Asia’s currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency

Growing concern that a dollar peg exposes East Asian economies to fluctuations in the dollar–yen exchange rate has stimulated research on currency basket regimes as alternatives for these economies. However, existing studies have mostly ignored an important characteristic of East Asia, i.e., most of its international trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollars. This paper investigates how the preponderance of dollar invoicing affects optimal currency basket regimes for East Asian economies. I develop a three-country center-periphery sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the analysis. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximations to the policy functions with the expected lifetime utility of households chosen as the welfare criterion. Contrary to the conjecture of existing literature, I show that predominance of dollar invoicing implies that the dollar should receive a smaller weight than suggested by bilateral trade shares between emerging markets in East Asia and the United States. The results hinge on the interaction of different degrees of pass-through implied by the choice of invoice currency and endogenous responses of monetary policies in the center countries.     

Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008

The paper estimates the impact of exchange rate movements on foreign direct investment (FDI). By using the panel data of Japanese FDI flows to nine dynamic Asian economies during 1987–2008, the paper finds that (i) FDI declined with a depreciation of the yen against host country currencies; (ii) it increased with exchange rate volatility; and (iii) it was little affected by the Asian financial crisis, especially when disguised financial flows were removed from the data. A novel result concerns the negative response of FDI to the third moment of monthly exchange rate changes: the volume of FDI was smaller when the distribution was positively skewed (i.e., when the yen was biased towards relatively large depreciation shocks). If skewness proxies for expected mean-reverting changes, this supports the idea that source country investors care about the future stream of revenues and returns denominated in their own currency. These results are robust, with other standard control variables having statistically significant coefficients with expected signs.     

Bank Indonesia and The Recent Crisis

This paper is a personal note describing the crisis as it unfolded while the writer was a key player in Indonesia's macroeconomic management. The crisis is seen as multi-faceted. It originated externally from a shock in the currency market that triggered a downward spiral from currency depreciation to fully-fledged crisis. The currency shock that hit the rupiah in July 1997 exposed in sequence the flaws embedded in the banking sector, the economic system, the social and the political system, flaws that had been obscured by long years of good economic performance. Through a complicated process of contagion and feedback effects—market disturbances, policy responses and market reactions—Indonesia deteriorated from a relatively well managed economy to the “worst case” among the Asian crisis economies. The paper discusses this process, the IMF's role, the bank closure issue, the currency board controversy and the author's dismissal as Governor of Bank Indonesia.     

Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises with Borrowing Constraints and Domestic Currency Debt

This paper presents a model of self-fulfilling currency crises in economies that do not suffer from domestic liability dollarization but whose international borrowing is subject to a collateral constraint. The model shows that when the collateral is a non-traded asset the expectation of a real exchange rate depreciation may trigger the constraint and cause a crisis in which the capital outflow and the real depreciation reinforce each other. Since in the model debt is denominated in domestic currency this paper highlights that borrowing constraints can cause self-fulfilling currency crises even in the absence of foreign-currency debt.     

Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities From Latin America and East Asia

In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange-rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35 years. The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed include: the relationship between exchange-rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency crises, the merits of “dollarization,” the relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability, monetary independence under alternative exchange-rate arrangements, and the effects of the recent global “currency wars” on exchange rates in commodity exporters.     

Currency Substitution and the Stability of the Demand for Money in East Asia

Abstract

This paper models and tests the stability of the demand for money in five East Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—in the context of an open economy. The Johansen multivariate cointegration vector error correction analysis against quarterly data covering the period 1985:1–2001:4 was used. It was found that a stationary long run cointegrating relationship exists between broad money, real income, domestic interest rates, foreign interest rates corrected for exchange rate depreciation, and the expected rate of depreciation of the exchange rate. The results show that US Treasury bills rates and the foreign exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar play a significant role in the East Asian countries money demand relationship. This suggests that currency substitution vis-à-vis the US dollar may be an important consideration in the design and implementation of monetary policy in the East Asian countries. Furthermore, the results show that the Asian currency crises impacted the money demand functions negatively in these countries. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests show no evidence of parameter instability of the money demand functions in three of the five countries throughout the period under investigation.     

The European Periphery in the Era of the Gold Standard: The Case of the Spanish Peseta and the Pound Sterling from 1883 to 1931

This paper analyses the relationship between the Spanish peseta, the currency of a peripheral country, and the pound sterling, the central currency of the gold standard. From 1883, when Spain suspended metallic convertibility, until 1931, when Great Britain definitively abandoned gold, the peseta was a fiat currency with a flexible exchange rate regime. Our results confirm, first, long-run PPP hypothesis compliance for the peseta/pound sterling rate during the period. Secondly, we illustrate how the inclusion of peripheral variables (erratic trade and financial risk), significantly improves the short-run adjustment to the PPP hypothesis. It appears that the floating regime thus helped Spain to smooth out the required external adjustment process resulting from balance of payments shocks.     

Why are currency crises contagious? A comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998

Why Are Currency Crises Contagious? A Comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998.—This paper analyzes three channels through which currency crises are transmitted between countries: contagion based on unsustainable economic fundamentals; contagion resulting from herding behaviour in financial markets; contagion induced by close trade integration. The presented model that links currency crises with these three types of contagion is employed to analyze the transmission of the Mexican crisis in 1994–1995 and the Thai crisis in 1997 to other emerging economies. The empirical results show that, first, the most important contagion channels were based on close financial and trade integration rather than on the weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals. Second, the vulnerability to capital flow reversals and weak financial sectors made countries particularly prone to a currency crisis, while external imbalances and currency misalignments were much less important. JEL no. F30, E60, E65, E44     

The US tech pulse,stock prices,and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from Asian developing countries

This paper empirically investigates the economic relationship between the US and Asian economies after the Asian currency crisis in Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, employing a cointegration methodology. Based on the empirical results, we conclude that the interdependence between the US and these Asian economies has intensified especially in information technology industries, and that their stock markets are integrated. On the other hand, the relationship between the domestic stock and foreign exchange markets is found to have a negative sign, interpreted by portfolio balance approach, in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. This result implies that the exchange rates of these countries are relatively vulnerable to fluctuation in international portfolio investments.     

虚拟经济与中国工业化腾飞

现代市场经济的最突出表现是虚拟经济的增长。如果只是研究实体经济增长,而不研究虚拟经济增长,那么,这种研究就未能做到与社会经济发展同步。虚拟经济具有虚拟性,但虚拟经济同样是一种真实的存在,只不过虚拟经济的真实存在不同于实体经济的真实存在。虚拟经济的这种真实存在集中表现在它与实体经济使用的是同样的货币。正是这同样的货币将实体经济与虚拟经济连接在一起。目前,中国经济的发展已进入工业化腾飞阶段,由于市场机制的作用,出现了激烈的价格上涨,但这并不是通货膨胀,而是必要的和需要理性承受的价格调整,只是这种价格上涨也必然引起货币的急剧贬值。而这种货币贬值既会影响实体经济领域,也会影响虚拟经济领域。就中国的股票市场而言,在人民币不断贬值的前提下,股票的市值需要相应地爬升,而不是跌落,否则,就是市场尚不成熟或出现了较为严重的问题。     

Exchange-rate policy in East Asia after the fall: how much have things changed?

This paper evaluates the changes in the exchange-rate policies of East Asian economies in the aftermath of the currency crisis and the process in which the exchange-market stability was re-established. The empirical analysis evaluates the changing roles of the yen and the US dollar in the currency baskets, the shifts in the volatility of the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and their implications on exchange-rate management, the exchange-market perception of credibility and risk of the postcrisis exchange-rate regimes, and the process of reversion to fundamental values after the massive currency depreciation.The analysis shows that after the abandonment of the quasi-dollar peg, the yen had gained a greater weight in the currency baskets and the greater flexibility in which the exchange rates are being managed serve to accommodate the greater volatility in the macroeconomic fundamentals. The improvement in the macroeconomic conditions and the greater credibility that has been acquired by the regional monetary authorities had allowed the exchange market to stabilize and enabled the exchange rates to revert back to their fundamental values.     

Stock market uncertainty and uncovered equity parity deviation: Evidence from Asia

Recently, many empirical studies document that a country's stock market performance relative to the US and its local currency units per US dollar tend to move in opposite direction over the short run, also known as the uncovered equity parity (UEP) condition. However, those studies have applied only to advanced economies to date. This study conducted the same tests to a sample of 18 Asian economies. To one's surprise, we found that the UEP condition reverses its sign among Asian currencies. In addition, measures of stock market uncertainty are suggested as a potential driving force behind this UEP reversal for Asian economies. This surprising result suggests that there might be other mechanisms behind the joint dynamics of equity and currency returns than the portfolio rebalancing caused by incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. The reasoning is that Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets are even more subject to incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. Thus, one should expect even stronger UEP evidence from Asian currency markets if the portfolio rebalancing mechanism was the only force at play.     

The impact of real exchange rate movements on firm performance: A case study of Taiwanese manufacturing firms

Taiwan experienced large depreciations of its currency, the New Taiwan (NT) dollar, in the late 1990s. The largest real depreciation, 13 per cent, occurred during the East Asian Financial Crisis. Since Taiwan was subjected neither to the economic turmoil of the crisis itself nor to the subsequent reforms, its experience provides a good opportunity for studying the effects of exchange rate changes on firm performance. This paper empirically examines the exchange rate effects on firm exports, domestic sales, total sales, value-added and productivity, by using data on firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange merged with customs trade data covering the period of 1992–2000. Our findings indicate that the real depreciation of the NT dollar led to an increase in exports, domestic sales, total sales, value-added, and productivity. In addition, we find that the productivity improvement induced by real currency depreciation may be a result of firm scale expansion.     

Foreign exchange market pressure and stock market dynamics in emerging Asia

International Economics and Economic Policy - This study investigates connections between currency and stock markets for the Asian emerging economies using a novel approach that considers exchange...     

Is Asian Currency Unit Attractive to East Asian Economies？

Pegging the RMB exchange rate to the Asian currency unit (ACU) has not, at least in the short term, been proved a better solution than pegging to the US dollar or pegging to a G‐3 (US$, Japanese yen and euro) currency basket. Although the Asian currency unit can help Asian economies to keep the relative price of regional currencies stable, the cost of joining a formal regional monetary cooperation is the relinquishment of the autonomy of their domestic policies. Asian monetary cooperation needs to provide more potential benefits if it is to attract Asian economies. We argue that Asian monetary cooperation should be designed to solve the problem of regional trade imbalance, and regional exchange rate policy coordination should be adopted as the first step towards exchange rate cooperation. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang)     

Indonesia's Non-Oil Export Performance During the Economic Crisis: Distinguishing Price Trends from Quantity Trends

Despite an enormous currency depreciation, the growth rate of Indonesia's non-oil exports, measured in dollars, did not accelerate during the first two years of the Asian crisis. In fact, during the second year of the crisis non-oil export value dropped sharply. This paper demonstrates that the main reason for the decline in the dollar value of non-oil exports was a collapse of export prices. Non-oil export dollar prices fell 26% between the second quarter of 1997 and the second quarter of 1999. Measured at constant prices, non-oil exports grew 24% and manufactured exports 31% during this period. Non-oil import prices fell by roughly the same amount as non-oil export prices during the crisis, with little change in the non-oil terms of trade. The decline in the price of traded goods significantly reduced the magnitude of the real exchange rate depreciation experienced by Indonesia.     

Exchange rates,global imbalances,and interdependence in East Asia

The paper analyzes East Asian interdependence in the face of global imbalances. A macro-econometric multinational model is used, describing Korea, Japan, China and the rest of East Asia in their respective relations with the United States as well as with the rest of the world. US imbalances and their expected consequences, notably a depreciation of the dollar and the slowdown of US demand, have rather contrasted effects on East Asian economies, depending on relative magnitudes of the two components. Korea is more affected by the dollar depreciation while China is more exposed to the US slowdown. Japan, less open and less dependent on the US market, is less touched. The correction of East Asian exchange-rate misalignments, which have prevailed since the beginning of the 2000s, would badly affect East Asian economies if undertaken too abruptly. Lastly, the perspective of creating an area of stabilised exchange rates between won, yen and other currencies, organized either as a common currencies basket system or in a regime based on the ACU, is explored preliminarily. Sets of simulations comparing adjustment mechanisms between East Asian countries, with or without the possibility of monetary adjustment, illustrate the cost of precluding exchange-rate adjustments in the case of asymmetric demand shocks.     

High‐Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia*

Using daily data from the Asian currency crisis, the present paper examines high‐frequency contagion effects among six Asian countries. The ‘origin’ (of exchange rate depreciation, or decline in stock prices) and the ‘affected’ (currencies, or stock prices) in the daily spillover relationship were defined and identified. Indonesia is found to be the main origin country, affecting exchange rates of other countries. Contrary to conventional wisdom, evidence of high‐frequency crisis spillover from the Thai exchange rate to other currencies was weak at best. There exists a high‐frequency contagion in stock markets among East Asian countries. Contagion coefficients are positively correlated with trade indices, indicating that investors lower their financial assessment of a country that has trade linkage to a crisis origin country within days, if not hours, of a shock.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

International Capital Mobility in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Daily Data Study for Japan,Singapore and Taiwan*

Using daily data from between 1993 and 2003, covered interest differential and cointegration tests are applied to examine short‐run and long‐run international capital mobility for Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, and, for comparison purposes, the UK. Despite the high short‐run mobility in Japan (Singapore and Taiwan), being slightly (significantly) lower than in the UK, perfect long‐run mobility exists in all three Asian economies, especially when the Asian currency crisis is excluded. Different short‐run and long‐run mobility implies the existence of a response lag in the financial market. As expected, although the impulse response reaches the significant long‐run equilibrium level shortly after the shock in the UK, lagged responses appear in the three Asian economies, particularly in Singapore and Taiwan.