信息不对称与机构操纵——中国股市机构与散户的博弈分析

中国股市中 ,股票二级市场价格常常在短期内发生剧烈变化。这种现象产生的原因在于 ,在信息不对称情况下 ,机构通过操纵上市公司基本面信息来影响股票交易价格 ,以获得超额收益。鉴于机构之间信息不对称程度远远低于机构与散户之间信息不对称程度 ,发展机构投资者可以最终减少市场操纵行为 ,机构在投资者中所占比例与市场整体被操纵程度的关系可以用倒“U”形曲线表示。     

我国股票市场羊群行为的实证分析

运用CSAD（横截面绝对收益率偏离度）指标对市场整体收益率进行回归的方法,对样本区间沪、深股市所有上市公司股票收盘价数据进行整体和分阶段的实证分析,发现在样本期间内,我国股票市场在整体上存在显著的羊群行为,并且羊群行为存在一个减少的趋势。从市场分组研究发现,在市场上涨情形下存在类似的羊群行为和类似的发展趋势,而在市场下跌情形下羊群行为呈现出不同的特征,存在一个由不显著到显著逐步递增的趋势。     

Testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis: the case of Korea

This study examines the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using the data from the Korean won–US dollar and the Korean won–Japanese yen foreign exchange markets. We extract proxies for inflation from stock market returns of Korea, the United States and Japan based on the method used by Chowdhry, Roll and Xia in 2005. We explicitly test the relative PPP hypothesis in light of the short-run price volatility using monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2012. Our findings suggest that the empirical test results from the entire sample period do not support the relative PPP hypothesis. However, the results from the sample period excluding the Asian Financial Crisis period show that the relative PPP hypothesis holds for the Korean won–US dollar market with a moderate magnitude of inflation impact, but not for the Korean won–Japanese yen market. Abrupt changes in exchange rates during the crisis period may have affected the relationship between inflation and exchange rates. This result also suggests that factors other than inflation might have affected the Korean won–Japanese yen exchange rate.     

Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price

This article considers the impact of match results on the stock returns of English football clubs. We propose that the magnitude of the response to a given result depends on the importance of the game, which is measured in two ways. First, we consider the extent to which the clubs are close rivals vying for similar league positions, as winning such games is particularly significant. Second, we argue that each individual game becomes more important for those clubs likely to be promoted or relegated as the season draws to a close, since a given match will have increasing information content concerning the final league position of the club. Using a fairly large panel comprising data for 19 clubs, we find some support for the notion that stock prices are affected more by the results of important matches than matches of lesser importance. We also observe that the difference between the number of points the club secures from a given match, and the number it was expected to secure, affects its stock price, as does the number of goals that the club under question scores in the match, relative to its competitor.     

Investors’ fear and herding in the stock market

ABSTRACT

In this article, we examine herding in three developed stock markets testing for the impact of investors’ ‘fear’ on herding estimations. To this end, we employ daily data of all listed stocks from USA, UK and Germany from January 2004 to July 2014. We examine herd behaviour applying the cross-sectional dispersion approach. Moreover, we investigate the asymmetric herding behaviour under different market states and sub-periods. The stock markets under examination provide comparable implied volatility indices which are used as a proxy for fear. As a result, apart from the standard herding estimations within and across markets, we also augment the benchmark model with the fear indicator. Our empirical results document the statistically significant impact of fear on herding estimations. Moreover, there is evidence of cross market herding as well as evidence of herding in the UK during specific sub-periods.     

International co-movements of real and financial economic variables

This study presents a first attempt at investigating whether the international co-movements of real economic activity conform to the same international co-movements of financial activity. This study tests the international co-movements of real economic activity, on the one hand, and financial variables such as stock returns, interest rates, inflation rates and risk premiums, on the other hand. We employ a dynamic correlation model on data from OECD countries for the period 1980–2010. Our findings demonstrate that international stock markets co-react in accordance with the underlying international economic forces. We also document three other results. First, the correlation among countries with respect to real economic activity is statistically positive, but the level of this correlation is lower than that of financial variables. Second, there is a significant increase over time in the international correlation level with respect to the financial variables. Finally, the creation of the Euro Monetary Union and the adoption of an inflation targeting policy in many countries have increased the international correlation of all of the financial variables tested. The article concludes with two implications from these findings: (1) predictions in the context of international portfolio diversification, and (2) policy making at the fiscal and monetary levels.     

Volatility transmission between Japan,UK and USA in daily stock returns

In the past, there are a lot of studies which conclude that the holiday, asymmetry and day-of-the-week effects influence stock price volatility. Most of the studies are based on a class of generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. No one examines these effects simultaneously using stochastic volatility (SV) models. In this paper, using the SV model, we examine whether these effects play an important role in stock price volatilities. Furthermore, we consider spillover effects between Japan, UK and USA, where spillover effects in price level as well as volatility are taken into account. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for suggestions and comments. We also acknowledge Toshiaki Watanabe who gave us a lot of helpful suggestions and comments in the preliminary version of this paper. This research is partially supported from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) #18530158, 2006–2009, and Grant-in-Aid for COE Research) and the Zengin Foundation (Grant-in-Aid for Studies on Economics and Finance), which are acknowledged by H. Tanizaki.     

Herding behaviour and the declining value relevance of accounting information: evidence from an emerging stock market

This article sheds light on the underlying mechanisms behind the changes in the value relevance of accounting information in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) during the 1999–2010 period. We find that neither changes in earnings quality nor the earnings lack of timeliness hypothesis can explain the decline in the value relevance of accounting information in the KSE. Based on the stylized facts associated with the growth of the KSE and the broader economics literature, we argue that the reduction in the explanatory power of accounting information vis-à-vis stock returns was caused by herding behaviour. Empirical estimates from state-space model of herding behaviour confirm the existence of herding, and we find that the value relevance of accounting information is significantly lower in periods characterized by herding behaviour. This article is also amongst the first attempts to empirically demonstrate that an expansionary monetary policy and increases in foreign portfolio investment lead to increased levels of herding.     

Asymmetric quantile analysis of the Swedish mortgage price discovery process

Based on Swedish banking data we discover robust and significantly positive Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT) effects over all analysed regression quantiles of our mortgage interest rates, with even larger positive APT for the higher percentiles. The analysis was enabled through unique access to a Swedish bank's (SEB) own records of their true borrowing costs. Our central contribution is that there is a higher propensity for the bank to rapidly increase its mortgage interest rates for customers following an increase in its borrowing costs, compared with the propensity for the bank to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates subsequent to a corresponding borrowing cost decrease.     

Exclusive vs. independent agents: a separating equilibrium approach

We provide a separating equilibrium explanation for the existence of the independent insurance agent system despite the potentially higher costs of this system compared to those of the exclusive agents system (or direct underwriting). A model is developed assuming asymmetric information between insurers and insureds; the former do not know the riskiness of the latter. We also assume that the claims service provided by the independent agent system to its clients is superior to that offered by direct underwriting system, that is, insureds using the independent agent system are more likely to receive reimbursement of their claims. Competition compels the insurers to provide within their own system the best contract to the insured. It is shown that in equilibrium the safer insureds choose direct underwriting, whereas the riskier ones choose independent agents. The predictions of the model agree with previous research demonstrating that the independent agent system is costlier than direct underwriting. The present model suggests that this does not result from inefficiency but rather from self-selection. The empirical implication of this analysis is that, ceteris paribus, the incidence of claims made by clients of the independent agents system is higher than that of clients of direct underwriting. Implications for the coexistence of different distribution systems due to unbundling of services in other industries such as brokerage houses and the health care industry are discussed.     

On the robustness of alternative rankings methodologies: Australian and New Zealand economics departments, 1988 to 2002

Theoretical considerations appear to support the conjecture that stock returns are positively related to growth in the long run. However, the empirical literature does not give unanimous support to the theory. Based on a stochastic general equilibrium model it is argued that the long-run relationship between stock returns and per capita income growth is ambiguous and depends on output volatility. Using a century of data for 20 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries it is shown that the relationship between stock returns and growth is positive over the period 1916–1951, in which output volatility was persistent. Outside this period no relationship between stock returns and growth is found. These findings are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model.     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

NoteShort-term predictability of German stock returns

The paper investigates short-horizon individual stock returns; it exhibits statistically and economically significant autocorrelations, which for stock returns have so far been established mainly over long horizons, also for certain daily data, in particular between monday returns and various linear combinations of the previous week's returns.Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG); I am grateful to Ralf Runde for preparing the data and to Gerd Ronning and an anonymous referee for helpful criticism and comments.     

When Do Opening Stock Returns Tend to be Higher?

Abstract

In this study, I make an effort to formulate a trading rule that would make use of some systematic interday patterns in individual stocks’ opening returns. I analyze intraday price data on all the stocks that were S&P 500 Index constituents during the period from 1993 to 2012. I document that if the general market direction of the previous day's opening session is controlled for, then a stock's opening return tends to be higher if, on the previous trading day, its opening return was relatively high (either positive, or higher than the same day's opening market return) and its open-to-close return was relatively low (either non-positive, or lower than or equal to the same day's open-to-close market return). Finally, for the sampling period, I construct two different investment portfolios involving a long position in the stocks on the days when, according to the findings, their opening returns are expected to be high and a short position in the stocks on the days when, according to the findings, their opening returns are expected to be low. Both portfolios are found to yield significantly positive returns, providing evidence for the practical applicability of the documented patterns in opening stock prices.