Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis

This paper studies the determinants of individual bank failures and M&A processes in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s. Using bank-specific data we estimate competing risk hazards models and find that while profitability and capitalization are the most important determinants of the probability of failing, a bank's size, efficiency and capitalization are the main determinants of the probability of participating in an integration process. All else constant, an increase in capitalization reduces the probability of disappearing, whether due to the occurrence of bankruptcy, a merge or an acquisition. However, a marginal increase in capitalization reduces the probability of bankruptcy significantly more than the probability of integration. This study is the first to present a competing risks hazard model to identify covariates that excerpt significant influence on the probability of failing or merging for banks of an emerging economy.     

Long-Memory,Asymmetry and Fat-Tailed GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Global Real Estate Markets

In this paper, we address the question of whether long memory, asymmetry, and fat-tails in global real estate markets volatility matter when forecasting the two most popular measures of risk in financial markets, namely Value-at-risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ESF), for both short and long trading positions. The computations of both VaR and ESF are conducted with three long memory GARCH-class models including the Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH), Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH), and Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (FIAPARCH). These models are estimated under three alternative innovation’s distributions: normal, Student, and skewed Student. To test the efficacy of the forecast, we employ various backtesting methodologies. Our empirical findings show that considering for long memory, fat-tails, and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one-day-ahead VaR and ESF for both short and long trading positions. In particular, the forecasting ability analysis points out that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student distribution turns out to improve substantially the VaR and ESF forecasts. These results may have several potential implications for the market participants, financial institutions, and the government.

     

关系投资、内部控制与企业财务杠杆水平——基于关系契约与规则契约理论的经验证据

本文基于关系契约与规则契约的理论视角,以公司与前五大供应商/客户的购销比例作为关系投资的替代变量,探讨关系投资、内部控制及其交互作用对企业财务杠杆水平的影响,研究发现:供应商/客户的关系投资与财务杠杆具有负向关系,但当内部控制因素加入后,这种负向关系会因关系投资的角色不同发生变化,即供应商关系投资与内部控制存在互补效应,而客户关系投资与内部控制存在替代效应。同时,相对于非国有企业,国有企业的供应商关系投资治理机制与内部控制治理机制对降低企业财务杠杆水平的互补效应更明显,而国有企业的客户关系投资治理机制与内部控制治理机制对降低企业财务杠杆水平存在明显的替代效应。     

Regional Liquidity Risk and Covered Interest Parity During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Tokyo,London, and New York*

ABSTRACT

During the global financial crisis, there were substantial deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) condition. In particular, in the post-Lehman period, the US dollar interest rate became very low on the forward market. However, the deviations from the CIP condition varied across markets. After presenting a simple model, the following analysis examines how the CIP condition between the Japanese yen and the US dollar was violated in Tokyo, London, and New York markets. We show that the CIP deviations became largest in the New York market soon after the Lehman shock but were largest in the Tokyo market in the rest of the turmoil period. The regressions suggest that market-specific credit risks and central banks’ liquidity provisions explained the difference across the markets. In particular, they indicate that larger dollar-specific risk and smaller yen-specific risk caused larger deviations in the Tokyo market.     

金融危机冲击与企业现金持有的动态调整

运用动态面板模型及系统GMM估计方法,得出不同财务特征的企业在解释现金持有及动态调整速度与成本方面的差异,发现金融危机会显著增加公司调整持有现金的成本。进一步分析显示,正常状况下公司进行现金调整的资金来源主要依靠银行贷款与经营性现金流量,但在金融危机冲击时,中国上市公司对银行融资性资金来源的依赖更为明显,这与我国以银行为主体的间接融资方式相一致。     

Inequality,Redistribution, and the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts for Austria

In this paper, we provide novel findings regarding the distributional effects of the global financial and economic crisis and how redistribution operated during this time, using detailed data for Austria. We construct distributional national accounts for the period 2004–2016 by combining survey data, tabulated tax data, and detailed national accounts data. The comprehensive data set allows us to analyze the distribution of macroeconomic income growth across the income distribution and to explore the evolution of income inequality over time. Our results suggest that as the distribution of growth changed over time, this had considerable repercussions for inequality, which started to decline at the very beginning of the economic and financial crisis, but increased again after 2012. We find that capital income largely determined both the level and the dynamics of income inequality. Government spending was found to play a key role for redistributive effects across the income distribution. In particular, in-kind transfers redistributed pre-tax income to a large extent. Our results show further that individuals with lower educational levels and younger individuals faced negative growth in pre-tax income over the years and also benefited considerably from redistribution.     

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance

Global current account imbalances have recently been singled out by many as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have put significant downward pressure on world interest rates, thereby fueling a credit boom and risk taking in major advanced economies with current account deficits (the “excess saving” view). We argue that this perspective on global imbalances bears reconsideration. We highlight two conceptual problems: (i) explaining market interest rates through the saving-investment framework; and (ii) drawing inferences about a country's cross-border financing activity based on observations of net capital flows. We trace the shortcomings of this perspective to a failure to consider the distinguishing characteristics of a monetary (credit) economy. We conjecture that the main macroeconomic cause of the financial crisis was not “excess saving” but the “excess elasticity” of the international monetary and financial system.     

Regional Integration Agreements,Trade Flows and Economic Crisis: A Static and Dynamic Gravity Model

Regional trade agreements (RTA) strengthening is a crucial component of the contemporary global economy. These agreements are considered beneficial in many senses (economics: trade, FDI, growth, etc.) and are a stabilizing factor in international relations (politics). In this paper, I study the effects of RTAs on exports between members and non-members taking into account the Viner specification. I also try to estimate the effect of the recent economic crisis on the export flows and achievement of RTAs. I use a static and dynamic gravity model to 40 countries belonging to 6 heterogeneous RTAs for the period 1980–2011. This model is estimated taking into account the latest estimation techniques that treats endogeneity effects of integration and the existence of dynamic effect.     

Comparative Capitalisms,Ideational Political Economy and French Post-Dirigiste Responses to the Global Financial Crisis

This article advances the case for the more systematic incorporation of ideational factors into comparative capitalisms analysis as a corrective to the rational choice proclivities of the Varieties of Capitalism approach. It demonstrates the pay-off of such an ideationally attuned approach through analysis of French capitalist restructuring over the last 25 years, placing it in comparative context. A modus operandi for such ideational explanation is elaborated through delineating different national conceptions of the market, and setting out their impacts on practices of market-making. The claim made in this article is that understanding the evolution of French capitalism requires recognition of the ongoing market-making role of the French State, in combination with the French conception of the market and its embedding within a social context characterised by the inter-penetration of public and private elitist networks of France's ‘financial network economy’ which remains substantially intact. The ideational dimension is crucial because French understandings of the market and competition, the ideational building blocks of market-making, inform French state interventions and leave footprints on French institutions and market structures, and the evolutionary trajectory of French capitalism. In charting this trajectory, this article deploys the concept of post-dirigisme. We map out the parameters and causes of the post-dirigiste condition in France through examination of French bond market development, privatisation, the shift from a government- to a market- dominated financial system, and French capitalism's internationalisation. It then uses post-dirigisme to explain French state responses to the financial crisis and the banking bailout, noting how state actors, in concert with the banking elites, actively facilitated dominant market positions of French international champions.     

Global Financial Crisis and ASEAN: Fiscal Policy Response in the Case of Thailand and Indonesia

Sound macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, plus quick and forceful fiscal policy responses contributed to Thailand's and Indonesia's economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This paper reviews the impacts of the recent global financial crisis on the Thai and Indonesian economies, and identifies the characteristics of the fiscal stimulus package in each economy and their implications to counter the negative impact of the global financial crisis.     

铜陵市金融发展、城镇化及工业化动态关系研究--基于VAR模型的实证分析

通过建立VAR模型,利用Johansen协整理论、脉冲响应分析、预测方差分解分析等技术分析了1986-2013年铜陵市金融发展、城镇化及工业化之间的动态关系。实证显示：铜陵市金融发展、城镇化及工业化三个变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;金融发展水平对来自城镇化水平的随机扰动具有正的效应,城镇化水平对来自工业化水平的随机扰动也具有正的效应,且这种效应均是开始不断增强,随后逐渐减弱;反之城镇化及工业化水平的提升对金融发展起的作用越来越重要,进而提出政策建议。     

国际金融危机背景下我国促进就业增长政策效应影响因素的实证分析

在2008年的次贷危机背景下,我国采取了一系列政策促进就业与经济增长,并取得了显著的效果。为了探寻政策实施效应影响因素及相互关系,在问卷调查的基础上,运用主成分分析提取了8个主要因素,并把8个因素分为政策因素与经济因素两个方面,运用典型相关分析方法分析二者之间的关系,提出了提高政府决策效率等相应政策建议。     

社会价值观·企业价值观管理价值观·会计价值观——基于全球金融危机视角的文献述评

会计实务取决于会计准则,会计准则取决于会计价值观,会计价值观取决于管理价值观,管理价值观又取决于企业价值观,企业价值观最终取决于社会价值观.全球金融危机引发了我们必须洞察当今世界会计价值观形成与发展的路径依赖,探讨会计价值观的真谛,寻找培育正确会计价值观的有效途径,以便从根本上保证会计信息的真实性,促进资本市场的健康发展,遏制金融风暴的进一步蔓延,进而提高经济运行效率,推动社会和谐的进程.     

盈余管理程度的估计模型与经验证据:一个综述

盈余管理是一个与投资者保护和会计准则制定紧密相关的重要问题,它已经成为会计乃至金融、经济领域的重要研究课题。要研究在经济上具有意义的盈余管理,其前提是估计盈余管理的程度。本文对盈余管理程度的估计方法及其相应的经验证据进行评述,文献评述结果表明,非预期应计利润模型能够估计出单个公司的盈余管理程度,但它无法估计经济上具有意义的盈余管理程度;盈余分布法是目前估计盈余管理程度的核心方法,它能够估计出整体上的盈余管理程度,但它假设真实盈余分布是光滑的。盈余管理程度估计的未来研究,需要剔除盈余指标选择以及标准化方法选择等因素的影响,解决在同时存在多个阈值情况下不同阈值之间相互关联的影响问题,并放宽模型的假设或者给假设提供直接的证据。     

Adverse Welfare Shocks and Pro‐Environmental Behavior: Evidence from the Global Economic Crisis

This paper examines the effects of the 2008–9 global economic crisis on people's pro‐environmental behavior and willingness to pay for climate change mitigation. We hypothesize that the crisis has affected pro‐environmental behaviors through tightening of budget constraints and relaxation of time constraints. Using data from a large representative survey Life in Transition II, conducted in 35 European and Central Asian countries in 2010, we find that people adversely affected by the crisis are more likely to act in an environmentally‐friendly way, but less likely to be willing to pay for climate change mitigation. Our findings confirm the importance of time and budget constraints for undertaking pro‐environmental action, and highlight a potentially positive role of adverse, external welfare shocks in shaping pro‐environmental behavior.     

中国金融发展与收入分配、贫困关系的经验分析——基于动态面板数据的研究

本文利用2001—2007年中国省际面板数据,运用系统的广义矩(GMM)估计方法,研究金融发展对收入分配和贫困的影响。结果发现,中国的金融发展更有利于贫困家庭收入水平的提高,减少收入分配不平等。贫困家庭的收入增长大约有31%可以归因于金融发展的收入分配效应,而剩下的69%是由于金融发展的增长效应所致。另外,没有证据表明金融发展与收入分配存在倒U型关系。在非农产业比重高的省份,金融发展会加剧贫富差距。     

全球金融危机与国际贸易保护:兼与1929-1933年大萧条的比较

全球金融危机爆发后,贸易保护主义悄然在世界范围内蔓延,自由的国际贸易体系受到了强烈的冲击。这种贸易保护主义是否会重蹈1929-1933年大萧条时期世界性贸易战的覆辙?通过对此次金融危机和1929-1933年大萧条时期的国际贸易保护进行比较研究,作者认为由于在危机爆发后可供选择的宏观经济政策工具、国际贸易的约束规则、国际生产体系、国际协调机制和应对金融危机的经验等方面与大萧条时期存在着不同,虽然此次金融危机爆发后有国际贸易保护的趋势,但由此引发1929-1933年大萧条那样的世界性贸易战的可能性较小。然而,国际经济界仍要防微杜渐,采取有利措施来应对贸易保护主义。     

股权激励与财务重述——基于中国A股市场上市公司的经验证据

本文以2005—2007年中国A股市场实施股权激励的上市公司及其配对样本为研究对象,采用Logistic回归法,考察了股权激励与财务重述的相关关系。研究发现,实施股权激励的公司发生财务重述的可能性要显著高于未实施股权激励的公司;相比基于业绩的股权激励模式,实施基于股价的股权激励模式的公司发生财务重述的可能性更高。研究结论支持了有股权激励尤其有基于股价的股权激励模式的上市公司经营者可能有短期盈余操纵行为的观点。     

Financial development,political rights,civil liberties and economic growth: Evidence from South Asia

A number of existing studies have examined the theoretical link between financial development and economic growth. Kose et al. (2010), among others, have argued that financial development can affect the extent of the benefits from foreign direct investment. Other studies, such as Huang (2010) have suggested that the quality of political institutions can also affect the level of financial development. This implies that the extent of the benefits from financial development also depend on the quality of governance. However, few empirical studies have considered these issues. By making use of panel data over the period 1970 to 2009, this paper focuses on the impact of the interaction of (i) financial development and foreign direct investment and (ii) financial development and the quality of governance on economic growth in South Asia. Our empirical analysis, suggests that financial development has contributed to an increase in the benefits of FDI in South Asia. In addition, improvement in political rights and civil liberties has also enhanced the benefits of financial development in South Asia.     

Inflation, Shadow Prices and the EMU: Evidence From Greece

The paper examines whether inflation systematically distorts the informational content of price signals. A shadow cost function is specified, and the deviation of shadow from actual prices is modeled as a function of the level of economy‐wide inflation, as well as other conditioning variables like budget deficits and changes in inflation rate. It is found that inflation is associated with significant allocative costs in most Greek manufacturing sectors. Measures of cost gains resulting from Greece's convergence towards the EMU are provided and the policy implications are explored.