De vraag Naar Hypothecair krediet en de Rentevorming of de Hypotheekmarkt

Summary This paper presents an econometric model for the Dutch mortgage market. It comprises demand equations for housing and other mortgages, estimated over the period 1965II–1974I, a mortgage rate equation and a set of equations describing the allocation of mortgage credit over four categories of financial institutions. For the demand for mortgages on houses we found a long-term interest elasticity of –1.14 and for the demand for other mortgages one of – 0.58. Mortgage rate differentials seem to influence the distribution of mortgages over the financial institutions. However, the main determinant is the share of new deposits going to commercial banks.

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De schrijvers zijn verbonden aan de Nederlandsche Bank. Drs. Den Butter en drs. Dongelmans zijn medewerkers van de econometrische researchgroep. Dr. Fase is directie-assistent voor wetenschappelijk onderzoek en hoofd van deze groep. Gaarne betuigen we onze dank aan de heren mr. Th. A. Hoog en ir. N. Snijders, indertijd resp. voorzitter en bestuurslid van de Vereniging van Hypotheekbanken, voor hun bereidwilligheid met de beide laatstgenoemde auteurs van gedachten te wisselen over de structuur en werking van de hypotheekmarkt. De heer M. J. Broekhuisen was ons behulpzaam bij het bijeenbrengen van de gegevens en de uitvoering van de talloze berekeningen die tijdens het onderzoek zijn verricht. Een referee zijn we erkentelijk voor een aantal nuttige opmerkingen.     

De Vraag Naar Liquiditeiten in Nederland, 1952–1971

Summary This study examines the demand for money (broadly defined) in the Netherlands. The basic model assumes the long run demand for money to depend upon expected real income and prices, the rate of interest and a cyclical indicator. The actual money balances approach equilibrium with an exponentially distributed lag. The model is estimated with seasonally adjusted quarterly data covering the period 1952: I-1971:IV. We found an income elasticity of 0.85 and an interest elasticity of –0.20, a price elasticity close to 1 and a negative correlation between the demand for money and the cyclical indicator. We also found some statistical evidence for the hypothesis that the demand function is stable over time.

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De auteurs zijn hoofd resp. medewerker van de sectie wetenschappelijk onderzoek en econometrie op De Nederlandsche Bank N.V. Ze zijn de heer N. J. A. van der Hoeven veel dank verschuldigd voor zijn hulp bij de uitvoering van de berekeningen.     

Herverdelingspolitiek van hoofdzaak naar bijzaak?

Summary A more equitable personal distribution cannot be achieved exclusively by a general incomes policy which changes primary distribution only. In that case people that have left the labour force are beyond the scope of incomes policy because their incomes often consist of transfers. Neither can redistribution instruments be considered as pseudo-policies for these groups. An effective incomes policy will therefore have not only to bring about fundamental changes in the conditions of supply and demand on the factor markets, but to make use of transfers as well.

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Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar in de staathuishoudkunde aan de Nederlandse Economische Hogeschool te Rotterdam op 20 april 1972.     

Recente ontwikkelingen in de micro-economie

Summary This article provides a nonmathematical survey of the system-wide approach to microeconomics. The allocation character of consumption theory is emphasized and is related to similar characteristics of other areas in the social sciences. The measurement of the change in the quality of consumption is discussed, and also the independence transformation which describes the consumer's preferences and the firm's technology in the simplest possible form. The system-wide approach is compared with conventional economy-wide macromodels.

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Hennipman-lezing gehouden op 17 maart 1979 aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam.     

Een terugblik op Mr. N. G. Pierson

Summary Dr. Holtrop's address on the occasion of the award of the Dr. N. G. Pierson medal to Professor C. Goedhart and to Professor G. A. Kessler answers the question why it is still meaningful to commemorate Dr. N. G. Pierson (1839–1909), the foremost Dutch economist of the 19th century. Pierson was successively a managing director and later governor of the Nederlandsche Bank (1868–1891), a professor of economics (1877–1886), a minister of finance (1891–1894 and 1897–1901) and a prime-minister (1897–1901). A brief outline is given of Pierson's publications in the fields of (1) methodology, (2) the social problem, (3) the international monetary system, and (4) equitable taxation. The address concludes with a quotation from Alfred Marshall's last letter to Pierson.

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Oud-president van de Nederlandsche Bank.

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Tekst van een toespraak, gehouden als voorzitter van de Stichting Mr. N. G. Pierson Fonds, ter gelegenheid van de uitreiking der Mr. N. G. Pierson-penning aan Prof. dr. C. Goedhart en aan Prof. dr. G. A. Kessler op 15 september 1978 in het gebouw van De Nederlandsche Bank te Amsterdam. De inleiding van de toespraak is enigszins verkort weergegeven.     

Een Actief Arbeidsmarktbeleid

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Active labour market policy in The Netherlands

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Referaat gehouden voor de jaarlijkse bijeenkomst van de Vereniging van Afgestudeerden der N.E.H. te Rotterdam, op 17 Mei 1967.     

UitDe Economist van 1894

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Fromde Economisst in 1894

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Twee vergaderingen van voorstanders van het bimetallisme, blz. 522–532.

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translated by Richard Gigengack     

Marktanalyse en markttheorie

Summary The introduction of expectations in market theory has increased its dynamic nature and realism. It is argued that only the incorporation of historical time in the theory will suggest the market development patterns needed by analysts. Dynamic market theory can usefully be based on the development stages of the product cycle. The scope of such a theory is much wider than is currently acknowledged. It comprises entrepreneurial theory, the theory of profits, competition and industrial change, and provides the building blocks of a theory of international business. The application of methods of analysis in the various stages of market development is mentioned.

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Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van lector in de bedrijfshuishoudkunde aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam op 27 april 1971. Prof. Dr. P. Hennipman heeft door zijn critische opmerkingen wezenlijk bijgedragen tot de formulering en nuancering van het gegeven betoog.     

The Netherlands Bank's narrow monetary policy

Summary In his article Mr. Timmerman describes the way the Netherlands Bank conducts its so-called narrow monetary policy,i.e. the policy pursued in the money and foreign exchange markets. The developments during the period October 1979–July 1981 serve as example of how movements in Dutch money market rates are dominated by exogenous factors. The author concludes that in a small open economy which maintains a stable exchange rate there is no room for an independent money market policy and that the hectic developments in the international money and foreign exchange markets have made illusory what until very recently was regarded as the most important objective of the narrow monetary policy,viz. an orderly money market. P.C. Timmerman was Deputy Director of De Nederlandsche Bank N.V. and is now Managing Director of De Bank van de Nederlandse Antillen. A similar article by the author appeared inZoeklicht op beleid, liber amicorum in honour of Professor G.A. Kessler.     

Economie en vooruitgangsidee

Summary The object of this article is the relation between economic science and the idea of progress in western civilization. That relation can clearly be observed in classical economic theory (influenced by the Enlightment) and the modern theory of growth (Golden Age Economics). The author rejects any identification of economic progress with an unlimited increase of GNP. He proposes a link between the idea of economic progress and the divine mandate of stewardship, which implies that the inter-subjective scarcity of non-renewable resources and environmental factors should constantly be taken into account. He concludes with some remarks about economic growth as a goal of economic policy.

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Rede uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar aan de Vrije Universiteit op 10 maart 1972.     

Onzekerheid en Investeringsbeslissingen

Summary In the article an attempt is made to throw some light on the role of uncertainty in making investment decisions. At first a critical analysis is given of the present value method and some other conventional rules of thumb. As the discounting process needs a unique income stream, which is not available, the present value method must be rejected. The expected value of the possible income streams cannot be regarded as an adequate solution for this problem. Moreover it is quite impossible to choosethe appropriate discount rate: in case uncertainty is involved, an objective discount rate must be considered as non-existing. With respect to the rules of thumb such as the maximin criterion of gain, it is also to be concluded, that subjectivity plays a key role. The use of a cardinal utility function in determining investment volume demonstrates once more, how important the subjective element is in the theory of investment. Apart from examining several proposed decision criteria the author is considering, how the entrepreneur arrives at the probability judgment concerning the possible outcomes of the project. For this purpose the theory, developed by Fellner, in which subjective and objective (based on frequency observations) probability judgments are blended, is critically analysed.

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Dit artikel is een bewerking van een door de auteur geleverde bijdrage aan de op 12 januari 1968 aan de Katholieke Hogeschool te Tilburg gehouden conferentie voor theoretische economie. Gaarne betuig ik hierbij mijn dank aan Prof. Dr. Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert voor zijn stimulerende kritiek.     

Produktie,kapitaal en interest

Summary As recent discussions show the theory of capital is still an important issue. Surveys by among others Harcourt and Dobb have brought the main themes of this theory before a larger audience. This paper aims at the same purpose. Apart from being written in Dutch the difference with the other surveys lies in the rigourous application of a two-sector model with heterogeneous capital with respect to all the questions raised.Section two of the paper is devoted to the critique of neo-classical theory by J. Robinson and D. G. ChampernowneIs answer in the form of the chain index method to measure capital. P. A. Samuelson's surrogate production function and P. Garegnani's refutation of it are discussed in the next section. The final section on technical matters deals with the relation between capital intensity and the rate of interest. In this setting attention is paid to the famous reswitching debate in the late sixties.In a concluding section the meaning of the central controversy is emphasized. For, as P. Sraffa has shown, it is not only the theory of income distribution which is highly vulnerable but also the whole foundation of micro-economics by the neo-classical authors that goes with it. This is what makes the whole dispute so fascinating.

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Met dank und Drs. A. van Schaik voor de stimulerende kritiek.     

Conjunctuur,structuur en economische groei

Summary In cross section analyses of economic growth, based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, only a minor part of the differences between the growth rates of the countries is explained by changes in the volumes of labour and capital input. In this article an effort has been made to reduce the unexplained residuals with the help of a simple growth model, containing four new elements as compared with the traditional analyses, based on the application of the Cobb-Douglas production function only. Firstly, to the concept of investment has been added a qualitative dimension, which represents its more or less traditional or “progressive” character, with which is meant the extent to which the latest technological findings have been applied in it. Secondly, the change in volume and quality of capital input has been considered as an endogenous variable. Thirdly, thefluctuation in economic growth has been introduced,via the investment equation, as an explaining variable of thepace of economic growth. The underlying philosophy is that the entrepreneurs base their quantitative and qualitative investment decisions on the pace of economic growth, corrected by the extent to which they fear set-backs in that growth. This fear is assumed to be founded on their past experience in this respect, as represented by a fluctuation-index. Finally, the sectorial structure of the economy has been introduced into the aggregate production function as an explaining variable of the autonomous trend of gross national product. The model has been tested in a cross section analysis for 17 Western European and North American countries, with the least squares method. The result was very satisfactory.

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Dit artikel vormt gedeeltelijk een weerslag van door de schrijver op het Nederlandsch Economisch Instituut onder auspici?n van N.V. Philips en Unilever N.V. verrichte groeistudies.     

Woonruimte,huren en woonwensen van Amsterdamse Gezinnen in 1962

Summary This is an analysis of the sample survey returns of some 200 homogeneous households who were asked for both actual and desired housing accomodation and rent, for their intention to move and for their income. These households are divided into four groups by two family sizes and by the intention to move, and several relations are studied by a covariance analysis based on the individual household data. The main objects of the analysis are (i) to establish Engel curves for housing space (number of rooms) and quality (rent per room), (ii) to compare these relations for actual and desired values, and (iii) to assess what rent levels would be acceptable in the absence of rent control which is still enforced. The main result is that the households' wishes follow the same pattern as their actual conditions; the income elasticity of quantity demand for housing varies from .25 to .40 with family size and with the intention to move; for the desired accommodation the same elasticity is about .30. The income elasticity of housing quality (rent per room) is uniformly .35 for all households and for both actual conditions and the households wishes. The maximum acceptable rent level — which varies from 20% to 15% of income — is finally obtained by determining at what level desired rent and actual rent coincide so that the household does not envisage a further increase in housing expenditure.

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Gaarne betuig ik mijn dank aan de Gemeentelijke Woningdienst van Amsterdam, die de gegevens beschikbaar stelde; aan de heer M. F. Koeman, die de berekeningen uitvoerde en met name tot de laatste paragrafen van dit artikel veel bijdroeg; en aan de heer A. Pais, die het onderzoek met stimulerend commentaar begeleidde.     

De arbeid van vrouwen en kinderen in Groot-Brittannie

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Vervolg van blz. 59.     

Nederland en Duitschland aan de Eems

Groningen.Der Hafen von Emden, Festschrift zur Eröffnung des neuen Emder Seehafens —C. Swegkendieck. Uitgegeven op last der Pruisische regeering. Emden, Deutschlands neues Seethor im Westen, seine See-bedeutung einst und jetzt.Von Palmgrên Emden und Borkum 1901, Verlag vonW. Haynel. Ontwerp voor de verbetering van de haven te Delfzijl van de ingenieursJ. van Hasselt ende Koning Nijmegen bijG. J. Thieme. Verslag van den toestand der Provincie Groningen over de jaren 1899 en 1900.     

über die Theorie des Wirtschaftlichen Wachstums und Ihre Bedeutung

Summary The study is devoted to the theory of economic growth and its relevance to pure and applied theory. It is maintained that by trying to explain the development of the factors of production the theory of growth represents an important generalization of the static theory of general equilibrium. The main conceptual categories and specific methods of growth theory are shown to be the examination of the existence and stability of growth equilibrium and of comparative dynamics. As far as applied theory is concerned the principle conclusions are the following: economic models devised to explain a country's economic development should be based on the theory of growth rather than on an entirely Keynesian business cycle approach. This does not seem to be generally realised, since the majority of macro-economic models is of basically Keynesian nature. On the other hand the theory of growth needs to be supplemented by a theory of business cycles, because the actual economic development exhibits growth as well as fluctuations. Although great stress is laid on the essential role of the growth theory in any attempt to explain a country's economic development, it is doubted whether the theory can as yet be usefully applied to practical situations. There remain a number of unsolved problems (of measurement etc.) typically connected with the theory of economic growth. While this may, for the time being, prevent the theory from being put to practical use, it in no way affects its basic validity.

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Gastcollege, gegeven aan de Faculteit de Economische Wetenschappen van de Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen op 11 mei 1967.     

Die Grundgeldmenge — Ein neuer Indikator der Geldpolitik

Summary The Base Money Stock - A New Indicator of Monetary Policy. - This paper analyzes the indicator properties of alternative base money concepts used by the German Council of Economic Experts and by the Deutsche Bundesbank. Both concepts are flawed by an inadequate treatment of changes in legal reserve requirements. As a result, the direct contribution of monetary policy to money growth has been continuously understated by the Council’s indicator, during recent years, while the Bundesbank’s central bank money stock has moved between understating (1983, 1984) and overstating (1982, 1985) the policy contribution. Finally, a superior base money measure is proposed which combines the source base with a multiplier based on a logarithmic reserve adjustment.

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Résumé La masse monétaire debase - un nouvel indicateur de la politique monétaire. — Dans cet article l’auteur analyse les propriétés d’indicateur des approches alternatives de la monnaie de base utilisées par le Conseil Allemand des Experts Economiques et par la Banque Centrale de la RFA. Les deux approches sont préjudiciées par le traitement inadéquat des changements en réserves de caisse obligatoires. Comme résultat, l’indicateur du Conseil a contin?ment sous-estimé la contribution directe de la politique monétaire à l’expansion de la masse monétaire dans des années récentes, pendant que le stock de monnaie de la banque centrale utilisé par la Banque Centrale a fluctué entre une sous-estimation (1983, 1984) et une sur-estimation (1982, 1985). Enfin, l’auteur propose une mesure supérieure de la monnaie de base qui combine la base de source avec un multiplicateur basé sur un ajustement de réserve logarithmique.

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Resumen La base monetaria: un nuevo indicador par la polftica monetaria. - En este trabajo se analizan las propiedades de distintos conceptos de base monetaria utilizados por el Consejo Alemán de Asesores Económicos y por el Banco Central Alemán. La debilidad de ambos conceptos consiste en que no logran tratar adecuadamente a los cambios del encaje legal. Por esta razón, la contributión directa de la política monetaria al crecimiento de la oferta monetaria ha sido continuamente subestimada por el indicador utilizado por el Consejo en los a?os recientes, mientras que el indicador utilizado por el Banco Central ha estado subestimando (1983, 1984) y sobreestimando (1982, 1985) el aporte de esta política. Finalmente, se propone un indicador de la base monetaria que combina la base con un multiplicador con ajuste logarítmico del encaje.

     

Voorlezingen over de Economie

Het komt mij voor, dat de onderscheidene kringen van menschelijke kennis en bedrijf allen door de ééne goddelijke waarheid worden ingesloten. Doch ieder van die kringen heeft zijne bijzondere wetten, die onze werkzaamheid binnen denzelven regelen, en die niet dan door eene lange opklimming van tusschenleden zamenhangen met den hoogsten wil.Thorbecke ann Groen.     

De samenhang tussen rentestanden in Nederland 1962–1970

Summary This paper examines the question how much independent variation exists among observed market interest rates in the Netherlands. Therefore a particular form of factor analysis, viz. principal component analysis, has been applied to a time series of monthly data for the period 1962–1970. Ten money market rates as well as ten capital market rates are analysed separately. By doing this we have found that on the money market about 96% of total variation is explained by the first component; an additional percentage of 2 is explained by the second principal component. For the capital market these percentages are 90 and 8. Similar results are obtained when subperiods are studied or when the money and capital market are pooled together.The main insights to be gained by this analysis are the following. First our results suggest that the first component identifies the true interest rate. The second principal component, which is highly correlated with the rate of return on shares, reflects the risk aspect of the rate of interest. The third component seemsto be related to the rate of inflation. The second results is that our analysis shows that the use of many different interest rates in macro models has only a limited economic meaning. The this conclusion is that the usual textbook distinction between money and capital markets does not show up in the principal components obtained.Ik ben veel dank verschuldigd aan de heren P. M. Cambeen en R. L. Coenen, medewerkers op de Studiedienst van de Nederlandsche Bank N.V., die mij behulpzaam zijn geweest bij het uitvoeren van de berekeningen voor dit onderzoek. Vanzelfsprekend komen eventuele tekortkomingen geheel voor miju rekening.