The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.     

A novel model to estimate the impact of Coal Seam Gas extraction on agro-economic returns

There is an ever growing demand for energy worldwide and the demand for gas alone is predicted to double between 2010 and 2035. This demand together with concurrent advances in drilling technologies caused the production of unconventional natural gas such as shale gas and coal seam gas (CSG), which is in the focus of this paper, to grow rapidly in the last decades. With the gas bearing coal seams extending across vast areas within their respective basins and with CSG production having to follow these seams through a network of production wells, pipelines and access roads, CSG activity affects large areas and therefore interferes with existing land uses, predominantly agriculture. For the eastern Australian Surat Basin and the southern Bowen Basin alone there are projected well numbers in excess of 15,000 to 20,000 between the years 2020 and 2030. The interference of CSG with agriculture on a large scale has raised concerns about the impact of CSG on farmland, food security, water resources and the socio-economic environment within the affected regions and beyond. This paper presents a newly developed spatial model which provides order of magnitude figures of the impact of CSG activity on gross economic returns of current agricultural land uses in a given region over the time of CSG production. The estimated gross figures do not account for any compensation payments received by farmers. The model is capable of accounting for a variation in a variety of parameters including impact frequency of distinct infrastructure elements, differences in soil types and associated varying responses of soil productivity, varying length of the CSG production phase and more. The model is flexible in that it can be transferred and applied in other regions as well. Based upon a literature review and given that CSG is an industry that started operating at larger scales relatively recently, we claim that the presented model is the first of its kind to provide these important agro-economic indicators.     

Acceptance of genetically modified food: comparing consumer perspectives in the United States and South Korea

This study examines public perceptions of biotechnology, specifically the consumer approval of genetically modified food products, from plant as well as from animal origin, based on data collected from national surveys conducted in both the United States and South Korea. South Korean consumers reported better understanding of food production, science, and technology relative to U.S. consumers. South Korean consumers also recalled having heard more about genetic modification than did U.S. consumers. Findings also suggest that consumers in the United States and South Korea who possessed an accurate knowledge of the applications and outcomes of genetic modification technology were more likely to approve of its use for the creation of foods than those who had inaccurate or no knowledge of the technology. Results also indicate that consumers who considered labeling of genetically modified foods to be necessary are less likely to approve of the genetic modification of foods than those who did not. Consumers in both countries are less approving of genetic modification of animals than the genetic modification of plants. However, U.S. consumers are more approving of using genetic modification technology to create animal‐derived foods than are South Korean consumers.     

A trait-based model of the potential demand for a genetically engineered food crop in a developing economy

We predict the potential demand of smallholder farmers for genetically transformed varieties of a food crop, the cooking banana of the East African highlands. Farmer demand for planting material is derived in an agricultural household model that accounts for variety traits and missing markets. The demand for candidate host varieties is predicted using a Zero‐Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression system. The fitted model is used to illustrate the sensitivity of farmer demand for improved planting material to (a) investments in research and development, represented by the effectiveness of gene insertion and expression, and (b) other public investments in education, extension, and market infrastructure that support diffusion. By comparing the characteristics of agricultural households we demonstrate that the choice of host variety can have social consequences, favoring one rural population compared with another. Clients for transgenic banana planting material are likely to be poorer, subsistence‐oriented farmers in areas greatly affected by biotic constraints. A model of this type might be useful in assessing the investments needed to support the systematic dissemination of improved planting material. The approach can be generalized to other crop biotechnologies for smallholder farming systems, particularly in developing economies.     

我国水产品贸易对农业经济增长影响的实证研究——基于1980—2008年数据的协整分析

本文根据1980—2008年的时间序列数据,对我国水产品贸易对农业经济增长的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明我国水产品进口、出口和总贸易量与农业经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。在此基础上,还对各变量之间进行了Granger因果检验,表明水产品的进口与农业经济增长是单向的格兰杰因果关系。     

The consequences of a human food pathogen vaccine on food demand: a calibrated partial‐equilibrium analysis of the U.S. beef market

Human vaccines against several common foodborne pathogens are being developed and could substantially alter consumer and producer behaviour in the markets for foods commonly afflicted by these pathogens. To understand the possible impacts of such an innovation, we derive and calibrate a partial‐equilibrium model using parameters for consumer vaccine uptake from stated‐preference work under an array of assumptions concerning industry moral hazard, consumer awareness and alternative preventive effort exercised by consumers. We simulate three scenarios in the U.S. beef sector: the introduction of a vaccine, the tightening of pathogen standards for beef production and the simultaneous introduction of both vaccinations and tighter standards. Our simulation shows that all policies can increase aggregate surplus given most calibrations; though, the largest effects are attributed to vaccine introductions, which reduce expected damages from foodborne illness among vaccinated consumers without shifting firm costs. However, unaware consumers and aware consumers who choose not to vaccinate experience no change in expected damages when a vaccine is introduced but face a higher price of food because of the stronger demand of food from vaccinated consumers.     

The effects of expenditure growth and urbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note on animal products

Consumption functions for total animal-derived food products were estimated for six East Asian countries. Incorporation of urbanisation was found to make a significant contribution to the functions. The urbanisation elasticities were always positive, indicating that the process of urbanisation had a positive effect on the demand for animal food products. The expenditure elasticities were also positive, but often less than they would be if estimated from consumption functions that excluded the effects of urbanisation. Thus, projections of consumption that ignore the influence of urbanisation may be biased.     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

The law of one price: a test based on prices for selected inputs in New Zealand agriculture

The law of one price (LOOP) is an essential foundation of both the pure theory of trade and monetary theory. Strictly speaking, the law relates to prices of individual commodities. However, empirical tests of LOOP have often relied on aggregated data. In this paper, a model is derived and estimated using price data for 15 selected inputs in New Zealand agriculture. The results offer no support for the LOOP in the short run, and the results for the long run are mixed. It may be inappropriate, therefore, to assume that the LOOP holds generally in modelling exercises, particularly when models are used for policy purposes.     

Regional obesity determinants in the United States: a model of myopic addictive behavior in food consumption

Obesity is considered one of the largest public health problems in the United States today. The premise for our study is a body of results from medical research showing that sweetened foods, i.e., an increased consumption of sugars, leads first to sugar addiction and second to carbohydrate addiction and increased consumption of fats. The latter feature is actually responsible for the increase in body mass index (BMI), but the trigger that produces cravings for extra calories is sugar and sweeteners. Based on our results, a myopic model of addictive behavior in food consumption seems to capture the food consuming habits and related outbreak of obesity among the American population. Our results indicate that lower current and past real prices of sugar contribute significantly to higher values of BMI, and increase the likelihood of becoming obese in the United States.     

农产品外贸依存度的国际比较及政府行为分析——兼论农业对我国社会经济发展的贡献

与发达国家相比，我国农产品的国际商品率并不高，谷物类、肉类、果菜类等主要农产品的出口依存度、进口依存度仍然很低，尚未完全摆脱生产经营单元过于细碎的自然经济格局。通过农产品外贸依存度的国际比较，本文探讨了农产品对外贸易对社会经济发展的贡献及政府行为的选择问题，以求改变我国农产品外贸依存度过低的现实。     

A response to Doole and Marsh () article: methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture

A recent paper by Doole and Marsh (2013), questioned the validity of using the New Zealand Forest and Agriculture Regional Model (NZFARM) for New Zealand agri‐environmental policy analysis. We respond to their critique by clearly describing the model structure, explaining the NZFARM parameterisation, calibration, and validation procedure, and presenting estimates from a series of nutrient reduction policy scenarios to highlight the utility of the model. In doing so, we demonstrate that NZFARM generates logical and intuitive results that can be used for robust agri‐environmental policy decision‐making.     

The impact of decoupled subsidies on productivity in agriculture: a cross‐country analysis using microdata

The decoupling of direct payments from production introduced in the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is expected to make production decisions more market‐oriented and farmers more productive. However, ex‐post analyses of the productivity of farms have yet to uncover any evidence of a positive impact of the decoupling policy on farm productivity. Using Irish, Danish, and Dutch farm‐level data, we identify whether the decoupling policy has contributed to productivity growth in agriculture and farm product adjustment behavior. We find some evidence that the decoupling policy had significant positive effects on farm productivity and behavioral changes related to farm specialization.     

Assessing the returns to R&D on perennial crops: the costs and benefits of Pierce's disease research in the California winegrape industry

Several complicating issues arise in evaluating the returns to research into varietal improvements for perennial crops compared with annual crops. We elucidate and address these issues in the context of a case study of research aiming to develop varieties that are resistant to Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines. PD imposes costs of over $100 million per year on the California grape industry, even with public PD control programs in place. Research projects to develop PD resistant varieties of grapevines are at various stages of completion. We describe the economic problems posed by PD, document the research programs undertaken to address the disease and present an economic assessment of the returns to the investment, which are conditional on other policies. Using a simulation model of the market for California winegrapes, we estimate the benefits from research, development and adoption of PD‐resistant vines as ranging from $4 million to $129 million annually over a 50‐year horizon, depending on the length of the R&D lag and the rate of adoption. In addition to these specific quantitative results the paper offers insight into the broader question of economic evaluation of damage‐mitigation technology for perennial crops.     

Assessing impact of land uses on land salinization in the Yellow River Delta,China using an integrated and spatial statistical model

Intensification of agriculture and industry in salinized areas poses a risk of secondary salinization. Thus, comprehensive and spatially explicit assessments are needed to assist government in developing ecologically sound policies. Few assessments have comprehensively quantified the impacts of multiple anthropogenic activities on salinization as environmental interferences and salinity autocorrelation are largely neglected. This study tried to perform such an assessment by identifying the nature of human impacts on salinization from three aspects in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) of China. A versatile GIS-based spatial autoregression (SAR) was applied to nine selected explainable variables in six sub-region models. Sub-region model was verified as an effective tool of normalizing environmental interferences because more useful spatial information was provided compared to the whole region model. GIS-SAR model fit better and performed better in quantifying human activities, compared to the conventional ordinary least square regression (OLSR) model, as SAR can deal with spatial autocorrelation in soil salinity. Among the well-defined key determinants, oil exploitation and saline aquaculture were aggregative to salinization but only in originally highly saline sub-regions, such as coastal zone and Gleyic Solonchaks (coastal saline moisture soil) area. Two agricultural activities, crop plantation and fertilization, were mainly ameliorators in most sub-regions. The most effective salinization alleviation occurred in moderately saline sub-regions, such as floodplain and Salic Fluvisols (saline moisture soil) area, which benefitted from the development of agroforests and farm ponds. The SAR sub-region model is spatially explicit for spotting the hazardous areas and some suggestions were also provided for the policy makers.     

Beyond the grumpy rich man and the happy peasant: mixed methods and the impact of food security on subjective dimensions of wellbeing in India

This paper responds to the recent advocacy of subjective wellbeing in policy evaluation with an investigation of food security in rural Chhattisgarh, India, in 2010–2013. Conceptually, it suggests the need to move beyond a primary focus on happiness to consider a broader-based investigation into people’s subjective perceptions. In particular, it introduces a multi-domain model with some affinities to the capability approach, which asks what people think and feel themselves able to be and do. Methodologically, it suggests that the primary reliance on quantitative measures should be complemented by more qualitative approaches to give a more rounded appreciation of how people view their lives. Three approaches are presented: qualitative analysis of interview text; statistical analysis comparing a single measure of happiness with a broader, domain-based approach; and mixed qualitative and quantitative data generated from an individual case.