危机防范与金融的可持续发展研究

马克思主义金融危机理论是我们防范危机与金融可持续发展的理论指南,也是从根源上消除危机保持金融可持续发展的根本方法。文章给金融危机以马克思主义的解释,分析了金融危机发生的原因,并对这些危机发生的原因进行了分类,提出了防范危机应对之策,对我们防范危机、保持金融的可持续发展具有重要的理论指导意义。     

乡镇企业面临的潜在危机与对策

改革开放中勃然崛起的我国乡镇企业,在步入第二个十年伊始,正面临着“能否办得下去”的潜在危机。因此,在治理整顿中,如何寻觅一条符合国情现实,促进乡镇企业健康发展道路,并采取行之有效的措施,帮助乡镇企业走出困境,是当前亟待探索的同题。     

企业财务危机管理与防范

全球一体化经济促进现代企业迅速发展,也让企业运行环境日益严峻和复杂,使企业经营面临许多问题。在企业发展中财务危机成为最为严峻的问题,严重阻碍了企业的生存与发展。新形势下,企业不断加强对财务危机的管理与控制,有效地预测和防范企业财务危机的发生,是实现企业可持续发展和科学管理的重要措施。     

中国未来能源需求预测与潜在危机

本文用经济计量的研究方法对我国改革开放以来能源消费与经济增长之间数量关系做了实证分析,建立了能源消费与国民经济之间的长期协整方程和广义差分回归模型,对我国未来的能源需求进行了具体预测,并详细分析了当前我国能源供给和消费状况以及潜在能源危机的表现,指出如果不改变经济增长方式、不改变当前的能源消费状况,我国经济增长将是不可持续的.     

我国农业潜在的危机与政策保护

我国农业潜在的危机与政策保护马小方党的十一届三中全会以来，我国的农业可以说是成就与危机并存。由于我国建国以来重工轻农、农业的基础地位常停留在文件上、口号上，农业发展欠帐较多。尤其是近几年，农业暴露出的危机不少。我国的在业发展的好坏，直接关系到社会的稳...     

从危机中看金融改革与经济增长：金融与经济发展问题研究

我们分析了历次危机的产生和传导机制,并指出中国经济形势下的金融改革新任务。在资本流出流入日趋自由的情况下,政府比较适合选择独立的货币政策,以服务于物价稳定和经济增长的目标,并以灵活的汇率政策帮助实现经常项目收支平衡。     

A study on KLR financial crisis early-warning model

The financial crisis early-warning models were improved gradually with the continued regional financial crises that provided a wealth of empirical data by the end of last century. However, none of the crisis early-warning models correctly predicted the global financial crisis in 2008. Previous researches show the KLR model have better performance, so we reviewed the crisis early-warning system based on the KLR model using the recently data. This paper first tested the KLR model, and made some amendments based on the actual economic environment. Then we re-test the modified model, which show an improved performance. At last, the future crisis probabilities of some selected countries are predicted by using the amendatory model.     

中国金融危机法构建的探讨

本次震撼全球的美国金融危机给世人敲响了金融危机不定时爆发的警钟。全球化背景下金融危机的传染性更强、金融风险更大。中国相对脆弱的金融体系需要探索如何防范金融系统性风险,如何健全金融监管体系的制度与法制建设。随着人民币国际化过程深入,制定并颁布《金融危机法》能克服目前金融监管纵向监管体系缺陷,对提高我国金融监管机构应对金融危机能力、稳定金融市场与保增长具有重要意义。     

企业财务危机及其防范对策

要想加快企业发展,提高企业市场竞争能力,就不能不对财务危机进行及时的预防和规避,本文对企业财务危机出现前的一些征兆及其防范对策等进行了阐述,得出只要管理得周全,企业的财务危机可以规避和防范的结论.     

全球金融危机中消费型增值税对我国经济的影响

实行消费型增值税是我国的一项重大减税政策,是应对世界金融危机的积极财政政策的重要组成部分,是增加企业利润的有利因素,对刺激投资和经济回暖起到了一定的积极作用。     

Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis

In this article, we show that the recent financial crisis has significantly affected the potential total factor productivity (TFP) of the four largest euro area economies, as well as that of the rest of the euro area. We used a reduced-form equation of TFP, based on an approach recently developed by Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2010). Our empirical findings show that the permanent impact on potential TFP varies across countries from –3.9 points to –1.3 points in Q2 2012. When these losses are incorporated, TFP gaps develop closely in line with capacity utilization rates (CUR). Moreover, in the case of France, including CUR in our TFP model improves the quasi-real-time reliability of TFP gap estimates.     

The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on housing prices in China and Taiwan: A quantile regression analysis

This paper adopts quantile regression to investigate the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on housing prices at difference price levels in China and Taiwan, and employs data from the period July 2005–December 2010. According to the empirical results, the ordinary least squares estimates are similar to those achieved from quantile regression. However, the conditional mean-focused regressions do not capture the results that are obtained by using quantile regressions. The empirical results indicate that in Taiwan the housing prices were more affected by the financial crisis when the prices of real estate were high, but in China the housing prices were less affected by the crisis when the prices were high.     

我国居民个人理财的现状与对策研究

现在我国已进入个人理财时代,但当前我国个人理财业务存在着理财产品单一、专业理财人才匮乏、市场不规范等问题。为促使个人理财业务进一步发展,金融机构要增加理财产品,提高服务水准,加快对高素质复合型专业理财人士的培养;政府部门要积极规范个人理财市场。     

Catastrophe theory and the financial crisis

This paper develops and estimates catastrophe‐augmented models of the financial crisis. We employ catastrophe theory to explain discontinuous jumps in state variables of dynamic systems. We estimate an augmented bank failure model showing that the buildup of risk and an increase in the Federal Funds rate combined with low reserves (negative insurance effect) have been the main drivers of the financial crisis. Therefore, macroprudential policy and rating agencies play a key role in preventing the buildup of (systemic) risk and preventing the economy from entering a bifurcation area.     

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modelled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.     

Markets contagion during financial crisis: A regime-switching approach

Within a Markov regime-switching VAR framework, we investigate the contagion effects among the stock market, real estate market, credit default market, and energy market covering the most recent financial crisis period when markets experience regime shifts. The results demonstrate that the watershed of regimes occurs around the start of the subprime crisis in 2007, after which the “risky” regime dominates the evolution of market chaos. During the financial crisis, excluding their own shocks, stock market shock and oil price shock are the main driving forces behind the credit default market and stock market variations, respectively. The energy market also appears to be more responsive to the stock market movements than the shocks originating from housing and credit markets. However, the impacts from the credit default market on the real estate market are not significant as expected.