OPTIMAL DIVIDEND PAYMENTS WHEN CASH RESERVES FOLLOW A JUMP‐DIFFUSION PROCESS

We consider a model in which a firm faces two types of liquidity risks: a Brownian risk and a Poisson risk. The firm chooses a dividend policy to maximize shareholder value. We characterize the optimal firm value and we show that the optimal dividend policy is a barrier strategy: the firm keeps cash inside when the cash reserves level is less than a critical threshold and pays cash in excess of this threshold. We also analyze the problem of insurance against the Poisson risk. We find that it is optimal for the firm to buy full insurance when its cash reserves are above a critical threshold and not to insure otherwise.     

中国货币运行中现金漏损率的变化规律及其原因分析

文章首次采用结构突变模型,将现金漏损率纳入资产需求理论分析框架对中国的现金漏损率的变化规律和影响因素进行实证研究.得到如下结论:现金漏损率的变化在1992年发生了明显的结构突变,改革开放以来,中国现金漏损率变化呈现先上升后下降的阶段性特征,存在明显的季节性波动规律;1992年之前,现金漏损率的不断上升主要归因于物价上涨因素,而1992年之后,现金漏损率的逐渐下降则主要是由于中国经济的持续增长与金融改革的深化造成的;而近段时间通胀预期和各地出台的各种地产调控有可能导致现金漏损率反弹.因此文章建议,当前在稳定物价和房价的同时,必须开辟更多的金融投资渠道,以免现金漏损率的反弹带来通胀的潜在隐患.     

企业外部价值链现金流风险管理研究

以价值链为载体的现金流管理可以为企业提供更加全面的现金流管理信息。价值链包括内部价值链和外部价值链,以往企业大多重视内部价值链现金流管理,但外部价值链同样会对企来现金流产生影响。因此,应该加强企业外部价值链现金流风险管理研究。     

中国资本市场吸收实体经济的通胀能力

无论在短期或长期,虚拟经济部门扩张中因现金资产的流入而可能具有吸收过剩货币的能力,因而起到了吸收实体经济通货膨胀压力的作用,而各子市场对通货膨胀则可能存在不同方向和强度的吸收作用。文章在对近10年数据实证检验的基础上,建立了吸收通胀能力指数,并发现资本市场整体上确存在着吸收通胀压力的作用,这种作用主要来源于国债市场和期货市场,而股票和基金市场的扩张则与通胀正相关。     

基于上市公司现金流的财务风险预警

企业之间竞争日益激烈,因财务风险导致企业经营陷入困境甚至破产清算的现象不断增加。加强对企业营运过程中的风险控制,特别是建立在现金流基础上的风险预警机制是预防企业陷入财务困境的有效措施。从财务风险的预警机理出发,以江苏省上市公司为研究对象,从盈利能力、获现能力、偿债能力和可持续发展能力方面选取反映企业现金流和财务质量的核心财务指标,并运用SPSS软件,采用主成分分析法,通过对江苏省上市公司财务风险状况的实证研究,建立上市公司财务预警模型——z值模型,为企业提供一个较为科学的预测自身财务风险的工具。     

公司估价中股权自由现金流折现模型分析

自由现金流量折现估值法是企业价值评估理论中最为成熟的模型。运用由自由现金流量定义衍生出的股权自由现金流量折现方法作为研究对象,选取3家上市公司进行案例分析,通过对永续增长模型、两阶段增长模型、三阶段增长模型在企业价值评估中具体应用的比较,并与真实市值对比,其结果表明,股权自由现金流折现法下采用永续模型和两阶段模型得到的估算值能够最好的拟合上市公司的流通市值。股权自由现金折现流模型对于我国A股市场中一些成熟行业且发展稳定公司的价值评估是比较准确的,从而一定程度上能为投融资双方、收购企业和目标企业的决策者提供参考。     

RISK MEASURES: RATIONALITY AND DIVERSIFICATION

When there is uncertainty about interest rates (typically due to either illiquidity or defaultability of zero coupon bonds) the cash‐additivity assumption on risk measures becomes problematic. When this assumption is weakened, to cash‐subadditivity for example, the equivalence between convexity and the diversification principle no longer holds. In fact, this principle only implies (and it is implied by) quasiconvexity. For this reason, in this paper quasiconvex risk measures are studied. We provide a dual characterization of quasiconvex cash‐subadditive risk measures and we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for their law invariance. As a byproduct, we obtain an alternative characterization of the actuarial mean value premium principle.     

Abandonment value and capital budgeting under uncertainty

The objective of this article is to provide a solution to the capital deepening (optimal economic life) problem encountered in capital budgeting under conditions of uncertainty. Specifically, we address the capital deepening problem where project cash flows, the terminal value of the asset, and the opportunity cost of funds are all random variables. In addition, we consider the impact of risk averse behavior on the solution to the problem, much as Sandmo has done with respect to the capital widening decision.     

企业捐赠行为与公司价值重构——基于公众价值观的分析

对现代公司而言,社会公众的道德诉求能否与公司经济利益相兼容,是企业捐赠行为研究中难以回避的一个重要问题。由于引入投资者效用函数使得公众利益与"股东"利益保持一致,因而可以通过建模从理论层面上探讨企业捐赠行为与实现公司价值重构的可能性及其相关条件。结果表明:虽然捐赠减少了公司的现金流量,但投资者的价值认同使其在资本市场上依然能够实现较高的公司价值。因此,公众价值观的偏好程度及投资者对公司的溢价激励直接决定了公司价值的高低,即企业捐赠存在的合理与否。而培育理性的公众价值观是实现这种激励的重要保障。     

房地产企业财务风险的探讨

随着房地产企业的快速发展,财务风险也会逐渐加大。这是房地产行业自身特点带来的财务风险。同时,利率和通货膨胀、不稳定的现金流、国家宏观调控等因素也带来财务风险。房地产企业财务风险产生的原因,从宏观经济环境角度分析,主要是国家政策调整及宏观经济形势变化、财务管理环境的复杂性、销售资金回笼率较低等因素;从微观经济环境角度分析,主要是资本结构不合理、开发企业风险意识薄弱、人员素质较低、内部控制较为薄弱等因素。     

我国通胀演变的决定因素与传导机制研究

本文采用向量自回归模型和滚动回归方法实证研究了我国通胀演变的决定因素,结论表明,通胀预期和成本因素的变动能够快速传导至通胀指标,但其影响力可以在短期内予以消化。而需求因素和货币因素对通胀指标的传导时滞相对较长,但影响更为深远,是决定通胀变动的根源所在。在此基础上,对影响社会需求、货币供应、企业成本、通胀预期的深层因素和传导机制做了进一步的分析。最后,就我国的反通胀政策提出了几点建议。     

现金持有、融资约束与企业价值——基于门槛回归模型的实证检验

文章基于门槛回归模型,对融资约束是否会影响现金及超额现金与企业价值的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,现金及超额现金与企业价值的关系均存在显著的门槛效应。在弱融资约束企业,现金及超额现金的账面价值高于其市场价值,而在强融资约束企业,现金及超额现金的账面价值低于其市场价值,这支持了代理理论和融资约束理论,说明弱融资约束企业滥用现金的代理问题较为严重,现金持有对企业价值具有负向影响,强融资约束企业持有现金,能够抓住更多投资机会,现金持有对企业价值具有正向影响。     

An examination of the impact of macroeconomic news on the spot and futures treasuries markets

In this study we analyze the reaction of daily cash and futures prices for several Treasury securities to the release of U.S. macroeconomic news. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, the futures market is found to be cointegrated with the corresponding cash market. Second, of the 23 types of periodic macroeconomic announcements, 19 of them have a significant influence on either the cash or futures prices. Most notably, surprises in nonfarm payroll and Treasury budget significantly influence the cash and futures market across the entire maturity spectrum. Third, consistent with the Fisher and real activity hypotheses, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a negative influence on cash and futures prices. Finally, hedging with Treasury futures appears to offer investors protection from inflation‐related fluctuations in interest rates, but not against fluctuations arising due to variations in real output. Some important policy implications of the results are offered. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:453–478, 2004     

SHAREHOLDER RISK MEASURES

The aim of this paper is to put forward a new family of risk measures that could guide investment decisions of private companies. But at the difference of the classical approach of Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath and the subsequent extensions of this model, our risk measures are built to reflect the risk perception of shareholders rather than regulators. Instead of an axiomatic approach, we derive risk measures from the optimal policies of a shareholder value‐maximizing company. We study these optimal policies and the related risk measures that we call shareholder risk measures. We emphasize the fact that due to the specific corporate environment, in particular the limited shareholders' liability and the possibility to pay out dividends from cash reserves, these risk measures are not convex. Also, they depend on the specific economic situation of the firm, in particular its current cash level, and thus they are not translation invariant. This paper bridges the gap between two important branches of mathematical finance: risk measures and optimal dividends.     

Why do expiring futures and cash prices diverge for grain markets?

In recent years, cash and futures prices have failed to converge at expiration for selected corn, soybean, and wheat commodity contracts. This lack of convergence raises questions about the effectiveness of arbitrage activities, and increases concerns about the usefulness of these contracts for hedging. We describe the delivery process for these contracts, and show that it embeds a valuable real option on the long side—the option to exchange the deliverable for another futures contract. As the relative volatility of cash and futures prices increases, this option increases in value, which disconnects the cash market from the deliverable instrument in a futures contract. Our estimates of this option's value show that it may create significant price divergence. We parameterize an option pricing model using data on these three commodities from 2000 to 2008 and show that the option model fits closely to recent episodes of non‐convergence, which lends support to the importance of real option effects. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark

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Analysis of free gift card program effectiveness

Retailers use various promotions, such as gift cards, to increase profits. When retailers give gift cards “free” to consumers who spend above specified thresholds in a single purchase, some consumers may buy more goods. We develop a model to derive the optimal purchase amount thresholds and gift card values. The model is developed for consumers without and then with a spending constraint. We find that the retailer's profit margin, the degree of forward buying and stockpiling, and use of gift cards in future purchases that would have been made with cash, are the most important factors in determining the profitability of gift cards. Gift cards may be very profitable for high-margin retailers who can limit the degree of forward buying and stockpiling, particularly when consumers use gift cards to buy goods they would not have bought from the retailer without gift cards. If this is how consumers use the gift cards, then consumers spending above the cards’ value at redemption can significantly increase their profitability. Without a consumer spending constraint, it is best for the retailer to offer at most one gift card at a large purchase amount. With a consumer spending constraint, it may be profitable to give gift cards at multiple purchase amount thresholds. We also show that the commonly observed policy of giving gift cards at equally spaced purchase amounts may be profitable when forward buying and stockpiling can be controlled. Moreover, we show that gift cards become more profitable when consumers are inconsistent, that is, they overestimate their probability of redeeming the gift card at purchase time. Finally, gift cards may have only a slight profit advantage over discounts if consumers are consistent. Consumer inconsistency and spending above the cards’ value increase this advantage.     

黄金:千美元关口的风景

<正>金价大涨并不意味着经济看好,金子变得宝贵的时候或许预示着人们的某种隐忧。1000美元每盎司—这似乎是人们判断黄金是否身处牛市的临界点,于是,每当金价走到这个关口,人类的悲喜总要为之牵动,争执总是不休—不愧是黄金,不愧是没有任何货币可以超越的财富始祖。     

On the employment, investment and current account effects of inflation

The effects of inflation targets are examined for a small open economy with cash in advance constraints. An increase in the inflation rate, by increasing the price of consumption relative to leisure, reduces consumption and labor supply. The fall in labor reduces the marginal productivity of capital, and a fall in investment. The country runs a current account surplus, despite the fall in output. The dynamics of the model for permanent and temporary policy changes are fully worked out, with the aid of a diagrammatic apparatus. Quantitative analysis of the model reveals substantial impact and steady state effects.     

Certainty equivalent,risk premium and asset pricing

This paper attempts to determine the certainty equivalent of an uncertain future cash flow or value through the option pricing method, and builds models of certainty equivalent and certainty equivalent coefficient. Based on the model of certainty equivalent coefficient, this paper further derives models of risk premium and risk-adjusted discount rate. The latter is a new capital asset pricing model (CAPM) accounting for total risk rather than with only the systematic risk accounted for as in the current CAPM. The reliability in relevant financial analysis, valuation, decision making and risk management may be enhanced with these new models.