Sri Lanka’s Rural Non-Farm Economy: Removing Constraints to Pro-Poor Growth

We use a survey of rural enterprises from Sri Lanka to explore characteristics of the informal non-farm sector and identify obstacles to its expansion and productivity. Value added in this sector amounts to 80% of agricultural GDP participating households’ incomes are significantly higher than those of households who do not participate. Barriers to entry are low and the impact of non-farm development on inequality modest, implying a large potential contribution to growth and poverty reduction. Infrastructure constraints negatively affect new startups, investment in, and productivity of existing enterprises, with small enterprises being particularly affected.     

Changing Sources of Household Income,Poverty, and Sectoral Inequality in Sri Lanka, 1990–2006

Comparing dynamic changes in household income and poverty among urban, rural, and estate sectors in Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2006, this study finds that a shift of household income away from farm to nonfarm sources is accompanied by a significant improvement in household income and reduction in poverty, particularly in the rural sector. Major contributing factors are the rise in returns to labor, in general, and educated labor, in particular, due to the development of the nonfarm labor market. Persistently low income among estate households can be explained primarily by the limited availability of nonfarm employment opportunities and the low education levels of working members.     

Anatomy of financial retardation in a less developed country: The case of Sri Lanka, 1951–1976

An attempt is made in this paper to analyse the experience of Sri Lanka during 1951–1976, particularly in relation to its financial sector development. It is shown that the interventionist regime held the key to the pace and pattern of the economy's development. Whether it was the skimpy growth of the financial system, the faltering progression of GNP, the precarious foreign exchange position, or the persistence of inflationary pressure, they were all traceable to the impact on the financial system of a particular set of policies pursued. The year 1977, however, marked a watershed in Sri Lanka's long quest for economic development. The Government began to unwind the entire paraphernalia of administered controls on consumption, investment and foreign exchange. Most of the price controls were removed, subsidies phased out and public corporations were allowed greater autonomy in their pricing and distribution policies. It is necessary to contrast this situation with what existed prior to 1977 in order to assess its impact on the real economy of Sri Lanka. Only then can the cost of financial retardation be measured.     

Perspectives and problems of development in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper analyses the initial conditions for development facing post-colonial African nations, outlines alternative development strategies followed by different groups of countries and assesses the consequences for growth and poverty alleviation. On the basis of this diagnosis the paper outlines a number of policy priorities for the future including greater research, extension and infrastracture support for smallholder agriculture, an improvement in the overall structure of incentives in favour of agriculture, a more realistic urban formal sector wage structure to reduce rural—urban migration and foster a more internationally competitive manufacturing sector, and greater emphasis on surplus generation through government budgets and parastatal enterprises.     

A comparison of poverty in South Africa's nine provinces

Poverty in South Africa varies greatly across the nine provinces. An accurate estimation of relative poverty shares is important because they serve as key indices for targeting social expenditure. In this article we test the robustness of provincial poverty rankings against changes in measurement methodology. In recent years, a large body of international literature has developed concerning the choice of an appropriate poverty line and the construction of more appropriate poverty measures. This article uses two of these recent developments ‐ the concept of a poverty critical range in place of a single poverty line and distribution‐sensitive decomposable poverty measures — to re‐examine provincial poverty. Results are checked across two recent national data sets.     

The Assessment: The Economic Record of the Labour Government Since 1997

In this assessment, we focus on four main areas. First, we consideroverall macroeconomic performance, and conclude that the policychanges since 1997 have been a significant success. Second,we consider productivity performance. This has been very modest.We isolate a number of important factors underlying this poorperformance, particularly relative to the improving productivityperformance of the United States. There have been some key policychanges with regard to competition and R&D but, given theoverall problems, we should not expect any rapid improvementin this area. Third, we look at poverty rates. We discuss thereasons for the dramatic rise in poverty since 1979 and notehow the policy changes since 1997 have started to reverse thisseemingly inexorable trend. Finally, we set the scene for someof the other studies in this issue by noting the exceptionallylow levels of net investment in the public sector since 1975and the dramatic declines in the relative pay of certain groupsof public sector workers since the same date. These trends havestrongly exacerbated problems in the key areas of health, education,and transport.     

Economic growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia before and after the asian financial crisis

This paper assesses the relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Indonesia before and after the Asian financial crisis. The annual rate of poverty reduction slowed significantly in the post-crisis period. However, the trend in the growth elasticity of poverty indicates that the power of each percentage point of economic growth to reduce poverty did not change much between the two periods. In both, service sector growth made the largest contribution to poverty reduction in both rural and urban areas. Industrial sector growth largely became irrelevant for poverty reduction in the post-crisis period even though the sector contributed the second-largest share of GDP. Agricultural sector growth, mean-while, remained important, but in rural areas only. The findings suggest the need to formulate an effective strategy to promote sectoral growth in order to speed up the pace of poverty reduction.     

African Poverty Reduction Strategy Programmes and the Fisheries Sector: Current Situation and Opportunities*

Abstract: The formulation of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) is one of the main conditions for concessional lending by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to developing countries. Nevertheless, while evidence indicates that the fisheries sector can contribute (often markedly at the local level) to improved livelihoods and the achievement of food security in Africa, the sector is often neglected in PRSPs. This article focuses on the 29 African states that have currently produced a PRSP, highlighting those nations for whom the fisheries sector has been a significant motor of economic growth or likely poverty refuge. It then analyses the extent to which the fisheries sector is incorporated into national PRSPs. Results of a mapping exercise demonstrate that while the sector is significant (in either growth or poverty terms) in 12 states, the sector was effectively mainstreamed in only three national PRSPs (Ghana, Guinea and Senegal).     

Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?*

Abstract: International remittances flowing into developing countries are attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume and their impact on recipient countries. This paper uses a panel data set on poverty and international remittances for African countries to examine the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction in 33 African countries over the period 1990–2005. We find that international remittances—defined as the share of remittances in country GDP—reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Africa. But the size of the poverty reduction depends on how poverty is being measured. After instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances, we find that a 10 percent increase in official international remittances as a share of GDP leads to a 2.9 percent decline in the poverty headcount or the share of people living in poverty. Also, the more sensitive poverty measures—the poverty gap (poverty depth) and squared poverty gap (poverty severity)—suggest that international remittances will have a similar impact on poverty reduction. The point estimates for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap suggest that a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances will lead to a 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent decline, respectively, in the depth and severity of poverty in African countries. Regardless of the measure of poverty used as the dependent variable, income inequality (Gini index) has a positive and significant coefficient, indicating that greater inequality is associated with higher poverty in African countries, much in conformity with the literature. Similar results were obtained for trade openness. In the same vein, per capita income has a negative and significant effect on each measure of poverty used in the study. Our results also show that inflation rates positively and significantly affect poverty incidence, depth and severity in Africa. In all three poverty measures, the dummy variable for sub‐Saharan Africa is strongly positive, and strongly negative for North Africa. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

The impact of banking services on poverty: Evidence from sub-district level for Bangladesh

The extent to which banking services can reduce poverty is under question as recent experimental evidence has suggested that there is no impact. Our findings, based on survey and administrative data, are to the contrary. We compile a unique dataset of banking measures and poverty indicators at the level of Bangladesh’s 544 administrative sub-districts. We find a relationship between banking services and poverty reduction, and show that the relationship works through the deposit channel rather than the credit channel. We exploit variation in branch placement by sub-district between 2010 and 2015 to implement a difference-in-difference estimation approach. We also estimate ordinary least squares and fixed effects models to explore the role of factors other than banking services in poverty incidence. Broad findings supporting a role for the deposit channel, but not the credit channel, are confirmed. These results have significant policy implications as governments in developing countries are actively involved in promoting financial inclusion through the banking sector.     

The social sector of the Expanded Public Works Programme as a strategy to alleviate poverty amongst vulnerable groups in Gauteng

This article presents findings of a mixed-methods research study undertaken to evaluate the sustainability of the social sector of the Expanded Public Works Programme as a poverty alleviation strategy targeting women, youth and persons with disabilities. The study revealed that the social sector of the Expanded Public Works Programme has made a contribution to poverty alleviation, but may not be sustainable in the long term because of its reliance on volunteers, who receive a stipend. The programme is also limited by the fact that its implementation is focused mainly on one ethnic group. The article makes recommendations which may strengthen the social sector of the Expanded Public Works Programme to facilitate its sustainability.     

Hurricane Katrina as an Experiment in Housing Mobility and Neighborhood Effects: Were the Relocated Poor Black Evacuees Better-Off?

Hurricane Katrina induced hundreds of thousands of New Orleans citizens to evacuate and relocate to different neighborhoods. Some of these evacuees moved to neighborhoods with poverty rates lower than the one they left in New Orleans. With survey data on a small sample of black Katrina evacuees who registered for absentee voter ballots, this paper explores whether or not there were improvements in the welfare of black evacuees—neighborhood effects—as a result of moving to neighborhoods with a lower poverty rate. With data from a small sample of relocated Katrina evacuees, we provide matching estimates of the short-run treatment effect of different types of changes in neighborhood poverty on five different measures of individual welfare. Treatment parameter estimates reveal—conditional upon the change in origin to destination neighborhood poverty rate—positive neighborhood effects mostly for black evacuees who did not move from high poverty to low poverty neighborhoods, but could have. Our results suggest that at least in the short-run, antipoverty policies based on housing mobility and changing the poverty characteristics of neighborhoods are not necessarily effective in improving the welfare of poor black households.     

Poverty in Zambia: Levels,patterns and trends

This article presents the results of the analysis of levels, patterns and trends in the incidence of poverty in Zambia between 1991 and 1998, based on data captured in nationally representative surveys. In 1998, about 73 per cent of the households in Zambia were poor, the majority of which were extremely poor. Most poor households were in rural areas, with wide inter- and intra-provincial and district variations. The incidence of poverty also varied according to employment status and sector, as well as by district, gender, marital status, education and stratum of head of the household. In general, households headed by females, those without any formal education, unpaid family workers, the inactive, the self-employed, and those in agriculture, forestry and fishing recorded the highest incidence of poverty, with those employed in private households being affected the worst. In spite of the general increase in poverty nationally, most rural provinces registered declines while urban areas experienced increases in the incidence of poverty during the period under review. Furthermore, except for the agricultural/forestry, mining and quarrying, and electricity and gas sectors, the incidence of poverty increased in all the other sectors while remaining almost the same in the real estate sector. The direction and magnitude in the incidence of poverty between 1991 and 1998 were also associated with gender, education, employment status, employment sector, and residence of head of the household, as well as size of the household. Based on the analysis, the article strongly recommends revision in the measurement of poverty, investigation of the types of coping strategies adopted by the poor, and the extent to which these impact on the general well-being and productivity of vulnerable households in Zambia. The need for more qualitative data has also been highlighted.     

Branch expansion and banking efficiency in Sri Lanka’s post‐conflict era

This study assesses changes in the technical efficiency of commercial banks in Sri Lanka following the end of armed conflict in 2009. The weighted aggregate-efficiency technique, based on a group-wise heterogeneous subsampling bootstrap approach, is employed to compare efficiency levels during the periods 2007–2009 and 2010–2013. This technique allows for heterogeneity in environmental and regulatory conditions between the two periods while assuming homogeneity within each period. Our results reveal that the banking sector experienced a significant efficiency improvement post-conflict even with unprecedented branch expansion. The findings, therefore, controvert the mainstream view that bank efficiency declined with rapid industry expansion. Further, we conclude that geographical expansion of the banking sector is a viable and effective policy tool to achieve broad-based and inclusive growth for emerging economies like Sri Lanka, particularly in a period of post-conflict recovery.     

Vietnam: an economic survey

This paper reviews the two decades of economic development in Vietnam since Doi Moi, with the recurrent theme that integration with the world economy brings substantial benefits when accompanied by domestic reforms—when transition catches up with integration. In the 1990s, liberalisation of the agricultural sector—and of trade generally—led to rapid economic growth and reductions in poverty. Since 2001, addressing the extreme bias against the private sector has resulted in growth via development of labour‐intensive industries as well as enabling Vietnam to climb onto the first rung of the ladder in the global supply chains of electronics and related manufacturing. However, deeper international integration has made the economy more vulnerable to external shocks. Although Vietnam achieved two decades of rapid growth as well as survived the global financial crisis in better shape than most other economies of similar size in the region, prospects of sustaining another decade of rapid growth are far from assured. Vietnam still has very large state‐owned enterprises in capital‐intensive industries. The recent extension of these large enterprises into real estate and finance contributed to de‐stabilise the macro‐economy, and administrative measures were adopted to pare back some of these ‘non‐core’ activities. However, administrative measures are hard to sustain once a crisis is over. The Vietnamese government has the goal of transforming Vietnam into an industrialised society over the coming decade. The recent macroeconomic turbulence has demonstrated that the country needs strong macroeconomic institutions capable of stabilising the economy and setting the parameters for resumption of rapid growth. Thus there is a strong case for the development of modern public institutions as the focus of the third phase of reforms.     

Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 1980–2000

This paper uses crosscountry data and country-case studies to analyze trends in poverty, inequality and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Compared to other regions, the MENA region has a low incidence of poverty and income inequality. Two factors account for this situation: international migration/remittances and public sector (government) employment. Since the early 1980s international migration to the Persian Gulf and Europe has helped boost the incomes of the poor in the Middle East. At the same time, many MENA countries have used government employment as a means of keeping people employed and out of poverty. Regression analysis of crosscountry data shows that both of these factors have a statistically significant impact on reducing the level and depth of poverty in the MENA region.     

When Does Economic Growth Reduce Poverty and Strengthen the Middle Class? A State-Level,Sector-Specific Analysis of Peru

Using novel state-level data of Peru from 1997 to 2010, we investigate how growth in different sectors affects poverty rates and the middle class. Our results indicate that only the manufacturing sector seems to robustly decrease poverty. Growth in the service sector emerges as a meaningful predictor of a rising middle class. Allowing for regional differences, we find substantial variation across the 25 Peruvian states with large shifts in magnitudes, signs, and statistical importance. Beyond the immediate implications for Peru, these findings highlight the importance of analyzing the link between economic performance and poverty rates on a subnational level. Policy implications are likely to differ substantially, depending on the source of economic growth and regional particularities.     

Structure of Sectoral Decomposition of Aggregate Poverty Changes in Cameroon

Abstract: This paper reviews theoretical frameworks for sectoral decomposition and assesses the within‐ and between‐sector contributions to changes in aggregate poverty in Cameroon informed by the Shapley Value decomposition rule. Between 1984 and 1996 poverty remained a rural phenomenon in Cameroon. It became more widespread, deeper and severer in both rural and urban areas, but more so in urban than rural areas. While the within‐sector effects disproportionately accounted for the increase in poverty in the period 1984–96, the between‐sector contributions in both rural and semi‐urban areas played a mitigating role on the worse effects of the increase in poverty. These findings infer the potential positive feedback effects of migration such as remittances, and/or increases in rural consumption expenditure in the face of rural underemployment, as effective strategies used by migrants to lift their families and villages out of the worse effects of poverty. The implication of this interpretation is that decision‐makers need to better understand the factors that push or pull potential migrants. Rural–urban mobility could, therefore, be viewed as a strategy used by households to moderate the worse effects of poverty and a vector of shared growth. The implications for public policy, in terms of open unemployment and associated social and insecurity problems at the receiving end, point to the wisdom of addressing the push‐factors via targeting more in favour of rural areas.     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

Insolvency Reform and the Indonesian Financial Crisis

Treatments of Indonesia's financial crisis customarily focus on exchange rate collapse, neglecting the question of why enterprises were so highly leveraged beforehand. This article reviews controlling shareholder-debtor behaviour both before and during the crisis. It then examines Indonesia's emergency bankruptcy legislation effective August 1998—which enjoys a mixed record in implementation—and articulates bankruptcy policy principles for the replacement legislation now being drafted. Progress on the insolvency front has been limited to a relatively small number of voluntary debt reorganisations. Early indications are that such restructurings largely take the form of debt rescheduling rather than debt-equity swaps, loan write-offs, or other approaches that would lessen enterprises' heavy leveraging. This outcome reflects problems in creditor as well as debtor preferences. What began as a private sector insolvency problem increasingly overlaps with efforts to address general banking sector difficulties. Further, nationalism questions complicate the resolution of insolvencies.