Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium‐term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm‐level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments' fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle‐western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.     

The Economics of Health System Payment

Summary Health care takes up 10 to 15 percent of GDP in most countries. In this lecture, I consider the efficiency of the medical system, focusing on the potential for payment reform to increase efficiency. Traditionally, medical care reimbursement has been based on the quantity and intensity of the services provided. While this system encouraged valuable innovation, it failed when high quality is not achieved by increased quantity. In theory, a more efficient system could be achieved by paying for medical care on the basis of quality of care provided, not just quantity. I discuss the design of such a payment system and review the literature on how pay-for-performance systems have worked in practice. Cautious optimism about the potential for efficiency gains from payment reform is warranted. This essay was presented as the 19th Tinbergen Lecture on October 21, 2005, in Amsterdam. I am grateful to session participants for comments.     

实验经济学视角下的非点源污染控制政策研究:一个文献综述

非点源污染已成为包括中国在内许多国家水体污染的重要来源。近年来,国外将实验经济学研究方法运用到非点源污染控制的政策设计与评估上来,并取得了显著成效。相比之下,中国对非点源污染控制的政策研究非常匮乏,有关非点源污染控制政策的实验研究还未见正式发表。基于此,本文对国外非点源污染控制与管理的实验研究成果进行梳理,我们将这些研究归为两类,即基于个人表现和基于集体表现,在此基础上获得中国开展此类研究的启示并提出初步的研究设想。     

A Guide to Graduate Study in Economics: Ranking Economics Departments by Fields of Expertise

Ph.D. programs in economics are ranked overall and by subject field. The results provide insight to students researching graduate programs in economics in specific subject fields. Results indicate that (i) differences in overall research productivity measures diminish as a university's rank declines; (ii) a university ranked highly in a particular subject field may be the result of a single, extremely productive faculty member; and (iii) many programs outside the traditional top 20 programs are ranked high in specific subject fields.     

中国健康保险需求决定因素分析——以2006年上海保险市场为例

作为社会保障体系建设的重要补充部分,近几年来商业健康保险在中国有了较大的发展。本研究显示家庭生命周期、教育、家庭收入、社会保险是当前影响健康保险需求的最重要原因,而性别、个人收入对健康保险消费的并影响不大,逆向选择现象也不明显。本研究也发现,不同收入群体对健康保险的需求有着不同的态度,其决定因素也有着较大的差别。本研究还发现,商业健康保险已在社会保障体系中发挥着重要的补充作用。     

The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis and Air Pollution in Finland

Abstract

The historiography of mercantilism has been described as a series of disconnected still pictures which reflect the shifting viewpoints of economic thought.¹ However, historians have favoured different concepts of mercantilism not only in response to the shifts of economic science but also because they have held, explicitly or implicitly, different opinions on the problem of how economic ideas are formed and of the role they have played in historical development. The following reexamination of some of those ‘stills’ concentrate on such differences.²     

Scenario simulation of the demographic dynamics: The case of Volgograd oblast

This paper presents the results of scenario calculations of the demographic dynamics in Volgograd oblast up to 2050. The calculations were made by simulating the dependence of the gender and age structure of the population on the birth and death rates and the migration increment. The dynamics of the shares of the productive-age population, children, and pensioners, as well as of the coefficients of the dependency ratio according to the chosen scenario, are presented.     

经济学发展新方向:心理学发现对经济学的影响

近年来，心理学对经济学的影响主要表现为以下方面：心理学的一些新发现大大扩展了经济学对偏好理论的认识广度和深度；对经济学中期望效用理论产生了系统的质疑；心理学的一些发现对人们在经济生活中判断和决策的过程产生了质疑；所有这些预示着经济学发展的一个新方向。     

Demand,Market Structure and the Formalizing of Ministry of Health Fees: A Nicaraguan Case Study

Plagued by recurrent-cost crises, and nonexistent or vague user fee policies, local-level Ministry of Health (MOH) authorities in many countries have been compelled to design and implement their own fee systems. This has commonly resulted in a national user fee “system” that is a patchwork of idiosyncratic, regional or local practices, replete with inconsistencies, and compromised access, equity, efficiency, sustainability and other MOH objectives. This has been the experience of many countries in Latin America, including Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua. This paper provides an assessment of a user fee system that has developed in a haphazard, locally-led manner. After establishing empirically that there are three distinct health care markets in Nicaragua, an econometric analysis of the choice of provider reveals that consumers have very different price sensitivities in each of the markets. A series of simulations investigating the impact of changing MOH user fee levels suggests that the fees for MOH care in rural areas should be eliminated, while those in the capital, Managua, should be increased. The policy implications of these changes are discussed within a long-term planning context that reflects the stated public health goals of the Government of Nicaragua.     

中国城市空气污染收敛性研究--以二氧化硫为例的实证分析

SO2作为一种常规污染物在1990年代初就受到中国政府的重点管控。文章利用2002-2012年我国113个城市的人均SO2排放量面板数据探讨了我国人均SO2排放量变化的内在规律,使用静态和动态面板数据的回归方法检验了市级人均SO2排放量的收敛性,并分析了人均SO2收敛速度的影响因素。实证结果显示：在全国范围及东、中、西部三大区域内,城市人均SO2排放量存在着绝对与相对收敛;在影响收敛速度的各因素中,人均收入的提高可以加快人均SO2排放的收敛速度,而人口密度的增加则会降低人均SO2排放量的收敛速度。     

气候变化经济学的文献综述

气候变化的经济学研究最近几年进展很快,本文旨在反映这一领域理论研究的现状与最新的进展。全文共分五个部分:首先对气候问题的经济学涵义进行了简要说明,并引出气候变化经济学研究的主要内容。其次,我们以斯特恩报告为例,对气候问题的严峻性及理论争论的焦点进行了解释,由此强调气候变化的经济学特征以及经济学在理解和解决气候问题方面的作用。再次,在全球公共物品的背景下,本文对目前气候谈判所遇到的障碍和需要克服的困难进行了描述。最后的结束语给出了若干值得关注的研究问题,并指出气候问题的最终解决不仅需要经济学家的智慧和贡献,而且还有待于其他相关学科的共同努力。     

城市生态旅游的形象策划研究——以泰安市为例

从生态旅游的理论、城市旅游以及建设生态城市的理论以及具体实践入手,阐明城市生态旅游的涵义以及相关理论,提出泰安市发展城市生态旅游的思路,并对泰安市城市生态旅游进行市场定位和形象策划,对当前泰安建设生态城市与实现泰山旅游可持续发展具有重要的意义。     

A Summary of Mineral Resource Economics Study in China

The history of theory development indicates that the study on the price theory of the mineral resources has moved from the mineral resources paid use to the property of value and pricing mineral resources. The core of the study of mineral resources management system is in fact the analysis on the system changes of the mineral resources paid use and resources marketization. We have formed a mainstream view of the system change that is based on the value, capitalization and marketization. Besides, we must use policies made by the government to eliminate market failures, improve and perfect mineral resources accounting system, make mineral resources planning, and control investment direction and finally bring about the sustainable development of mineral resources.     

Wage Compensation for Job Risks: the Case of Hong Kong

The paper provides an estimate of wage compensation for fatal job risk in Hong Kong. It uses the 1991 Population Census of Hong Kong merged with job fatality data collected by the Labour Department. The results show that there is a positive and significant compensating wage differential for job fatal risk for manual workers in Hong Kong. The estimated 'statistical value of a life' is approximately HK$10.8m in 1990 prices (about US$1.4m). While this figure is somewhat lower than many estimates for developed countries, it is much higher than workers' compensation.