国内外润滑油基础油市场分析及展望

1992-2008年,世界润滑油总消费量为3800万吨/年左右.受全球金融危机影响.2008年全球润滑油消费量明显下降,但亚太地区仍为润滑油消费的热点地区.预计全球润滑油需求从2010年后开始反弹.2008年底全球润滑油基础油产能为5000万吨/年,基础油市场呈现供大于求的态势,2010年产能将过剩约20%.近期全球基础油加氢工艺生产的Ⅱ/Ⅲ类基础油比例不断上升;基础油竞争的焦点继续集中在亚太地区;基础油开始走品牌发展道路;废油回收加工基础油日益受到重视.近年来,中国润滑油消费保持高速增长态势,进口基础油资源不断增加."十二五"期间,预计润滑油基础油年进口量仍将超过100万吨.中国在适时建设基础油生产装置的同时,也应适当利用进口资源,避免大量建设带来的区域产能过剩的风险.同时,中国石油、中国石化两大集团公司应积极开展废油回收业务,为国家的环保和节能工作作出应有的贡献.     

The Australian merger guidelines: A comparison with the U.S. merger guidelines

Modern Australian antitrust had not begun when the first U.S. merger guidelines appeared in 1968. Even now, twenty five years later, no similarly detailed, formal administrative guidelines have been developed in Australia. This paper reviews the way in which the AustralianTrade Practices Act 1974 handles mergers and market definition, and considers how the Courts and the Trade Practices Commission, Australia's sole antitrust enforcement agency, have handled market definition and evaluated mergers. The key role played by the Trade Practices Tribunal, a quasi-judicial body, in influencing the Australian approach to mergers and market definition is highlighted. Contrasts are made with the 1992 American guidelines, and reasons for the different approaches are suggested.     

Transferring and Transforming Technology Education: A Study of Norwegian Teachers’ Perceptions of Ideas from Design & Technology

What happens when educational ideas cross national and cultural borders? How do teachers respond to ideas originating in a different school system and a different national culture? This article reports on an empirical study investigating the transfer of ideas from Design &; Technology as a subject in England and Wales into Norwegian schools. A sample of teachers participating in a specific project on technology teaching inspired by this subject has been studied by means of interviews and classroom observation. Results of the study show that while some elements of Design &; Technology are adopted by the teachers, essential ideas of the subject are significantly transformed. Drawing on Barnes, (1992, Teachers and Teaching: From Classrooms to Reflection (pp. 9–32), The Falmer press, London) concept of teachers' professional frames for teaching, it is shown how specific aspects of the national and educational culture have had a considerable effect on?the teachers' interpretation of the nature of technology as a subject of teaching and its place in the curriculum. The study illustrates the importance of the cultural context in how educational ideas are interpreted, reshaped and realized in schools.     

提高能效低碳发展携手应对能源挑战——《BP2030世界能源展望》解读

2012年版《BP 2030世界能源展望》显示:到2030年,全球一次能源消费将较2010年增长39％,年均增速为1.6％,几乎所有的(96％)消费增长都来自非经合组织国家.尽管可再生能源增速最快(年均增长8.2％),2030年化石能源仍将在一次能源消费结构中占80％的份额.全球液体燃料(石油、生物燃料和其他液体燃料)2030年需求总量将超过1 03亿桶/日,新增需求(1600万桶/日)几乎全部来自非经合组织国家,并主要由欧佩克和美洲国家的供应来满足.天然气将成为消费增长最快的化石燃料,年均增长为2.1％,液化天然气和非常规气将在供应中发挥重要作用.中印发展速度、规模以及中东的供应能力对2030年全球能源前景意义重大.到2030年,南北美洲将基本实现能源独立,亚太地区的能源缺口却不断扩大.这提醒我们:必须不断提高能源利用效率,降低单位GDP能源强度;加强与其他国家和地区的能源合作;对非常规资源应加强科技攻关和国际合作,实现其科学发展和持续发展;保障能源安全稳定供应并逐步实现低碳发展.     

A note on the implementation of cable TV rate caps

In devising rate caps under the 1992 Cable Act, the FCC measured the effects of market power in cable TV by comparing overbuild franchise areas (served by more than one cable operator) with monopoly areas. This paper draws attention to, and corrects, several shortcomings in the FCC's analysis. We conclude that the overbuilds' rates are, on average, 12 percent lower than monopoly rates (and not 16 percent as estimated by the FCC, a difference of approximately $700 million in terms of annual cable revenues). Furthermore, overbuild operators offer better service quality than monopoly systems; the average overbuild offers upto 34 percent more non-broadcast channels.     

Employee perceptions of management relations as influences on job satisfaction and quit intentions

In this paper we use a relational approach to investigate how employee perceptions of their relationships with three types of managers—senior, line, and human resource managers—are related to employees’ job satisfaction and intention to quit. Based on an employee survey (n = 1,533), and manager network data (n = 140) in ten organizations operating in Australia, we found that the extent of agreement between employees’ perceptions of their relations with senior and line management was positively related to these outcome variables. In addition, we found these relationships were strengthened in organizations where HR and line managers reported high-frequency communication between the two groups. Implications of our findings are briefly canvassed.     

Breastfeeding versus infant formula: the Kenyan case

An Infant Feeding Practices Study (IFPS) in 1982 in Kenya, which included a cross-sectional survey of a weighted sample of 980 low and middle income Nairobi mothers who had given birth in the previous 18 months, found that most women breastfeed their infants for long periods, but many introduce alternate feeding, especially infant formula, in the 1st 4 months (86 and 50% of the infants were breastfed at 6 and 15 months respectively, but 50% of the 2 month-olds and 63% of the 4 month-olds were receiving substitutes, mostly formula). This is done largely out of the belief that infant formula is an additional health benefit. A workshop to discuss the findings of the IFPS and other available data, and to make policy recommendations urged the adoption of a policy of protection, support and promotion of breastfeeding. Since breastfeeding is already widely prevalent in Kenya, protection of breastfeeding should receive the 1st priority in policy related to infant feeding. Attention should be directed at at least 2 influences which help undermine breastfeeding: widespread availability and promotion of breast milk substitutes. Support for breastfeeding is viewed as the 2nd policy priority. Situations where support can play a helpful role are, women's paid employment outside the home, hospital practices, maternal morbidity, and difficulties in breastfeeding. Since promotion is the least cost effective of the 3 options, and most Kenyan women are already motivated to breastfeed, this should be the last priority. Promotion includes reeduction of mothers to make them better aware of the benefits of breastfeeding. The workshop recommended the dissemination of appropriate information, consisting of standarized messages based on clearcut guidelines, using mass media techniques.     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

Reducing the mean supply delay of spare parts using lateral transshipments policies

Lateral transshipment has been studied lately as a promising policy for increasing the performances of multi-echelon spare parts inventory system. By lateral transshipment spare parts can be moved from one location with excess inventory to another location, at the same echelon, in shortage, with the aim of reducing supply delays of spare parts. This paper will examine the relative effectiveness of two lateral shipments approaches in reducing the mean supply delay (MSD) of a non-repairable item, with respect to a classical policy of no lateral shipments. A simulation model of a two echelon supply network has been implemented and an experiment has been performed by varying different parameters of the supply network, such as the number of warehouses (locations at the lower echelon), the supply lead time from the central depot, the spare parts demand uncertainty, and the size variability of the warehouses. Results show appreciable reductions of MSD when lateral shipments are allowed with respect to the classical policy, in almost every network configuration.     

政府土地供应政策、行政调控政策对房价波动的影响——基于中国35个城市的证据

2016年中国面临了新一轮的房价上涨,政府调控对房价调节起着重要的作用。本文从中国35个城市2010～2016年的土地供应政策（土地竞拍过程中的额外规定）和行政调控政策（“限贷”、“限购”和住房规划政策）的变化来研究其对房价波动的影响,得出土地供应调控和“限购”政策对房价的显著正向作用,但“限贷”和住房规划政策对房的作用与预期相反并做了相应的分析,最后提出3个稳定房价的建议：（1）在供给侧的调控仍以增加土地供应为核心,各大城市统筹兼顾,突出重点。（2）在需求侧的调控则以“限贷”、“限购”为抑制房价上涨的短期有效的政策工具。（3）土地制度改革是稳定房价根本措施。     

A multistage stochastic programming model for the New Zealand dairy industry

This paper presents an application of multistage stochastic programming to a production planning problem for Fonterra, a leading company in the New Zealand dairy industry, taking into account uncertain milk supply, price–demand curves and contracting. We describe a model for Fonterra's supply chain, and a model for uncertain milk supply. We then present a multistage stochastic quadratic programming model and a decomposition algorithm to compute an optimal sales policy, which is tested in simulation against a deterministic policy.     

Critical review of supply chain innovation research (1999–2016)

This paper aims to systematically review the supply chain innovation literature over the last 18 years. It examines the development and current state of supply chain innovation research in management and identifies research gaps. A literature review is conducted to identify and analyze publications in peer-reviewed academic journals that include contributions from different strands of management research. This paper analyzes the theoretical contributions of the supply chain innovation literature using Gregor's (2006) framework of theory classification. It also evaluates the levels of analysis of the literature using the structural view model proposed by Skinner, Han, and Chang (2006). This research identified and analyzed various topics related to the supply chain innovation construct and showed that supply chain innovations can be studied at multiple analytical levels. It also revealed that the field has largely relied on manufacturing firm-based samples and U.S. samples, limiting the generalizability of the findings. The identification and analysis of relevant articles highlighted the need to conceptualize the supply chain innovation construct and develop measurement scales to operationalize it. This literature review is the first to focus on supply chain innovations, summarizing the development of the last 18 years and providing fruitful opportunities for future research. The results presented can be applied to the decision-making process of managers regarding supply chain innovations.     

The Determinants of Performance Appraisal Systems: A Note (Do Brown and Heywood's Results for Australia Hold Up for Britain?)

This article offers a replication for Britain of Brown and Heywood's analysis of the determinants of performance appraisal in Australia. Although there are some important limiting differences between our two datasets — the Australia Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (AWIRS) and the Workplace Employment Relations Survey (WERS) — we reach one central point of agreement and one intriguing shared insight. First, performance appraisal is negatively associated with tenure: where employers cannot rely on the carrot of deferred pay or the stick of dismissal to motivate workers, they will tend to rely more on monitoring, ceteris paribus. Second, employer monitoring and performance pay may be complementary. However, consonant with the disparate results from the wider literature, there is more modest agreement on the contribution of specific human resource management practices, and still less on the role of job control.     

Organic or conventional? Optimal dairy farming technology under the EU milk quota system and organic subsidies

This paper assesses the competitiveness of organic and conventional dairy farms under different milk market and organic farming policy scenarios. We use a DEA-based model to estimate for each policy scenario the sample farms’ profit potential in both technologies. The model enables identification of a farm’s optimal technology based on its input–output observations. The empirical analysis is based on the annual accounts of 1300 Bavarian dairy farms. Results indicate that approximately 69% (78%) of the organic (conventional) farms have chosen their optimal farming system. The remaining organic (conventional) farmers could increase their profit on average by roughly 6% (10%) by switching to the other technology. Abolishment of the EU milk quota results in a considerable decline in the number of sample farms for which organic farming is the optimal technology, suggesting that, ceteris paribus, organic dairy farms may lose competitive advantage with the deregulation of the EU’s milk market regime in 2015. Organic maintenance payments more than double the number of farms with a higher earning potential in organic farming, but their effectiveness could decline when the milk quota is abolished.     

Can antitakeover activity really create wealth? Evidence from Australia

This paper examines management-induced antitakeover activity which occurred in Australia in the late 1980s. The particular event studied is unique in Australia and requires shareholder approval to amend a company's Articles of Association to incorporate an antitakeover clause. The results show that there are strong positive wealth effects surrounding this management-initiated antitakeover activity, and that there is some evidence of a positive relationship between these abnormal returns and institutional holdings.Scott Armstrong is Investment Analyst, Bankers Trust Australia Limited, Sydney, Australia. Helen Lange is Senior Lecturer, Graduate School of Management, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. Li-Anne Woo is Lecturer, School of Banking and Finance, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. We gratefully appreciate the comments on earlier drafts from Tim Brailsford, Malcolm Harris, Gary Twite, Greg Clinch, Julianne Wright, Roger Bowden, Robert Czernkowski, participants at the Inaugural International Conference on Financial Management, Suffolk University, Boston (November 1992), and participants at the Third International Conference on Asian-Pacific Financial Markets, Singapore (September 1993). This research benefited from the financial support provided by a Special Research Grant from the Faculty of Commerce and Economics, University of New South Wales.     

Process Innovation and Integration in Process‐Oriented Settings: The Case of the Oil Industry

Scholars have long argued that in new product development integrated innovation processes replace sequentially organized ones because of changing capabilities, integration of knowledge, and the increasing importance of market orientation. The intention of this paper is to study whether this also applies in process‐oriented industries. Process‐oriented settings are fundamentally different from product‐oriented ones as the emphasis is on efficiency, clear guidelines, and tacit knowledge, while radical innovation is less important. It is also less obvious why market orientation—a key driver of integration in new product development—should change the way the innovation process is organized, as there is no product to be developed in the first place. A Stage Gate Model could therefore be well‐suited to achieve more efficiency and effectiveness. In order to investigate process innovation in a process‐oriented setting, we decided to study the upstream oil and gas industry, a scale‐intensive, process‐oriented setting that substantially contrasts with traditional science‐driven industries such as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, where patents are relevant. The particular advantage of this setting is that virtually no product innovation occurs, allowing the isolation of process innovation. Relying on five inductive case studies of major projects (BP's Prudhoe Bay, Chevron's Kern River, Conoco Philips's Ekofisk, ENI's el‐Bouri, and Shell's Troll field), we find that integration occurs in process‐oriented settings but does so for different reasons than in product‐oriented ones. Integration emerges from an innovation mode characterized by: (1) trial and error (not R&D) as the main mode of innovation; (2) the cooperation of experts from different knowledge backgrounds; (3) the development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), which facilitates this cooperation across disciplines and projects; and (4) the need to increase efficiency as demand outstrips supply. More precisely, demand shapes reward systems and determines whether new raw materials will be used (creating new supply that requires innovation of processes in periods when demand outstrips supply). Supply and reward systems therefore create the conditions where trial and error, integration of knowledge, and ICT development mutually enforce each other, leading to the integration of the innovation process. Besides contributing to the literature on innovation the paper also offers interesting insights for managers. In order to foster innovation in process‐oriented settings they need to provide specialists with room to experiment over extended periods of time, encourage cooperation across disciplines, and create both incentives and systems to facilitate this process. Finally, managers need to consider the ability of staff to cooperate at the outset, when they set up their recruitment process.     

Current Situation of China''''s Petroleum Supply & Demand and Change of Circulation System

China's crude supply consists of the imported crude and crude produced by CNPC and CNOOC. In 1996, national crude production reached 157.29 million tons including 141.41 million tons produced by CNPC. Offshore crude production in 1996 soared to 15. 01 million tons, up 78% from 1995. In 1997, China will produce, import     

The role of power and trust in spreading sustainability initiatives across supply networks: A case study in the bio-chemical industry

This paper investigates how sustainability spreads across supply networks. Adopting an Industrial Marketing & Purchasing (IMP) Interaction Approach (Håkansson, 1982), we seek to understand sustainability spread as a change process that affects different supply network actors and the impact of power and trust on the spreading process. The paper reports on an in-depth case study of the development of a sustainability initiative in the bio-chemical industry, based on data collection with multiple supply network actors across several tiers, providing unique and rich insights into understanding sustainability spread in a supply network and the perceptions of multiple supply network actors on the role of power and trust on the spreading process. Data collection comprised 20 semi-structured interviews spanning eight supply network actors, supported by secondary data such as archival records. The case study indicates that both coercive and non-coercive power as well as trust, significantly impact the actors' engagement in sustainability initiatives and its wider spread in supply networks. The paper contributes to the literature on sustainable supply chain management and IMP research on sustainability spread and, in particular, provides insights on the impact of power and trust on the process of sustainability spread across dyadic relationships into the wider supply network.