Confronting an unsolvable problem: Deforestation in Malawi

In Malawi, the low price of firewood from customary land is a barrier to reforestation. If government were to grow trees and sell them at current firewood prices, subsidies would be so great that only a very small part of wood deficits could be met. Nor will farmers plant enough trees, since many other cash crops give higher returns than firewood. Moreover, there is no way to raise the price of firewood to levels where adequate amounts of tree planting would become economic. Therefore, deforestation cannot be reversed. Under the circumstances, the most important obligation is to minimize the damage done to agricultural land as trees disappear. This means that all of the (relatively few) trees planted must fulfill a soil-protection function. A tree planting strategy based on these realities will be very different from a strategy that assumes the deforestation problem can be “solved.”     

房地产价格波动影响因素的实证研究究——基于广州市的VAR模型

本文以广州市为例对房地产价格波动和其影响因素进行实证分析。本文以相关经济理论为根据建立了向量自回归模型。模型实证结果表明预期冲击是影响广州市房地产价格波动的重要因素,房地声市场存在明显的顺周期性质,货币供应量的变化也会引起房地产价格的变化。本文还发现房地产市场的瑰策主体主要依据年内四个季度的房地产价格和销量等信息来进行决策。房地产价格波动是对房地产市场波动的主要解释因子。     

Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We use transactions data to explore the magnet effects of price limit rules on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). When limit hits are imminent, stock prices are found to approach the price limits at faster rates, with higher trading intensity and larger price variation, supporting the magnet effect hypothesis of Subrahmanyam [Subrahmanyam, A., 1994. Circuit breakers and market volatility: A theoretical perspective. Journal of Finance, 49, 237–254.]. Moreover, when stock prices approach the floor limits, we observe lower than normal market conditions’ trading volume and trade size but a wider spread. The panic selling psychology of individual investors for fear of illiquidity and the strategic trading decisions of discretionary traders during periods prior to price limit hits at the floors are conjectured as possible explanations for the observed price behaviors. Post-limit-hit analysis reveals evidence of delayed price discovery at the ceiling limit but price reversal at the floor.     

Red Holocaust

ABSTRACT

Reduced transport costs and income growth in industrialising European countries changed the market conditions for European farmers in the late nineteenth century. Grain prices fell while dairy prices rose. It has been claimed that these price changes hit large grain farmers with vested interests in grain trade particularly hard, while owner-occupiers and smallholders fared better and with help of developing cooperative associations, came out as successful commercial agriculturalists by switching to intensive branches, foremost dairying. Recent research on the Danish case, shows, however, that change was initiated on large elite estates with long-term dairy traditions. The literature on the Swedish case indicates, that larger farms switched to intensified fodder production quicker than smaller farms did, while in the early twentieth century smaller farms played an un-proportionally large role on the dairy market. Using individual farm data from two East-central Swedish parishes in 1878/80, 1895/96 and 1910/11, it is shown, that larger farms tended to modernise crop rotations and switch towards dairy production earlier than small farms did. Smaller farms caught up, and by 1910 their land use was about as strongly adapted to commercial dairy production as larger farms’ land use was.     

Ex-post Analysis of Mobile Telecom Mergers: The Case of Austria and The Netherlands

Recently there has been an increased attention towards the ex-post evaluation of competition policy enforcement decisions and in particular merger decisions. In this paper we study the effects of two mobile telecommunication mergers on prices. We apply a standard difference-in-differences approach which is widely used in the literature on ex-post evaluation of mergers. For the Austrian T-Mobile/tele.ring merger, we conclude that after the acquisition (for which remedies were imposed) prices in Austria did not increase relative to the considered control countries. For the Dutch T-Mobile/Orange merger, we observe an increase in the mobile tariff prices in the Netherlands in the analysed period, relative to the control countries. We cannot firmly establish whether this price increase was exclusively caused by the T-Mobile/Orange merger or in part by possible price effects brought about by the KPN/Telfort merger consummated two years earlier in the Netherlands. However, we believe that such price increase could be linked to the structural changes brought by both KPN/Telfort and T-Mobile/Orange mergers together.     

International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets

Due to the global economy that is currently being increasingly integrated and liberalized, the cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy surprises has become a critical issue attracting scholarly attention. This research thus extends the existing literature by assessing the causal linkages among U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (USMPU), equity market volatility, and China’s stock price index over the period from January 1994 to August 2021. We apply Granger causality in quantile analysis to explore the relationships in each quantile of the distribution in a comprehensible manner. The results indicate that equity market volatility and China’s stock price dynamics play little role in affecting USMPU. We also find that only greater changes in both positive monetary policy uncertainty and stock prices lead to changes in equity market volatility. Furthermore, fluctuations in monetary policy uncertainty and equity market volatility in the United States Granger-cause China’s stock prices. Knowing such causality results could prevent market participants from adopting a one-size-fits-all strategy.     

基于VEC模型的北京市碳价影响因素分析

碳排放权交易成为各国进行减排最主要的方式。北京在城市低碳可持续发展中发挥了至关重要的作用。通过向量误差修正（VEC）模型对北京市碳排放权交易市场的碳价进行研究，探究北京市碳交易价格的影响因素。研究结果表明，北京市碳排放权（BEA）价格与工业总产值、原油价格和温度正相关，与动力煤价格指数、沪深300指数负相关。     

Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

This article discusses the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy when the ultimate goal is to maintain price stability and limit fluctuations in real income. It is argued that judicious interpretation of asset price movements can provide information about the risks of future macroeconomic imbalances, and that this information should be utilized in monetary policy decisions. Simulations results from both theoretical and empirical models support the conceptual argument. It is stressed that policy reactions to asset prices must not follow a mechanical rule, since the appropriate response depends on the underlying shock.     

乌鲁木齐市“房价”与“地价”关系研究

在综合分析国内外相关学者对房价及地价关系分析的基础上,运用乌鲁木齐市2003年—2010年房价及地价的季度数据,在借助相关性分析模型、格兰杰因果关系检验模型、方差分析模型及非线性回归分析等统计分析模型对房价及地价的因果关系、相互影响的显著性水平以及影响程度进行深入分析。研究结果表明:乌鲁木齐市地价变化是影响房价变化的重要原因,对房价的影响具有较高的显著性,影响程度较大。     

基于EMD分解的螺纹钢期货价格发现的实证研究

运用经验模态分解方法(EMD),分别将螺纹钢期货价格和现货价格时间序列分解成若干IMF分量和趋势项。通过对分解后的不同分量进行统计和计量分析发现:①与期货价格与现货价格的相关性相比,相应的趋势项之间具有更高的相关关系;②期货价格的主IMF分量在形态上对现货价格主IMF分量具有引导作用;③IMF中期波动分量和长期波动能够很好的表现出期货价格和现货价格的因果关系。这些结果表明,螺纹钢期货市场已经基本具备了价格发现的功能。     

基于藤Copula的中外原油市场联动性研究

利用规则藤Copula模型对北大西洋布伦特原油(Brent)、西德克萨斯轻质原油(WTI)、迪拜(Dubai)、米纳斯(mns)、辛塔(xt)、大庆(dq)共6个原油市场进行建模，将6个地区原油市场间的联动性纳入一个模型之中，探讨金融危机前后我国与其他5个国际原油市场间的相依结构的变化。结果表明，金融危机的发生加深了国内外原油市场间的联动性；大庆作为藤结构第一棵树的根节点，与其他5个原油市场的联系最为紧密且均存在正向联动性，其中与米纳斯和辛塔的联动性最显著；北大西洋布伦特原油比美国西德克萨斯轻质原油对我国原油价格的影响更大。     

乌鲁木齐市住房价格合理性研究

房价问题是社会关注的焦点问题,如何科学地判断房价合理性是当前重要的研究课题。本文在借鉴国内外研究的基础上对乌鲁木齐市房价的合理性运用房价收入比、房价租金比、房价增速与GDP增速之比等方法进行分析研究。研究结果表明当前乌鲁木齐市房价的变化是合理的,今后需要采取综合措施保持房地产价格的合理性,抑制房价的过快上涨。     

房地产价格波动对居民消费的影响研究——基于30个省市自治区的面板数据

理论上,房价的上涨会通过财富效应增加居民消费,但由于我国房地产市场发展尚不成熟,房价与消费之间的关系具有不确定性。本文根据总体房地产调控政策的取向考察房价波动对消费的影响,实证结果表明房价上涨对消费的拉动作用有限,甚至产生抑制效应。结合房价波动影响消费的传导机制,本文提出要增加中低档商品房和保障性住房的供给、发展住房增值贷款以及保持房地产调控政策的连贯性等政策建议。     

Inflation and relative price variability: Evidence for India

This study decomposes relative price variability into a component due to inflation and a component due to real factors. The empirical results for India suggest that real factors account for 55% and inflation accounts for 45% of the variability in relative price changes. The proportion of inflation induced relative price variability increases with the rise in inflation, implying that inflation has distortionary effects on the structure of relative prices. Further, larger part of variability in the relative price changes seems to have been generated by fluctuations in the relative prices of a few commodities. The sector wise analysis shows that the major share of total relative price variability is contributed by fluctuations in the prices of manufactured products. The more crucial inference that emerges from the empirical analysis is that the inflation rate at which variability of relative price changes is minimum is found to be 4.5%, which is consistent with the official threshold rate often claimed by the Reserve Bank of India.     

金融危机背景下石油价格波动对我国经济影响实证分析

通过选取我国宏观经济数据中反映消费、投资、贸易、价格水平四方面22个经济指标数据,运用因子分析法提取主因子,之后采用VAR模型,分析我国石油价格波动对宏观经济产生的影响。结果表明:贸易对石油价格的变化最为敏感,前期的波动较大;石油价格上涨对消费存在逆向影响,随着价格上涨消费的变化达到低点后缓慢回升;石油价格上涨对物价水平和投资的影响相对不明显。     

Production theory under uncertain inflation

Summary and Conclusions This paper examines Chen's [1980] model of asset valuation under uncertain inflation in order to derive a static and comparative static theory of production by a competitive firm. Given the value maximizing and the price taking assumptions, the firm behaves as a profit-maximizer. The sole effect of uncertain inflation is to distort the price structure. that is, the firm adjusts the expected price of an input or output to reflect the systematic risk of that price. Because a change in circumstances can affect the systematic risk of a given price, assessing the effects of a specific policy or event solely in terms of its effect on expected price can be misleading. Parametric variations affect the structure of certainty equivalent prices. Therefore, the comparative static derivatives of the value maximizing firm emerge as extensions of the comparative static derivatives of the profit maximizing firm under certainty. Many of these comparative static derivatives are of determinant sign. The effects of changes in market uncertainty and in inflation uncertainty, while they can be characterized mathematically, cannot be signed in the general case. Cross-sectional studies indicate wide variation in the effects of inflation, so that the preceding theoretical results appear plausible. Finally, in view of the wealth of static and comparative static results which can be derived from Chen's model, that model provides a convenient benchmark against which to judge other models. Precisely because of its simple nature, Chen's model is ideal for establishing limits of analysis.     

Property-Price Determinants in Indonesia

Price formation provides critical insights into the attributes of fledgling property markets in developing countries. This article investigates asking-price formation across the Indonesian archipelago, including previously unstudied regional property markets. We compile a rich micro dataset of asking prices for residential, commercial, and undeveloped land from a nationwide classifieds database. Through a hedonic price analysis we identify the impact of property and advertisement attributes on asking prices for each type of property, using spatial fixed effects to control for spatially correlated unobservable characteristics at the district and city levels. Results indicate that property characteristics, land ownership status, and advertising method are all statistically significant indicators of asking price. We find considerable heterogeneity in asking-price formation in residential, commercial, and undeveloped land, and identify key differences between urban and rural markets.     

Some aspects of employment in Indian agriculture

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of structural differences (due to size of holding) on employment in Indian agriculture. Translog cost function is applied, and restrictions are tested using a likelihood ratio test. For small- and medium-size farms, joint estimation of a non-homothetic cost function with cost share equations is conducted, and Allen elasticities of substitution and price elasticities of demand for eight different inputs are derived. Inputs are classified as substitutes and complements using Slutsky-Hicks-Allen-Schultz definition. Each source of labor against hired labor is a substitute for small farms (0–5 hectares). Some policy analysis of rural employment and a fertilizer subsidy scheme is presented using price elasticities of demand for small and medium farms.     

Positive Feedback Trading Under Stress: Evidence from the US Treasury Securities Market

Abstract

A vector autoregression (VAR) is estimated on tick-by-tick data for quote-changes and signed trades of 2-year, 5-year and 10-year on-the-run US Treasury notes. Confirming the results found by Hasbrouck and others for the stock market, signed order flow tends to exert a strong effect on prices. More interestingly, however, there is often a strong effect in the opposite direction, particularly at times of volatile trading. Price declines elicit sales and price increases elicit purchases. An examination of tick-by-tick trading on an especially volatile day confirms this finding. At least in the US Treasury market, trades and price movements appear likely to exhibit positive feedback at short horizons, particularly during periods of market stress. This suggests that the standard analytical approach to the microstructure of financial markets, which focuses on the ways in which the information possessed by informed traders becomes incorporated into market prices through order flow, should be complemented by an account of how price changes affect trading decisions.     

煤炭价格下降对我国宏观经济的影响

煤炭在我国能源结构中居于主体地位,由于产能过剩和进口煤大量冲击,煤炭价格下降幅度较大。而煤炭价格已经接近完全市场化,电力价格仍然受政府管制,中央财经领导小组已经定调推动能源体制革命,电价市场化将是我国全面深化改革的重要内容,因此研究电价市场化和受政府管控下煤炭价格下降对宏观经济的影响具有重要的意义。论文利用CGE模型研究了两种情境下我国煤炭价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,对不同的煤炭价格冲击进行情景模拟并进行了分析,结论表明两种情境下煤炭价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业影响是不同的,并据此提供一些政策建议。