Alternatives to calorie-based indicators of food security: An application of machine learning methods

Identifying food insecure households in an accurate and cost-effective way is important for targeted food policy interventions. Since predictive accuracy depends partly on which indicators are used to identify food insecure households, it is important to assess the performance of indicators that are relatively easy and inexpensive to collect yet can proxy for the “gold standard” food security indicator, calorie intake. We study the effectiveness of different variable combinations and methods in predicting calorie-based food security among poor households and communities in rural Bangladesh. We use basic household information as a benchmark set for predicting calorie-based food security. We then assess the gain in predictive power obtained by adding subjective food security indicators (e.g., self-reported days without sufficient food), the dietary diversity score (DDS), and the combination of both sets to our model of calorie-based food security. We apply machine learning as well as traditional econometric methods in estimation. We find that the overall predictive accuracy rises from 63% to 69% when we add the subjective and DDS sets to the benchmark set. Our study demonstrates that while alternative indicators and methods are not always accurate in predicting calorie intake, DDS related indicators do improve accuracy compared to a simple benchmark set.     

Advancing a new index for measuring household vulnerability to food insecurity

This paper develops a Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index (VFII). Currently, there is no standard indicator of vulnerability analysis in food security research, and this paper responds to this challenge. The primary objective in this paper is to demonstrate how to develop a potential indicator and establish its validity through comparison with other traditional food security indicators, such as per capita calorie consumption (PCC), food consumption score (FCS) and the coping strategy index (CPI). Structurally, Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index is a multidimensional index of the probability of covariate shock occurring (exposure), the accumulative experience of food insecurity (sensitivity) and coping ability of households (adaptive capacity). The paper applies the index to households in southern Nigeria, using the World Bank’s generalised household panel dataset. The results show 61% of households in the study to be highly vulnerable to food insecurity, 12% mildly vulnerable and 27% not vulnerable. Traditional and single indicators, such as FCS and PCC are not good indicators of vulnerability to food insecurity whereas CPI is a better indicator of vulnerability to food insecurity compared to FCS and PCC. The VFII developed in this paper includes components of FCS, PCC, and CPI and regarding ranking, the VFII was found to be reliable. Most importantly, the analysis using the VFII reveals how dietary diversity or calorie consumption indicators can exclude some households who are vulnerable to food insecurity. The paper concluded that accurately target long-term support to vulnerable households, policymakers who seek to address the underlying causes of food insecurity cannot rely on single indicators, and for this type of goal, the VFII makes a useful contribution.     

Gendered impacts of the 2007–2008 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia

This paper provides empirical evidence on the gendered impact of the 2007–2008 food price crisis using panel data on 1400 households from rural Ethiopia that were initially surveyed before the onset of the crisis, in 1994–1995, 1997, and 2004, and after food prices spiked, in 2009. It investigates whether female-headed households are more likely to report experiencing a food price shock, and whether female-headed households experiencing a shock are more (or less) likely to adopt certain coping strategies, controlling for individual, household, and community characteristics. Our findings suggest that female-headed households are more vulnerable to food price changes and are more likely to have experienced a food price shock in 2007–2008. Because female-headed households are also resource poor and have a larger food gap compared with male-headed households, they cope by cutting back on the number of meals they provide their households during good months and eating less preferred foods in general. A combination of short-term measures to protect diet diversity and micronutrient consumption of vulnerable groups and longer-term measures to promote investment in sustainable agriculture, such as strengthening women’s property rights, may increase the ability of poor and vulnerable households to cope better with food price increases.     

How do indicators of household food insecurity measure up? An empirical comparison from Ethiopia

Renewed emphasis on programs and policies aimed at enhancing food security has intensified the search for accurate, rapid, and consistent indicators. Measures of food security are urgently required for purposes of early warning, assessment of current and prospective status of at-risk populations, and monitoring and evaluation of specific programs and policies. Different measures are often used interchangeably, without a good idea of which dimensions of food security are captured by which measures, resulting in potentially significant misclassification of food insecure populations. The objective of this paper is to compare how the most frequently used indicators of food security portray static and dynamic food security among the same sample of rural households in two districts of Tigray State, Northern Ethiopia. Seven food security indicators were assessed: the Coping Strategies Index (CSI); the Reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI); the Household Food Insecurity and Access Scale (HFIAS); the Household Hunger Scale (HHS); Food Consumption Score (FCS); the Household Dietary Diversity Scale (HDDS); and a self-assessed measure of food security (SAFS). These indicators provide very different estimates of the prevalence of food insecurity, but are moderately well correlated and depict generally similar food security trends over time. We suggest that the differences in prevalence estimates, and in some cases the weaker than expected correlation, can be explained in three ways. First, the indicators differ in the underlying aspect of food security they attempt to capture. Second, each indicator is likely only sensitive within a certain severity range of food insecurity and these ranges do not always overlap. Third, categorization of the prevalence of food insecurity is strongly dependent on the choice of cut-off points. For valid reasons, “food insecurity” has no accepted gold standard metric against which individual indicators can be gauged, though without one it is difficult to say which indicator performs “best” in correctly and reliably identifying food insecure households. The implication is that using more than one indicator is advisable, and policy makers should be aware of what elements of food insecurity each indicator portrays.     

Measuring food insecurity: Can an indicator based on localized coping behaviors be used to compare across contexts?

The Coping Strategies Index (CSI) was developed as a context-specific indicator of food insecurity that counts up and weights coping behaviors at the household level. It has proven useful to operational humanitarian agencies and researchers in measuring localized food insecurity, but to date has not been useful to compare the relative severity of different crises and has therefore has not been particularly useful for geographic targeting or resource allocation. This paper analyzes data from 14 surveys in crisis-affected or chronically vulnerable countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that incorporated the context-specific CSI. The paper identifies a sub-set of individual coping behaviors common to all surveys, whose severity is regarded as broadly similar by households across these studies. Data from these studies were re-analyzed using a reduced index constructed from only these behaviors. Correlations of this new index with other known food security indicators are similar to those of the complete, context-specific CSI. This suggests the possibility that an indicator based on these common behaviors could be used to compare the types of food security crises analyzed here across different contexts – particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa – to improve geographic targeting and resource allocation, according to the severity of crises. This new, more comparative indicator can be generated with no loss to the context-specific nature of the original CSI, which has proven useful for assessment and monitoring purposes.     

How New Product Strategies Impact on Performance

What is involved in a successful new product program? Is it high spending on risky R&D? Is it close contact with customers? Is it the overall competitive strength of the firm? Well, it might be any of these things, and more, according to Robert G. Cooper, depending on your definition of success. In an exhaustive examination of the new product strategies and performances of 122 industrial products firms, Cooper found that the strategy that a firm elects for its new product program is closely linked to the performance results that firm achieves. But what's performance? Cooper's analysis uncovered three different and independent ways of viewing new product performance. He brings some clarity to the meaning of a “high-performance” product innovation program, but there's a catch—the strategies leading to high performance in one direction are quite different from the strategies leading to positive results by other measures. In his summing up, Professor Cooper proposes sets of generalized strategies—guides to action—that product innovation managers should consider.     

Food aid,domestic policy and food security: Contrasting experiences from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Food aid, both for short-term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium-term food “deficits”, is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries. This study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid (India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Zambia) regarding food production, trade, markets, consumption and safety nets, as well as the policy responses to food emergencies. The widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure, is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers, and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security. However, food aid is not the only, or in many cases, the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity. In many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in-kind.     

Biases in self-reported food insecurity measurement: A list experiment approach

Measuring the incidence and intensity of food insecurity has long been a challenge due to its conceptual and practical complexity. Several scholars have proposed objective and subjective measurements to monitor or evaluate food in(security) programs. While the objective measurements such as food caloric intake and food expenditure are data demanding and costly, the subjective measurements such as experience-based food insecurity scales that use direct responses to food shortage questions can be prone to biases and misreporting due to respondents’ unobservable economic and social desirability concerns. This paper reports the biases when food shortage is asked through direct questions and indirect interviews using a list experiment approach—an approach widely used to elicit the true responses of respondents for a sensitive question. The list experiment was conducted on four selected self-reported food insecurity survey questions which represent both the availability (incidence) and access (intensity) dimensions of food security. The sample households were drawn from two districts in Northern Ethiopia where households are chronically food insecure and several projects have been implemented. The results indicate the existence of significant bias in self-reported food insecurity responses when implemented through direct interviews. The results also show that the biases, particularly the ones related to incidence questions, have led to erroneous conclusion about the impact of a food security program—the Ethiopian Household Asset Building (HAB) program. Based on the findings, the paper highlights possible options and precautionary actions for measuring food insecurity using self-reported questions.     

Assessing household food insecurity experience in the context of deforestation in Cameroon

BackgroundIn forest areas, reconciling strategies to halt deforestation and concerns to improve sustainable food supply and access is a great challenge to development planners and forest managers. This paper gathered evidence on the relationship between deforestation and food insecurity. The study was executed in Cameroon’s forest areas which constitute 10% of the Congo basin forest - an area characterized by increasing deforestation and high levels of poverty and food insecurity (FIS). The objective was to understand the characteristics, prevalence and severity of household FIS as deforestation increases. The HFIAS 9-item questionnaire for measuring experience-based FIS was used for data collection and analysis.ResultsAt least one-third of households at all levels of deforestation were severely food insecure and more than half of the population suffered from moderate to severe FIS. Most (97%) households reported experiencing food scarcity due to lack of resources. Households in the least deforested zone were better off than those in moderate and most deforested zones by most of the FIS indicators, while differences between the moderately and the most deforested zones were less distinct. Overall, considering a range of food insecurity indicators, households in the most deforested zone were the worst off.ConclusionHousehold FIS deteriorates with increasing deforestation and despite the generally favourable environmental conditions for food production, FIS was still high. This finding has major implications for development practitioners, land use planning, food security and conservation initiatives.     

Conflict,food price shocks,and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households

Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violent incidents, we examine the relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, high conflict provinces are not the most food insecure. Using a simple bivariate regression model of conflict (violent incidents and persons killed or injured) on food security (calorie intake and the real value of food consumed), we find mixed associations. But once we move to a multivariate framework, accounting for household characteristics and key commodity prices, we find robust evidence that in Afghanistan levels of conflict and food security are negatively correlated. We also find that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience muted declines in food security due to staple food price increases relative tohouseholds in provinces with lower levels of conflict, perhaps because the former are more disconnected from markets. Gaining a better understanding of linkages between conflict and food insecurity and knowing their spatial distributions can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs.     

On the costs of food price fluctuations in low-income countries

Conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low-income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects. The analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations, although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security. Even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes.     

The measurement of corporate portfolio strategy: analysis of the content validity of related diversification indexes

Measures developed for the analysis of corporate diversification have become fundamental to a broad range of strategy research. This paper examines the content validity of the two most widely used continuous measures of related diversification—the related component of the entropy index and the concentric index—and raises fundamental questions about their validity as indicators of portfolio relatedness. These questions are not driven by the use of SIC data for estimation of the indexes; they involve validity problems intrinsic to the construction of the measures. The related component of entropy and the concentric index are sensitive to features of corporate portfolio composition that may not be directly linked to portfolio relatedness. These sensitivities can create important ambiguities in strategy research. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting as an aid to R & D decision making in the nuclear power field

The pay-off from a new power system does not begin to accrue until many years after the initial research; and perhaps not until 10 years or more after major development programmes are launched. The ensuing benefit to the community in terms of reduced power costs may be spread over 30 to 40 years—combining the lifetime of the stations with the period over which they might be installed. Ideally therefore, the Atomic Energy Authority would like to have accurate forecasts of electricity demand and its characteristics in terms of load factors, etc., 30 to 40 years ahead. This paper describes attempts by the Authority to forecast electricity requirements at and beyond the end of the century as a background to their consideration of the relative merits of alternative future nuclear power systems and the distribution of research effort between them. The study was conducted between 1969 and 1971. The danger of the Middle East countries restricting oil supplies and raising prices was foreseen but in a less acute form and later than has actually occurred. The recent developments are likely to lead to pauses in economic growth followed by growth at lower rates than otherwise. Where forecasts in this article are given in the form of ranges, the lower bounds of the range are likely to apply—at least in the short and medium term.     

Household food security in semi-arid Africa—the contribution of participatory adaptive research and development to rural livelihoods in Eastern Kenya

The already precarious household food-security situation in many semi-arid areas of Africa may be rendered more so through the implementation of structural adjustment programmes that frequently prescribe austerity measures, along with a safety net to protect the vulnerable. However, longer-term development policy perspectives on the one hand, and shorter-term food-relief considerations on the other, often conflict. This paper illuminates the policy conflicts which arise when local-level research and development initiatives interface with the effects of macro-policy-initiated changes and safety-net interventions. Using a participatory agricultural research project in Eastern Kenya as a case study, the paper describes specific household food-security problem diagnosis and a range of research interventions planned within a more sustainable rural livelihoods framework. Working with local farmers, the project implemented a range of applied research and linked development interventions that showed promise in easing food security through a broadening of the livelihood base. Some of these initiatives were carried further through the local farmers' own initiative. The conclusion is that semi-arid areas, despite views that see these as low-potential and obvious safety-net candidates, often have potential for agricultural intensification and increased productivity. However, to ensure that research results are utilised and farmers have access to new technology and markets, there is a need for external or public-sector support to integrated longer-term development initiatives. This may require rethinking the scope of research and development approaches, particularly removing unhelpful boundaries between research, extension and development functions, and increasing farmer participation in the whole process—if possible as part of a less centralised and more household-oriented approach to food-security policy and strategy.     

Intensification scenarios in south-western Niger: Implications for revisiting fertilizer policy

In semi-arid south-western Niger, external fertilizer inputs are a complement of livestock-mediated nutrient transfers for maintaining soil fertility. This paper discusses scenarios of intensification for different farm household types in an area representative of the wetter parts of semi-arid Sahel. Twenty-five-year projections suggest that soil fertility may not always or irreversibly deteriorate under intensification, and that nitrogen is the main external input required. Owning animals allows some households to achieve food security and maintain soil fertility by capturing and mobilizing soil nutrients. Intensification will bring various benefits to livelihoods, but these will be unevenly distributed. The results of this paper should caution scientists and policy-makers against the often heard warning of inevitable losses in soil fertility in the Sahel associated with intensive technologies, and against extrapolating conclusions attained at specific locations or social groups. Endogenous coping strategies based on using local inputs can also be effective and should be explored in addition to a continued attention for the need for more targeted uses of external inputs.     

The food security challenge for southern Africa

This paper considers food security aims and instruments against a background of changed circumstances internationally and regionally. The international changes discussed are: a sharper focus on achieving macro-economic stabilization, which inter alia has led to closer scrutiny of what the public sector should be financing, and a decline in funding for agriculture; a reduced role for governments in commercial-type activities; the shift towards greater integration of world markets; and changing prospects for international aid flows. Regionally, southern Africa is moving away from a past of conflict and inward-looking economies, towards greater cooperation and trade, and less interventionist economic management.The commendable SADC food security strategy paper of June 1997 is considered, and its implications drawn out. The main messages are that (a) household food insecurity results from poverty, (b) national food insecurity results from faltering development and weak external trade performance, and (c) future strategies must therefore lie with greater efficiency in the use of resources and with patterns of development which are most effective in creating employment and incomes. Arguably there is therefore no case for a food security agenda that is separate from broad-based development aimed at poverty alleviation. This understanding of food security is at variance with some of the policies and development programmes in the region. Promotion of self-sufficiency in grains, specific food-security instruments, and controls over and interventions in markets may all be counter to improving food security for the region if they hinder policy and institutional reforms called for by the wider development agenda.The main roles for governments in promoting food security are discussed in terms of creating an enabling environment for development, correcting for market failures, and targeted measures to achieve social objectives. Food security needs both an urban and a rural focus, and involves all economic sectors. For rural areas, governments' roles may usefully be defined in terms of supporting household strategies aimed at raising and stabilizing incomes through livelihood diversification, intensification of farming, and migration.Two priority policy areas which are central to achieving food security objectives are discussed at some length: trade policy and the promotion of smallholder farming. The roles of government in these areas are discussed in the light of economic theory and past experiences in the region. A vision for a future trade regime is outlined, and strategic interventions by governments are identified. The challenge for governments in supporting smallholder farming is, first, to define with greater rigour than in the past the priority uses for public funds, and, second, to find much more efficient ways of delivering services than in the past. It will otherwise be difficult to make a case for reversing the decline in public funding for the sector.The paper ends with brief discussions of the roles for aid and for SADC in promoting food security, and with a question of whether a new initiative is needed to strengthen trade policy skills in the region.     

The impact of household food consumption data collection methods on poverty and inequality measures in Niger

Many countries are faced with the problem of monitoring poverty indicators when different food data collection methodologies have been used in national household surveys over the years. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of this problem in the case of Niger. The paper assesses the impact of three methods of food data collection on the welfare distribution, and poverty and inequality measures in Niger. The study leverages a food consumption experiment to evaluate the three methods of food data collection implemented in the country’s most recent national household surveys. The first method was 7-day recall, the second was usual month, and the third was 7-day diary. The study finds that there was a large difference in measures of consumption and poverty between the first two methods (which yielded similar results) and the 7-day diary method. Annual per capita consumption from the 7-day recall method was, on average, 28 percent higher than that from the 7-day diary method. This gap exists not only at the mean of the distribution, but at every level. The observed differences in measured annual per capita consumption leads to differences in poverty and inequality measures even when alternate poverty lines are used.     

Brazilian agricultural research: Export vs nutrition

Agricultural research in poor countries tends to be considerably more efficient for export crops than for local food crops. Dr Pastore presents a tentative theoretical explanation of this differential development of agricultural research systems in the same country and uses Brazil as a case study. The well developed research for key export products — coffee, sugar and cotton — and the underdeveloped research on the food crops — rice, beans and maize — are discussed. Dr Pastore suggests that, if the problems of malnutrition are to be overcome, research on export products should be largely privately financed while that on food crops should be entirely and heavily financed by the government.     

One more tool for the food aid toolbox? Experimental evidence on food aid packaging

International food assistance reaches more than 90 million people per year, much of it through in-kind programs that distribute food. Several key aspects of in-kind programs—what food is shipped, when and from where it is sourced—have been changed to improve program effectiveness and efficiency, becoming helpful tools in the modernized in-kind food assistance toolbox. Packaging—in what food is shipped—remains an unstudied and underused tool despite more than 50 million bags per year passing through in-kind supply chains, affecting program effectiveness and efficiency. We conduct an experiment with 46 shipments using different packaging materials and sizes to measure the effect of packaging on shipment quality, cost, and timeliness. Analyzing the data with randomization tests, we find that, relative to the current materials, new materials maintain shipment quality and cost while improving timeliness and in some cases may reduce cost. One promising material that balances cost and effectiveness is a bag with a biopesticide applied, designed to prevent insects from reproducing. We also find that, relative to the current size, larger bags may improve costs at least in the domestic portion of the supply chain. Donors and their partners should consider packaging as one more tool in the modernized food assistance toolbox. As the toolbox continues to fill, the coming opportunity and challenge to identify situations where the various tools work in complementary ways.     

Agricultural labour productivity,food prices and sustainable development impacts and indicators

In the last few years high and unstable food and agricultural commodity prices and concerns about population growth, increasing per capita food demands and environmental constraints have pushed agriculture and food production up national and international political, policy and research agendas. Drawing on both theory and empirical evidence, this paper argues that fundamental impacts of links between agricultural productivity sustainability and real food price changes are often overlooked in current policy analysis. This is exacerbated by a lack of relevant and accessible indicators for monitoring agricultural productivity sustainability and real food prices. Two relatively simple and widely applicable sets of indicators are proposed for use in policy development and monitoring. Historical series of these indices are estimated for selected countries, regions and the world. Their strengths, weaknesses and potential value are then discussed in the context of the need for better sustainable agricultural development and food security indicators in any post 2015 successors to the current MDGs.