Structural Adjustment Policies and the Kenyan Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis

A computable general equilibrium model is used to analyse policies under structural adjustment programmes for Kenya. The model was used to analyse the economic implications of two key elements in the structural adjustment programmes, namely fiscal adjustment and trade liberalization. In each case, three options were considered: fiscal adjustment through expenditure cuts, indirect tax increases and direct tax increase; trade liberalization through tariff reductions with no mitigating measures, accompanied by indirect tax increases or by increased foreign aid. Although the results do not support the application of one option in respect of all variables, they suggest that fiscal austerity through raising indirect taxes and trade liberalization supported by foreign aid inflows achieve the best overall outcomes. Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable est utilisé pour analyser les politiques mises en œuvre dans le cadre des programmes d'ajustement structurel au Kenya. Ce modèle a servi à analyser les implications économiques de deux éléments fondamentaux des programmes d'ajustement structurel, à savoir l'ajustement des politiques budgétaires et la libéralisation des échanges. Dans chaque cas, trois options ont été envisagées: l'ajustement des politiques budgétaires par la compression des dépenses et l'augmentation des impôts indirects et directs; la libéralisation des échanges par l'abaissement des tarifs douaniers sans mesures d'atténuation, accompagnée de l'augmentation des impôts indirects ou de l'aide extérieure. Si les résultats ne permettent pas de privilégier l'une ou l'autre option, compte tenu de toutes les variables, ils portent à croire néanmoins que l'austérité budgétaire par l'augmentation des impôts indirects et la libéralisation des échanges soutenue par des apports d'aide extérieure favorisent les meilleurs résultats globaux.     

Technical Efficiency Change in Kenyan Agriculture and the Poor: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis.

Abstract: A computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the allocative as well as distributional impact of fifty percent input specific and ten percent general technical efficiency change in Kenyan agriculture. Two alternative specifications of the labour market are adopted to assess the sensitivity of model result to particular conditions prevailing in the labour market. The Kenyan Social Accounting Matrix is used in the model, though this has been aggregated and dis-aggregated in the light of other evidence and arranged to follow the transaction value (TV) approach. Technical efficiency change does not appear to be significantly affected by the different specifications. Input specific technical efficiency change results in a small improvement in agricultural production, income and the GDP. The impact, though small, is mixed on labour employment. General efficiency improvement on the other hand, results in a significant boost to agricultural production and a modest improvement in GDP; it also results in a boost to household income and real consumption. Résumé: On a utilisé un modèle informatisé d'équilibre général pour analyser l'impact de l'affectation et de la distribution de cinquante pour cent du changement de l'efficacité technique liéà des facteurs spécfiques, et de dix pour cent du changement général de l'efficacité technique, sur l'agriculture kényane. On a adopté deux caractéristiques interchangeables du marché du travail pour évaluer la sensibilityé du résultat du modèle vis-à-vis des conditions particulières qui prévalent sur le marché du travail. La matrice de comptabilité sociale du Kenya a été utilisée dans le modèle, bien que celuici ait été globalisé puis venulé en fonction d'autres données, et aménagé pour tenir compte de la méthode de la valeur de transaction. Le changement de l'efficacité technique ne semble pas être affecté de manière significative par les différents caractéristiques. Le changement de l'efficacité technique dûà des facteurs spécifiques provoque une petite amélioration de la production agricole, du revenu et du PIB. Et l'impact, quoique minime, est tout de même varié en ce qui concerne l'utilisation de la main-d'œuvre. Par contre, l'amélioration de l'efficacité généerale donne une grande impulsion à la production agricole et génère une légère amélioration du PIB; il stimule également le revenu et la consommation réelle des ménages.     

Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research

This paper surveys recent advances in the field of computable general and partial equilibrium models dealing with pension issues that take into account various aspects of uncertainty. Whereas previous quantitative research with deterministic models solely focussed on efficiency losses due to labor market distortions from pay-as-you-go (paygo) financing, stochastic simulation models highlight the insurance effects of social security systems and allow to quantify the welfare consequences from myopic behavior. The results from these studies challenge the common wisdom about the cost and benefits of social security. While previous studies typically either recommended a move towards a more funded system or proposed a tight tax-benefit linkage, recent results from stochastic models indicate that welfare losses due to reduced insurance coverage compensate the gains due to improved labor market incentives. Consequently, paygo financing and progressive benefit formulas should not be eliminated on pure efficiency grounds. Current research tries to qualify whether this conclusion is robust in models with private insurance institutions and/or macroeconomic risks.     

Export Demand and Botswana's Beef Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Abstract: A 15-sector Comparable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, based on 1992/93 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), is used to simulate the effects of changes in the world price of beef on the Botswana's beef industry, employment, exports and aggregate output. Résumé: Un modèle d'équilibre général comparable à 15 secteurs, fondé sur la matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) de 1992/93, est utilisé pour simuler les incidences des fluctuations des prix mondiaux de la viande bovine sur l'industrie du boeuf, l'emploi, les exportations et la production globale au Botswana.     

Effects of Trade Liberalization on Taiwan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Joining the GATT has been established as one of the most important economic and political targets of the Taiwan government. However, the effects of this action are difficult to establish. Because of the openness of Taiwan's domestic market there could be serious changes in the production structure and income distribution, especially in the relative status of the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, of protected and unprotected sectors, and also of producers and consumers. The possible high cost of this move on society has caused its necessity to be questioned. In order to clear up the controversy surrounding this issue, this paper, uses a CGE model to analyse the possible effects of this policy change. Following proposals from the Final Draft of the Uruguay Round, we use tariff and nontariff barriers, aggregate measurement of support (AMS), and export quota in our model as policy tools. We omit liberalization in the service sector, because of quantification difficulties. Our analysis includes the impacts on resource allocation, production structure, income distribution and consumers' welfare.     

Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Model

For the purposes of this study, we will construct a static monopolistically‐competitive computable general equilibrium model to quantify the endogenous productivity spillovers from foreign and domestic firms, using the Chinese economy as a case study. Our simulation results indicate: (i) that the net spillover effects are positive in terms of national total output, GDP and welfare; (ii) that both state‐owned and privately‐owned firms benefit, but that private firms benefit more; (iii) that industries with large volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI) do not necessarily observe the largest spillover effects; and (iv) that the spillover effects become more prominent when the initial market structure is more concentrated.     

基于可计算一般均衡方法的增值税转型优化研究

论文运用可计算一般均衡方法分析了2009年消费型增值税转型改革后的进一步优化问题。研究发现＂拓宽税基＋降低税率＂组合方式远比单边调整更为可取,这种组合方案进行的越彻底,越能满足增值税改革的政策目标和当前宏观经济形势需要。针对当前改革的不足,并提出了新方案下可能产生的一些问题及解决思路。新的＂一步到位＂方案,不仅可以更好地满足税收收入中性条件,更有利于增加有效需求,提高国民经济整体效益,增强综合国力和国际竞争力,这在当前的宏观经济形势下具有重要意义。     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定对中国纺织品服装出口的潜在影响——基于一般均衡模型的评估

本文基于全球贸易分析(GTAP)一般均衡(CGE)模型,就TPP对中国纺织品服装出口的潜在影响进行了定量评估。研究结果表明,TPP实施后,在贸易转移效应和美洲及亚洲纺织品服装区域性生产贸易网络(RPTN)等因素的共同作用下,中国对美国、日本和北美自由贸易区(主要为加拿大)市场的服装出口将大幅减少;中国纺织品一定程度上可以享受越南和亚洲地区TPP成员对进口纺织品需求增加而带来的额外出口机会,但也将面临日本纺织品贸易转移效应的冲击;日本加入TPP对中国纺织品服装出口负面影响巨大。本文的研究内容和结论对于我国广大纺织服装出口企业了解TPP生效后出口环境的变化以及国家层面贸易、产业政策的制定具有重要的参考价值。     

Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy, 1996–2003: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

We use the MONASH‐VN model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Vietnamese economy, to investigate Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favorable shifts in foreign demand for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.     

Taiwan's External Imbalance and Structural Adjustment: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

Taiwan's trade surplus reached about one-fifth of GNP by 1986, becoming the source of attention and criticism from the international community. Realizing it is to her own benefit to reduce the surplus, and also in order to ease outside pressure, Taiwan started to take measures of macroeconomic adjustments, including currency appreciation and expansionary fiscal policies. Trade surplus was reduced to 8.1% of GNP by 1989, as a result of increases in domestic demand accompanied by decreases in demand from abroad. At the same time the sectoral structure of Taiwan's economy changed: the share of non-tradable sectors (mainly construction and services) expanded while that of the tradable ones (agriculture and manufacturing) shrank. This paper uses a 27-sector computable general equilibrium model to investigate the comparative statics of changes in Taiwan's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in 1989. Results of the model's counter factual policy simulations indicate expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are effective in reducing the external imbalance. In particular if public investment and money supply were raised by respectively 20% and 10% above the actual values, current account surplus as a percentage of GNP could be reduced from 8.52% to 6.91% in that year, and resources shifts from the tradable to the non-tradable sectors would be strengthened. They also indicate that to achieve a given target of reduction in external imbalance, there are trade-offs between expansionary fiscal policies and currency appreciation and between expansionary monetary policies and currency appreciation. For instance to reduce the current account surplus ratio to 5.04 of GNP, a 15% (10%) increase in public investment (money supply) would have to be accompanied by a 31% (29%) appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate.     

Poverty Effects of the Philippines’ Tariff Reduction Program: Insights from a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

A computable general equilibrium micro‐simulation model is used to assess the economic and poverty impacts of tariff reduction in the Philippines. Tariff reduction induces consumers to substitute cheaper imported agricultural products for domestic goods, thereby resulting in a contraction in agricultural output. In contrast, tariff reduction reduces the domestic cost of production, benefiting the outward‐oriented and import‐dependent industrial sector. The national poverty headcount decreases marginally as lower consumer prices outweigh the nominal income reduction experienced by the majority of households. However, both the poverty gap and severity of poverty worsens, implying that the poorest of the poor become even poorer.     

全面减免东盟关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.本文在Chingem模型的基础上,分析了2010年中国全面减免东盟原六国关税对中国宏观经济和产业的长期影响.在原模型的基础上,改进了宏观闭合条件.将原来作为剩余量处理的居民消费与居民收入联系起来,使经济增长会作用到居民消费,使模拟结果更加符合实际.研究表明全面减免对东盟的关税有利于我国经济的和谐发展;减少了经济增长对净出口的依赖;促进了进、出口商品结构的升级;促进了服务业的发展,但农业和制造业的一些部门会受到负面影响;制造业的就业会下降,服务业和农业的就业会上升.     

货币、资本与一般均衡理论

本文试图对剑桥资本争论和货币纯理论的逻辑争论提供一种解释,从而把古典学派和马克思经济学的价值、分配理论与凯恩斯的货币理论或“宏观经济学”的分析结合起来,建立一种新的理论体系以取代目前居主流地位的新古典理论。由此所推论出的经验意义上的结论是,由国民收入核算体系所表明的所有统计量值与新古典理论的生产函数或技术分析是完全无关的,而是来自于资本主义经济关系。这种资本主义经济关系的基础是建立在以获取利润为目     

财政支出、居民消费与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的分析

在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入财政支出冲击和居民消费习惯,将财政支出分为生产性支出和消费性支出,分别纳入生产函数和总消费函数,通过DSGE模型模拟了财政支出对居民消费、产出、就业、投资等经济变量的动态影响。模拟结果显示财政支出增加对居民消费产生了挤出效应,而对产出、就业等经济变量产生挤入效应。考虑消费习惯后,经济变量对外生冲击的响应呈驼峰状,并且影响程度加大。因此,合理划分政府支出的类型并恰当评估居民的消费习惯对把握财政政策的操作力度甚为重要。