Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy, 1996–2003: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

We use the MONASH‐VN model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Vietnamese economy, to investigate Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favorable shifts in foreign demand for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.     

Growth accounting for a technology follower in a world of ideas: The case of Singapore

We account for the sources of Singapore's growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore benefits from international R&D spillovers. We find that 61.5% of Singapore's real GDP per worker growth over the 1970–2004 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. More specifically, 52.1% of the growth is explained by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas through improvement in Singapore's educational quality as well as increases in machinery imports and foreign direct investment from the G5 countries. Taking account of technology transfer raises the average rate of return to capital to 12.5%.     

税收征管与企业对外投资:来自“金税工程三期”的证据

近些年来，我国对外投资规模迅猛增长，税收征管强度也在不断提升。那么，税收征管是否推动了中国企业的对外投资行为呢？鉴于鲜有文献探讨这一极具现实意义的话题，本文利用"金税工程三期"政策上线这一提高税收征管能力的准自然实验，采用双重差分法首次实证检验了税收征管对企业对外投资行为的影响作用。研究发现："金税工程三期"这一增加企业纳税遵从度、促进"应收尽收"的税收征管政策冲击显著地提高了企业对外投资的可能性、增加了企业对外投资规模，并且这一结论在引入更多控制变量并排除同期其他政策干扰、安慰剂检验、更换样本周期、倾向得分匹配分析等情况下依旧稳健。潜在的影响机制分析发现，"金税工程三期"这一税收征管政策冲击增加了企业的避税动机，表现为企业偏好于向税率低的东道国进行投资。异质性检验结果显示，"金税工程三期"这一税收征管政策冲击对企业对外投资行为的影响作用在不同对外投资事件类型、不同所有制类型的企业、不同地区、不同行业之间存在明显差异。最后，依据本文结论提出了积极落实减税降费政策、适度地提升银行业竞争水平的政策建议。     

乌兹别克斯坦投资法律环境的利弊分析

中国与乌兹别克斯坦建交以来,两国间贸易额连年增长,乌兹别克斯坦已成为我国在中亚五国中的第三大贸易投资伙伴,但中国投资者因对乌兹别克斯坦投资法律环境了解不够充分而导致投资失败的案例举不胜举。深入分析乌兹别克斯坦投资法律环境的利弊将有利于中国投资者审慎决策,为此,本文对乌兹别克斯坦的投资法律环境进行了分析,认为有利方面表现在鸟兹别克斯坦不断完善其税收体系、从法律上保障外国投资者的权益、对内外资提供基本一致的法律保护和向外资提供各种优惠政策等;不利方面表现在对外资准入、企业经营以及外资退出等方面还存在着不同程度的限制。     

Exploring ‘onward-journey’ ODI strategies in China's private sector businesses

Are the internationalization strategies of China's private businesses different from those of state-owned businesses? To date, little systematic empirical research addresses this question, despite the now well-established arguments that market and institutional imperfections influence the outward foreign direct investment (ODI) of China's state sector MNEs. Why is so little known about private sector foreign direct investment? One important reason is that private companies have gone to considerable lengths to conceal their activities by using offshore holding companies in tax havens. This paper, using a sample of offshore listed companies that are privately controlled, investigates what we dub ‘onward-journeying’ – foreign direct investment undertaken via tax havens. In doing so it further explores the ODI strategies of some of China's most successful private companies.     

Singapore's Perspectives on the Proliferation of RTAs in East Asia and Beyond

Abstract

In this article the viewpoints and adopted strategies of Singapore in managing its trading relationship with other countries in the world is discussed. Trade being the lifeline and basis for its economic survival, Singapore has been very active in the negotiation and establishment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries, practically in every continent. Singapore's activism in bilateral FTAs is a reinforcement of its development strategy of expanding and ensuring market access for local and foreign investors. This is also in alignment with Singapore's pro- business strategy philosophy and the objective of ensuring economic viability. Also Singapore's trade accords go beyond trade liberalization and include “behind the border” impediments to trade; this is reckoned to keep the momentum of trade talk going and to hasten the process of liberalization by inducing other countries to liberalize.     

Credibility and Reputation Building in the Developmental State: A Model with East Asian Applications

We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the role of credibility, reputation and investment coordination in a developmental state. Our model focuses on why a “soft” state serving narrow social groups so often obtains in less-developed countries and under what conditions a “hard” or developmental state can emerge. The model highlights the dilemma that although state and private sector alike may want economic growth, both must simultaneously invest to achieve it. But the equilibrium outcome—analogous to the prisoner's dilemma—is investment by neither. Even when initial conditions are favorable and a state is potentially developmental with the genuine capability to elicit private sector investment, this may not materialize and an equilibrium of low, or no, investment will prevail. To avoid this deadlock and foster growth, the successful developmental state must demonstrate commitment by promoting its “developmental” credentials through a process of reputation building. A consequent incentive to act “tough” together with seeming advantages of authoritarianism in implementing the developmental state may help to explain why it is often associated with an authoritarian political system.     

Survey of Recent Developments

Amid global economic uncertainty and tumbling world oil prices, Indonesia's economy faces pressure on its external balance and a continued growth slowdown. The government of President Joko Widodo (widely known as Jokowi) has set an agenda of reform, including simpler, faster investment licensing, historic cuts to fuel subsidies to generate fiscal savings, and increased spending on infrastructure. On the political side, Jokowi has had to deal with several political issues coming not only from parties in opposition but also from parties supporting his government, including during the formation of the new cabinet. We examine the consequences so far of the government's policy initiatives and of the policymaking process. While some initiatives have been implemented with success, some seem to have been launched without enough preparation, consultation, or empirical evidence, and many have been poorly communicated. Although inflation accelerated after the November fuel-price rise, efforts have been made to contain inflationary expectations and to mitigate the effects on poverty through social-assistance programs. The government took steps to cushion the impending impacts of higher fuel prices on vulnerable households by giving cash handouts of Rp 200,000 per month to 15.5 million disadvantaged families who receive the lowest level of welfare, and by promoting publicly funded education and health care. The partial removal of gasoline subsidies and the introduction of a fixed-subsidy policy for diesel in the revised 2015 budget reduce uncertainty about the fiscal position, although increases in government spending in infrastructure development were announced at the same time. The revised budget for 2015 increases spending on infrastructure development by 63% from the 2014 budget, mostly on projects to improve connectivity on land and at sea—such as the development of toll roads, railways, and ports—and to increase the performance of the agricultural sector. However, the recent drop in international oil prices forced the government to increase its target for tax revenue by 30% on last year's target, raising concerns about the effect of falling oil prices on the economy. Trade and investment policy reform is important in unlocking Indonesia's growth potential and improving the country's current external balance. Jokowi's administration, however, has been sending mixed signals about its position towards more open policies. The country has yet to recommence several trade negotiations that were postponed in 2014 and is still struggling to meet its commitments under the ASEAN Economic Community. Although improvement in investment procedures and licensing is currently underway, Indonesia needs to adopt a more positive attitude if it is to attract more investment.     

The impact of government's fundings and tax incentives on industrial R&D investments—Empirical evidences from industrial sectors in Shanghai

This paper is an empirical assessment of the impact of government's direct fundings and tax incentives on R&D investments of industrial sectors in Shanghai. The analysis is based on a panel consisting of 32 industrial sectors for the period 1993–2002.The general finding is that both government's direct fundings as an incentive stimulating policy instrument and industrial sectors' own fundings in science and technology activities have positive effects on the industrial R&D investment. The stability of the policy further enhances the positive effect. However, the effect of the tax incentives is not straightforward. We observe that the enterprises in the industrial sectors tend to switch to more general and less costly science and technology activities, which can be regarded as a less desirable effect of the tax incentives.     

Official Development Assistance and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: Foreign direct investment is believed to have a positive impact on the economies of the developing countries but its determinants are not yet fully established. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between official development assistances and foreign direct investment flows using panel data from 11 sub‐Saharan African countries for the period 1990–2003. The results show that bilateral official development assistance has a significant and positive influence on foreign direct investment flows. The results also show that trade openness, growth rate in the labor force, and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment flows. But multilateral development assistance, the growth rate in GDP per capita, the country's composite risk level, and the index for political freedom and civil liberties do not have a statistically significant effect on foreign direct investment flows. The policy implication of the positive and significant influence of the bilateral official development assistance on foreign direct investment is that the recipient countries need to formulate policies that improve their economic relationships with the donor countries in order to attract greater foreign direct investment flows from the multilateral corporations located in these countries.     

企业国际化发展中税收政策运用的国际比较

政府税收政策的制定和实施对企业的国际化发展起重要的促进作用,无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,税收政策都为企业的发展融入全球经济提供了必不可少的条件。随着中国经济形势的变化和发展,我国税收政策面临诸多挑战,和发达国家比较,不仅存在一些不合理的因素,甚至和有些发展中国家的某些税收政策相比,也有不足之处。本文试图分别从出口、海外引资及境外投资等3种企业国际化主要形式入手,对比典型发达国家及发展中国家与我国政府税收政策的差异、优劣,佐证企业的国际化发展绝对离不开政府税收政策的支持和指导,也离不开具体的税收制度提供的服务和帮助。     

Binding constraints to productive investment in Malawi: A modified HRV framework

The paper applies a modified Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (HRV) growth diagnostics framework to analyse Malawi's growth challenges. The study finds five critical binding constraints affecting productive investment and output growth in Malawi. These include land administration, taxation, customs and trade regulations, political governance, and cost‐of‐finance. Land constraints are evidenced by highly urban and rural population growth, an inverse co‐movement between the rural population and investment per capita, and low land administration indices. Tax constraints are evidenced by the negative growth of investment per capita. Customs and trade regulations constraints are evidenced by nontariff measures, such as high costs and the time it takes to export and import. Political governance constraints are evidenced by rising government debt and the low score on transparency, accountability, and corruption based on the World Bank's Public Transparency Scale. Lastly, high cost‐of‐finance constraints are evidenced by monetary policy challenges, such as high real interest rates, inflation rate, uncompetitive exchange rate, and foreign aid ineffectiveness. Therefore, we recommend that the formulation of crucial policy strategies to alleviate these five significant binding constraints be encouraged. The government should base such an approach to sound growth therapeutics that fully account for each challenge's root causes.     

数字普惠金融对家庭投资绩效的影响分析

家庭如何利用好数字普惠金融的发展,对于实现家庭投资绩效的增长具有重要意义。但目前,中国家庭投资多样性和投资绩效都还不高,家庭风险-报酬比也远远低于国外。所以,探讨数字普惠金融对中国家庭投资绩效的影响就显得较为重要。通过对中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）4年数据为基础进行实证分析发现,数字普惠金融显著地促进了家庭投资绩效与投资多样性的增长。进一步分析发现,中国家庭投资过于偏好投资性房地产,农村地区数字普惠金融发展还不充分。这为中国深化金融改革、扶贫攻坚战略提供了部分经验证据。     

Dawn of Industrialisation? The Indonesian Automotive Industry

This article traces the development of industrial policy towards the Indonesian motor industry within the automotive global value chain. Showing the current dominance of Japanese motor assemblers in Indonesia, it notes the rather undeveloped nature of the locally owned supporting industry, particularly compared with that of neighbouring Thailand. Most investment in auto-parts production has been by foreigners. Nevertheless, Indonesia's rapid domestic-market growth has allowed it to attract foreign automotive investment without having to offer excessively generous incentives. While the continued entry of foreign suppliers of auto parts into Indonesia offers opportunities for local suppliers to upgrade their productive capabilities, it also limits their chances of becoming first-tier suppliers themselves. Japanese automotive investors are optimistic about Indonesia's export potential, more so than Malaysia's.     

FDI与我国高技术产业技术创新关系研究——基于2005-2014年省际面板数据

改革开放以来，中国大量吸引外商直接投资，期望以此提升国内的技术创新能力。然而，在当前的背景下，我国期望通过FDI提高技术创新能力的目标是否已经实现？我国各地区高新技术产业究竟需不需要外资？等问题值得我们深入研究。实证结果表明：FDI对我国东部地区高技术产业的影响为正，对其他地区影响为负。因此，应当根据我国各地区高技术产业发展水平，实施差异化引资策略，加强知识积累、人力资本建设，为高技术产业的发展提供基础。     

How Chinese firms learn technology from transnational corporations: A comparison of the telecommunication and automobile industries

China has been utilizing foreign direct investment (FDI) based on the strategy of “trading market access for technology” since 1978. However, there are differences in opinion regarding the performance of China's strategy. This paper examines the growth of technological capability of Chinese indigenous firms under a revised model of technological learning and catch-up based on research by Kim (1997) and Lee and Lim (2001). The paper investigates the process of industrial growth in China by developing the two cases of the telecommunication equipment industry and the automobile industry, and analyzes the aforementioned strategy from the viewpoint of technological learning and industrial catch-up. This study finds that knowledge was gained by leveraging China's huge market to “trade market access for technology”, and that indigenous firms must enhance the intensity of their efforts to assimilate acquired technologies so as to improve their technological capabilities. Through comparison of the two industries, we find that industrial policy regulating private firms’ market access directly affects the performance of the industrial catch-up.     

Behavioral and empirical perspectives on FDI: International capital allocation across Asia

We investigate Asia's recent experience in international capital allocation through flows of foreign direct investment. A calibrated general equilibrium model with a new capital flow modelling component is applied to highlight underlying relationships between a Heckscher-Ohlin (labor and capital) endowment perspective and such considerations as human capital, productivity, endogenous growth, and institutional behavior. Our results support the argument that all these factors played a role in Asia's recent growth, to different degrees in different countries, with complex relationships to investment incentives. In addition, new directions for further research in the FDI-growth linkages policy area are identified.     

AVAR Analysis of the Impacts of Company Tax Rates on Foreign Direct Investment and other Macro-economic Variables in Australia

Abstract

Taxation policy has been recognized as a main determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the effect of taxation policy on other key macro-economic variables of interest has received little attention in the literature. This paper seeks to establish the long-run effects of a change in the Australian company tax rate on inbound FDI and other Australian macro-economic variables using vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to account for the interrelatedness of the variables under consideration. Results indicate that FDI, real gross domestic product (GDP) and trade with the rest of the world are all responsive to a change in the company tax rate.     

Aid for Trade in Developing Countries: Complex Linkages for Real Effectiveness*

Abstract: Aid for trade is intended to support the integration of developing countries into the world trading system. Although this form of aid is being hailed as a promising new development tool, it lacks the strategic dimension that it needs if it is to be truly effective and fulfill donors' policy commitments. From a theoretical perspective, this paper presents the various aid‐for‐trade categories and analyzes the linkages between foreign direct investment, aid for trade and development. It also presents a typology of trade‐related needs for a panel of countries, to serve as a guide for donors in formulating their aid supply strategies. This typology reveals a number of disparities between countries and regions, as well as a low level of regional integration. Trade‐related needs are particularly significant in West Africa and East Africa, and substantial in the infrastructure sector. This paper also stresses the importance of refining the formulation of actual demand by beneficiaries, structuring the aid supply in accordance with donors' specific areas of expertise and enhancing coordination among the various stakeholders, both public and private. Lastly, further trade liberalization will not by itself suffice to generate strong growth and improve the geographical and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment. Factors such as political stability, the business climate, physical infrastructure, institutions and human capital also play a fundamental role. Of particular importance is the coherence of trade, sectoral, macroeconomic and tax policies, not only within each country and region but also between industrialized and developing countries.