Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

The German bank–growth nexus revisited: savings banks and economic growth in Prussia†

This article provides evidence that smaller, regional public financial intermediaries contributed to Germany's industrial development, using a new dataset of the foundation year and location of Prussian savings banks. This extends the bank–growth nexus beyond its traditional focus on large universal banks. Since savings banks were public financial intermediaries, our results further suggest that state intervention can be successful in the financial sector, particularly at the early stages of industrial development when capital requirements are manageable, and access to international capital markets is limited.     

金融发展与经济增长互动机制初探

针对金融发展理论与实证研究的分歧,引出金融发展的度量问题。本文将分歧的产生归因于两点:一是对金融发展的度量常常局限于对金融中介的度量,而忽视金融市场;二是有关金融发展指标没有考虑金融风险因素。进一步从金融生态的角度,探讨金融发展与经济增长的互动关系,建立了分析金融发展与经济增长相互关系的指标体系。     

金融中介、股票市场与经济增长:基于联立方程模型的实证分析

文章利用1998～2009年的季度数据,通过构建联立方程模型,利用GMM估计方法系统考察了中国金融中介、股票市场与经济增长之间的相互关系.实证研究结果表明:金融中介发展与经济增长二者相互影响,但作用方向不同:金融中介的总体规模对经济发展的影响为负;经济增长对于金融中介的发展存在显著的正向作用;股票市场发展与经济增长二者...     

国际金融资本流动规模研究——中国案例

直接法在考虑国际收支平衡表正常统计项目的基础上,通过对隐藏在贸易、直接投资等渠道中的资本流动进行合理调整,估算出中国金融资本流出流入规模.结果表明,中国正经历着金融资本的双向流动,且隐性资本流动占据主导地位.经济发展和人民币升值预期是影响资本流动的重要因素,放松资本管制在短期内难以缓解升值压力,长期内国内金融市场深化将促进金融资本有序正常流动.     

基于在岸金融市场视角的日元国际化进程与启示

最近几年,日元国际化程度不见提高,反而不断被边缘化,成为国际经济活动中的非主流货币。为此,文章从微观角度研究日本国内金融市场对日元国际化进程的支持力度。研究发现,受国内经济长期衰退影响,日本股票市场表现不及其他发达市场;其债券市场发展不平衡,国债市场独大,公司债券市场萎靡,并且资本项目开放不完全限制了债券市场发展;其衍生品市场也缺乏国际竞争力。换言之,日本在岸金融市场发展直接制约了日元国际化进程。     

Financial Development,Capital Accumulation and Productivity Improvement: Evidence from China

Financial sector development may contribute to economic growth by facilitating capital accumulation and by improving productivity. This article investigates empirically the contribution that financial development may make to these two alternative drivers of economic growth in China using annual data for the period 1952 to 2005. Using cointegration and Granger-causality testing we examine the relationship between financial development and, respectively, capital accumulation and productivity in a time-series vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The substantive findings are that there is either bi-directional Granger causality between financial development and capital accumulation or that Granger causality runs from capital accumulation to financial development, depending on how capital accumulation and financial development are measured. The link between financial development and productivity is found to be statistically weak.     

Development of financial intermediation and economic growth: The Chinese experience

Using Chinese provincial data from 1985 to 1999 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels, this paper examines how the development of financial intermediation influences China's economic growth during the post-1978 reform period. Our econometric results show that China's financial intermediation development contributes to its rapid economic growth through two channels: first, the substitution of loans for state budget appropriation and second, the mobilization of household savings. Loan expansion, however, does not contribute to growth since loan distribution by financial intermediaries is inefficient. Deep financial sector reform aimed at correcting this inefficiency is desirable, and is expected to sustain China's economic development in the future.     

县域金融中介发展与县域经济增长的共振分析——基于河北省县域经济与金融现状的分析

金融发展与经济增长既相互促进又相互制约,经济水平落后,扼制金融资本的形成;金融积累的低水平又限制了经济的增长。金融发展水平的落后、低效是经济增长的最大障碍,打破这个链条的突破口应选择在金融的发展上。河北省各县域经济发展极度不平衡,这与各地金融发展的差异有关,因此如何通过金融规模、结构和效率的提高,实现资本在县域的最优化配置和经济的增长是本课题阶段性研究的重点内容。     

Financial Development,Market Deregulation and Growth: Evidence from China

In this paper, the relationship between finance and growth is analysed in the context of an endogenous growth model with government regulation and intervention. Our theoretical model suggests that financial intermediaries can affect the process of economic growth in several ways. Using the recent Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques, we test our model in a panel data set covering 29 Chinese provinces over the period of 1990–2001. Empirical results show that financial development and government deregulation in the financial sector significantly promote China's economic growth.     

Intranational Consumption Risk Sharing in South Korea: 2000–2016

This paper examines consumption risk sharing among 16 regions in South Korea over the 2000–2016 period. The empirical results show that 91.8 percent of shocks to gross regional domestic product are smoothed in South Korea. Capital markets, the tax‐transfer system and credit markets absorb 29.9, 28.9 and 33.0 percent of shocks to gross regional domestic product, respectively. Most notably, South Korea relies more on credit markets for risk sharing than capital markets, an opposite pattern to advanced countries like the USA, Canada and Australia. Furthermore, the patterns of consumption risk sharing are different before and after the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, and differences in regional industrial structure and local development can influence these patterns. This paper attempts to infer the connection between these findings and both the rapid economic growth of South Korea and the Asian and global financial crises.     

Stock Markets,Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between the development of banks and stock markets and economic growth. We make use of a Johansen-based panel cointegration methodology allowing for cross-country dependence to test the number of cointegrating vectors among these three variables for 5 developing countries. In addition, we test the direction of potential causality between financial and economic development. Our results conclude to the existence of a single cointegrating vector between financial development and growth and of causality going from financial development to economic growth. We find little evidence of reverse causation as well as bi-directional causality. We interpret this as evidence supporting the significance of financial development for economic development although banks and stock markets may have different effects depending on the level of economic development.     

我国多层次资本市场的现状与发展

2013年全国证券期货监管工作会议提出了"加快多层次资本市场建设,将扩大‘新三板’试点范围"的工作要求和目标,反映了我国资本市场和金融市场的发展方向。在我国经济转型升级、各领域深化改革的过程中,发展的动力将被不断地释放出来,资本市场必须抓住机会,通过资金的更高效运转,在改革创新中实现平稳发展,为经济的进一步持续健康发展提供有力的支持。     

Financial Markets and International Risk Sharing

Panel analysis of 21 industrial countries shows evidence for pro-cyclicality of capital gains on domestic stock markets over a medium term horizon. Thus, with cross-border ownership of portfolio equity investments, potential for hedging against domestic output fluctuations by means of the capital gains channel of foreign liabilities is found. Individual country analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity of cyclicality patterns. Evidence suggests that this cross-country variation can be explained by the level of economic development and the size of financial markets.     

Private capital flows,stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis

Empirically we investigate how three types of private capital flows could promote economic growth in recipient developed and developing countries. Our focus is on the role of stock markets as a channel through which foreign capital flows could promote growth. The findings reveal that FDI exhibits a positive impact on growth, while both foreign debt and portfolio investment have a negative impact on growth in all sample countries. However, our results indicate that stock markets might be a significant channel or leading institutional factor through which capital flows affect economic growth. The findings provide clear implications that the negative impact of private capital flows can be transformed into a positive one if the stock market development has attained a certain threshold level, regardless of whether it is in developed or developing countries.     

Corruption and firm growth: Evidence from China

Corruption is one of the most pervasive obstacles to economic and social development. However, in the existing literature it appears that corruption seems to be less harmful in some countries than in others. The most striking examples are well known as the “East Asian paradox”: countries displaying exceptional growth records despite having thriving corruption cultures. The aim of this paper is to explain the high corruption but fast economic growth puzzle in China by providing firm-level evidence of the relation between corruption and growth and investigating how financial development influences the former relationship. Our empirical results show that corruption is likely to contribute to firms' growth. We further highlight the substitution relationship between corruption and financial development on firm growth. This means that corruption appears not to be a vital constraint on firm growth if financial markets are underdeveloped. However, pervasive corruption deters firm growth where there are more developed financial markets. This implies that fast firm growth will not be observed until a later stage of China's development when financial markets are well-functioning and corruption is under control. Furthermore, the substitution relationship exists in the private and state-owned firms. Geographically, similar results can be seen in the Southeast and Central regions.     

中国企业海外退市思考:进退之间的徘徊

2010年以来,美国资本市场中国概念股遭遇退市危机。美国机构刻意做空、中国企业自身财务信息虚假和信息披露不充分、中国概念股的边缘化以及上市维系费用过高导致了此次退市危机。短期应对策略包括加强与投资者沟通、股票回购、与第三方机构合作反击以及起诉恶意诋毁的做空机构。长期而言,中国企业应该强化对美国资本市场特点的认识,制定清晰资本市场发展战略,持续提升信息披露和内部控制水平,谨慎选择中介机构,或者通过私有化选择更适合的资本市场。     

关于安徽金融业发展的思考

金融服务业主要包括银行业、证券业和保险业，现代金融服务业发展的层次和水平直接影响着经济发展的速度和效率。近年来安徽金融业发展速度较快、质量较好，但也存在不足，如对发展金融业重要性认识不够，金融业规模不大、实力不强，金融结构不合理、比例明显失调，针对中小企业和“三农”的金融服务不足，风险投资业发展滞后。文章在此基础上提出了促进安徽金融服务业发展的建议。应树立金融强省的理念，建立多层次的现代金融体系，加强资本市场建设，加快保险业的发展，加大政策支持力度，加快金融开放和创新步伐。     

The Stock Market,Monetary Policy,and Economic Development

In this article, we examine the impact of financial market development on the level of economic development. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where individuals face idiosyncratic risk. Incomplete information also provides a transaction role for money so that monetary policy can be studied. While an active banking sector promotes risk sharing, we incorporate a market for equity by allowing individuals to trade capital across generations. In this manner, each asset and financial market in our model fulfills a distinct economic function. Consistent with recent empirical work, we find that the impact of access to a stock market may be indeterminate—the economy may respond with significant gains in capital accumulation and risk sharing, or there may be relatively little impact. We also show that the effects of monetary policy vary across the level of financial development. In economies with small stock markets, increasing the amount of liquidity will cause capital accumulation to decline. By comparison, in advanced economies, capital accumulation improves.