实物期权理论在房地产价值评估中的应用

房地产开发时间长,价格变化快,传统的净现值法易低估房地产开发项目的价值,往往导致对项目的低评。本文通过引入实物期权理论,在论述其在房地产开发价值评估中应用的合理性基础上,结合房地产开发的实例讨论在不确定性条件下房地产推迟开发带来的投资机会价值,为房地产价值评估提供一种更贴近实际情况的方法。     

Valuation of a Repriceable Executive Stock Option

We introduce a path-dependent executive stock option. The exercise price might be reduced when both the firm’s stock price and a stock market index fall greatly. The repriceable executive stock option has a simple payoff that may be used for realistic executive rewards. We show the valuation formula, and compute the probability of the repriceable executive stock option expiring in-the-money. Both price and probability are important pieces of quantitative information when choosing an executive compensation package.     

并购中企业实物期权价值评估的研究

本文采用实物期权法,建立了企业并购中目标企业的价值评估模型,认为并购中目标企业的价值不仅包括企业自身的价值,还应包括由于并购的实物期权特征和协同效应产生的目标企业的附加价值。目标企业自身的价值由传统的折现现金流法计算并通过实物期权理论调整;并购附加价值由实物期权法,改进的折现现金流法和专家评分法进行计算和分配。     

Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.     

关于房地产抵押贷款的评估

目前,房地产抵押贷款评估中存在着不少问题,笔者希望就此与同行们切磋。一、接受评估委托前需要注意的问题抵押贷款评估的前提应该是银行已有同意放贷的意向。有些评估委托方在没有得到银行表示同意贷款 之前,就直接找评估机构要求进行抵押物的评估。当评估完毕,银行却不同意贷款时,就出现了不来取评估报告或要求撤消评估业务约定书这样的情况。因此,评估机构有必要在接受评估委托前提醒委托方,     

Dividend Forecast Biases in Index Option Valuation

Since the early days of option pricing theory,the assumption that the dividends on the underlying stock or index over the life of the contract are known has not been challenged. We examine the sensitivity of index option prices to the assumption of dividend uncertainty. We consider a number of issues related to the forecasting of dividends and build a dividend forecasting model that passes several rigorous tests for unbiasedness. We then generate option prices using contemporary market levels and interest rates. We find that prices generated with the actual dividends are unbiased with respect to those generated using the forecasted dividends. The magnitudes of the forecast errors, however, are sufficiently large to suggest a concern, but the percentage errors are consistently small, typically amounting to less than two percent of the option price. We conclude that the convenient assumption that the stream of future dividendsis known is probably innocuous. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems

A framework for comparing real estate valuation systems (including automated valuation models (AVMs) and current appraisal methods) is proposed. The density estimation and profit simulation (DEPS) method measures quality of a valuation system by simulating benefits to the mortgage lender who uses this method in mortgage underwriting to limit mortgage portfolio losses due to default. Related simple measures relevant to the selection of a valuation system are also discussed: skewness of the distribution of errors, correlation of valuation errors with current selling price errors, correlation of errors of the valuation system with errors of valuation systems used by competing mortgage lenders, and other measures.     

Fair Valuation of a Guaranteed Life Insurance Participating Contract Embedding a Surrender Option

In this article we deal with the problem of pricing a guaranteed life insurance participating policy, sold in the Italian market, which embeds a surrender option. This feature is an American‐style put option that enables the policyholder to sell back the contract to the insurer at the cash surrender value. Employing a recursive binomial formula patterned after the Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979) discrete option pricing model we compute, first of all, the total price of the contract, which also includes a compensation for the participation feature (“participation option,” henceforth). Then this price is split into the value of three components: the basic contract, the participation option, and the surrender option. The numerical implementation of the model allows us to catch some comparative statics properties and to tackle the problem of suitably fixing the contractual parameters in order to obtain the premium computed by insurance companies according to standard actuarial practice.     

Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

This article summarizes the authors' study of manufacturing firms in the 15 countries that made up the EU prior to its 2004 expansion. The study's main finding is that the introduction of the Euro has made companies based in one of the 12 countries that opted to adopt the Euro more inclined than firms based in one of the three non‐adopters (the U.K., Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as establishing alliances or partnerships, entering new markets, switching suppliers, or otherwise expanding within the Euro‐area. The study also shows that smaller, more profitable but financially constrained companies are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro.     

New Perspectives on Real Estate Valuation

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

Option Valuation with Information Costs: Theory and Tests

In this paper, the valuation of stock and index options is analyzed in the context of Merton's model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. It is possible to derive a partial differential equation for options in such a context. The derivation gives more understanding of the way an option's future payoff is discounted to the present. In order to estimate some of its parameters, the model is calibrated to market prices. It is tested using market prices and the authors' valuation formula. It is found that model prices are not significantly different from market prices, especially when out-of-the-money and deep-in-the-money options are considered. The model gives an explanation to the “strike bias” and the “smile effect.” Simulations of models based respectively on stochastic volatilities and gamma processes, are in accordance with the findings in this paper concerning biases in the Black and Scholes model, especially for pricing deep-in-the-money and out-of-the-money options. Even if the estimation method has its drawbacks, the costs of gathering and processing information regarding the option and its underlying asset play a central role in explaining the biases observed in the Black and Scholes model and help also the understanding of the U-shaped curve known as the smile of volatilities.     

房地产抵押评估的评估方法问题

2008年,深圳房价大幅下跌,一些业主停止向银行偿还贷款,也就是＂断供＂。2008年7月中旬,深圳英郡年华、泰华阳光海、半岛城邦、澳城等楼盘的业主已经停止向银行偿还贷款。如果深圳的房价持续下跌,＂断供＂现象很有可能在深圳蔓延。众所周知,这将使银行出现坏账!     

实物期权理论评述

期权定价理论应用到实务投资领域之后,实物期权理论研究方兴未艾,但尚未形成严密的理论体系.本文追溯了期权理论的演进,综合了期权理论的核心思想和理论基础,总结了实物期权的基本假设、应用逻辑、特征、分类和建模方法,比较了实物期权分析与其他传统工具,回顾了国内外的研究现状,并指出未来研究的关注点.     

房地产抵押评估应关注的几个问题

随着金融体制改革的深化,各商业银行为降低自身的信贷风险,大都在推行以房地产抵押为主的抵押贷款.如何在房地产抵押中合理地对房地产价值进行评估,为抵押双方提供一个可靠的价值依据,从而保证金融部门的资金安全,保障抵押人应得的经济利益,已成为价值评估行业的一个重要课题.本文拟就房地产抵押的性质、抵押的客体范围、抵押标的权属以及评估中应关注的其他问题谈一些看法.     

Real Investment Implications of Employee Stock Option Exercises

This paper examines a real cost of awarding employee stock options. Based on the observation that managers are extremely concerned about earnings-per-share dilution in equity related compensation, we predict and find that firms experiencing significant employee stock option (ESO) exercises shift resources away from real investments towards the repurchase of their own stocks. We further find weak evidence of a decline in subsequent firm performance (as measured by return on assets) for several years following the cut in discretionary investments as a result of stock option exercises, though this result is sensitive to the metric used to measure performance. Collectively, our findings indicate that ESO exercises potentially impose a real cost on the firm in terms of foregone investment opportunities.     

不动产评估中重置成本的分析

重置成本法是我国最常用的财产价值评估方法,也是评估不动产中使用较多的方法。如何合理地确定不动产的重置成本,不同的评估人员有着不太一致的说法。本文通过对有关重置成本的规范标准的对比,进行了重置成本的各种确定方法的综合分析,并提出了建议。     

Assessing the Least Squares Monte-Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation

A detailed analysis of the Least Squares Monte-Carlo (LSM) approach to American option valuation suggested in Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is performed. We compare the specification of the cross-sectional regressions with Laguerre polynomials used in Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) with alternative specifications and show that some of these have numerically better properties. Furthermore, each of these specifications leads to a trade-off between the time used to calculate a price and the precision of that price. Comparing the method-specific trade-offs reveals that a modified specification using ordinary monomials is preferred over the specification based on Laguerre polynomials. Next, we generalize the pricing problem by considering options on multiple assets and we show that the LSM method can be implemented easily for dimensions as high as ten or more. Furthermore, we show that the LSM method is computationally more efficient than existing numerical methods. In particular, when the number of assets is high, say five, Finite Difference methods are infeasible, and we show that our modified LSM method is superior to the Binomial Model.     

期权定价理论及在我国资产评估领域应用的分析

本文首先介绍了布莱克--斯科尔斯期权定价模型(B-S模型)的产生背景、前提假设与期权定价理论的发展简史;然后介绍了B-S模型的一些变型,接着又介绍了二叉树期权定价模型及其假设,以及B-S模型在股指期权、货币期权、期货期权及实物期权等领域中的应用;最后,作者结合会计准则与评估准则,强调了继续研究期权定价理论的必要性和迫切性.     

《投资性房地产评估指导意见（试行）》对评估实践工作的指导意义

《投资性房地产评估指导意见（试行）》（以下简称《指导意见》）由中国资产评估协会起草,并经行业内部广泛地讨论,在征求各方意见后,最终由中评协会计与评估专业委员会修改．于近期公布。     

浅析有租约限制的房地产评估

房地产租赁市场在整个房地产市场中占有重要地位。房地产的租约，产生了承租人权益，同时，所有权人的占有、使用、收益、处置受到了限制。所以，租约限制的房地产的价值评估与无租约限制的房地产评估有所不同，需要考虑租约的限制对房地产价格的影响。