关于积极财政政策的转型与可持续性问题的思考

近年来,中国连续实施大规模的减税降费政策,宏观税负持续下降,积极财政政策的可持续性问题引起社会各界的高度关注.积极财政政策是否具有可持续性,积极财政政策何去何从?作为宏观经济政策的任何一种财政政策都不可能长期不变地存在下去.如何理解积极财政政策?如何让财政政策具有可持续性?如何让财政政策更有效地发挥作用?文章试图对这些问题作初步的回答,并在讨论财政政策理论发展趋势的同时,展望中国未来的财政政策.     

农村金融改革:以需求为引导的供给调整

本文以安徽省为例，运用问卷调查对农户的融资需求进行实证分析。研究表明：农户金融需求具有分散性、层次性和动态性特征。针对农户的融资需求，当前农村金融改革和发展的着力点应根据农户金融需求的多样性、层次性和动态性，进行供给调整，建设各种形式的农村金融机构，实现供给与需求的动态融合。     

对基准地价系数修正法的思考

基准地价系数修正法是土地估价最常用的方法之一.但笔者认为该方法没有考虑土地使用权出让年限届满后续期的情况.为此,该文在原有基准地价系数修正公式的基础上建立了一个新的基准地价系数修正公式,并在该公式中引入概率理论.     

Corporate Finance and Sustainability: the Case of the Electric Utility Industry

The electric utility industry is in transition but needs to move even faster if the country is to meet its emissions goals. The industry has historically moved cautiously, but policies and regulatory approaches must avoid unintentionally reinforcing the status quo. Incentive‐oriented policies and redesigned regulations must balance environmental sustainability with economic sustainability. The authors draw on well‐established corporate finance principles to guide more effective policies. Shareholder‐focused utility executives must make investments conditioned by three elements: (1) the return on equity the utility can expect to make on each project; (2) the investors' required return on equity capital for each project; and (3) the size of the investment. The well‐established economic value added (EVA) model can assist policy analysis: V=(r‐k)I; where V is the shareholder value created, r is the return on equity, k is the return investors require if they are to invest in the stock, and I is the scale of the project. Any new incremental V translates into higher stock prices. All three elements of their model (i.e., risk, return, and scale) require attention by regulators and policymakers to create value for shareholders. The authors show how the right state policies could create powerful incentives for shareholder focused utility executives to support such transitions.     

Financial Flexibility and Opportunity Capture: Bridging the Gap Between Finance and Strategy

Logically, the practice of corporate finance and corporate strategy should be closely coordinated, but in reality there remains a massive gap between the two. This can lead strategically oriented firms to de‐emphasize or even discard NPV. Neither financial theory nor competitive strategy has been very open to the economic value of investment opportunity capture. Strategy must recognize that financial flexibility provides powerful advantages and financial theory must evaluate entire strategic programs rather than discrete, stand‐alone projects. Necessarily, the financial discussion of cost of capital and capital structure has to change. The authors offer two specific concepts to bridge the Gap between Finance and Strategy: 1) Reserve Financial Capacity is the annual sum of Free Cash Flow, Financing Flexibility and Cash Reserves over the period envisioned for strategy execution. Individual projects must belong to strategic programs in the sense that they either: 1) keep the base business running; 2) preserve an existing competitive position; or 3) form part of a program to enhance advantage or fashion a strategic breakout. 2) Strategically Sustainable Cost of Capital is the true, blended cost of capital required to complete an entire capital program. These concepts provide financial rigor to firms with well‐defined strategies and allow managements to wield Financial Flexibility as a strategic weapon, creating options on unique buying opportunities, such as at the bottom of industry cycles.     

中国农村金融深化发展途径分析

近些年来,农村金融改革和发展进展顺利,初步形成了多层次、广覆盖的农村金融体系。然而在一些方面仍然面临不少问题,需要深化改革,加快发展。本文对中国农村金融存在的"五少一多"现象及其原因进行了深入研究,在此基础上探讨了中国农村金融深化发展的路径。     

The Value of a Finance Journal Publication

The empirical analysis examines the salary and publication records of 311 finance professors at public research universities to calculate the worth of a top finance journal article. Within rank, salary regressions provide measures of the direct returns of a journal publication, while probit models consider the indirect returns that result from promotion. Ultimately, the analysis uses a reduced form salary equation to measure both the direct and indirect effects of publishing a journal article. Depending on professorial rank, the present value of the first top finance journal article is between $19,493 and $33,754, with the additional result of large returns to subsequent publications.     

External Shocks and the Demand for Adjustment Finance

When a country experiences a long-term adverse external shock,resulting in a balance of payments deficit unsustainable inthe medium term, how quickly should it adjust? Because timeis required for movement of productive factors and consumptionpatterns, the short-term effect of the shock will be a largeincrease in the value of foreign exchange. It then pays to borrowabroad during the first years of the transition against thoseyears when full resource and demand reallocations have takenplace. To allow this adjustment path, the market exchange rateshould follow the shadow exchange rate. This article uses asimple traded/nontraded sector model with lagged responses andoptimal borrowing theory to derive a quantitative relationshipbetween the magnitude of the shock and the optimal amount ofborrowing, the speed at which the original shortfall of foreigncurrency should be closed, and the required currency depreciationduring the borrowing and repayment period.     

公允价值的决策有用性:从经济分析视角的思考

公允价值自提出之日起就备受各国准则制定机构的青睐和重视,但在这次国际金融危机中却备受责难,因此,更加值得学术界从不同的角度对公允价值计量属性进行全面、深入的考察和分析。本文从经济分析的视角,对公允价值的决策有用性进行了探讨,从信息观与计量观两个角度分析了公允价值计量、资产负债表公允价值估值和公允价值利润的决策有用性问题,研究结论支持公允价值的决策有用性,并认为我国在新会计准则体系中全面、适当、谨慎地引入公允价值,既具有理论支持,也能够体现会计信息的决策有用性的目标。     

Corporate Social Responsibility: The Link Between Sustainability Disclosure and Sustainability Performance

This paper explores the relation between sustainability performance and sustainability disclosure within the Australian extractive industries. The study utilizes Ullmann's (1985) stakeholder framework, which depicts sustainability disclosure and performance as two components of management strategy for dealing with stakeholder demands. Consistent with this framework, we predict a positive performance–disclosure relation. Extending prior research that has utilized problematic environmental performance indices such as CEP indices or toxic emissions levels, we develop a sustainability performance index based on the International Finance Corporation's Measuring Sustainability Framework (2001). Using data from 339 mining and energy firms listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2006, we find that corporate sustainability performance is strongly associated with disclosure as expected. Sustainability disclosure is also greater for firms with a proactive communication strategy as manifested through press release activity. Finally, asset age and firm size are both positively associated with sustainability, consistent with predictions from the stakeholder framework.     

行为金融学与投资者行为的政策调控

政府和投资者一样都在寻求一种能够获取利润并且控制风险的办法,实现“共赢”.“共赢”是股票市场调控的想理结果,达到这一目标必须了解投资者的投资行为对于股票市场的影响,分析总结投资者的行为模式,并且在分析过程中,采取适当的措施对投资者进行引导.     

Firm Value and the Quality of Sustainability Reporting in Australia

This paper investigates the relationship between firm value and the quality of Australian listed corporations’ sustainability reporting. We examine whether firms that make higher‐quality sustainability disclosures exhibit systematically higher equity prices, through either (or both) cost of capital or expected future performance effects. Using proprietary data obtained from a specialist responsible investment research firm, we document a significant negative association between quality sustainability reporting and the cost of equity capital for ASX 200 firms from 2003–2005, and a significant positive association between expected future performance and the quality of sustainability reporting. We also test for industry‐specific associations and find that our main results are driven heavily by the reporting behaviour of, and market response to, firms in environmentally sensitive industries.     

我国农村民间金融规范发展的路径选择

农村民间金融在我国捉村有其存在的客观必然性,农村民间金融的主要运行形式有：农村信用社、农村合作基金、合会、民间借贷、私人钱庄、民间集资和小额信贷等。目前,我国农村民间金融发展中存在不少问题,比如民间借贷的利率失控,农村民间金融潜伏着金融风险,容易产生经济纠纷,给国家宏观调控带来困难以及还难以得到法律的保护等。因此,规范和发展农村民间金融,我们要明确民间金融的地位,改善农村金融领域中二元结构的紧张与对立：将农村信用合作社改造成真正的民间金融：规范农村民问金融,将民间金融纳入金融监管范围;继续支持农村小额信贷机构发展;建立农村民间金触机构存款保险制度等等。     

The Dynamic Speed of Cash-Holding Adjustment in a Transition Economy: A New Approach and Evidence

Using a new approach, we estimate the speed of cash-holding adjustment for a typical transitional economy by using Chinese listed firms’ samples over 1999–2011. First, we use model-averaging techniques to identify reliably important cash-holding determinants. Second, we conduct Monte Carlo simulation using the real finance data to evaluate appropriateness of the empirical estimator from a variety of dynamic estimation methods and suggest an optimized system of generalized method of moments (OPT-GMM) as an appropriate econometric approach for speed estimation. Finally, we get the speed of 46 percent, which is significantly lower than the contemporary speed in the United Kingdom and the United States.     

数字金融、融资约束与企业价值

数字金融是在传统金融的基础上,利用数字技术重塑的新兴金融业态,对于支持实体企业的经营发展具有重要意义。本文在分析数字金融与企业价值关系的理论基础上,选取2011－2018年中国沪深A股上市公司的数据,实证检验数字金融发展对企业价值的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：数字金融发展有助于提升企业价值;数字金融发展能有效缓解企业的融资约束,促进企业价值增加。因此,在数字化时代下,应积极推动数字金融高质量发展,缓解企业融资约束,实现企业价值增值。     

金融中介、非正规金融与现金价值

金融体制改革相对滞后,影响了商业银行利用金融资源的效率,致使投放到企业中的资金使用效率低下。除正式的金融制度安排外,非正规金融形式也是重要的融资形式。以我国上市公司1999-2005年的数据为样本,本文研究了以银行贷款为主的金融资源和以商业信用为主的非正规金融资源之间的资金效率问题。结果发现,对于难以获得银行贷款的企业,的确通过商业信用来缓解融资约束,两种融资渠道存在替代性关系;以商业银行为主的金融中介的资金效率低于以商业信用为代表的非正规金融的资金效率。     

Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment

While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010.     

Corporate Policy and Market Value: A q-Theory Approach

In this paper, we show that Tobin's q has a significant predictive power in explaining valuation consequences of major corporate policy variables. Our empirical results reveal that, depending upon whether a firm is overinvesting or underinvesting, financial markets respond quite differently to its capital structure, dividend payout, financial slack, and R & D decisions. Overall, the empirical results suggest that both high debt ratios and greater payouts are favorably viewed by the market when firms are overinvesting. For firms with growth opportunities, however, large debt is unfavorably viewed by the market. In addition, financial slack and R & D expenditures are favorably received by the market for growth firms but not for overinvesting firms.