Predicting dividends in log-linear present value models

In a present value model, high dividend yields imply that either future dividend growth must be low, or future discount rates must be high, or both. While previous studies have largely focused on the predictability of future returns from dividend yields, dividend yields also strongly predict future dividends, and the predictability of dividend growth is much stronger than the predictability of returns at a one-year horizon. Inference from annual regressions over the 1927–2000 sample imputes over 85% of the variation of log dividend yields to variations in dividend growth. Point estimates of the predictability of both dividend growth and discount rates are stronger when the 1990–2000 decade is omitted.     

Predicting dividends in log-linear present value models

In a present value model, high dividend yields imply that either future dividend growth must be low, or future discount rates must be high, or both. While previous studies have largely focused on the predictability of future returns from dividend yields, dividend yields also strongly predict future dividends, and the predictability of dividend growth is much stronger than the predictability of returns at a one-year horizon. Inference from annual regressions over the 1927–2000 sample imputes over 85% of the variation of log dividend yields to variations in dividend growth. Point estimates of the predictability of both dividend growth and discount rates are stronger when the 1990–2000 decade is omitted.     

Managerial entrenchment and the value of dividends

This study examines the effects of takeover defenses on the value implication of dividends. Using the framework of Fama and French in J Finance 53(3): 819–843 (1998), the paper shows that dividends paid by managers with strong managerial power resulting from takeover protection measures are more valued in the stock market. The results are consistent with the hypothesis of the agency costs of free cash flow built on by Jensen in Am Econ Rev 76(2): 323–329 (1986) in the sense that dividends are important to determine firm value by reducing the free cash flow that would otherwise be deployed for private benefits by entrenched managers. This paper also examines whether the incremental value effect of dividends in entrenched firms is attributable to a numerator effect (changes in the future cash flow) or a denominator effect (changes in the discount rate). The empirical results show that the dividend payout of such firms is more positively related to future performance and more negatively related to information risk, which supports both numerator and denominator effects.     

Tax clientele effects of dividends under intertemporal consumption choices

Corporate investors putatively seek high dividends because marginal tax rates on dividends are lower than those on capital gains. However, a lower tax “rate” does not necessarily mean that a higher dividend is desirable. Taking the intertemporal consumption choices given, corporate investors are expected to prefer “time-preference-fitted dividends” if tax rates remain constant over time; otherwise they confront a larger “amount” of tax obligation. If dividend shortfalls exist, they must realize capital gains and thereby suffer unfavorable tax treatment, whereas excessive payments cause intertemporal double taxation on reinvested dividends. Tax-saving problems should be linked with intertemporal consumption choices.     

The valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends

This study presents evidence which indicates that stock prices, on average, react positively to stock dividend and stock split announcements that are uncontaminated by other contemporaneous firm-specific announcements. In addition, it documents significantly positive excess returns on and around the ex-dates of stock dividends and splits. Both announcement and ex-date returns were found to be larger for stock dividends than for stock splits. While the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends, the paper offers several signalling based explanations for them. These are consistent with a cross-sectional analysis of the announcement period returns.     

Determinants of leader behavior in an audit environment

Although leader or supervisory behaviors are generally thought to have a significant effect on subordinate performance, motivation and job satisfaction, the variables which affect an auditor's approach to supervision have not been investigated. In this paper we examine two categories of variables (situational variables and leader-person variables) which determine an auditor's use of key leader behavior. The determinants of leader behavior are examined in the context of an audit team composed of an accountant in charge (leader) and one or more staff assistants (subordinate). The results of our empirical tests provide some evidence that leader behavior is related to three variables: (1) the match between the accountant in charge's perception of the complexity of the task assigned to the staff assistant and the staff assistant's job experience, (2) the staff assistant's intolerance of ambiguity and (3) the accountant in charge's personality dominance.     

大型机房环境动力集中监控系统的设计思路

为了保障大型信息机房内各类计算机、存储、网络通信等设备的正常和安全不间断运行，机房配套环境设备不断增多，其重要性随着数据集中工程和电子银行业务的快速发展而日益凸显。大集中模式下的数据中心机房的环境设备包括高低压供配电系统、不间断电源（UPS、电池）系统、空调制冷系统以及消防、安防、门禁、监控等系统，这些系统必须时刻为信息系统提供正常的运行环境。一旦在此环节发生故障，会造成影响范围广、恢复时间长的重大事故，甚至会带来巨大的人身伤害和设备资产损失。因此，应用可靠的机房环境动力集中监控系统对机房环境动力设备进行自动监视和有机管理，以保障机房及环境动力系统的可靠运行是极其必要的。     

上市公司送股的会计性质及处理

送股的会计处理是会计领域的一个颇具争议的问题.从会计理论方面来看,缺乏内在的逻辑一致性是我国相关会计处理的致命缺陷.本文拟分析我国在送股的会计处理方面逻辑上的矛盾及其成因,并试图做出合理而可行的解释和解决办法.     

A note on an analytical valuation formula for unprotected American call options on stocks with known dividends

This note provides simple analytic formulas for the value of an American call option on a stock with known dividends.     

A comparative analysis of perception of dividends by financial managers

This paper is a report about the perception of dividends by Chief financial officers (CFOs). The research encompasses five countries, on three continents, and covers three types of economies. Our cross-sectional study is concerned with both inter- and intra-societal differences that may or may not exist regarding the perception of dividends by those who are in charge of making such decisions in the firm. Using a survey instrument, we find that both similarities and dissimilarities exist inter- and intra-culturally. Perhaps the most important conclusion we reach is that dividend research must take a different track than it has been following so far.     

Accounting benefits and satisfaction in an ERP environment

Over the past decade, organizations all over the world have adopted enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. There has been little research at a global scale regarding the accounting benefits of adopting enterprise systems. Moreover, there are virtually no studies that examine in detail the relation between accounting benefits and ERP user satisfaction. Sutton (2006) addressed the need for empirical research on the impact of ERP in terms of accounting advantages and disadvantages. The principal aim of our study was to investigate the accounting benefits that the adoption of an ERP system by companies may entail in relation to ERP user satisfaction. This study explored the impact that the ERP system has had on accounting information and practice. This study also examined whether or not there are differences between accountants and IT professionals concerning how each group assesses ERP accounting benefits and ERP user satisfaction. The participants of this study comprised 175 accountants and 96 IT professionals from 193 companies in Greece. The empirical evidence confirms a number of accounting benefits derived from ERP systems particularly for accounting process. No statistically significant differences were found between the perceptions of accountants and IT professionals concerning ERP accounting benefits. Furthermore, this research identifies factors related to accounting benefits and ERP cost which affect the level of ERP user satisfaction. The implications of these results for practice and research are explored. The findings of this study will be of value to any companies considering the inclusion of their accounting techniques and operations in an ERP system. Furthermore, the results of this study will provide stimulus for consequent research in the field in order to further examine and account for the accounting benefits that can occur from ERP system implementation as well as the effect of those benefits on ERP user satisfaction.     

Impact of financial and multinational operations on manager perceptions of dividends

We survey managers of firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange about their views on dividends. We find the perceptions of factors that influence dividend policy differ between managers of financial and non-financial firms. Industry classification also affects how managers view statements about the dividend pattern, dividend setting process, dividend policy and firm value, residual dividend theory, and explanations for paying dividends. However, we find weak, if any, multinational operations effect on manager perception of dividends. We conclude that researchers investigating dividends should partition the data by industry type and perhaps other firm characteristics to better understand the dividend puzzle.     

The value of dividends: Evidence from cum-dividend trading in the ex-dividend period

What is the market value of a dollar of fully franked dividends? We address this question by exploiting a new phenomenon in the Australian capital market—the trading of shares cum-dividend during the ex-dividend period. This allows a relatively clean measurement of the combined value of dividends and the associated tax effects net of transactions costs. Consistent with the theoretical model that we develop, the evidence from this sample is that one dollar of fully franked dividends, after tax effects and transaction costs, is worth significantly more than one dollar. We also show that, in contrast to our measure, the traditional measure of the ex-dividend price drop-off, based on close to close prices, has a lower average value and exhibits substantially more cross sectional variation.     

The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors

A dividend-ratio model is introduced here that makes the logof the dividend-price ratio on a stock linear in optimally forecastfuture one-period real discount rates and future one-periodgrowth rates of real dividends. If ex post discount rates areobservable, this model can be tested by using vector autoregressivemethods. Four versions of the linearized model, differing inthe measure of discount rates, are tested for U.S. time series1871-1986 and 1926-1986: a version that imposes constant realdiscount rates, and versions that measure discount rates fromreal interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, andreturn variance data. The results yield a metric to judge therelative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discountrates, and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-priceratio.     

Does the investment interest limitation explain the existence of dividends?

Miller and Scholes have shown that under certain conditions the Federal Income Tax taxes dividend income at a rate no higher than the rate on capital gains. Tabulations of actual 1977 tax returns show that the special circumstances under which this can occur apply to recipients of two and one half percent of dividend income and that no dominant role may therefore be ascribed to their hypothesis in the determination of corporate dividend policy.     

Information effects of dividends: Evidence from the Hong Kong market

The literature has suggested that earnings and earnings forecasts provide stronger signals than dividends about future performance of a firm. We test the information effects of simultaneous announcement of earnings and dividends in the Hong Kong market, distinguished by three interesting features (concentrated family-shareholdings, low corporate transparency, and no tax on dividends). Our results show significant share price reactions to unexpected earnings and dividend changes, but dividends appear to play a dominant role over earnings in pricing, a result contrary to findings in the literature. The signaling hypothesis works primarily for firms with earning increases, while the maturity hypothesis works mainly for firms with earnings declines.

新兴产业主题基金：受益政策红利

作为经济发展方向的基本纲领,＂十二五＂规划无疑具有重要的意义。对于基金而言,＂十二五＂除了政策意义,更重要的是引领着其未来的投资方向。     

Closed-form valuation of American call options on stocks paying multiple dividends

An American call option on a stock paying a single known dividend can be valued using the Roll–Geske–Whaley formula. This paper extends the Roll–Geske–Whaley model to the n dividends case by using the generalized n-fold compound option model. In this way this paper offers a closed-form solution for American options on stocks paying n known discrete dividends. Moreover, the model also offers the critical values of the early exercise boundaries at each ex-dividend date instant, making it easy to define an early exercise strategy. Numerical examples are included to illustrate this approach.     

中国有一支致力于环境投资的国际基金

我们不能回避一个事实,当上世纪八、九十年代中国市场掀起制造风的时候,也制造了对环境的破坏.在那个时候,国人对环境保护几乎没有任何认识.当人们沉浸在对财富追求的幸福冲动时,大自然对人类的报复已悄然开始.就在2000年,一位在中国长大,在美国硅谷工作了12年的年轻人,清醒地看到这世界工厂背后潜藏的环境危机,同时也敏锐地发现了环境保护产业的巨大市场空间.