关于技术前瞻研究的评介

作为当前创新体系管理的重要手段 ,技术前瞻研究所预测的范围已远远超出技术本身的发展趋势 ,它还包括技术发展的经济与社会背景和市场效应。对技术发展趋势的预测能力已成为国家或企业竞争优势的重大因素。作者具体评介了技术前瞻研究的发展历程、背景、任务、作用与预测方法 ,并阐述它对推动我国科技发展的意义     

Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases

Short term forecasting was applied to 20 emerging technologies under the “Machine and Materials” category based on the Vision 2023 foresight study previously conducted for Turkey. This scientometric approach uses the most suitable keywords linked to the technology in question and determines the number of publications and patents in those fields for a given year. Database analysis of publications and patents in the previous 11 years indicates that while the majority of the top 20 technologies identified by the experts are indeed emerging (i.e. the number of research and/or patenting in these technologies is increasing), some of them have not actually attracted too much interest in the science and technology (S&T) community. Forecasts based on S-curves indicate steady growth in some of the selected technologies. There is a high correlation between the number of scientific publications and patents in most of the technologies investigated. The method is proposed as a simple and efficient tool to link national foresight efforts to international S&T activities and to obtain quantitative information for prioritized technologies that could be used for technology management and decision making for research funding and technology investment.     

Emergent foresight processes: industrial activities in wireless communications

Technology foresight has received growing attention among those involved in the shaping and implementation of science and technology (S&T) policies. However, although evaluative analyses of foresight exercises have supplied evidence on acclaimed benefits—such as the generation of future-oriented knowledge and strengthening of collaborative networks—they also point to challenges in translating foresight results into actions within research and technology development (RTD) organizations. In this article, we address these challenges by considering the work of the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), which has sought to promote the conception, development, and diffusion of wireless communication technologies. Specifically, by contrasting this work with well-known government-initiated foresight exercises, we typify so-called explicit, emergent, and embedded foresight activities and explore their interrelationships. Our comparative analysis points to conditions under which policy interventions may not be needed for the emergence of foresight activities that exert a major influence on RTD agendas. It also suggests several context-dependent roles for public policy, among which government-driven foresight exercises and the catalysis of more narrowly focused activities are but two examples.     

Assessment of China's and India's science and technology literature — introduction, background, and approach

Science and technology (S&T) allows (1) automation to replace human labor, (2) enhanced human labor capabilities, (3) quicker and cheaper production of goods, and (4) more complex products and processes. In order to maintain competitive advantages, it is critical for any country to understand what other countries are producing in S&T, and what intrinsic S&T capabilities are being developed.India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. These two dynamic economies are advancing rapidly in S&T, and it is prudent to assess the quantity and quality of their research output as well as to examine trends in their S&T capabilities.This paper, the first of four in a Special Section on China's and India's S&T, introduces the remaining three papers. Specifically, this paper describes the motivation for the studies, the background for understanding national S&T assessments, an overview of text mining, a brief picture of the Indian and Chinese S&T establishments, and a summary of the analytical techniques used in the assessments.     

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used—from industrial to information and molecular—make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.     

Environmental technology foresight: New horizons for technology management

Decision-making in corporate technology management and government technology policy is increasingly influenced by the environmental impact of technologies. Technology foresight (TF) and environmental impact assessment (EIA) are analyzed with regard to the roles they can play in developing long-term strategies and policies for reducing the environmental impact of technologies. The methods for TF and EIA are quite well developed, but remain within a tradition of rational decision-making. However, recent studies of tecnology management and innovation have shown that technology development can be explained only to a certain degree by rational decision-making. EIA is usually presented as an objective and scientific method, based on normative underpinnings that usually remain hidden. Thus, systematic information-providing instruments such as TF and EIA can play only a limited role. We propose a procedure for environmental technology foresight. The case is made that environmental technology management will be most helped by a 'constructive' approach in order to stimulate incorporation of long-term environmental objectives.     

Forecasting MBT technologies using DEA and LR

First, this paper explores Main Battle Tank (MBT) data set with different statistical methods in order to decide the most appropriate variables as reliable yardsticks in applying technology forecasting (TF) using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) technique. It then applies TF using DEA method to forecast MBT technologies. This article attempts to predict technology development year of MBT commercialised from 1941 to 1994. This article presents the processes of TFDEA in detail and identifies some issues to search for appropriate input and output variables to forecast MBT technologies. The purpose of this study is to address some issues and identify an appropriate data to predict future trends of MBT technologies when using TFDEA and multiple linear regression tools. Finally, the study provides an understanding of the technological advances being sought in MBT technologies and information for use in making decisions regarding development strategy.     

A systematic approach for identifying technology opportunities: Keyword-based morphology analysis

Morphology analysis (MA), a representative qualitative technique in technology forecasting (TF), has been utilized to identify technology opportunities. However, conventional MA is subject to limitations in that there is no scientific or systematic way in establishing the morphology of technology, and it is difficult to prioritize the alternatives. As a remedy, we propose a keyword-based MA that is supported by a systematic procedure and quantitative data for concluding the morphology of technology. To this end, a technology dictionary is developed by factor analysis for keywords that are extracted from patent documents through text mining. Then, the morphology of patents is identified based on the technology dictionary. By listing the occupied configurations of collected patents, the unoccupied territory of configurations are suggested as technology opportunities. Moreover, the priority of alternatives is concluded, and similar and substitutive technologies can be analyzed for the purpose of extending morphology structure. Technical and managerial strategy for in-house R&D or cross-licensing can also be supported by examining the morphology portfolio of technologies. A thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) case is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of this brand-new MA.     

促进企业技术进步的机构与政策研究

在对铸造、纺织、机床、汽车零件、聚合物、软件6个产业的企业和科技机构调查的基础上，就科技机构和政府政策在促进企业的技术进步中的作用进行了国际比较分析。中国、日本、韩国、印度、墨西哥、中国台湾省的调查都显示，科技机构和政府的财政、税收、信贷、培训等政策措施在促进企业的技术发展中起着十分重要的作用。但在不同的国家和地区，特点和效果有所不同。机构的改革和政策的调整是较为普遍的趋势。     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

基于K-means与技术生命周期的技术预见方法研究——以水体净化技术为例

预见水体净化技术发展趋势有助于实现“美丽中国”建设目标。已有技术预见方法缺乏定量客观依据,相关评判指标也不够全面。从Innography数据库检索2008-2019年发布的3552个污水处理技术专利,运用多维标度分析和K均值聚类法,基于专利静态指标分析专利技术发展潜力,采用技术生命周期分析法从动态视角判断每类技术的发展前景。研究发现：①污水与污染物双重回收可持续性技术在多个静态评价指标方面均优于其它技术,且处于从引入期到发展期的过渡阶段,具有较大的发展空间;②以去除特定污染物为目标的功能单一技术已被淘汰,市场开始应用污水处理原理不同的多种技术联合处理方式。据此,提出企业应选择污染物回收率高、二次污染物排放少、整体“净效益”为正的污水处理技术,并采取新旧技术联合处理方式降低企业采用新技术的转换成本。     

Archetypes of governance for science and technology labs

While policy-makers understand the vast benefits of publicly funded and not-for-profit research, governance practitioners have the difficult task of defining processes that can best foster high performance for science and technology (S&T) labs not primarily driven by profits. This qualitative study develops a new taxonomy based on two dimensions, the nature of the funding relationship between the parent organisation and the S&T lab and the degree of interdependence between the lab's research units. We discuss the dynamics uncovered for each of the four archetypes with illustrative cases and argue that high-performance governance of S&T labs requires an internal coherence linking the processes of planning, funding and performance evaluation.     

Forecasting the S&P 500 index volatility

This study introduces a new pre-differencing transformation for the AR1MA model for forecasting S&P 500 index volatility. The out of sample forecasting performance of the ARIMA model using the new pre-differencing transformation is compared with the out of sample forecasting performance of the mean reversion model and the GARCH model. The ARIMA model using the new pre-differencing transformation introduced in this study is found to be superior to both the mean reversion model and the GARCH model in forecasting monthly S&P 500 index volatility for the forecast comparison periods used in this study.     

第四代技术展望

随着技术与经济全球化，技术预测的合理性，有效性和可操作性等问题再一次提到议事日程上来。本文提出了一种在广义技术创新框架之下，社会，经济，环境的多层次上，硬技术与软技术并重的第四代技术展望理论。     

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies,food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets.     

Cross-national and cross-industrial comparison of two strategy approaches for global industrial evolution

This research focuses on analyzing the two prime science and technology (S&T) strategy approaches for industrial evolution based on the concept of S&T gap, namely, the optimist and pragmatist approaches. Particularly, the cases of global IC, pharmaceutical, and computer industries, are used to make cross-national and cross-industrial comparison of these two approaches. The optimist approach is developed based on the product life cycle theory which envisions technology transcending everyday limitations. With this perspective, market demand is the most critical factor in selecting the S&T strategy approaches. The pragmatist approach is formed based on the new trade theory which recognizes the power of science and technology but seeks to fit it into structures that already exist, and government must manage resources pouring into science and technology. Case studies of global IC, pharmaceutical, and computer industries during the 2nd half of the 20th century are used as research targets to reflect policy impacts on the technological evolution. The results of this study reveal that, strategy approaches have to be adapted and turned to the specific stage, technology level, and market segment that have been selected for intervention. This result of comparison also offers the criteria of strategy selection for developing different industry based on distinct national base.     

技术预见活动所体现的科学发展观——以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例

简述了技术预见活动在全球的开展情况,以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例,介绍了技术预见活动的步骤和使用方法,分析了技术预见活动过程所体现的科学发展观。     

Toward closer links between science and society in India: A futuristic formula

This work presents a futuristic scenario of science and technology in India in relation to development and social change. Organizational, financial, developmental, etc. trends in science and technology have been identified as consequences of history, culture and national policy alternatives conceived in the past and perceived for the future. The present course of action is considered unlikely to bridge the existing gap between science and society in India. The findings are relevant for S&T policy and planning in the developing countries.