The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

Shaping user-side innovation through standardisation: The example of ICT

This paper looks at the relations that exist between standardisation and user-side innovation in ICT. Some necessary background information are followed by a discussion of how standards and user-side innovations are shaped. A mutual influence between standardisation and innovation can be identified. To avoid the emergence of standards that are beneficial only for a handful of users a co-ordinated representation of users in standards setting is suggested.     

Intertemporal market division:: A case of alternating monopoly

In this paper, we report on an equilibrium with market dominance that exists in a simple two-firm model that features neither entry barriers nor sophisticated punishment strategies. This equilibrium induces an intertemporal market division in which the two firms alternate as monopolists - despite the fact that the model also sustains a Cournot duopoly. Even when initially both firms are active in the market, the alternating monopoly reveals itself rather quickly. Moreover, it Pareto dominates the Cournot equilibrium - as it is close to the cartel outcome. Several examples of what well may be such alternating monopolies are presented.     

Benefit entitlement and unemployment duration: The role of policy endogeneity

The potential duration of benefits is generally viewed as an important determinant of unemployment duration. This paper evaluates a unique policy change that prolonged entitlement to regular unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to a maximum of 209 weeks for elderly individuals in certain regions of Austria. In the evaluation, we explicitly account for the fact that the program was an endogenous policy response to deteriorating labor market conditions for older workers in certain regions and sectors. The main results are: (i) REBP reduced the transition rate to jobs by 17%; (ii) accounting for endogenous policy adoption is important and quantitatively significant.     

Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe : A learning curve approach

Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO₂ emissions over the system life cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.     

A socio-technical framework for cyber-infrastructure design : Implication for Korean cyber-infrastructure vision

This study presents a practical case application of socio-technical framework to assess and predict the development of cyber-infrastructure (CI) in Korea. Applying a socio-technical system approach to CI, this paper attempts to gain a clear understanding of how CI will evolve and stabilize in the cyber environment. It investigates the complex interaction between social and technical aspects of CI by highlighting the co-evolving nature, diversity, and interface which constitute the next generation network environment. It describes the challenges in developing, deploying, and maintaining the diverse components of CI and provides a snapshot of Korea's current approach to supporting members in meeting this challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide insight into these challenges and opportunities by offering a socio-technical analysis of CI development involving the social dynamics and organizational, policy, management, and administration decisions inherent in the design and development of CI.     

A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development

New materials have been recognized as key drivers for corporate profitability and growth in today's fast changing environments. To predict correctly the development of the new materials becomes a critical issue. However, little has been done in discussing the selection of technology forecasting methods for the new materials development. Accordingly, this study adopted the fuzzy AHP method to obtain professional's opinions on this issue. The efforts result in seven evaluation criteria with one, the “data validity” having the highest weight, followed by “method adaptability” and “technology predictability”. Delphi method and case study method are the two most applicable technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development.     

The coevolution of firms and their knowledge environment: Insights from the pharmaceutical industry

What are the most effective learning strategies for firms given the characteristics of their knowledge environment? This paper addresses this question by documenting the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussing the related changes in the learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms. Both the historical analysis and a review of the empirical research on organizational learning and knowledge transfer reveal a strong emphasis of firms on external learning through interfirm collaborations and sourcing of external knowledge. This learning strategy seems to be driven by the speed, uncertainty, and dispersion of knowledge developments in the industry. Studying the connections between the knowledge environment and the effectiveness of organizational learning processes is important to understand organizational change and adaptation, and is an area of research that deserves further attention.     

Predator or prey?: Parasitic enterprises in economic development

In many developing and transition economies Mafia-like activities are rampant. Extortion and other forms of predation lower profitability in private businesses and distort investment incentives. Incorporated in a model of industrialization, bimodal club convergence may result. Economies may get stuck in a Predators’ Club characterized by a vicious cycle of poverty and predation. Societies with a low flow of new entrepreneurs are especially vulnerable to predation and never get out of this club. Poor societies with a high flow of new entrepreneurs, however, may grow out of the trap and join the rich Producers’ Club.     

Environmental levies and distortionary taxation:: Pigou, taxation and pollution

I note an important distinction between the optimal price of environmental quality in a second-best world and the optimal level of environmental quality. Using an analytical general equilibrium model, I show that for reasonable parameter values, an increase in tax distortions (arising from an increase in required tax revenues) leads to a fall in the optimal Pigouvian tax rate even while environmental quality improves. In general, knowledge of the direction of changes in optimal environmental tax rates due to changes in the economy is not sufficient for understanding the impact on environmental quality.     

Housing mobility programs and economic self-sufficiency: Evidence from a randomized experiment

This paper examines the effects of a randomized housing-voucher program on individual economic outcomes. Public housing residents who are offered relocation counseling together with housing vouchers that can only be redeemed in low-poverty areas experience a reduction in welfare receipt of between 11% and 16% compared to controls. These effects are not accompanied by changes in earnings or employment rates as measured by unemployment insurance records. Offering families unrestricted housing vouchers without additional counseling appears to have little effect on economic outcomes.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

Embedded industrial production systems: Lessons from waste management in zinc production

To meet the sustainability challenge private companies must implement corporate strategies and adopt novel technologies. The technical and social embeddedness of industrial production systems, however, complicates these systems' transition towards sustainability. In the paper, mechanisms and conditions are reported for the development and implementation of waste management options in embedded industrial production systems. The focus is on the Dutch zinc production industry, which had to deal with a major waste problem; the generation of jarosite. The industry's options were to increase the jarosite waste storage capacity, to develop a jarosite treatment process or to switch to a zinc-ore of low-iron content whereby no jarosite waste would be generated anymore. Required conditions appeared to be a combination of technological capability and technical embedding and favourable economics. Case study research, however, revealed that adequate stakeholder management is crucial to address social pressure exerted and to obtain external acceptance for any transition strategy. Whilst appropriate, internal technological capabilities are important, effective interactions with and enrolment of various firm-external actors are crucial. In the case of zinc, access to the heterogeneous external actor network was critical for the development of the jarosite treatment solution direction. In conclusion, both the technical, organizational and social embedding of new technologies are crucial for successful implementation.     

ESTEEM: Managing societal acceptance in new energy projects : A toolbox method for project managers

There is now a large literature dealing with the policy question of public participation in technical choice and technology assessment (TA). Files such as the mad cow crisis, genetically modified food, and the emerging nanotechnologies have been edified into a public problem, and have given place to a number of experiments and reviews about participatory arrangements. Much less attention has been devoted so far to the application of the TA framework to more local and limited projects-not yet and maybe never reaching the public problem status-and the management of their societal dimensions. Among them, new energy technology represents a very interesting field for investigation: many of the new energy enjoy a global positive public image whereas the local implementation of their implantation often raises societal questions and oppositions. This paper describes an original experiment conducted in the field of new energy technologies during which a participatory technology assessment inspired approach was applied to a number of individual and local projects. A framework methodology called ESTEEM was developed to facilitate such participatory process to take place, and it was tested and evaluated in 5 projects located in 5 different countries over Europe. A detailed discussion of the ESTEEM method and its application to one case study, a Carbon Sequestration project in The Netherlands, is provided. We show that a major question in the application in such participatory framework is to establish a reflective practice of project management based on situated and constructive interactions between project promoters and project stakeholders.     

Generic innovation dynamics across the industrial technology life cycle: Platform equation modeling of invention and innovation activity

We describe here a generic approach to innovation dynamics based on an integrated framework for inventions and innovations applied via a platform equation and model across the industrial technology life cycle. We test the model for metals and other materials, and demonstrate that this model correctly describes the production activity for several materials and energy conversion technologies.Innovation activity patterns are shown for several oxides, metals, oil and wind energy and its derivatives. The metals Cu, Al, W, Mo and Pb are particularly studied for the amount produced over time. The total activity for the metals encompasses both the invention and innovation stage for a particular metal. Four major stages and two sub stages are identified for the discovery (invention) and subsequent growth regimes (i.e. the innovation stage). The pattern equation appears to clearly capture all these stages for the metals studied — work is ongoing for similar analyses of energy and other materials. Although the metals studied existed over differing periods (e.g. copper greater than 200 years whereas aluminum, just over 100 years), one single pattern equation appears to capture all the major trends. The use of the model is also shown for productivity analysis, especially for the condition of radical innovation (very rapid growth). For sustained radical innovation, namely, when the output of the produced material per unit time, keeps on increasing with time, there are various factors which may influence growth. For the conditions where thermal activation and plant size are the dominant variables, their impact on the growth may be examined in the context of the pattern equation. A preliminary analysis of oxide production activity also appears to follow this same innovation model.The results suggest a fertile field of future research extending the initial platform equation model to include R&D, Patents, and Performance, as well as Sales, as innovation activity. Further, the model shows promise in combination with the ARI methodology model for analysis and assessment of existing and future industrial technology life cycles involving material, process, product, software and service innovations.     

Disaggregative policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation

A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made using Finnish transport policy as an example. A disaggregative Delphi method as opposed to traditional consensual Delphi was applied. The article summarises eight Delphi pitfalls and gives an example how to avoid them. A two-rounded disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector. Panelists were shown the past development of three correlating key variables in Finland in 1970-1996: GDP, road traffic volume and the carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic. The panelists were invited to give estimates of their organisation to the probable and the preferable futures of the key variables for 1997-2025. They were also asked to give qualitative and quantitative arguments of why and the policy instruments of how their image of the future would occur. The first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a fairly structured interview. The responses of the quantitative three key variables were grouped in a disaggregative way by cluster analysis. The clusters were complemented with respective qualitative arguments in order to form wider scenarios. This offers a relevance to decision-making not afforded by a nonsystematic approach. Of course, there are some problems of cluster analysis used in this way: The interviews revealed that quantitatively similar future images produced by the panelists occasionally had different kind of qualitative background theory. Also, cluster analysis cannot ultimately decide the number of scenarios, being a choice of the researcher. Cluster analysis makes the choice well argued, however.     

Mapping expectations for system transformations: Lessons from Sustainability Foresight in German utility sectors

Expectations held by different actor groups are of key importance for the shaping of socio-technical transformation processes. Foresight activities may be interpreted as a means to elicit, aggregate, modulate and contextualize expectations held by different actors. The paper proposes a conceptual framework that allows assessing and reflecting expectations in foresight initiatives that focus on sustainable sector transformations. For this purpose it draws on the recent literature on socio-technical system transformations and social expectation dynamics. The application of the framework is illustrated by experiences gained with the Sustainability Foresight method developed for the case of sustainable utility sector futures in Germany. The process was conceived as a series of participative scenario and strategy workshops involving about 120 stakeholders from the provision, use and governance of utility services.