High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

Information Collection Strategic Design in Experts-assisted Decision Making Paradigm

In an experts-assisted decision making paradigm, the information collection design becomes a strategic variable under a weak assumption that the final decision is dependent on the design used to collect information as well. As a result, the same information of the experts and the decision maker about the problem can potentially produce different final decisions for different information collection designs. The implication is that a decision maker can strategically select a design which serves his/her objective. This paper uses a Bayesian estimation methodology for combining experts' information with the decision maker's prior. An information collection process is designed by setting constraints on this model. Several designs are developed here using such controlled factors as a one-stage versus a two-stage decision process, experts' rank ordering, and group versus individual lobbying/consultation. An example is provided to illustrate the applicability of the concept. It is shown that the information produced in the process of producing a decision can also give insights into the impacts of the decision maker and the experts on the decision.     

Challenging Group Support Systems Research: The Case for Strategic Decision Making

Strategic decision making (SDM) often occurs in groups that can benefit from the use of group support systems (GSS). However, no comprehensive review of this logical intersection has been made. We explore this intersection by viewing GSS research through the lens of SDM. First, SDM is broadly characterized and a model of GSS-mediated SDM is produced. Second, we review empirical GSS research linking these findings to the characteristics of SDM. We conclude that GSS research has not produced sufficient knowledge about group history, heterogeneity, member experience, task type, time pressure, technology or tool effects, and decision consensus for a favorable evaluation of SDM in GSS groups. SDM in GSS groups challenges researchers to study the effects of group processes such as those just mentioned in a context that involves ongoing and established groups, political activity, and a multiplicity of tasks.     

论物质信息和抽象决策信息的联系

本文从物质社会进程的发展入手,分析了社会经济发展所包含的信息和四种交换类型,探讨了货币作为一种新的交换媒介,以物质流的形式对经济发展的促进作用,并以熵的形式论述了物质信息和决策之间的联系。在以交换为不可再分单位的现代经济中,物质流的客观衡量是基础,物流科学技术为决策模型提供了有力的知识补充。物质信息和决策模型应共同向前发展。     

Ethical Decision Making: A Comparison of Computer- Supported and Face-to-face Group

This study compares computer-supported groups, i.e., groups using group support systems (GSS), and face-to-face groups using ethical decision-making tasks. A laboratory experiment was conducted using five-person groups of information systems professionals. Face-to-face (FTF) and GSS groups were compared in terms of their decision outcomes and group members' reactions. The results revealed that computer-supported and face-to-face groups showed no significant difference in terms of the decision outcomes of choice shift and decision polarity. However, FTF groups reached their decisions more quickly and they were more successful in attaining group consensus than GSS groups. Subjects evaluated face-to-face communication more favorably than GSS interaction on most post-group measures related to perceived group processes and satisfaction. Despite these outcomes, some possibilities for using GSS technology in an ethical decision making context are examined.     

金融发展与企业家创业决策

分析金融机构监督成本与企业家创业之间的联系。在各企业家具备同样的融资能力的情况下,由于全融机构的监督成本不同,将出现不同的决策。在高监督成本下,只有一部分潜在企业家选择创业,全融机构为这些企业家提供较少的融资;在低监督成本下,将有更多的潜在企业家选择创业,并能获得较多的融资。     

Simple Decision Aids and Consumer Decision Making

To help consumers deal with increasing amounts of information, many online retailers offer simple decision aids, such as the ability to sort on a particular attribute or eliminate undesired alternatives. The authors propose that consumers use simple decision aids as substitutes for cognitive effort, potentially with adverse consequences for decision making. An experimental study shows that providing unrestricted sorting increases decision quality only when choice conflict is low; beyond a certain point, greater use of the decision aid is associated with declines in decision quality. A second study shows that that allowing consumers to sort alternatives only one time enhances decision quality and, when choice conflict is high, reduces decision effort. A third study shows that providing elimination as well as sorting tools helps mitigate the negative effects of simple decision aids. Although the availability of sorting alone hurts decision quality when choice conflict is high, decision quality under choice conflict is improved when both sorting and elimination tools are provided. Implications for retail practice are discussed.     

多元化战略管理:决策程序及其理论依据

通过对多元化战略的理论回顾,总结多元化战略管理研究的理论流派,多元化战略管理理论对中国企业进行多元化决策的指导意义,并创造性地提出了多元化战略管理决策程序及其理论依据,试图初步建立起多元化理论与企业实践操作间联系的纽带。     

基于商业伦理观的商誉成本计量与决策分析

企业在商业活动中,以道德的行为来影响商誉价值,而商誉价值的提升,是需要付出一定代价的。商誉成本是维持或提高企业商誉价值所付出的代价或费用,并是商业伦理决策过程中或商誉决策时所必须考虑的一个重要因素。基于商业伦理观的商誉成本的正确计量及决策分析是企业在战略的角度提升商誉价值的关键所在。     

Ethical Decision Making and the Employed Lawyer

This article addresses one of the more disturbing questions raised by the major financial failures of the recent past; namely, how it could be that professionals, highly trained both in ethics and technical disciplines, should apparently collude with management in corporate misbehaviour. The article builds on evidence suggesting that professionals in employment contexts find ways of adapting in order to minimise perceived or actual conflict between their professional and organizational obligations and that this, in turn, may affect the way in which they exercise professional judgment. It uses identity theory to propose that professionals may adopt modified identities when employed and that these identities may be expressed, in part, in the way in which they resolve ethical dilemmas. The article reports on the results of a qualitative study in which corporate counsel showed evidence of adopting these identities. The findings suggest that this line of research offers insight into a far more complex world of employed professionals than that traditionally hypothesised and that the popular approach of regulators and others to monitoring corporate governance by appointing professionals as gate-keepers within the organization is perhaps problematic.     

Cognition, Persuasion and Decision Making in Older Consumers

Older adults constitute a rapidly growing demographic segment, but relatively little is known about them within consumer contexts: how they process information, respond to persuasive messages, and make decisions. We discuss extant findings from consumer behavior and related disciplines (e.g., cognitive psychology, neuroscience, social psychology, gerontology) as they pertain to the effects of aging on consumer memory, persuasion and decision The first two authors co-chaired the workshop at the Choice Symposium and made major and equal contributions to this article. The remaining authors were participants in the workshop. They also contributed to this article and are listed in alphabetical order. We wish to thank the editor and Cathy Cole for their helpful comments on the paper. The article, including a more complete list of references, was shortened to meet the page-length constraints of the special issue. The longer version is available upon request from the senior authors.     

A Model of Ethical Decision Making: The Integration of Process and Content

We develop a model of ethical decision making that integrates the decision-making process and the content variables considered by individuals facing ethical dilemmas. The process described in the model is drawn from Janis and Mann’s [1977, Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict Choice and Commitment (The Free Press, New York)] work describing the decision process in an environment of conflict, choice and commitment. The model is enhanced by the inclusion of content variables derived from the ethics literature. The resulting integrated model aids in understanding the complexity of the decision process used by individuals facing ethical dilemmas and suggests variable interactions that could be field-tested. A better understanding of the process will help managers develop policies that enhance the likelihood of ethical behavior in their organizations. Roselie McDevitt Sc.D. is Assistant Professor of Accounting at␣the Charles F. Dolan School of Business at Fairfield University in Fairfield, Connecticut. Dr. McDevitt teaches financial and managerial accounting. Her Primary areas of research are accounting education and accounting ethics. Catherine Giapponi is an Assistant Professor of Management at the Charles F. Dolan School of Business at Fairfield University in Fairfield, Connecticut. Dr. Giapponi teaches courses in management, organizational behavior, and strategy. Her primary areas of research are corporate governance and business ethics. Cheryl Tromley, Ph.D., is a Professor of Management at␣Fairfield University where she has taught management, organizational behavior, organizational communication, organizational␣culture, organization development, and diversity for 19 years. She has co-authored two editions of the text ``Developing Managerial Skills in Organizational Behavior'␣as well authored or co-authored a significant number of professional articles and presentations related to management and management education.     

Common Ground, Complex Problems and Decision Making

Organisations increasingly have to deal with complex problems. They often use multidisciplinary teams to cope with such problems where different team members have different perspectives on the problem, different individual knowledge and skills, and different approaches on how to solve the problem. In order to solve those problems, team members have to share their existing knowledge and construct new knowledge. Theory suggests that negotiation of common ground can positively affect team decision making on the solution of complex problems, by facilitating knowledge sharing across perspectives. In a small scale study with student groups, external representations supported by a specific negotiation ontology were used to facilitate negotiation by encouraging participants to make their beliefs and values explicit. Results showed that the external representations supported clarifying contributions to group members and increased group participation in discussions.     

An Interactive Approach to Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making with Multigranular Uncertain Linguistic Information

The multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems having multiple sources of uncertain linguistic information assessed in different linguistic label sets are investigated. The existing linguistic labels in a linguistic label set are uniformly and symmetrically distributed, but in many real-life situations, the unbalanced linguistic information appears due to the nature of the linguistic variables used in the problems (Herrera and Herrera-Viedma, Proceedings of 4th international workshop on preferences and decisions, Trento, Italy, 2003). In this paper, we first define some unbalanced linguistic label sets, and then develop some transformation functions to unify the given multigranular linguistic labels in a unique linguistic label set without loss of information. Moreover, we utilize the uncertain linguistic weighted averaging operator to aggregate all individual uncertain linguistic decision matrices into a collective one, and define two similarity measures, one for measuring the similarity degree between each pair of uncertain linguistic variables, and the other for checking the consensus degrees among the individual uncertain linguistic decision matrices and the collective uncertain linguistic decision matrix. Finally, we develop an interactive approach to MAGDM with multigranular uncertain linguistic information and illustrate the developed approach with an application example.     

Determinants of Ethical Decision Making: The Relationship of the Perceived Organizational Environment

This study attempts to help explain the ethical decision making of individual employees by determining how the perceived organizational environment is related to that decision. A self- administered questionnaire design was used for gathering data in this study with a sample size of 245 full-time employees. Perceived supervisor expectation, formal policies, and informal policies were used to assess the expressed ethical decision of the respondents. The findings indicate that the perceived organizational environment is significantly related to the ethical decision of the respondent.     

A Note on Linguistic Hybrid Arithmetic Averaging Operator in Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making with Linguistic Information

In this paper, we propose a linguistic hybrid arithmetic averaging (LHAA) operator, which is based on linguistic weighted arithmetic averaging (LWAA) operator and extended ordered weighted averaging (EOWA) operator, and study some desirable properties of the LHAA operator. The LHAA operator can not only reflect the importance degrees of both the given argument and its ordered position, but also relieve the influence of unfair arguments on the decision results by weighting these arguments with small values. Based on the LWAA and LHAA operators, we develop a practical approach to multiple attribute group decision making under linguistic environment. The approach first aggregates the individual linguistic preference values into a collective linguistic preference value for each alternative by using the LWAA and LHAA operators (it is worth pointing out that the aggregation process does not produce any loss of linguistic information), and then orders the collective linguistic preference values to obtain the best alternative(s). Finally, an illustrative example is also given to verify the approach and to demonstrate its feasibility and practicality.     

Ethical Decision-Making Differences Between American and Moroccan Managers

Our research’s aim is to assess the effect of cultural factors on business ethical decision-making process in a Western cultural context and in a non-Western cultural context. Specifically, this study investigates ethical perceptions, religiosity, personal moral philosophies, corporate ethical values, gender, and ethical intentions of U.S. and Moroccan business managers. The findings demonstrate that significant differences do exist between the two countries in idealism and relativism. Moroccan managers tend to be more idealistic than the U.S. managers. There is a strong positive relationship between religiosity and idealism. There were mixed findings in examining the correlates of religiosity and various components of ethical intentions. Moroccan managers were more homogenous in their corporate ethical values than were the U.S. managers. The results demonstrate that (in general) idealism is a good predictor of ethical intentions and behaviors. Additionally, managers from the two countries differed in the degree of relationship between perceptions and intentions in three of the four scenarios. This study’s results confirm other research findings that, in general, female business managers have higher ethical sensitivity in terms of their ethical judgment than their male counterparts. Managerial implications are also discussed.     

Teasing Ethical Decision Making Dilemmas: A Case Study of Land Rights Issues

The purpose of this paper is to highlightthe complexities in making decisions in an ethical wayevidenced by the current dispute over native landrights in contemporary Australia. The caseillustrates an example of a moral issue that involvesmaking a management choice. One approach which givespractice in four questions that the managementpractitioner can ask when faced with a moral dilemmais described. The case involves an on-going situationin which the Australian Government was faced withsupporting the land claims of either indigenousgroups or land holding pastoralists. TheGovernment, therefore, was on the horns of a classicdilemma, having to decide between two groups eachseeking `justice' and `fairness'.The paper refers to contemporary authorities such asRawls, De George, Paine and Badaracco (Jnr). In thecontext of ethical decision making, the main eventsleading to the present dilemma are presented. Thecase study includes a summary outlining the AustralianGovernment's Ten Point Plan response to thedilemma and a summary of the perceived problems forbusiness development where native title is recognised. These can be used to provide students in businessethics classes with an opportunity to recognise anddebate the rights, wrongs and complexities of moralissues as well as appropriate managerial decisionmaking.     

Recurrent Marketing Decisions: Decision Complexity,Decision Focus,and Firm Performance

In this paper we examine the nature of the decision-making process for recurrent marketing decisions and its effects on firm performance. A conceptual model of recurrent decision-making in a competitive environment is developed and used as a framework for analyzing 96 tactical decisions made by 35 management groups in the last three periods of a management simulation. The decisions were based entirely on a set of decision rules developed by the management groups. The decision rules were coded for whether they were internally or externally focused and how complex their decision process was. These two factors were then used to predict firm performance. There are a number of important results. The greater the uncertainty in the link between a decision variable and its outcome, i) the more likely managers are to prespecify the value of the decision variable rather than construct a decision rule, ii) the less complex the decision rules that are constructed, and iii) the greater the proportion of internally-focused decision rules. In addition, the focus of a decision rule, but not the complexity of the process—independent of the focus—is positively related to performance with firms that focus on both internal and external factors doing best.