中国农产品对外贸易的发展对策

本文以中日贸易战为引子，在对中日两国农产品贸易优劣势进行分析的基础上，针对我国入世的实际，提出扬长避短，在开发农产品加工业，发展绿色农业，加强农产品品质与品牌建设方面下苦功，才能使我国农产品在日趋激烈的国际竞争中占领一席之地。     

Vertical trade and free trade agreements

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on tariffs and welfare in vertical trade. We consider a three-country model, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good and a country exporting an intermediate good. The FTA unambiguously leads to a reduction in the member country’s tariff, but may cause the non-member country’s tariff level to increase. In the case, where FTA raises the non-member country’s tariff level, the FTA increases that country’s welfare. In contrast, the FTA may render its member countries better off. This result implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto-improving.     

Catching up in Europe: Finland's Convergence with Sweden and the EU15

Abstract

Although numismatics is one of our oldest disciplines in the humanities, dating back to renaissance Italy, a doctoral thesis on coins and currency history is still unusual, largely because in many countries no systematic university teaching on the subject exists. Oslo University is the only one in Scandinavia where it is possible to take a basic examination in numismatics, and, significantly, it was from here that Skaare, former head of the university's coin cabinet, delivered his doctoral thesis, Coins and Coinage in Viking-Age Norway.     

Cannabis sativa and rural livelihoods in South Africa: politics of cultivation,trade and value in Pondoland

Current debate on Cannabis sativa in South Africa has centred on its positive and negative effects on health, as well as its decriminalisation. The contribution of cannabis (dagga) to the livelihoods of people who inhabit some of the poorest parts of the country has thus far been largely ignored. Using a case study of a village in Pondoland, this article argues that while cannabis makes a significant contribution to the livelihoods of many households, the values derived by cannabis farmers vary widely, as determined by social difference, the illegal nature of cannabis production and trade, and the cannabis commodity chain. Furthermore, lobbies to legalise cannabis will not necessarily yield positive results for poor rural cannabis growers, as this could result in lower prices due to the possibility of increased supply, as well as the fact that illegality is what currently keeps the prices fairly high.     

North American trade liberalization and intra-industry trade

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung in Nordamerika und der intra-industrielle Handel. - Der Verfasser untersucht die Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Mexiko und den Vereinigten Staaten in den 80er Jahren und vergleicht sie mit den Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Kanada und den USA im gleichen Zeitraum. Er stellt fest, da? der intra-industrielle Handel in den Beziehungen zwischen Mexiko und den USA an Bedeutung gewonnen hat, was vermutlich auf die zunehmende Handelsliberalisierung Mexikos zurückzuführen ist. In der Tat waren in den sp?ten 80er Jahren die relativen Niveaus des intra-industriellen Handels ?hnlich hoch, wenn man die bilateralen Handelsstr?me zwischen Mexiko und den USA mit denen zwischen Kanada und den USA vergleicht.

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Résumé La libération des échanges nord-américains et les échanges intra-industriels.- Dans cette étude l'auteur examine les tendances du commerce bilatéral entre le Mexique et les Etats Unis pendant les années quatre-vingts. Il les compare aux tendances du commerce bilatéral entre le Canada et les Etats Unis pendant la même période. Il trouve que les échanges intra-industriels sont particulièrement augmenté en ce qui concerne le commerce entre le Mexique et les Etats Unis. Cela montre que la libéralisation commerciale prend place principalement de la part du Mexique. En effet dans les années quatre-vingts, les niveaux relatives des échanges intra-industriels ont été assez similaires si l’on compare les échanges bilatéraux entre le Mexique et les Etats Unis d’une part et le Canada et les Etats Unis d'autre part.

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Resumen La liberalizatión del comercio en América del Norte y el comercio intrasectorial. - En este trabajo se examina el perfil del comercio bilateral entre México y los EE UU en los a?os ochenta y se lo compara con el perfil del comercio bilateral entre el Canadá y los EE UU en el mismo período. Se encuentra que la importancia del comercio intrasectorial aumentó en el comercio entre México y los EE UU durante el periodo estudiado, reflejando ante todo avances en la liberalizatión del comercio por parte de México. En efecto, hacia fines de los a?os ochenta, los niveles relativos de comercio intrasectorial eran bastante similares en ambos casos, México-EE UU y Canadá-EE UU.

     

Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade

In this paper we examine the impact of membership in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962–2000 we find that membership in a PTA is associated with an increase in the extent of intra-industry trade. Our results indicate that this is especially the case for PTAs formed between richer countries, with the effects of PTAs between poorer countries found to be smaller.     

Firm size-specific trade effects of regional trade agreements: Estimating extensive and intensive margins of trade

We estimate the impacts of Korean firms’ participation in regional trade agreements (RTAs) on the extensive and intensive export margins by identifying exporting firms based on their firm size—small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large enterprises (LEs) at the 5 399 HS six-digit commodity level—and specifying characteristics of RTAs from 2004 to 2015. We apply the EK Tobit estimation technique to control zero trade and the OLS estimation with importer-product and time fixed effects to alleviate the endogeneity problem. We find that firm size, product type, and depth of RTA significantly matter. Specifically, we find that deeper RTAs with larger, developing, and closer members significantly enhance the export creation effects of SMEs and LEs. Regarding the firm size-specific effects, we find that SMEs are less sensitive to exploiting RTA participation but more sensitive to the import market size, bilateral and relative trade costs, and the RTA characteristics. LEs’ export creation is mainly driven by the intensive margin, while SMEs’ export creation is driven by extensive and intensive margins (slightly more by the extensive margin). For the product-specific effects, we find that Korea's major exportable products such as chemicals, basic metals, motor vehicles, and transport equipment generate significantly strong export creation effects for both LEs and SMEs through their participation in RTAs.     

Aid and trade

This paper surveys the recent theoretical and empirical literaturethat explores the relations between aid and trade and asks aboutthe complementarity or substitution effects at work. We distinguishbetween the effects of aid on trade flows and on trade policies,of the donor as well as the recipient countries. Special focusis given on trade facilitation, or ‘aid for trade’.     

Technology advantage,terms of trade,and pattern of trade

We develop a two-country, two-sector model of trade, and assume that the differences between two countries are not only the diversities of human capital distributions but also relative production technologies. We find that, in addition to the diversity effect, both the terms of trade effect and the relative technology effect can also matter for the pattern of trade. We prove that, unlike previous results, if combination of the terms of trade effect and the relative technology effect dominates the diversity effect, then a country with more diverse human capital will export goods produced by supermodular technology.     

Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade

This paper investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade using a comprehensive data base of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. Total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines where preferences are likely to matter): while the former was one-third of global trade in 2000–2002, the latter was between one-sixth and one-tenth. Gravity model estimates indicate that using total trade to assess the impacts of PTAs leads to a significant downward bias in the PTA coefficient: the semi-elasticity of trade with respect to PTA membership rises from 87% for total trade to 119% for preferential trade. Product exclusions and long phase-in periods significantly limit preferential trade; the marginal impact of South-South agreements on preferential trade is much higher than North-South PTAs, while the effect of North-North agreements is insignificantly different from zero.     

Impact of trade cost on China-EU agri-food trade

In this research, we investigate trade costs in relation to China-EU trade in agri-food products during 2001–2015. Major components of trade cost include transportation costs, border-related policy barriers such as tariffs, and local distribution costs. Our results indicate that trade costs between China and EU involving agri-food products, although falling, remain abnormally high. Consequently, we find that trade cost reductions contribute to over half of the overall China-EU trade growth. Our decomposition technique demonstrates that economic growth and trade cost reductions are the key drivers of China-EU trade expansion. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would reduce high trade costs to increase EU-China bilateral agricultural trade significantly. This is not fully captured in the gravity models where a static distance is usually used as a proxy to trade cost. The BRI will not reduce the distance, but it will cut transportation and other components of trade cost for China-EU trade.     

新贸易壁垒对我国外贸的影响及对策

在传统贸易壁垒作用日益减弱的今天,技术壁垒、绿色壁垒、社会壁垒等新型的非关税壁垒已成为我国外贸发展的主要障碍。新贸易壁垒有具体成因,并已对我国的外贸产生了许多影响,要突破新贸易壁垒必须在积极推广使用国际标准等方面采取相应的对策。     

环境贸易壁垒与我国可持续贸易发展战略

环境贸易壁垒是当代国际贸易中一种新型而又广泛的非关税贸易壁垒，并广泛地影响着我国农产品、纺织品、机电产品、玩具、医药产品等的出口。为了推动我国对外贸易的可持续发展，政府要树立环保观念，发展环保产业，培育环保企业，把握国际环保动态，打破环境贸易壁垒；企业本身应树立可持续贸易战略观念，实行“清洁生产”，优化贸易商品结构，开发生态环保产品，实施环境营销策略，推行ISO14001环境管理体系。     

Processing trade,exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in China's bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan's appreciation on China's processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering bilateral processing trade between China and its partners from 1993 to 2008. The empirical results show that: (1) processing trade accounted for 100% of China's annual trade surplus during the period; (2) China's processing trade showed a significant regional bias—77% of processing imports originated from East Asia while only 29% of processing exports was destined to the region in 2008; and (3) a real appreciation of the yuan would negatively affect both processing imports and exports—specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only China's processing exports by 9.1% but also its processing imports by 5.0%. Based on these empirical findings we conclude that the combined effect of the yuan's appreciation on the balance of processing trade and thus China's overall trade balance will be limited.     

Determination of trade flows and choice of trade partners: Reconciling the Heckscher-Ohlin and the Burenstam Linder models of international trade

Zusammenfassung Die Bestimmung der Handelsstr?me und Auswahl der Handelspartner: Wie man die Au\enhandelsmodelle von Heckscher-Ohlin und von Burenstam Linder in Einklang bringt. — In der Au\enhandelsliteratur werden zwei Ans?tze zur Bestimmung der komparativen Vorteile unterschieden: (i) das Heckscher-Ohlin-Modell, das die relative Verfügbarkeit der Produktionsfaktoren als die ent-scheidende Determinante der Handelsbeziehungen ansieht; und (ii) das Burenstam Linder-Modell, das untersucht, wie sich gleichartige Pr?ferenzen der Konsumenten in der Nachfrage und im internationalen Handel niederschlagen. Dieser Artikel verbindet beide Ans?tze in einem einzigen Modell, in dem jeder der beiden Ans?tze nur einen Spezialfall darstellt. In dem Aufsatz wird die Bedeutung des gemeinsamen Modells für die Handelsstr?me, die Konsumm?glichkeiten und die Relation zwischen dem Au\enhandel und der Gr?\e einer Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Im empirischen Teil wird demonstriert, wie nützlich das Modell bei der Vorhersage des Handels mit unterschiedlichen Produktgruppen ist.

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Résumé La détermination des flux d’échanges et le choix des partenaires com-merciaux: La réconciliation des modèles de l’échange international de Heckscher-Ohlin et de Burenstam Linder. — La littérature sur les échanges internationaux distingue entre deux approches à la détermination de l’avantage comparatif: (i) le modèle de Heckscher-Ohlin qui regarde l’abondance relative des facteurs de production comme déterminant principal des relations commerciales; (ii) le modèle de Burenstam Linder qui examine la similarité des préférences des consommateurs comme elle est reflétée sur la situation de demande et les effets sur le commerce extérieur. Cet article incorpore les deux approches dans un seul modèle dans lequel chaque approche constitue un cas spécial. L’article examine les implications du modèle unifié pour les relations commerciales, les possibilités de consommation et le rapport entre les échanges internationaux et la dimension de l’économie. La section empirique démontre l’utilité du modèle pour prédire les relations commerciales des différents groupes des biens.

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Resumen Determination de los flujos comerciales y la elección de los socios comerciales: Reconciliando los modelos de comercio international de Heckscher-Ohlin y Burenstam Linder. — La literatura del comercio internacional distingue entre dos planteamientos para la determinatión de las ventajas comparativas: (i) el modelo de Heckscher-Ohlin, que considera la abundancia relativa de factores de production como el determinante más importante para el patrón de comercio; (ii) el modelo de Burenstam Linder, que examina las similitudes en los gustos re-flejados en el acondicionamiento de la demanda y su impacto sobre el comercio. En este artículo se incorporan los dos planteamientos dentro de un modelo único en el que cada uno constituye un caso especial. El artículo examina las implicaciones del modelo unificado para los patrones de comercio, posibilidades de consumo y la relatión del comercio con respecto al tama?o del país. La parte empírica del artículo demuestra la utilidad del modelo para predecir patrones de comercio de distintos grupos de productos.

     

中俄经贸合作及俄罗斯对外经贸合作的环境分析

纵观中俄贸易发展历程,无论是高峰与低谷,自然受其当时双方贸易环境的制约.目前,中俄经贸合作已呈现出快速发展趋势,说明中俄经贸合作环境有所改善,特别是俄罗斯的对外经贸政策、税收、投资、法律、市场等环境已发生一些积极的变化.为此,我们要及时调整对俄经贸战略,进一步推进对俄经贸合作.     

浅论国际服务贸易中的交易费用

与其它市场交易一样，国际服务贸易的发展要受到交易费用的影响。本文首行分析了这种影响，然后着重论述了影响国际服务贸易交易费用的因素，最后对可能减少国际服务贸易交易费用的因素进行了说明-其中包括GATS对之所作的贡献。     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

WTO《贸易技术壁垒协议》与我国出口贸易

技术性贸易壁垒巳经成为影响我国出口贸易的一大问题，本文分析了国际技术性贸易壁垒的种类，技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响，并在此基础上分析了我国遭受发达国家技术性贸易壁垒的一些原因，并提出了应对措施。