Military positions and post-service occupational mobility of Union Army veterans, 1861–1880

Although the Civil War has attracted a great deal of scholarly attention, little is known about how different wartime experiences of soldiers influenced their civilian lives after the war. This paper examines how military rank and duty of Union Army soldiers while in service affected their post-service occupational mobility. Higher ranks and non-infantry duties appear to have provided more opportunities for developing skills, especially those required for white-collar jobs. Among the recruits who were unskilled workers at the time of enlistment, commissioned and non-commissioned officers were much more likely to move up to a white-collar job by 1880. Similarly, unskilled recruits assigned to white-collar military duties were more likely to enter a white-collar occupation by 1880. The higher occupational mobility of higher-ranking soldiers is likely to have resulted from disparate human capital accumulations offered by their military positions rather than from their superior abilities.     

Farmers at the heart of the ‘human capital revolution’? Decomposing the numeracy increase in early modern Europe†

Did the early development of skills and numerical abilities occur primarily in urban centres and among the elite groups of society? This study assesses the human capital of different occupational groups in the early modern period and partially confirms this finding: skilled and professional groups had higher levels of numeracy and literacy than persons in unskilled occupations. However, there was another large group that developed substantial human capital and represented around one‐third of the total population: farmers. By analysing numeracy and literacy evidence from six countries in Europe and Latin America, we argue that farmers contributed significantly to the formation of human capital and, consequently, to modern economic growth.     

Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

Convergence and divergence of numeracy: the development of age heaping in Latin America from the seventeenth to the twentieth century1

This study makes the first systematic attempt to trace the long‐term development of Latin American numeracy, a phenomenon of great interest to economic historians in that it serves as an accurate gauge of human capital development. In order to approximate basic numeracy we use age‐heaping techniques. We find that Latin America was on a path of convergence with western Europe during the early eighteenth century. During the early nineteenth century, not only did numeracy development stagnate in some Latin American countries but differences among some of them actually increased. While numeracy rates in Argentina, Uruguay, and to a lesser extent Brazil, along with Europe, underwent a significant increase in the late nineteenth century, they declined in Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia. By performing a regression analysis, we find that, even when we control for investment in education, mass immigration contributed to human capital formation.     

English county populations in the later eighteenth century1

When directing the first English census John Rickman was intent not only on discovering the size of the population in 1801 but also on tracing past trends both nationally and for individual counties. He returned to the latter investigation on several later occasions, notably in the 1830s. There have been many subsequent attempts to improve upon his national estimates, but his estimates of county totals have continued to be used extensively, either unchanged or slightly modified. Rickman was aware that his estimates were subject to wide margins of error. For the later eighteenth century it is possible to produce new estimates which are probably substantially more accurate, taking advantage of the fact that after Hardwicke’s Act (1753) the registration of marriages in Anglican parish registers, unlike that of baptisms and burials, was virtually complete. They show that the contrast between population growth rates in ‘industrial’ counties and those in which agriculture continued to predominate were significantly more marked than suggested by Rickman’s estimates. The same exercise that produces county estimates also yields hundredal totals, which will in future allow a more refined account of relative growth and stagnation to be made.     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

The impact of war on Russian and Soviet development 1850–1950

This article discusses the magnitude of wartime losses to Russian capital stock and population, the prospect of benefits from wartime developments and the burden imposed by the transfer of resources to the war effort. Total losses of manpower and capital, and the deprivation of civilian consumers, were greater in the Civil War (1918–1920) than in 1914–1917, but were exceeded by the impact of the Second World War (1941–1945). Potential benefits are not found to be significant. This article also examines the losses of population and capital during the ‘internal war’ of the 1930s.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

俄罗斯国防工业技术“寓军于民”金融支持实践

俄罗斯大力推行国防科技工业企业一体化,通过组建大型国防企业集团,增强国防科技工业的国际竞争力,并在电子技术和信息技术等领域采取了许多有效的措施。同时国家政策倾向于对国防工业进行各种形式的融资支持。俄罗斯的实践经验对中国发展国防工业有所启示。     

Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in the Midwest in the Late Nineteenth Century

It is well known that early settlers on the frontier reaped the benefits of development as population grew, especially through capital gains on real estate. But population turnover—so pervasive in the rural north in the nineteenth century as well as in contemporary settlement economies—also afforded early settlers an advantage: they knew local soil and market conditions better than those who settled later. Such location-specific human capital augmented the incomes, and therefore the wealth, of early settlers. Early settlers in Missouri had higher rates of wealth accumulation than later arrivals, and the contribution of location-specific human capital was at least equal to the contribution of capital gains.     

Elites and the expansion of education in nineteenth‐century Sweden

A large literature emphasizes that elite capture of political institutions hampered the spread of mass schooling in the nineteenth and twentieth century. We collect new data on investments in elementary education and the distribution of voting rights for more than 2,000 local governments in nineteenth‐century Sweden and document that educational expenditure was higher where the distribution of political power was more unequal. In particular, areas governed by local landed elites—even those where a single landowner had de jure dictatorial powers—invested substantially more in mass schooling relative to areas where political power was more widely shared, or where it lay in the hands of capitalist elites. Our findings lend quantitative support to an earlier literature produced by economic and social historians which argues that landed elites advanced mass schooling as part of their historical role as patrons of the local community and as a response to the increasing proletarianization of the rural population, while also furthering our understanding of how Sweden maintained a high level of human capital despite its low level of economic development and restricted franchise in the nineteenth century.     

COLONIALISM AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA: AN EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN VICTORIA'S WATER SECTOR DURING THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Institutional change in water rights in the nineteenth century Australian colony of Victoria raised institutional efficiency, which contributed to long‐run economic growth. High‐quality human capital and the extension of voting rights (franchise) were crucial for efficient institutional change in the water sector. Quality human capital (literacy) appeared to increase the rural population's awareness of the economic impact of the existing structure of water rights that may have constrained growth in the agricultural sector and reduced investment incentives. Extension of the franchise allowed the rural population to exert political pressure for enactment of change in water rights, which resulted in efficiency‐enhancing policies and efficient institutions. The findings show these two factors were more important than Victoria's British colonial heritage in determining whether growth‐enhancing institutional change took place.     

Human capital in Britain, 1760–2009

Human capital can be defined as the knowledge, skills, competencies and attributes embodied in individuals that facilitate the creation of personal, social and economic well-being. It is arguably one of the most important determinants of economic growth. In general, human capital has been calculated with two different approaches: (1) retrospective method through the expenditures on education, (2) prospective through the discounted sum of the wages it would receive over the expected number of remaining working years. In this paper we use the prospective method to calculate human capital in the UK from the mid-eighteenth century to the present, providing the by far longest estimate for human capital for any country. To overcome the problems related to the scarcity of historical data, we developed a method which is able to make the most efficient use of the scarce data available for the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Our calculations show a 112-fold increase of human capital, and a 13-fold increase of human capital per worker and per capita from 1760 to 2009. Using cumulative schooling expenditures from 1833 to 2000, we examine whether increased spending on schooling explains this phenomenal growth in human capital.     

Numeracy of Africans,Asians, and Europeans during the early modern period: new evidence from Cape Colony court registers

The lack of accurate measures of human capital formation often constrains investigations into the long‐run determinants of growth and comparative economic development, especially in the developing world. Using the reported ages of criminals in the Court of Justice records in the Cape Archives, this article documents for the first time numeracy levels and trends for inhabitants of the Cape Colony born between the late seventeenth and early nineteenth century: the native Khoesan, European settlers, and imported slaves from other African regions and Asia. This variety of origins allows us to compare contemporaneous levels of early modern development across three continents. By isolating those slaves born at the Cape, we also provide a glimpse into the dynamics of human capital transfer in a colonial setting. The Colony's relatively high level of human capital overall had implications for what was later to be the richest country on African soil, but the very unequal attainment of numeracy also foreshadowed extreme income inequality.     

Immigration and the path dependence of education: the case of German‐speakers in São Paulo,Brazil (1840–1920)

This article studies the path dependence of human capital accumulation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It focuses on the impacts of German‐speaking immigrants on education through three channels: their share of the population in the nineteenth century, their on‐the‐job skills, and the schools they founded. Using a new dataset based on almanacs from 1873 and 1888, these effects are evaluated for the nineteenth, early twentieth, and early twenty‐first centuries. The article shows that the institutionalized demand for education of these immigrants, reflected by the establishment of schools, was their main contribution to the accumulation of human capital. The effect of German schools on educational levels required a period to mature and dissipated over time. Nevertheless, its influence was substantial at the beginning of the twentieth century, affecting enrolment levels in private and state schools, a result that suggests the existence of spillover and contagion effects. Moreover, current indicators for stocks and flows of human capital in São Paulo are strongly associated with their historical levels. At the same time, this path dependence is conditional on the type of school: while a positive persistence is found for the private system throughout the twentieth century, convergence occurred in state schools.     

A View of the Occupational Structure in Imperial and Republican China (1640–1952)

Despite being considered a prime indicator of economic change, the occupational structure does not figure prominently in the debate regarding the economic development of early modern China. One reason is the virtual absence of occupational data before the start of the twentieth century. In this paper, we make a first attempt to sketch the occupational structure between ca. 1640 and 1952 using a variety of unique and rather fragmented occupational sources. We find that the share of persons working in agriculture remained stable until the mid-nineteenth century, with the share in industry showing some growth thereafter.     

Note on global dynamics and imbalance effects in the Lucas–Uzawa model

In the traditional literature on the Lucas–Uzawa model, it is proved that in the so‐called normal parametric case, human capital stock grows at a rate greater than its long‐run counterpart in the neighbourhood of the long‐run balanced growth path. We first prove that the claim is true outside the neighborhood of balanced growth paths. More importantly, we identify a crucial asymmetry: whatever the parametric case considered, physical capital stock always grows at a rate lower than its long‐run counterpart when the ratio of physical to human capital is above its long‐run value.     

Public Sector Growth in the British Cape Colony: Evidence From New Data on Expenditure and Foreign Debt, 1830-1910

The public expenditure shifts that took place following the discovery of diamonds and gold during the second half of the nineteenth century had far-reaching consequences for southern Africa’s development. Using new data for public expenditure and foreign debt in the Cape Colony and evidence from Cape parliamentary budget debates, we trace and explain the growth of the public sector. We find that the coincidence of mineral discovery in 1867 and the granting of responsible government status rapidly accelerated the growth of the public sector. Owing to strong mining interests, railways accounted for more than 70% of the public works expenditure from the 1880s onwards. Spending on human capital and welfare enhancement remained limited. Both the quantitative and qualitative evidence suggests that the mining elites managed to build coalitions that swayed public expenditure decisions towards self-serving ends.