中国双边贸易成本变动与影响实证研究

贸易成本是阻碍全球贸易自由化的重要因素之一,也是国际贸易领域研究热点之一.文章测量了中国与主要进出口贸易对象的双边贸易成本,并尝试探讨其对双边贸易额的影响.研究发现,中国的双边贸易成本总体上呈下降态势,且双边贸易成本的下降是促进贸易额扩大的主要因素.文章还考察了多边贸易对双边贸易成本的影响,实证分析结果显示“贸易转移效应”部分存在,而中国的多边贸易对双边贸易没有产生负面影响.     

Unemployment and Economic Policy in Denmark in the 1930s

Abstract

The paper examines Danish unemployment and the employment policy in the 1930s. The unemployment data indicate that though the unemployment increased dramatically the rate of unemployment remained low. The official Danish unemployment records definitely underestimated the actual unemployment in the early 1930s, but the discrepancy was hardly as big as some scholars have suggested. The paper furthermore points out that the rather atypical rise in the Danish unemployment from the mid-1930s can be attributed to a rise in the natural rate of unemployment due to an improved unemployment insurance coverage and a more comprehensive registration of the unemployment. The second part of the paper deals with the Danish employment policy. Unemployment remained high on the political agenda, but the employment problem never became the main target for the economic policy. An active employment policy was constrained by the problems of the balance of payments and the political disagreements in parliament. While the macroeconomic policy did help to stabilize the economy and the employment, the number of measures directly targeting the labour market was small, and they seldom gave rise to much job creation.     

Economic fluctuations in Sweden in 1919–1921

Abstract

In August and September 1918 the military successes of the Western Powers had a marked effect on the foreign exchange market in Stockholm and conditions subsequently remained unstable, reflecting the fluctuations in the political outlook. Even the Reichsmark rate showed some improvement at first, though this was shortlived and rapidly changed to a steady decline. The dollar and pound rates on the other hand experienced a rise of a more extensive and lasting character. In August the average rate for the dollar was 2.82 and by November it had reached 3.57. The dollar rate averaged 3.96 in 1919, 4.92 in 1920 and 4.46 in 1921. The average figures for: the pound were 13.40 in August 1918 and 16.90 in November, 17.45 for the year 1919, 17.93 for 1920 and 17.12 for 1921.²     

Prices and the growth of the knowledge economy in Sweden and Western Europe before the industrial revolution

Abstract

This article uses long-term series of real prices for various goods and services to analyse the evolution of the knowledge economy before the Industrial Revolution by focusing on Sweden in comparison with other European countries. During the early modern period, the relative price of knowledge-intensive goods and services, such as iron, paper, salt, sea transports and silver, decreased relative to a Consumer Price Index. The increased productivity levels of these goods and services were caused by increased division of labour and accelerated diffusion of knowledge. However, the real price of foodstuff tended to increase, implying that living standards declined with increased population. Early modern Western Europe acquired a peculiar price structure, characterized by low prices of industrial goods relative to the price of food. Only with the advent of industrial society could the knowledge economy escape the Malthusian entrapment.     

Prospect for China-Korea Economic Relations

This paper briefly reviews the economic performance of China's economic reform starting in 1978, and which it presents personal views on the experiences of Korea's economic development and lessons for China's economic reform. The paper reviews the China‐Korea economic relationship, and explores both the opportunities of China's economic development for Korea and the prospects for Bilateral Economic cooperation. It is estimated that the Chinese economy will maintain dynamic growth for the coming decade. The 2008 Olympic Games and the 2010 World Expo in China will provide further impetuses for Chinese economic development. China's huge market and its rapid economic growth can help the further recovery and development of the Korean economy. At the same time, the further development of the Chinese economy can benefit from financial, technical and managerial support from Korea. The complementarities between the industrial structures of China and Korea will surely push their future economic cooperation into a broader and deeper stage. Bilateral trade will enhance the competitiveness of both nations in the global market and help them achieve mutual prosperity and development. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)     

制度变迁与内生经济增长

本文将制度变迁引入了内生增长模型,刻画了制度影响经济增长的内在机制,求解了社会计划者问题的均衡解,并对解的经济含义进行了讨论。模型的基本结论是,制度变迁是经济增长的决定性因素,政府可以通过合理配置人力资本来促进经济增长。     

Economic history research in Sweden since the mid-1970s

Abstract

In the Swedish university system, economic history forms an independent subject falling within the faculty of social sciences. Professorships in the subject were established at Stockholm, Gothenburg, Uppsala, Lund and Umeå between the end of the 1940s and the end of the 1960s. A second chair was established at Lund in 1988. Furthermore, resources have been increased step by step through the addition of other kinds of teaching and research services, including a lectureship at Örebro. Teachers from departments of economic history give tuition not only within the bounds of their own subject but also as components of lengthy courses of professional training, for example, for history teachers and economists. AU the departments in the subject provide research training leading to writing of dissertations in economic history. Most of them also offer a licentiate examination as an intermediate stage on the way.     

西部经济增长模式及其转变难点

我国西部经济增长模式的主要特征 所谓区域经济增长模式，主要是指一类地区经济增长的动力机制和路径。它可以有多种分析、判断的角度和方法，既可以从资源的利用和消耗状况来判断是粗放型还是集约型增长；也可以从投资、消费和出口来分析经济增长的主要贡献源：还可以从经济要素的密集程度来界定是劳动、是资本或是技术为主的经济驱动方式：此外可以从所有制形式来区分国有、集体、个私、外资或混合等经济的主导形式。     

日本城市地价变动及其经济影响分析

城市地价既是土地市场的调控杠杆，也是国家宏观经济景气状况的“晴雨表”，日本的城市地价经历了自1955年至1990年长达35年的持续上涨，创造了“地价神话”，又经历了自1991年“地价泡沫”崩溃至今，长迭12年持续下跌，这在世界各国经济发展历史上都是罕见的，研究日本城市地价变动的基本情况、产生原因及其经济影响，对于我国建立健全城市地价体系和地价管理模式具有重要的启示意义。     

中美两国经济实力变迁的预测

中国和美国是当今世界影响最重大的两个大国,对它们经济实力的变化做预测意义重大。文章独创的相对数预测模型,克服了一般预测模型需要众多假定前提条件以及绝对数受众多因素影响的严重缺陷,结果非常显著地通过了统计检验,模型具有高精度的预测能力。预测结果显示中国经济总量将在2031年超越美国,但人民生活水平才达到当时世界的平均水平,在2049年可达到当时世界平均水平的2倍,中国要达到美国的生活水平则需要更漫长的时间。     

朝鲜的经济变化与中国的作用

在朝鲜经济变化过程中，中国发挥着重要作用。中国对朝鲜的无偿援助、贸易和投资为朝鲜经济发展提供动力；中国成功的改革开放模式为朝鲜提供参考与借鉴；中朝韩三国区域合作既有利于实施东北振兴战略，又可以消除韩国对中朝经济合作的担心和竞争心理，更可以促进朝鲜经济开放，减弱朝鲜对体制安全的忧虑，并逐渐引导朝鲜融入东北亚区域经济合作之中。     

Leadership and Cultural Change: An Economic Analysis

The influence of culture on economic performance is analysed using a rational action economic model. Culture is defined as shared values and beliefs. It is shown that functionally useful values can reduce transaction costs and improve economic performance. Leadership is an important transmission mechanism where culture is concerned. Good leaders can improve economic performance but bad leaders can impair it. Good leaders promote a distinctive combination of values, including both altruism and deliberation in decision-making, whilst bad leaders promote a combination of selfishness and spontaneity. Bad leaders survive because it is easier for them to appropriate pecuniary rents, since they are uninhibited by moral scruples. The globalisation of the mass media has favoured bad leadership at the expense of good. Unless corrective policies are introduced, economic performance will deteriorate as the quality of leadership continues to fall.