A rejoinder to a rejoinder about peasant destinies

Abstract

In his review of my book Peasant Destinies in SEHR 1978:2 Carl-lohan Gadd put forward a number of unfounded statements, which I disputed in a reply in SEHR 1979:2. As Gadd has continued the discussion here with five points, I would like to add a few comments.     

Finnish mortality in the eighteenth century: A reply

Abstract

In SEHR No.2, 1978, Eino ]utikkala took issue on a number of points with my article published in SEHR No.2, 1977, and I should like to make several comments in reply, Firstly, I have found it misleading to call the results of my data adjustments as ‘correction coefficients’. This term tends to suggest that my corrections produce precise results, an impression which the caveats explicitly stated in my text were designed to prevent. My purpose was to provide a rough suggestion of, and an approximation to the extent of errors, since it would have profited no one had I concluded the study with the simple acknowledgment of gaps in the registers and the admission that there is no way of determining their extent. Because this type of research is still relatively new, and because there seemed to be no other way of assessing the number of infants who died below one year of age, but were omitted from the registers of ‘baptised’ and ‘buried’, the national figures were used for the corrections, and an attempt was made to ensure that this approach did not lead to an overestimation of error.     

Scandinavian economic history review the first ten years — A personal memoir

Abstract

Together with my good friend and LSE colleague, the late Donald Coleman, I was Assistant English Editor of the Scandinavian Economic History Review from 1952, when the work first started, to the tenth number which appeared in 1962 and was a Festschrift to Ernst Söderlund. Our association with the Review sprang above all from Söderlund's insistence, strongly endorsed by all his co-editors, that the Review should appear in well written English, not in Svenklish. Of course, since both Donald and I were economic historians, though specialising in very different fields, we were able to advise on academic questions relating to the subject matter as well as with linguistic niceties.     

Income distribution: Second thoughts

Summary As a follow-up of his book on income distribution the author reformulates his version on the scarcity theory of income from productive contributions. The need to introduce into an earnings theory several job characteristics, non-cognitive as well as cognitive, and the corresponding personality traits is stressed, the latter subdivided into innate and learnable capabilities. The theory is presented in two alternative mathematical versions: one where job and person characteristics are continuous and one where they have discrete values and their frequencies assume continuous values. Although, mainly in the United States, numerous empirical inquiries have been made, job characteristics and the corresponding personal characteristics have not been included in sufficient number.I want to express my profound gratitude to Professor Robert H. Haveman, who not only published a deep-delving review article on my book Income Distribution: Analysis and Policies but also commented on an earlier text of the present article. I also owe a great debt to Professor Jan Pen who in a long series of discussions challenged a number of my concepts and figures. Finally I want to thank Dr. S. K. Kuipers for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Trade between Finland and Russia in 1860–1917

Abstract

In his thesis, published in September 1970, Dr. Erkki Pihkala traces the trade relations between Finland and Russia in 1860–1917 against the background of the development of trade and industry in the two countries and their political relations with one another. In addition to this main study he has published complementary minor papers on certain special aspects, all of which we review here.     

The entelechies of mercantilism

Daniel Waldenström's debate article in this issue of the SEHR raises several interesting questions for discussion. I will not comment on his criticisms of Swedish economic historians' publishing practice and their international participation; I will state only that I think economic and business historians in the Nordic countries should increase their international activities and their publications in international journals. In my opinion this concerns particularly scholars in my own country, Norway. Waldenström makes, however, several normative assertions about economic history that concern the discipline as a whole, including the guiding principles of the editorial policy of the SEHR. His normative claims about content and the methodological foundations of economic history deserve an answer.     

Is Economics Useful for Public Policy?

Economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates. Even so, I believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon “best practices,” stated in the form of “general guidelines” or even “universal principles.” However, “best practices” are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice. So my first conclusion is a cautionary, and negative, one: Specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals, firms, markets, countries, and time that most any attempt to define “best practices” that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations. However, even if economics cannot identify “the” truth, it can often identify “a” truth. So my second conclusion is a more positive one: Economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies, but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories, recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances. I illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work. I conclude with some “best practices” recommendations of my own, recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort.     

Finnish mortality in the eighteenth century: The sources and the reality

Abstract

Mr. Niels Steensgaard, in his ‘Consuls and Nations in the Levant from 1570 to 1650’¹ referred in note 4, p. 14, to my article on the beginning of Anglo-Turkish relations, and stated: ‘Apparently Horniker is not aware of the existence of the French capitulations of 1569’. There is no point in arguing whether or not I am aware of them, but later on I will give my reasons for omitting reference to them in my article. The implication of Steensgaard's statement, however, is that they were new capitulations, which, of course, they were not. They were a renewal, in the form of a grant,² by Sultan Selim II of the treaty concluded between his predecessor Suleiman I Kanuni and Francis I in 1536.³ Revised capitulations were granted to France in 158l.4 These, and the treaty of 1536, gave the French certain exclusive privileges in the Ottoman Empire. And until 1593, when Elizabeth I of England obtained capitulations which gave her subjects the same privileges as those enjoyed by the French, France was the paramount capitulatory nation in the Levant.     

The economic background to the union of 1707

Abstract

The view that Scotland was in a state of economic stagnation in the seventeenth century, particularly in the years between the Restoration and the Union, is one which has long been held. Once economic and political historians have read Dr. Smout's book, however, this view will no doubt be greatly modified¹.     

The introduction of the gold standard in Finland in 1877

Abstract

Dr. Björkqvist's voluminous dissertation covers a wide field. The problem of introducing the Gold Standard in Finland in 1877 was in the first place an economic one but negotiations with the Russian authorities also brought up, to a large extent, questions concerning the political relations between the then Grand Duchy of Finland and the Imperial Government of Russia. Dr. Björkqvist considers both these aspects and also approaches the problem from a third angle, the statistical one. He has compiled figures from various sources and turned them into handy time series. Viewed as a whole, however, the book must be classified as a study in economic history.     

Dutch-Asiatic trade in the 17th and 18th centuries

Abstract

Dr. Glamann's study of Dutch-Asiatic trade marks a new approach in the treatment of European-Asiatic relations during the centuries of European invasion and rule of the Indian peninsula and the Indian archipelago. About 1600 the Dutch and English East India Companies became the competitors and successors of the Portuguese in that area. These companies, however, have often been treated in historical writings primarily as the precursors of Holland and England as Empire-builders. Such a view is all too sweeping. It is true that the role of these two companies in the transition from medieval partnerships and regulated companies into modern joint-stock companies has not been overlooked by former historians. But this role is worthy of consideration as a major problem and Dr. Glamann has devoted attention to it, in addition to the trade proper of the Dutch company which was the central theme of his investigation.     

Globalisation and its discontents: an Indonesian perspective

It is indeed a great honour for me to give the 2011 Heinz Arndt Memorial Lecture. The first time I met the great Professor Heinz Arndt was as a nine‐year‐old back in 1966 when our family first came to Canberra and Heinz was my father's (Panglaykim) new boss. I recall that he picked us up at the airport and within the first week we had visited his house in Deakin, where he gave me and my two brothers games such as Chinese checkers and books that his own kids had outgrown. So my first thought was: what a kind and thoughtful man. Little did I know that I would end up being what he often termed his ‘academic grandchild’. I never took a class from Heinz or was fortunate enough to be supervised by him. However, I had many interactions with him when I was a student at the Australian National University (ANU) and, upon graduation, as an aspiring young academic. He had an important influence on the course of my life. First, he encouraged me to do my PhD in the USA. After I completed my masters at the ANU under Peter Drysdale, I toyed with the idea of continuing with a PhD at the Research School of Pacific Studies. However, Heinz convinced me to go to the USA because he thought it would widen my horizons. He was right. Second, there was the importance of being disciplined and thorough in undertaking country or regional research. One of the most important initiation exercises for an academic working on Indonesia was to do a ‘Survey of Recent Developments’ for the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. I recall being given a yellowed document that had been formulated by Heinz with precise guidelines on topics, structure, and people to see and interview. We found similar guidelines on regional surveys when we did economic surveys of all the provinces a few years later. I found that doing the research and interviews for the survey was the easy part. The hard part was the two weeks spent in Canberra writing up the survey and being subjected to peer review. The draft was presented to the ‘editorial team’ and others, including, of course, the venerable Professor Arndt. I am glad to say that I passed in terms of substance; but of course there were lots of edits to do following Heniz's traditional typed‐up comments, both general and specific! Third, despite being a formidable figure and someone with a reputation for strong opinions, Heinz was the same kind and thoughtful man I remembered as a nine‐year‐old. He always had the time of day for the young academics, especially those from Indonesia. I had many cups of tea with him as a student and later as an aspiring academic. I still recall his room in University House filled with his books and the filing cabinet near the bathroom, where he would inevitably pull out the right references and reading materials that one needed. I learned a lot about the importance of mentoring and encouraging the young—many of whom have succeeded and are in the room today. This lecture is to honour Professor Heinz Arndt. I believe Professor Arndt was a true internationalist and therefore he would tackle with gusto the rumblings of discontent on globalisation. He would be thorough in trying to understand the manifestations of globalisation and its sources of discontent. He would also be of the firm belief that the benefits of globalisation outweigh its costs and come up with strategic ideas on how to best manage globalisation to counter ‘globaphobia’. I hope I do justice to this topic in the Heinz Arndt tradition.     

Landowners and tenants in Norway

Abstract

During the past two decades Norwegian historical research has to a considerable extent been concentrated on problems connected with the peculiar nature of the distribution of landownership in Norway before 1661, in which year the king of Denmark and Norway embarked upon a large-scale selling of Crown lands and secularised ecclesiastical estates. The results of the investigations so far carried out have for the most part been published only in parish or other local histories or in short articles in Norwegian periodicals, especially in Heimen, the organ of Norwegian local historians. It is only quite recently that a more comprehensive work has been published in this field, Halvard Bjørkvik's Jordeige og jordleige i Ryfylke i eldre tid.¹ In the present article I propose first to review this book and then to supplement it with a survey of the results of earlier research.     

Birgit Karlsson,Egenintresse eller samhällsintresse,Nazityskland och svensk skogsindustri 1933–1945

Abstract

In Vol. XV (1967) of this journal, Alan S. Milward and Jorg-Jöhannes Jäger published criticisms of my article on Swedish iron are exports to Nazi Germany.¹ Turning first to Milward's contribution, this is based on the assumption that the German economy was a ‘blitzkrieg war economy’ in the period preceding the attack upon the Soviet Union. This view, which has been expressed before by B. H. Klein, undoubtedly brings a number of valuable refinements into the hitherto exaggerated estimates of the level of German armaments at the outbreak of the Second World War.² But when he goes on to say that ‘in such a war economy all considerations of potential armaments-producing capacity were rejected in favour of present armaments-producing capacity’,³ Milward palpably oversimplifies a complex problem. In fact, the demand for an armaments programme ‘in depth’, to quote General Thomas, did make itself heard long before the autumn of 1941.     

A salary bass: a study of bassists’ earnings in the Royal Swedish Opera, 1799–1980

The number of occupations which have hardly altered at all, thus not suffering from Schumpeterian ‘creative destruction’, is very restricted. However, one such profession is the contrabassist's. Classical music is still largely produced in the same way as when it was first performed. There is very little productivity change in the actual production of music from bygone times. This, too, is a phenomenon rare in society at large and in the economy in particular. In this study I test Baumol's Cost Disease with the Swedish Hovkapellet bass players as my focus. The disease occurs when salary increases in jobs that have seen no increase of labour are accepted. Have musicians such as bass players seen a stagnating salary development compared to professions in industries which have actually seen labour productivity growth? This, together with other related issues, is discussed based on longitudinal salary data for the Hovkapellet musicians and similar data from Copenhagen and Paris. All data are primary data collected from the orchestra archives. The data indeed verify the Baumol Cost Disease hypothesis. The open question discussed is whether that is an actual problem or not.     

Discussion of “How Does Intrinsic Motivation Improve Auditor Judgment in Complex Audit Tasks?”

Kadous and Zhou (2018) investigate experimentally how intrinsic motivation improves auditor judgment in complex audit tasks. In my discussion, I elaborate on my comments from the 2016 CAR Conference. Specifically, I comment in the first part of my discussion on the motivation and contribution of the paper, the underlying theory, the experiment and the results. The second part of my discussion is focused on the broader picture of the paper for which I offer some thoughts based on cross‐fertilization of insights from the archival auditing research and I conclude with providing some suggestions for further research.     

In defence of Heckscher and the idea of Mercantilism

Abstract

In his recent reappraisal of Heckscher's Mercantilism ² Dr. Coleman raised certain questions concerning Heckscher's methodological approach which transcend the immediate problem of the nature and validity of the idea of ‘mercantilism’ and have a bearing upon the broader issue of the relationships between economic conditions, ideas and policy. To the present writer, the danger that Heckscher's development of the idea of mercantilism will drive yet another wedge between the political and the economic historians as Dr. Coleman fears,³ is less serious than the danger that Heckscher's apparent reluctance to admit the influence of economic conditions upon economic ideas,⁴ and his readiness to pass directly from generalizations about economic ideas to generalizations about economic policy, will widen the existing gap between economic historians and historians of economic doctrine, two groups of scholars whose mutual services should be considerable. To the student of economic ideas who seeks to rescue his discipline from the sterile pursuit of tracing the genealogy of particular analytic propositions, of which some of his colleagues seem inordinately fond, the matter is one of crucial importance.     

Book Reviews

Abstract

Dr. Utterström's dissertation completes the large project initiated in the 1930s under the auspices, and mainly at the expense, of Landsorganisationen (the Swedish TUC): the production of a comprehensive history of the Swedish working classes.Throughout the undertaking basic research in public and private archives has been necessary, the source material having been used before only to a very limited extent. The final work comprises 12 volumes, written by nine authors, including some of Sweden's leading political scientists and economic historians. This investigation of working class history became one of the main themes of Swedish research in social and economic history for several years; it has accordingly affected the direction of that research in several important respects.     

Strip fields and enclosure in Sweden

Abstract

A study of the history of field systems and land reform in Europe makes one acutely aware of the difficulty of translating the terms used in one language into another. The cause of the difficulty is that practices differ from country to country and even within one single country. A two-field system is not the same in southern Sweden (Skåne) as further north in the Malar provinces. The former had a 4-year, the latter a 2-year, cycle. The term cannot be used therefore to describe both systems unless a clear definition is given, explaining the common features and identifying the differ-ences. The problem is still more difficult when two or more countries are being compared. The differences are often so great that it is more useful to use two different words and it is sometimes more appropriate to retain the original word without translation. The terms run-rig, bocage, Rundling and zadruga are internationally understood by the specialists and any translation would be less meaningful and less accurate than the original. The difficulty of putting the Swedish words enskifte and laga skifte into English has led the author, after consulting the editor of this review, to attempt to give a definition of these and other Swedish terms and then to use them untranslated in the subsequent text.     

Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life

Econometricians have found it useful to separate the problem of empirical inference into statistical and identification components. Studies of identification determine the conclusions that could be drawn if a researcher were able to observe a data sample of unlimited size. Statistical inference seeks to characterize how sampling variability affects the conclusions that can be drawn from samples of limited size. This Association Lecture to the Southern Economic Association describes the broad themes of a research program on identification that I began in the late 1980s and continue today. I show how these themes have played out in my analysis of the selection problem, a fundamental and pervasive identification problem. I examine how the selection problem manifests itself in the econometric analysis of market demand.