Mark och människor. Befolkning och försörjnings-resurser i väslra Småland 1800–1850

Abstract

This dissertation is chiefly about land reclamation, redistribution of holdings and population change in two south Swedish län (counties)—Jönköping and Kronoberg—during the period 1800-1850. These were wooded areas with relatively little arable land, their economy being supplemented by cattle farming, handicraft production for the market, and forestry. Selfsufficient farms predominated, but increasing integration into the market economy provided the background to the changes described by Karlsson.     

Milk in the city: profiles and development paths for urban dairy holders in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Demand for dairy products is growing fast in urban areas. Due to poorly developed rural infrastructure, urban dairy farms are pivotal in making milk available and affordable in towns and cities. Yet current supply fails to meet the increasing demand. In order to formulate fit interventions that can expand urban dairy production, a detailed understanding of urban dairy systems is needed. Using a cluster analysis approach, we profile 304 urban dairy farms in Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia, along three dimensions: input efficiency, market integration, and resilience towards demand seasonality. Our results suggest five distinctive farm types: surviving farms, processing female farms, young male entrepreneurs, established output-efficient farms, and established output-input-efficient farms. We observe large discrepancies in terms of dairy enterprise’s productivity, profitability, and suitability in future urban policy planning. For each of the identified dairy systems, we sketch potential intervention approaches that can feed into more tailored dairy development programmes.     

Prices and Economic Change in Medieval Sweden

Abstract

The article explores relative price changes in medieval Sweden, with a focus on grain, beer, salt, oxen, butter, wax and iron. Supplementary data are provided on copper and hops. Most of these goods declined substantially in price relative to grain. The magnitude of the relative price shifts reflects technological and organisational change. Price cuts tended to be larger for goods that possessed a high knowledge content, such as iron, copper, and beer, or were involved in a more efficiently organised international trade, such as salt. This parallels the notion that north-western Europe, at least from the sixteenth century, developed a distinctive pattern of relative prices, with low prices of industrial goods and high prices of food. It is striking that Sweden, a peripheral economy of medieval Europe, exhibits these traits even before the sixteenth century. The great expansion of the European economy of the early modern period appears as a continuation of the innovations of the late medieval era.     

Manorial economy and corvée labour in southern Sweden 1650–1850*

This essay is an inquiry into manorial production in Scania. Its growth was dependent on the long‐term development of European grain prices. When prices increased landlords were encouraged to put more land under the plough. The estates’ main income came, to an increasing extent, from demesne production, which finally dominated the income profile. The peasants’ most important contribution to the landlords became, in most cases, their corvée labour, and their uncertain tenure rights were illustrated with great clarity in the continuing evictions, which were accelerated in the nineteenth century with the aim of expanding the demesne.     

Mark och försörjning. Befolkning och markutnyttjande i västra Småiand 1800–1850

Abstract

The aim of this article is to study the propensity for the sub-division offarms in Sweden in areas with differing natural conditions, either for specialising in cultivation and corn production on the one hand or for combining agriculture with various subsidiary occupations on the other. The question is whether the increased importance of corn production led to a concentration of landholdings into larger units in the plains studied, and whether the opportunities for subsidiary industries led farmers in forested tracts to sub-divide their holdings. The propensity to sub-divide farms is also studied from the standpoint of land ownership and the significance of increased owner-occupation in terms of the desire of farmers to divide their holdings.     

National and international market integration in the 19th century: Evidence from comovement

This paper analyzes relative wheat price fluctuations to investigate market integration among 72 European and US cities. Applying a Dynamic Factor Model, which has seldom been used in market integration analysis, prices are decomposed into international, national and local components. Thus, national and international market integration are identified by a statistical restriction, and results for each single market are obtained. The first result is that globalization has accelerated faster in the first than in the second half of the 19th century, putting the post-1850 transport revolution into perspective. The USA integrated only later into the European market, discounting the role of the “grain invasion” for trade history. I also show that the European nations that turned protectionist after 1880 reduced the impact of foreign shocks, while free traders fully integrated into the international economy.     

Determinants of technical efficiency and farmers’ crop choice rationality: A case study of rural Gansu,China

Land exchange based on market transactions in which lessors and lessees participate voluntarily not only makes them better off but also enhances the overall efficiency of land use and agricultural production. However, it is worthwhile to empirically explore the effect of land rental on overall technical efficiency in the context of Chinese agriculture because non-farm household producers have increasingly entered the farming business as cultivators. If such producers underperform farm households in terms of efficiency, land consolidation does not necessarily deliver the desired outcome. This study demonstrates that the development of land rental markets improves agricultural technical efficiency at the aggregate level. Another important issue addressed in this study is to examine farmers’ crop choice rationality. China offers an interesting case in this respect. This is because, while the central government has long strived to maintain a high grain self-sufficiency rate, the relative prices of farm products have recently moved in favor of non-grain products. Our empirical result suggests that there is room for further increase in farm revenues of Gansu’s producers by shifting resources away from cereal toward horticultural production.     

Change in the plantation system: American South, 1910-1945

Many questions have not been answered about the tenant plantations in the twentieth century. This paper uses county level data from special plantation censuses taken in 1910 and 1945 to examine changes in the geographic distribution of plantations and how production was organized on them. Although the percentage of land in tenant plantations went down in the South during this period, it increased in some areas and decreased in others. In the areas where it increased, cotton production also increased. This result suggests that in some circumstances plantations had an advantage over small farms.     

粮价上涨最终受益者是农民吗?

与国际范围内粮食价格快速上涨同时,中国粮食市场自2006年9月出现新一轮的粮价上涨。物价上涨在2008年春节前后达到了高峰,特别是食品价格上涨较快。国内粮价不断攀升,看似农民收入增加,但伴随着一系列的农产品生产资料的价格增加,农业间接成本投入的攀升,农民最终收入所剩如何?     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

Kenyan Supermarkets, Emerging Middle-Class Horticultural Farmers, and Employment Impacts on the Rural Poor

Are the rural poor excluded from supermarket channels in developing countries? We analyzed the farm-level impact of supermarket growth on Kenya’s horticulture sector, which is dominated by smallholders. The analysis reveals a threshold capital vector for entrance in the supermarket channel, which hinders small, rainfed farms. Most of the growers participating as direct suppliers to that channel are a new group of medium-sized, fast-growing commercial farms managed by well-educated farmers and focused on the domestic supermarket market. Their heavy reliance on hired workers benefits small farmers via the labor market.     

Efficiency or equity? The effect of an exogenous agricultural commercial shock: Evidence from Manchuria in the 1930s

The adoption of high-value cash crops (HVCs) is considered an efficient way to improve farmers' productivity and welfare, although the systematic empirical evidence is limited. By exploiting an exogenous commercial shock for soybeans and microlevel rural survey data from Manchuria of China in the 1930s, where factor markets were relatively well functioning, this study investigates the influence of HVC cultivation on farmers' agricultural performance, welfare, and inequality both theoretically and empirically. We find that (i) larger farms devote a larger proportion of land to HVCs and that (ii) farmers who cultivate a larger proportion of HVCs have higher agricultural productivity, profit, net income, and expenditure. Furthermore, the adoption of HVCs lowers profit, income, and expenditure inequality by enhancing income from wages relative to land rents, which benefits households with less land.     

基于转型视角的内蒙古奶业竞争力研究

本文以传统奶业向现代奶业转型为视角,以钻石模型为理论框架,对内蒙古奶业竞争力进行了研究。结果表明,内蒙古奶业具有明显的比较优势和竞争优势;丰富的生产要素、巨大的市场潜力、良好的政策环境和产业间的互联互通为内蒙古奶业发展提供了机遇;但奶源紧缺、养殖规模小及奶农组织化程度低成为制约转型期内蒙古奶业竞争力提升的主要因素。     

Interrelationships in maize markets in Southern Africa I: Structural effects of the farmer support programme

A dynamic linear programming matrix is assembled in order to model the Southern African summer grain industry. Supply, demand and production risk, including interactions with production substitutes, are considered. The model is used to evaluate the possible structural effects of the farmer support programme (FSP) taking into account the interrelationships in grain markets in Southern Africa. The effects are evaluated under different marketing policies with respect to changes in land use, prices and labour requirements. A macro view is taken.

An effective FSP will lead to structural changes in land use, prices of products and labour requirements. The effect of the FSP on production, prices and labour will not only vary according to the success in changing over from subsistence maize production to commercial farming in the developing areas, but is also dependent on marketing policies in general. The interrelationships in agriculture and the economy emphasise the need for an overall policy plan.     

The transfer of peasant forest to sawmill companies in Northern Sweden

Abstract

The 1840s inaugurated a period of expansion for timber exports from Norrland which lasted for over thirty years:¹ its background was rising West European demand and the evolution of a system of international free trade, led both in commercial policy and in the market, by England and France. This caused the traditional regions for international timber supply to lose ground relative to the new Swedish competitor. In Norrland early in the nineteenth century large tracts of forest had been handed over by the state to independent peasants, and in many cases title to these forests was subsequently passed on by various means to expanding sawmill companies. The consequences of this were investigated by government committees which reported both social perils and depletion of the forests;² depredations caused by such companies were thus placed under restrictions. The right of free contract was limited in the 1880s by regulating certain types of forest leasehold agreements. At the same time, however, sawmill owners began buying forest lots on such a scale that the very existence of the independent peasant class in Norrland was thought to be threatened. More radical counter-measures were demanded, and were brought into effect in 1906 when the purchase of peasant land in Norrland by companies was prohibited.³ The mutual dealings of peasants and companies gradually came to be viewed as social conflict, and even as a form of class struggle. It is therefore of particular interest to investigate the precise character and scope of the terms under which forest land was transferred: this article will examine the problem in a limited period. Since the evolution of the timber industry in Norrland was by no means uniform, partly because natural conditions varied from place to place, the present enquiry should be regarded as a case-study.     

Some socio‐economic characteristics of tribal and private farmers in the Hlanganani district of KwaZulu*

A survey of eighty‐nine tribal farmers and nine private farmers in the Hlanganani district of KwaZulu was conducted. Results show that agriculture is dominated by elderly tribal farmers operating land allotments of less than one hectare in size primarily for home consumption purposes. Private farmers control much larger farms and are less dependent on off‐farm income.

Almost one half of the tribal farmers interviewed favoured private ownership of grazing and arable land. Traditional leaders favoured the reallocation of land to fewer people and the conversion of grazing land into arable land as a solution to the small farm size problem.

Although education levels were similar among both groups of farmers, most private farmers invested in soil conservation whereas the majority of tribalfarmers did not. Crop losses caused by livestock on arable lands (a result of the tribal tenure system) were identified by tribal farmers as the most important factor restricting increased crop production.     

The transition from tenancy to freehold peasant ownership in Norway

Abstract

Already in the late seventeenth century many tenant farmers in Norway were buying their farms, and it has been held that by about 1750 freeholders were in the majority in the country.     

The effect of settler farming on indigenous agriculture: Evidence from Italian Libya

What effect did the settlement of European farmers have on the indigenous agricultural sector during the colonial period? On the one hand, European immigrants imported skills and capital but, on the other, they took control of local resources. By looking at the short-term effect of Italian farming in colonial Libya, I shed new light on this question. Through regression analysis on a novel village dataset covering the entire country, I show that, in 1939, proximity to Italian farms was associated with significantly lower land productivity relative to distant locations. Lower yields can be explained by the adoption of land-extensive cultivation techniques, implemented by indigenous farmers to counteract a labour drain operated by Italian farms through factor markets. The combined mitigating effect of monetary wages and land-extensive farming only partially compensated for the fall in income linked to reduced land productivity.     

‘Eating the bread out of their mouth’: Antwerp's export trade and generalized institutions, 1544–5

This article studies the distribution of exports from mid‐sixteenth‐century Antwerp at the individual and group level (grouped by merchant origin). Recently, scholars have argued that sixteenth‐century Antwerp, and in its wake a series of other cities, hosted an open‐access market as a result of an evolution towards open‐access institutions. However, the direct effect of this institutional change on merchant enterprise is hard to measure. Relying on detailed tax records, preferences at the individual merchant level for particular destinations and commodities are documented, to evaluate whether exporters had equal chances in Antwerp's export market. A few exporters had large export shares next to a multitude of smaller merchants. The exports of these smaller merchants to distant destinations and their participation in the export of important products demonstrate a fairly level commercial playing field with regard to their larger‐scale colleagues. Foreign traders had access to trade in Low Countries products, while local merchants were active in the export of major transit products. The activities of the latter group are particularly important; contrary to previous literature, Low Countries traders did not differ in their preference for home‐grown products.     

Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.