National accounts and international comparisons for the former Soviet Union

Abstract

Despite a long-standing experience in national accounting in the former USSR, it is well established that official Soviet estimates of economic growth were substantially overstated. Furthermore. a peculiar fact showing the internal inconsistency in the official national accounts ofthe Soviet Union is that independent estimates of relative levels of USSR and US national income and GNP comparisons suggested much lower growth rates. However, even the former comparative level estimates are now by many regarded as overstated. This paper briefly reviews the history of the official national accounts in both the former Soviet Union and new Russia. then turns to a review of the revisionist estimates ofgrowth; and finally offers a comparative discussion ofthe USSR/USA levels.     

Conflict on a global scale: Social imperialism and sub-imperialism — continuities in the structural theory of imperialism

The usual economic theory of imperialism needs to be supplemented by concepts which take into account ‘social’ imperialism and imperialism by ‘delegation’. These concepts are useful in understanding conflicts which are emerging within the Soviet bloc and between the imperialist structure (including the capitalist as well as socialist powers) as a whole and the dominated periphery countries. The Soviet Union is seen as exercising a particular form of imperialism over its subordinate countries, and as fulfilling the role of a sub-imperialist centre in the increased coordination between the capitalist imperial forces.     

A chronology of cycles in real economic activity for Norway, 1867–1914

Abstract

Business cycles, defined as “recurrent sequences of persistent and pervasive expansions and contractions in economic activities”¹, have been a distinctive feature of the experience of capitalist countries as far back as our historical records on aggregate economic activity go. Indeed, Schumpeter maintained that “[a]nalyzing business cycles means neither more nor less than analyzing the economic process of the capitalist era … Cycles are not, like tonsils, separable things that might be treated by themselves, but are, like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them”.²     

前苏联加速开发西伯利亚的历史背景

前苏联加速开发西伯利亚是在美苏“冷战”的国际背景下进行的，具有很强的军事目的；开发西伯利亚的国内原因是要通过调整生产力布局，以增强经济实力，为称霸世界做准备。苏联政府十分重视西伯利亚在实现全苏经济战略总目标中的作用，把加速开发西伯利亚看作是实现全苏经济战略的重要措施。     

Research into the distribution of prosperity. A Danish comment on some Swedish contributions

Abstract

Economic historians studying the very recent past have in the 19505 and 1960s to a large extent chosen to deal with problems connected with economic growth. This is doubtless explained by the pattem of development in Westem economies where govemments showed themselves capable of bringing productive capacity and demand so closely into balance that unemployment was reduced to a fraction of its interwar level. The whole problem of distribution—who should bear how much of the consequences of unemployment and of the other defects of society—accordingly became a secondary consideration in economic and political debate. In its place there was growing interest in how rapidly productive capacity could be raised, and the total amount of goods and services available to the public thus increased. This interest was undoubtedly stimulated by the successful industrialisation of the Soviet Union in the 1930s, the liberation of the colonies after the Second World War, and the growth of intemational communications, all emphasising the problem of what determines vigorous and widespread expansion in national production. Many economic historians in Scandinavia and elsewhere were influenced by economists such as Harrod and Demar, Cobb and Douglas, Kaldor, Solow and Rostow who attempted to answer the question. In both economics and economic history an increasing proportion of the available research capacity was devoted to projects connected with economic growth.     

Ideological myths of modern economic theory and reality

According to the authors, the concept of a market and its antipode, central planning, essentially represent different tools in the arsenal of the state regulation of the economy. The dominance of a particular instrument (the market in modern Russia and centralized planning in the Soviet Union) defines only the predominant type of government regulation and not fundamental differences between economic systems.     

苏联解体原因探析

本文从综观苏联历史,采用综合的、抓主要矛盾的方式对苏联解体原因从苏共改革指导思想、政治体制、经济衰落、人民信度等四个方面进行了研究探析。     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

一场远未终结的辩论——关于苏联解体问题的国外学术诠释

从学科范畴角度对苏联解体问题进行分析是20年来国际学术界的一项重要工作。思考和借鉴这一学术领域的成果将有利于深化对苏联解体这一问题的认识。"帝国"与"革命"范畴的使用,便于学界从历史比较的视角,从以往的帝国和革命现象中探寻大国兴衰的机理。虽然"民族主义"和"联邦制"问题在苏联解体过程中的作用素有争论,但范畴运用的细化显然有助于推进这一方面的认知深化。从社会学角度对于解体之前苏联的社会状况和发展阶段进行分析有利于避免对苏联解体这一问题进行简单化论断,而苏联经济史的国外研究则拓展了对苏联经济模式本质与特征认识的关键性范畴。     

The economic background to the union of 1707

Abstract

The view that Scotland was in a state of economic stagnation in the seventeenth century, particularly in the years between the Restoration and the Union, is one which has long been held. Once economic and political historians have read Dr. Smout's book, however, this view will no doubt be greatly modified¹.     

The Nordic Countries' Trade Liberalisation in the 1950s: An introduction

Abstract

The fall of the Soviet Union re-awoke the interest in economic regime transformation. ¹ See for instance Dornbusch, R. et al (eds.), Postwar Economic Reconstruction and the Lessons for the East Today, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press 1993. How should liberated states navigate the complex and difficult transition from state controlled bilateralism to a market-oriented multilateralism? Liberalisation and structural adjustment could happen faster than the social institutions were capable of absorbing. Transnational economic integration brings returns and efficiency, but at the same time challenges the social and political institutions on which the economic transactions are based. Liberalisation of trade, capital and payments impose considerable constraints on the democracies' governments in their pursuit of national consensus, stability and prosperity. This topic is at the core of the globalisation debate, and formulated as a trilemma between economic integration, proper public economic management and national sovereignty. ² Lawrence, S.H., Reflections on managing Global Integration, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 23, 1999, 3–18.      

The role of U.S. naval power in the Asia‐pacific region: From regional protector to regional balancer

For more than four decades, U.S. engagement in the Asia‐Pacific was centered on two premises: a Cold War commitment to Asian security and the remarkable economic power of the U.S. The U.S. Navy provided a symbol of the United States’ commitment to protect its interests and those of its major Asian‐pacific allies. Despite the end of the Cold War, the security environment of the Asia‐Pacific region is still less changed and even a new threat of a regional naval arms race emerged in the 1990s. In this context, although forward deployments of U.S. military power in the Western Pacific have been scaled down, it is certain that the U.S. naval force will continue to play an important role as a key “regional balancer.” Amid the collapse of the Soviet Union and in the post‐Cold War era, the U.S. has still emphasized the maintenance of a U.S. forward‐deployed presence and strong defense alliances with U.S. allies in order to prevent the emergence of regional hegemonic powers and to contribute to regional stability as well as improve U.S. economic interests. Moreover, in the face of a multitude of threats from state and non‐state actors, the U.S. Navy is increasingly focused on and driven by the demands of peacetime and crisis forward presence.     

The bases of Soviet power in the Third World

This paper examines the process by which the Soviet Union has attempted to establish, maintain and extend its influence in the various regions of the Third World. The author traces the evolution of these relations through the stage of establishing diplomatic relations during the decolonization period and that of the USSR's attempts to harmonize its approach to trade relations with its own strategy of economic development. However, the USSR's natural economic ties with the South were very weak and it therefore chose to favour military assistance over economic aid – an option which it felt would create stronger links of dependency between the recipient countries of the South and the USSR, and thus would reinforce the bases of Soviet power around the world.     

新制度经济学视角下的苏联经济史——对我国政治经济体制改革的启示

本文透过新制度经济学的视角对苏联经济史进行概要分析与研究,特别是运用诺思的制度变迁理论对斯大林模式的僵化导致苏联国民经济低绩效进行历史主义的分析论证,旨在揭示制度变迁与制度创新对经济绩效和经济增长的重要作用。同时,也从另一个角度证实了中国30年改革开放及一系列制度变迁对我国经济发展的积极推动作用。笔者希望通过对苏联经济发展史的制度性分析,能够对当前中国政治经济体制改革有所启示。在我国的改革与制度变迁的历程中,应发挥市场机制的积极作用和社会主义制度的优越性,在政治经济体制不断改革与创新的背景下,推动国民经济的持续、健康发展。     

对苏联社会主义模式的评价——兼论苏共执政惰性

苏联模式曾创造过辉煌的历史,从列宁积极的"试错"式的探索到斯大林模式的成型,苏联社会主义模式失败的教训应该是在苏共长期执政中,往往偏好于寻求一种捷径,最终导致了苏共的执政惰性,把苏联推到崩溃的境地。     

Economic mistakes and their consequences

The author uses his extensive experience as a Chairman of the Board of Promstroibank of the Soviet Union to analyze the main mistakes of reforms in the Soviet economy during the 1960s, the groundless economic measures of perestroika in the 1980s, serious drawbacks of radical market reforms that started in the 1990s, and their effect on the modern state of the Russian economy.     

社会主义革命与落后国家历史宿命浅析——苏东模式失败的历史归宿问题

社会主义革命首先在经济文化落后的国家取得胜利是历史的必然。落后为革命提供了便利,也为社会主义的发展带来了种种弊端。苏联模式、高度集中、计划经济等等,最终促使东欧剧变、苏联解体,苏东模式也以失败告终。     

Birgit Karlsson,Egenintresse eller samhällsintresse,Nazityskland och svensk skogsindustri 1933–1945

Abstract

In Vol. XV (1967) of this journal, Alan S. Milward and Jorg-Jöhannes Jäger published criticisms of my article on Swedish iron are exports to Nazi Germany.¹ Turning first to Milward's contribution, this is based on the assumption that the German economy was a ‘blitzkrieg war economy’ in the period preceding the attack upon the Soviet Union. This view, which has been expressed before by B. H. Klein, undoubtedly brings a number of valuable refinements into the hitherto exaggerated estimates of the level of German armaments at the outbreak of the Second World War.² But when he goes on to say that ‘in such a war economy all considerations of potential armaments-producing capacity were rejected in favour of present armaments-producing capacity’,³ Milward palpably oversimplifies a complex problem. In fact, the demand for an armaments programme ‘in depth’, to quote General Thomas, did make itself heard long before the autumn of 1941.     

CUBA'S SOCIAL POLICY AFTER THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE SOVIET UNION: SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT AS LEGITIMACY OF THE REGIME AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Cuba has experienced a severe economic crisis, and the country's social policy has played an important role in showing the people a raison‐d'ětre for the revolution. This role has become even stronger in recent years, as internal and external actors demand political reforms and economic liberalization. This article first examines the Cuban government's use of social development to counter the demands for changes. It then looks at the extent that government social policy contributes economically to improving the Cuban living standard. The article demonstrates empirically how the leadership emphasizes their social accomplishments whenever demands for change come, and then shows that after the suspension of Soviet aid, Cuban social policy has been able to provide services mainly by relying on human capital and reducing quality materially because of the shortage of foreign reserves. This has limited the economic effectiveness of the services.     

从苏联新经济政策看有中国特色的社会主义制度

本文以苏联新经济政策为出发点,将有中国特色的社会主义制度与新经济政策的共同点做一些比较研究,对于我国的改革开放实践是具有相当的理论价值的。