Past Successes and New Challenges： China＇s Foreign Trade at a Turning Point

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China＇s economy has faced the adverse effects o fan export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.     

贸易自由化模式与中国的比较优势

对双边自由贸易组织的现实合理性及其过渡性分析发现,基于经济利益的考虑,亚洲的发展中国家和地区倾向于选择双边先行的自由贸易体制。要获得更大的贸易收益,中国必须积极主动融入到区域经济一体化进程。在贸易收益只取决于相对偏好和相对人口比例大小的条件下,中国和东盟建立自由贸易区符合国家战略的必然选择,同时中国应加快实施战略性贸易政策,扶植高新技术产业,促进经济结构升级,在东亚经济一体化进程中掌握先发的制度优势和技术优势。     

比较优势、贸易结构与资本积累：对Mazumdar假说适用性的检验及其扩展

Mazumdar（1996）的研究认为：当一国为资本品净进口国和消费品净出口国时,资本品的进口将导致资本品价格的下降进而引致折旧率的下降,结合Solow增长模型,折旧率的下降将促使一国投资率的上升并引致资本积累。本文运用中国数据对这一假说检验后认为：该理论只适用于小国贸易模式,对于诸如中国这样的贸易大国,比较优势决定下的贸易结构完全符合Mazumdar条件,但资本品进口和消费品出口并没有对中国资本积累起到促进作用,根本原因在于这样的贸易结构往往提高了资本品一消费品的相对甚至绝对价格,并最终恶化了中国的贸易条件,使得贸易收益并不明显。本文围绕这些这些问题进行了一定层次的论证。     

中国贸易模式对贸易利益的影响分析与外贸战略调整

20世纪90年代以来,中国的商品出口规模不断扩大,但在对外贸易迅速发展的同时出现了贸易条件恶化、贸易摩擦增多,以及比较优势升级缓慢等问题,这些问题直接影响到中国贸易利益的获取。针对这些现象,文章分析了中国当前贸易模式的几个特征以及这些特征对中国当前和未来获取贸易利益造成的不利影响,并根据分析结果提出适度控制对外贸易规模、逐渐向内需主导型经济过渡和推动比较优势升级的中国外贸战略调整政策建议。     

贸易条件变动、技术进步与产业结构效益——基于跨国面板数据的分析

本文基于技术视角,将贸易产品从不同技术层级分为5类,并采取工业技术进步率和高技术工业产品出口竞争力衡量工业产业结构效益。同时,利用15个国家1987-2008年的相关数据,实证检验了不同技术层级产品贸易条件变动对工业产业结构效益的影响。结果表明:初级产品贸易条件改善对工业产业结构效益具有负效应;而资源性产品和高技术产品贸易条件改善对工业产业结构效益具有正效应;低技术产品贸易条件改善提高了工业技术进步率却削弱高技术工业产品出口竞争力;中等技术产品贸易条件改善对发展中国家及新型工业化国家工业产业结构效益具有正效应,但削弱了发达国家高技术工业产品的出口竞争力。     

Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries

What is the effect of shocks to the terms of trade on a country's current account position? The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect predicts that an adverse shock to the terms of trade will worsen the current account balance; in contrast, the prediction of intertemporal models of the current account is dependent on the duration of the shock. This paper examines several features of the terms of trade series of five OECD countries, and the relationship between terms of trade shocks and the current account balance. Median shocks to the terms of trade are found to be highly persistent, yet with a large transitory component, and to account for only a small share of the variability of current account balances in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In contrast, terms of trade shocks are found to account for a relatively large proportion of the variability of current account balances in Australia and New Zealand.

     

China＇s FDI Net Inflow and Deterioration of Terms of Trade： Paradox and Explanation

Starting from the contradiction between China's sustained growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow and deterioration of the terms of trade, this paper analyzes the characteristics of FDI sectoral structure since the 1990. Moreover, considering the international market competitive environment, this paper gives a concrete analysis of the influence mechanism and concludes that the flowing of FDI into labor‐intensive export sectors caused the deterioration of China's terms of trade. To improve its terms of trade, China needs to direct FDI inflow into capital‐ and technology‐intensive sectors and service sectors. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

全球化时代发展中国家的贸易利益重点

传统贸易利益的取得面临全球化带来的要素流动性以及多边体制的政策约束的限制,贸易带来的技术进步和创新应成为发展中国家追求的贸易利益的重点。贸易对技术进步特别是技术扩散有重大的促进作用,而且离开了国际贸易的开放,充分利用国际技术扩散和转移促进经济增长的努力将很难取得成效。东亚新兴经济体的实践也证明了这一点。     

Discussion on the Suitability of Strategic Trade Policy in China

One theory of strategic trade policies is about the profit shifts theory by ＂harming others to benefit oneself＇. This strategic trade policy is that one country takes its losses to other countries as in ＂using neighbor＇s field as a drain＂. This kind of trade policy may suffer the resistance and vindictiveness of other countries. Under these terms of effective large-scale production, the unperfected market structure and the transition stages of its economic system, China can＇t adopt this strategic trade policy blindly.     

Fiscal policy independence in a European Monetary Union

Do plans for a monetary union in Europe call for limits on the freedom of the country members of the union to use fiscal policy? In order to provide a tentative answer, we simulate the IMF model MULTIMOD, given various shocks, in the case of a European Monetary Union consisting only of France and Germany. The results clearly indicate the possible value of allowing unfettered use of fiscal policy in both countries. The reasons lie partly in differences in the initial position of the two, partly in differences in their preferences. We also examine the change in the policy significance of the current account in the monetary union. Current account imbalances clearly cease to have the same significance in a monetary union; but they do not therefore become irrelevant.     

服务贸易高质量对经济高质量发展的影响路径

服务贸易在构建新发展格局中具有重要作用,实现服务贸易高质量发展能否推动经济高质量发展是值得深入探究的问题.基于2011-2022年的省级面板数据,在理论分析和研究假设的基础上通过实证检验考察服务贸易高质量对经济高质量发展的影响.研究发现,服务贸易高质量对经济高质量具有显著正向影响.分维度看,服务贸易高质量显著促进创新发展、协调发展、开放发展和共享发展,但对绿色发展的影响不显著;分地区看,中部地区服务贸易高质量促进经济高质量发展,而东部、西部地区的关系并不显著.利用中介效应模型探析两者影响路径时发现,服务贸易高质量通过技术创新、产业结构优化升级对经济高质量发展生成显著正向作用,而人力资本水平提升在其中的中介效应不显著.因此,应当大力推进技术创新,促进产业结构优化升级,推进高水平对外开放促进经济高质量发展.     

刍议中国对外文化贸易逆差的原因及对策

随着文化经济的发展,文化贸易在国际贸易格局中发挥着越来越重要的作用。文化产业是我国经济体系发展起步较晚的产业,面对来自国际上众多业己发展成熟的文化产业的竞争和威胁,我国文化贸易逆差的瓶颈制约作用也日益凸显。大力发展国际文化贸易,对于改善中国对外贸易结构、改变中国对外文化贸易严重逆差等方面问题,都有着不可忽视的作用和意义。     

商品房预订意向书法律问题初探

商品房预订意向书是预约合同。其效力可分为两种:一是优先性协议,预订意向人有优先承诺权;二是带未决条款的预约,当事人不仅负有诚信谈判的义务,而且必须订立商品房买卖合同。出卖人未取得商品房预售许可证明,与买受人订立的商品房预订意向书,应当认定无效,但是在起诉前取得许可证明的,可以认定有效。     

人民币升值对我国贸易条件的影响分析

以弹性分析论为基础考察人民币升值对中国贸易条件的影响,通过对我国进出口弹性的分析并结合中国实际状况说明人民币升值会改善中国的贸易条件。