Norway's liberalisation of trade and payments in the 1950s

Abstract

While historical scholarship has focused on the domestic macroeconomic adjustment to trade liberalisation of the 1950s in terms of fiscal, monetary and incomes policies, this study deals with the liberalisation itself. From the perspective of the domestic political economy it provides an account of Norway's policies towards the European trade and payments schemes. It argues that although national ambitions were constrained by multilateral European liberalisation, a successful policy mix of exploiting EPU credits, delaying import quota liberalisation and selectively raising tariffs was pursued. It also argues that the government's sympathy towards the stillborn Nordic customs union in 1954 originated in this policy mix.     

Iceland,OEEC and the trade liberalisation of the 1950s

Abstract

While Western Europe was experiencing a trade boom and adopting a more liberal economic framework during the 1950s, Iceland was moving in the opposite direction. External trade was historically at its lowest point and its external economic policy was characterized by extreme caution towards European cooperation and integration. Iceland's commitment to a more open economy and closer economic integration with Europe was at best half-hearted as her participation in the OEEC's Trade Liberalisation Program (TLP) clearly demonstrates. This article examines Iceland's external economic relations between 1945 and 1960 with particular emphasis on the TLP. It seeks to explain why Iceland, so highly dependent on strong ties with the outside world, chose to cling to protectionism longer than most Western European countries. It is argued that the external shock caused by the war, creating an artificial economy internally and the overvaluation of the krona, made adjustment to peacetime circumstances extremely difficult. The task was made harder by a public policy prioritizing on growth and investment rather than balanced macroeconomic management. Last but not least, Iceland's commercial interests were not easily reconcilable with those of the other members of the OEEC because of her special pattern of trade.     

Restructuring European union trade with central and eastern European countries

Central and eastern European countries (CEECs) participate in the European economy with trade shares of the European Union (EU) and levels of intraindustry trade comparable to peripheral EU countries. However, the opening of CEECs has induced increased specialization in EU countries, which contrasts with the development in previous decades. This partially explains the cautious approach to the eastward enlargement in the EU. Furthermore, CEECs are more similar to each other than to EU countries. The pattern of the CEECs' trade with the EU resembles that of Turkey. Trade diversion is likely to present a significant burden for countries omitted from the first wave of the enlargement.     

The Nordic Countries' Trade Liberalisation in the 1950s: An introduction

Abstract

The fall of the Soviet Union re-awoke the interest in economic regime transformation. ¹ See for instance Dornbusch, R. et al (eds.), Postwar Economic Reconstruction and the Lessons for the East Today, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press 1993. How should liberated states navigate the complex and difficult transition from state controlled bilateralism to a market-oriented multilateralism? Liberalisation and structural adjustment could happen faster than the social institutions were capable of absorbing. Transnational economic integration brings returns and efficiency, but at the same time challenges the social and political institutions on which the economic transactions are based. Liberalisation of trade, capital and payments impose considerable constraints on the democracies' governments in their pursuit of national consensus, stability and prosperity. This topic is at the core of the globalisation debate, and formulated as a trilemma between economic integration, proper public economic management and national sovereignty. ² Lawrence, S.H., Reflections on managing Global Integration, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 23, 1999, 3–18.      

Horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade between Eastern Europe and the European union

Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Between Eastern Europe and the European Union. — The share of intra-industry trade (IIT) in total trade between central and east European nations and the EU is broken down into various components. Vertical IIT is found to account for 80 to 90 percent of total IIT. Controlling for country-specific effects, it is positively associated with product differentiation, labor intensity of production, economies of scale, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Horizontal IIT is also positively correlated with FDI and product differentiation; however, a significant negative relationship is found for scale and labor intensity.     

Estimates of trade effects of Portugal's and Spain's entry to the European union

Summary The paper first analyses the consequences of the entry of the two countries to the E.U. in 1986. We find that both now trade relatively more with each other but that, while Spain's trade with the E.U. and Portugal's import from the E.U. soared, Portugal's export to the E.U. stagnated in relative terms. We try to explain this phenomenon. We also find quite a lot of trade diversion as a consequence of the entries - from Northern as well as from Southern countries. We finally try to find evidence for theories of trade: there is little to say for intra-industry trade while comparative cost theories are sometimes vindicated in their static guise.     

The internal impact of a customs union; Baden and the Zollverein

Tariffs can affect the growth of states. But how do they affect regional growth within states? Using Baden's 1836 entry into the Zollverein, the customs union of German states, I investigate the internal impact of a change in tariffs. With a new data set of regional employment data I demonstrate that the Zollverein had a substantial positive effect. Two market access effects are shown, one follows the standard market access predictions and the second triggers the direct investment by Swiss entrepreneurs in German regions close to their home base. Furthermore occupational change within the crafts sector was shifting labour towards higher taxed occupations and towards the region close to Switzerland.     

Economic integration, market size and the welfare effects of trade liberalisation

Economic Integration, Market Size and the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalisation. — This paper examines the welfare effects of regional and global integration in a model where market size matters. Regional integration leads to higher welfare in the countries of a preferential trading arrangement (PTA), but to lower welfare outside. In case the countries also decide to form a customs union (CU), both countries will experience further gains if the creation of the CU means that the average external trade barriers are raised. In turn, the outside country will in this case experience further welfare losses. If it retaliates and creates a trade war, this will lower welfare in all countries. In contrast, global integration mostly benefits both PTA countries and outside countries.     

Trade liberalisation,structural adjustment and intra-industry trade: A note

Conclusions This note reports tests of the relationship between trade liberalisation and the levels of intra-industry trade, and between levels of IIT and structural adjustment in response to trade liberalisation. It has used a new approach by focussing on the impact of changes in protection on (i) changes in IIT, and (ii) differences in structural adjustment over time in high-IIT and low-IIT sectors.     

Distribution policy under trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe: a CGE analysis

A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate theeconomy-wide and income distribution effects of transfer policiesto the poor. The model consists of seven income distributiongroups - communal farmers, resettlement farmers, unskilled workers,agricultural wage workers, skilled workers, industrial capitalistsand agricultural profit earners. The first four groups are treatedas a low income group and the last three as a high income group.Experiments to increase each of the low income groups' incomesby 5% using different sources of finance are simulated usingthe model. These are: an increase in government expenditurewithout budget balancing measures; an increase in governmenttransfers offset by a decrease in government spending elsewhere;and an increase in direct or indirect taxes. The results ofsuch experiments indicate that a policy of increasing directtaxes and increasing the government deficit in order to supportthe transfers are favourable in terms of increased incomes inthe short run. A policy of increasing indirect taxes and transferringthe revenue raised to the poor ranks last in terms of reducingincome inequalities. Finally, targeted transfers are generallybetter than universal transfers in terms of their benefits tolow income groups and in reducing income inequalities betweenthe low income and the high income groups.     

Fiscal discipline in the European monetary union

This paper explores the question of how national fiscal policies could be conducted within the European Monetary Union. The discussion touches upon this issue in relation to the theory of optimum currency areas; presents the debt sustainability issue in the context of a monetary union; examines briefly the determinants of debt dynamics; and interprets the restraints imposed on national fiscal policies by the Maastricht Treaty. The tentative conclusion is that the creation of the EMU will be associated with smaller size national government sectors.Invited Address at the Thirty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 8–15, 1994. Financial support by the Economic Research Center of the Athens University of Economics and Business is gratefully acknowledged.     

The European exchange rate mechanism and the European monetary union

Summary This article addresses two central questions related to the prospects of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe: first, is the current exchange rate mechanism viable in the transition stage to EMU or in the period to come if the EMU should be postponed? Second, is a monetary union necessary in an economically fully integrated European Union or would the current or an alternative exchange rate mechanism suffice an integrating Europe? The article reviews the arguments for and against monetary union, the history of European monetary integration, the theoretical and empirical insights into the functioning of targets zones, and the likely developments and prospects for the EMU.The author wishes to thank Martin M.G. Fase and Simon K. Kuipers for their most helpful comments on a previous version of this article.     

Breaking up a customs union: The case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919

Breaking Up a Customs Union: The Case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919. — This study has used new estimates of the gravity model to analyze the effects on European trade patterns in the mid-1920s of the break-up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and its customs union after World War I. The gravity equation has been found to explain 70 percent of the variance of the trade flows of the principal trading nations in 1924–26. Moreover, the ties between the former members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire remained stronger than any other commercial relationship in Europe. They were second only in intensity — given economic and demographic factors — to those of the British Empire.     

Corporate financing and macroeconomic volatility in the European union

This paper investigates the impact of corporate financing patterns in the European Union (EU) on macroeconomic volatility. We examine macroeconomic data for eight EU countries. We find that during the period 1990 through 2005 bank financing was positively associated with volatility in GDP, consumption and investment. On the other hand, macroeconomic volatility declined with increased dependence on market-based financing from the equity and bond markets during this period.     

Assessing the costs of European monetary union

Much has been made of the importance of asymmetric shocks in arguing against European Monetary Union (EMU). But such shocks are entirely consistent with better monetary policy under EMU. A single money represents the perfect answer to asymmetric shocks coming from currency substitution. In addition, many asymmetric shocks cannot properly be handled through monetary policy; others will not be so because of information problems; still others because of policy mistakes. Some strategic factors also favor EMU if shocks are symmetric. Finally, doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy in Europe should be kept in mind. On these numerous grounds, little weight can be assigned to criticisms of EMU based on mere asymmetry in the shocks. Distinguished Address presented at the Forty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference, Paris, France, March 12–19, 1996.