可靠性真相

产品可靠性,这是一个新的起点,无论是对于我们的杂志,还是对于绝大多数中国企业本期封面文章以"可靠性真相"为题,并无哗众取宠之意,只是想表明我们试图从跨行业、跨领域的高度,去把握可靠性工程"前世今生"的努力。因为,对于起点的准确把握,在很大程度上决定着方向与路径的选择。     

THE ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF SIMPLE LINEAR RANK STATISTICS

The concept of a simple linear rank statistic is essential in nonparametric theory. These statistics may be used for testing the null-hypothesis that all observations are independent and identically distributed against classes of alternatives indicated by the choice of regression constants and scores. Special cases are the two-sample Linear rank statistics and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient rho under the null-hypothesis of independence.
In this paper we shall give a survey of the asympotic distribution theory of simple linear rank statistics.     

FORTY YEARS OF STATISTICS AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN THE NETHERLANDS

In 1985 we commemorate the fortieth anniversary of the V"VS, the Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research. In this paper the contributions in our country during the post–war period to the theory of quantitative methods and to their applications are reviewed briefly.     

ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF ORDER STATISTICS FOR A RANDOM SAMPLE SIZE

The distributions of the life lengths of a parallel and of a series system with a random number of components have been studied in reliability theory. In this paper we obtain the distributions of the i'th order statistics and the range, assuming the sample size to be random, with a generalized negative binomial, a generalized Poisson and a generalized logarithmic series distribution. The results of Raghunandanan and Patil (1972) follow immediately from our results.     

ON THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF ORDER STATISTICS FOR A RANDOM SAMPLE SIZE*

The probability distribution of the i –th and j–th order statistics and of the range R of a sample of size n, taken from a population with probability density function f (x) have been obtained when the sample size n is a random variable N and has: (i) a generalized Poisson distribution; and (ii) a generalized negative bonimial distribution. Specific results are then obtained; (a) when f (x) is uniform over (0,1); and (b) when f(x) is exponential. All the results for N, being a Poisson, binomial and negative binomial rv follow as special cases.     

SEARCH AND VACANCY COSTS IN THE TOKYO HOUSING MARKET: ATTEMPT TO MEASURE SOCIAL COSTS OF IMPERFECT INFORMATION

The social cost of imperfect information, in terms of buyers' search costs and sellers' opportunity costs of vacancy, is estimated in the real estate market of resale condominiums in central Tokyo by using a new, comprehensive dataset of resale condominium transactions. The results suggest a substantial social cost. Specifically, if housing information were perfectly available and marketing time were null, sellers would get benefits of 22.59% of imputed net rents of their property. In addition, buyers would save 1,042,000 yen spent on search activities for one transaction, if information were perfect. This is equivalent to 13.2% of buyers' average annual income.     

STATISTICS IN THE SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

This survey paper gives an impression of the main ways in which statistics is used in disciplines such as sociology and psychology. After an introductory section 1 the negative image of social science research is discussed in section 2. Section 3 is devoted to the enormous influence of modern computing facilities. Measurement of human behaviour has its specific problems (section 4). The use of linear and log–linear models is the topic of section 5. Latent variables are a basic concept for social and behavioral scientists, both in some linear models (section 6) and in item response theory (section 7). In the next section multidimensional and optimal scaling techniques are mentioned, and a selection of other topics is the content of section 9. Some general remarks on the generalizability claim of statistical methods constitute the final section. Because of space limitations and priority considerations, the author has decided to write a paper about topics and not about individual research contributions. For this reason there is no list of references (it would take several pages) and no painful split of all Dutch authors into those mentioned and those omitted. In general the Dutch research community has made quite a few major contributions to the area discussed in this paper.     

INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS

Statistical methods are indispensable tools for management and play a key role in Total Quality Control. Statistical methods in process control, experimental design and life testing are considered. Some aspects of tecbing statistics in industry are discussed. The successful application of statistical methods very much depends on the proper collection of data. Applying and teaching experimental design is therefore strongly recommended.     

THE INDICATOR FUNCTION: A USEFUL DEVICE FOR DETERMINING CERTAIN MINIMAL SUFFICIENT STATISTICS

An elegant technique for obtaining minimal sufficient statistics in the case of families of distributions with support depending on the paramaters, is exposed.     

AN INTERPRETATION OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SECOND BATTLE OF WATERLOO

Good governance is a pre-condition for economic development. Good governance, in turn, requires peace. The second Battle of Waterloo, in Sierra Leone, showed what the West can do in this regard. A small military intervention, not hemmed in by the typical restrictions on what 'peacekeepers' can do, made a huge difference to the development prospects of the country. This has important implications for the use of external military forces as part of the overall strategy for poverty reduction in Africa.     

THE FUTURE OF THE SEABED

Increased commodity prices and improved technology have combined to increase the incentives to exploit natural resources located under the seas. However, an international seabed regime under the auspices of the United Nations presents dangers for free markets, sovereignty and security. Alternative institutional arrangements based on privatisation would produce better outcomes.