The German temporary staffing industry: growth,development, scandal and resistance

In Germany the size of the temporary agency workforce has almost doubled between 2002 and 2012 prompted by deregulation and expansion of temporary staffing agency networks. This article examines the growth of the temporary staffing industry in Germany revealing important milestones in the regulatory framework transformation. The article then explores the role of key actors in the development of temporary staffing industry in the Germany labour market, in particular the shifting positions of trade unions in relation to temporary agency work, as well as intervention from the state with re‐regulation in order to mitigate for exploitative affecting temporary agency workers. The findings highlight that while the growth of the German temporary staffing industry has been substantial, and that the state has been an active agent, it has not been without its controversies and challenges, and that features of the industry remain potential barriers for its future development. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Trade union membership and dismissals

In Germany, there is no trade union membership wage premium and a membership fee of 1% of the gross wage. Therefore, prima facie, there are strong incentives to free-ride on the benefits of trade unionism. We establish empirical evidence for a private gain from trade union membership which has hitherto not been documented: in Western Germany, union members are less likely to lose their jobs than non-members. In particular, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel we are able to show that roughly 50% of the observed raw differential in individual dismissal rates can be explained by the estimated average partial effect of union membership.     

Who's most exposed to the world trade slowdown?

• ? A new indicator of exposure to the world trade slowdown points to Asian economies like Taiwan and Korea being most exposed, but also to significant vulnerability in Germany. Better insulated from the slowdown are the less open economies, such as the US, Brazil and India.
• ? Asian economies’ exposure is greater due to their generally high export orientations and strong trade integration with China – especially significant given the escalation of US‐China trade tensions. Likewise, Germany is highly export‐oriented but is also specialised in capital goods exports, which tend to weaken most in trade downturns.
• ? The indicator used is based on factors including trade openness, export specialisation in weakening sectors and exposure to spillovers from US‐China tariffs. It explains around 40% of the pattern of economic slowdown from 2017–2019 across a sample of key economies.

     

THE INTERNATIONAL CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES: A SCEPTICAL VIEW

The international current account imbalances, whereby the USA has a vast deficit and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters, have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for financial claims. There are as likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade.     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION LEGISLATION AND THE GROWTH OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

In modern developed economies it is the service sector that generates jobs. In Anglo-Saxon economies, where employment protection legislation is low and unions comparatively weak, services account for three-quarters of income and four-fifths of jobs. Yet in France, Germany and Italy, where the reverse is true, the service sector accounts for much less of the economy in terms of income and jobs. This article shows that employment protection legislation – defended by trade unions still dominating manufacturing in continental Europe – results in higher unemployment rates and also negatively affects the growth of services.     

The effect of World Bank trade adjustment assistance on trade and growth, 1987–2004: Is the glass half full or half empty?

This paper studies the association between trade reform, growth, and trade adjustment assistance in a sample of developing countries that underwent trade reforms during 1987–2004. Our analysis explicitly differentiates between a group of countries that received trade adjustment loans from the World Bank and a non-recipient group. The results suggest that trade adjustment assistance is positively associated with economic growth after trade reform in the medium to long run. In comparison to a pre-reform period and to the non-recipient group, the recipient countries registered 0.2 percent higher growth of real GDP per capita, 5.0 percent higher import growth, and 2.5 percent higher export growth over a period of three to five years after trade reform.     

基于主成分分析法的中国外贸增长能力综合评价

本文通过构建外贸增长能力的综合评价体系,评价了中国1991-2008年我国的外贸增长能力。通过主成分分析,得到了4个主成分。通过综合得分分析,得出:我国的外贸增长能力分为两个阶段,以2001年为分界点,2001年以前我国的外贸增长能力在曲折中上升,2001年以后我国的外贸增长能力出于稳步上升的阶段,在一定程度上说明了我国的外贸增长方式是有效的和正面的。     

Introducing team working–a motor industry case study from Germany

Teamwork is seen as a key component of lean production, and often was and still is viewed as an attack on union influence in the workplace. This case study from Germany, based on its introduction in one automobile plant, shows how trade unions, works-council and management were able to create a team-concept beneficial to both sides.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances

Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure, we show that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. More precisely, while lira appreciation does not have any significant effects on Turkey’s bilateral trade balances, lira depreciation has significantly favorable effects on Turkey’s trade balance with its European partners (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Great Britain).     

World trade: Modest recovery continues

The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.     

进出口贸易对广西经济增长贡献的比较分析

本文通过对广西1978～2009年进出口贸易与经济增长的数据进行统计比较并建立分布滞后和时间序列综合模型回归分析,得出无论是出口贸易还是进口贸易都对经济增长有促进作用,并获得充分的证据支持进口贸易在推动经济增长中的重要性要胜过出口贸易的观点。通过实证研究对广西进出口贸易发展带来一些有益的启示。     

如何通过出口贸易、技术进步来促进我国经济的增长

新贸易和经济增长理论表明:技术进步是促进我国经济长期增长的关键因素,而出口贸易又是提升我国企业技术进步的重要工具。本文主要对出口贸易促进我国技术进步、过出口贸易、技术进步来促进我国经济的增长的具体途径进行了分析。     

国际贸易、技术进步和中国工业行业的生产率增长

内生增长理论认为技术进步是经济增长最为重要的助推力,推动技术进步的力量是对研发的投资和国际贸易的发展。随着经济贸易与信息技术的飞速发展,社会对国际贸易、技术进步的关注程度日渐提升。通过深入分析国际贸易与工业行业生产率之间的关系,可以有针对性地应用有效手段对国际贸易进行调整,使其可以继续带动技术的进步并促进工业行业生产率的提升。基于此,论文探究了我国国际贸易、技术进步与工业行业生产率增长的关系,阐述了国际贸易、技术进步对于工业行业生产率的真实影响。     

Ver.di and trade union revitalisation in Germany

Recent research on the fate of organised labour in western Europe has emphasised the capacity trade unions have to develop and implement revitalisation strategies as well as the fact that different trade union movements implement different strategies. In the case of Germany, trade unions have tended to defend existing mechanisms of social partnership and restructure the movement through mergers. This article argues that this approach has severe limitations given the diverse transformation of the German political economy. It presents research on the revitalisation strategies of Germany's new service sector trade union Ver.di established in 2001. The article argues that Ver.di has an awareness of the necessity of adopting new and comprehensive strategies for revitalisation, but that it is tending towards traditional strategies. This disadvantages those regions and sectors where institutions of industrial relations are not embedded.     

The impact of foreign trade issues on economic growth in some developing countries including Iran and Turkey

The issue of foreign trade and economic growth have been on the economic agenda for centuries. Foreign trade is a facilitator of goods and services exchange in the global marketplace and is an engine of economic growth in a country. Moreover, economic growth is a means to improve the output, employment opportunities, and welfare, which in turn could make a favorable impact on the positive foreign trade balance. Economic growth is also an essential component of country competitiveness in international markets. Yet, the objective of this study is to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and economic growth in some developing countries, including Iran and Turkey, by using econometrics applications (panel co-integration method and E-views software), also resting on credible national and international publications. Thus, it is estimated in the study that foreign trade has a positive impact on economic growth, resource allocation, energy and green energy consumption, human capital development, and physical capital consumption.     

运输服务贸易促进我国经济增长的实证研究

文章以当前我国运输服务贸易持续逆差这一现象为切入口。借助计量经济学的分析软件构建运输服务贸易与经济增长的计量模型,定量分析运输服务贸易与经济增长(GDP)的关系,实证结果表明运输服务贸易与经济增长有着长期的均衡关系与因果关系。     

Growth and the dynamics of trade liberalization

This paper develops a model of ongoing trade liberalization as a self-enforcing equilibrium in a game between governments. Economic growth is a critical ingredient in successful trade liberalization. But differences in national growth rates have profound differences on the sustainable tariff equilibria of the game. If international technology spillovers are not concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster growing countries will be more protectionist, setting higher tariffs and liberalizing trade at a later date. But with spillovers more concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster-growing countries may be less protectionist. Differences in growth rates lead the process of trade liberalization to be far from reciprocal. A sustainable trade liberalization may actually involve one country pursuing a unilateral policy of free trade, even though its trading partner imposes tariffs against it.     

How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?

The estimated static welfare gains from international trade are very small, on the order of one percent of GDP. The case for free trade is therefore increasingly linked to trade’s apparent positive effects on economic growth. But how large are these growth effects? The vast empirical literature has emphasized the statistical significance, not the economic significance, of the trade‐growth relationship. This survey’s re‐examination of the empirical literature focuses on the size of the relationship between trade and growth. Our survey reveals that the many empirical studies are surprisingly consistent in terms of the size of the relationship: A one percentage point increase in the growth of exports is associated with a one‐fifth percentage point increase in economic growth. Given the power of compounding, the effect of trade on growth is very important for human welfare.     

The train drivers' strike in Germany 2007–2008: warnings for the future of the German trade union movement?

The authors review the strike that took place during 2007–08 that was called by the oldest existing German trade union, the professional union of train drivers Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokführer (GDL). In so doing, the outcome of the strike is analysed, together with the dynamics of relationship between the GDL, the industrial union TRANSNET, the Gewerkschaft der Bahnbeamten und Anwärter (DBDA), the union of the civil servants employed by the German railway, and the railway company Deutsche Bahn (DB AG). These relationships are examined as paradigmatic of politics of a particularistic organisation like GDL and for politics of an encompassing organisation like TRANSNET. These relationships raise the question: would the growth of professional unions in Germany lead to an erosion of the German system of industrial relations, which currently is still relatively stable due to the predominance of encompassing industrial unions?     

中国对外贸易方式变化对经济增长影响分析

首先对我国对外贸易方式变化对经济增长影响的正负效应进行了理论分析;接着,对我国贸易方式变化与经济增长的关系进行实证了分析。分析的结论是,我国贸易方式变化对经济增长产生了负面影响;我国进出口贸易方式的变化是导致经济增长变化的格兰杰原因;而且进出口贸易方式变化产生了不同的作用,一方面我国进口贸易方式变化对经济增长产生了负面影响,另一方面出口贸易方式变化促进了经济增长。