THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

THE PROBLEM OF THE SIZE OF THE MILK INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The Paper seeks first of all to examine statistically the “desirable size” of milk production in the U. K. under the policy laid down by Government of confining the industry to a narrowly defined liquid market. A basis analysis of trends and seasonality in monthly milk output is presented demonstrating the changes in seasonality over the years and its irregular variations. An analysis of variance of liquid sales and total output between weeks in the trough months forms the basis for calculating liquid trough requirements over and above average daily sales. From the trough requirement an annual requirement is calculated from the trend analysis suggesting a need for 2,285-2,416 m. g. to satisfy the market in all circumstances. Finally, certain major assumptions of the analysis which themselves are considered topics for further research are spelt out and some consideration given to the concept of the desirable size of industry itself     

THE DEMAND FOR FERTILISER IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Among the policy alternatives for limiting fertiliser use, a tax on chemical fertiliser is administratively the easiest option. Its efficacy depends partly on the responsiveness of fertiliser demand to price changes. This paper reviews the empirical methodologies available for estimating the price elasticity of a derived demand and presents the results of several econometric models. The econometric analysis shows that the response of UK fertiliser demand to own-price changes is greater than has been assumed on the basis of programming studies of arable farms. This result establishes a necessary but not a sufficient condition for an effective fertiliser tax. The full impact of a fertiliser tax over the longer term depends on the extent to which technical change is driven by trends in relative prices.     

THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

This paper evaluates the economic worth of forestry projects in the United Kingdom by using two different public sector investment appraisal criteria; the traditional discounted cash flows and the recently-established sum of discounted consumption flows. In the latter, in view of the intergenerational distribution aspect of government projects, the conventional rules are modified, enabling the decision-maker to treat all generations, present and future, in an equitable manner. Forestry is an excellent example to highlight the issue that many public sector investment projects re-distribute income between generations. Its long gestation periods make it obvious that there is more than one generation involved in the venture. In this analysis a one hectare plantation of Sitka spruce, class 20, is considered for a single 50-year rotation. Three different interest rates, 10 per cent test rate of discount, 5 per cent required rate of return, and 3 per cent forestry target rate are used under 4 different assumptions regarding the future price of timber.     

PRICE TRANSMISSION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM YELLOW FATS MARKET IN THE PRESENCE OF IMPERFECT COMPETITION

The yellow fats sector comprises butter, margarine and a number of newer dairy-and low-fat spreads. In analysing the transmission of policy prices (e.g. the intervention price of butter) in this sector, which is characterised by concentrated processors and retailers, it is unrealistic to assume that marketing margins are competitively determined. The empirical estimates in this paper suggest that, since the mid-1980s, processors and retailers of margarine take into account the price of butter when setting margarine prices, which they can only do if they possess market power. This implies that the benefits of CAP reform (in the form of lower butter prices) may be seriously underestimated if the resulting fall in margarine prices is ignored; the increase in butter consumption would be overestimated.     

SOME FEATURES OF FARM INCOME AND STRUCTURE VARIATIONS IN REGIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Farm income trends and developments in farm structure have varied within the UK in the last decade. While Wales and Northern Ireland have similarities in form structure, agricultural production has risen to a much smaller extent, and farmers have suffered more severe net income reductions, in Scotland and Northern Ireland than in England and Wales. The net incomes of Cropping farms rose faster and, in England, have remained much higher than those of Dairy or Livestock farms. Large numbers of small farm businesses depend on beef cattle and sheep production and have limited development prospects. As most of their occupiers are unlikely to find other employment, structural problems will persist and policy adjustments are suggested to enable agriculture to contribute more to the economy in remote and depressed localities.     

基于组合模型的我国马铃薯价格预测分析

目的 马铃薯是粮菜饲多用途作物,在贫困地区农民增产增收、推进农业供给侧结构性改革和保障国家粮食安全方面发挥着重要作用。对马铃薯价格进行预测分析,对于保障马铃薯生产者利益、稳定马铃薯生产和促进马铃薯产业健康发展具有重要意义。方法 文章利用2005—2019年共15年的马铃薯批发市场价格数据,运用ARIMA预测模型、GM（1,1）预测模型和组合预测模型对2020年马铃薯批发市场价格进行预测。结果 （1）ARIMA预测模型预测精度较高,平均绝对百分比误差在10%以内,可以利用该模型对马铃薯批发市场价格价格进行预测;（2）建立的GM（1,1）预测模型预测效果较好,模型精度为1级,可运用该模型进行价格预测;（3）建立的组合模型预测效果较好,预测精度和稳定性均优于两种单一模型;（4）利用组合预测模型对2020年马铃薯批发市场价格进行预测,结果表明,在2020年马铃薯批发市场价格从高位逐渐回落。结论 2020年马铃薯批发市场价格的下滑态势会对马铃薯市场产生不利影响,马铃薯生产者应根据预测结果主动调整生产策略,控制生产规模,提前制定替代种植计划,以规避价格下滑带来的经济损失。组合预测模型能更好地发挥各单一模型的优势,使预测误差最小化,并可以提供稳定的预测性能,长期预测效果较好。预测模型应根据实际需要不断调整参数和优化模型结构,以实现精准预测。     

SUGAR PRICES AND HIGH-FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES

The main explanations of the effect of sugar prices on high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption in the United States are briefly reviewed. A formal model is presented and estimated in a reduced form for the period 1971-88. The hypothesis that sugar prices affect HFCS consumption growth is confirmed. The estimated model is used to analyse both the effect on HFCS consumption of the two peaks in sugar prices which occurred in 1976-75 and in 1980, and the effect of the protection applied to the US sugar market. The model is also used to estimate the extent to which the rapid expansion of US HFCS consumption can be attributed solely to the 1974 peak in the international sugar price.     

A REGRESSION TEST OF THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF US FARMLAND PRICES

Regression methods previously employed to study stock price movements are used to test how well the present value model under rational expectations explains farmland price movements. Based on data on farmland prices and rents (returns to landownership) covering the period 1921-89 from three agricultural regions in the United States, the empirical results reject the present value model under rational expectations. These results suggest that farmers may be well-characterised as displaying satisficing rather than profit-maximising behaviour.     

SUBSTITUTION AND THE RELATIVE SCALE OF PROTECTION: AN APPLICATION TO LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper presents, first of all, estimates of the rate of effective protection for particular livestock production activities in the United Kingdom over the period 1966–79. These estimates are used to construct a Relative Scale of Protection. Secondly, the sensitivity of the calculated rates and the Relative Scale to the incorporation of non-zero substitution elasticities in the formula for effective protection is examined. The results suggest that the Relative Scale is comparatively unaffected by substitution. It may be concluded that the rate of effective protection remains a useful concept for the empirical analysis of agricultural protection.     

THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM — A COMMENT

The application of Kula's sum of discounted consumption flows method to forestry investment gives a more favourable result than NPV, but leads to some curious consequences. In particular, the immediate future generation may not be provided with a timber resource by the present generation, while being expected to provide such a resource for its own successors. The method does not in fact treat future generations equitably: downward revision of the social discount rate, possibly to zero, is a better means of achieving this objective.     

AGGREGATE DEMAND FOR NITROGENOUS FERTILISER IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: ANOTHER LOOK*

Economic theory must be subjected to continuous empirical testing and verification. Consequently any econometric model proposed may be re-tested and modified in the light of imporved data availability and additional observations generated by the real world. This paper re-examines U.D. aggregate demand for nitrogen: after otaining a meaningful data series for the price of nitrogen it is found that earlier functions fitted do not now stand up to the passage of time. Alternarte hypotheses are then put forward.     

RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY AMONG AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper develops measures of relative price variability among agricultural commodities in the UK farm sector for the period 1956-88. Econometric tests of the hypothesis that relative price variability is positively correlated with instability in the macroeconomy are carried out. The results indicate that UK agricultural commodity prices become more volatile relative to one another when the economy-wide inflation rate increases and when aggregate output becomes more variable. These findings suggest that UK producers and consumers of domestically grown farm products experience increased risk and uncertainty in their production and consumption decisions during periods of macroeconomic instability. The effects of UK entry into the European Community are also examined; no evidence is found to suggest that adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy reduced year-to-year relative price variability among agricultural commodities.     

A NEW STUDY OF UNITED KINGDOM CEREAL SUPPLY

This paper reports on an analysis designed to build and empirically test a model to explain the movements of U.K. cereal acreages in the post-1954 period. It is acknowledged that the results presented are a preliminary step in obtaining a fully acceptable model of U.K. cereal supply. Nevertheless, they do display a number of interesting and important features, especially with respect to the technical interactions between different cereals.