WOOL IN 1980*

Since the introduction of a reserve price scheme in 1970, the interest in wool marketing previously shown by agricultural economists has not been maintained outside the public service and the wool industry itself. Nor is the subject as divisive amongst wool growers with, in general, 'orderly marketing' now acceptable to all factions of wool growers. The history of wool marketing discussion in Australia is reviewed and some reasons for this changing climate of opinion are discussed. An attempt is made to assess the actual performance of the buffer stock scheme in the light of the academic literature of the 1960s.     

WOOL PRICE STABILISATION AND PROFIT RISK FOR WOOL USERS

It has often been suggested that more stable wool prices would lead to an outward shift in the long-run demand for wool. To assess this claim it is necessary to examine different sources of risk and instability in wool prices and their impact on the risk borne by wool users. A model is presented in which the input and output decisions of a wool processor are related to interactions between the wool and yarn markets. It is concluded that, if fluctuations in final demand or exchange rates are the major sources of instability, the long-run effect of stabilising prices is to increase the risk faced by wool users and reduce that faced by wool growers.     

THE RETURNS TO INVESTMENT IN RESEARCH ON AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRODUCTION*

A production function approach is used to estimate growth in farm productivity in the Australian wool industry from an estimated level of expenditure on wool production R & D. A market equilibrium model of the wool industry is then used to measure the share of total benefits from this productivity growth accruing to Australia and its wool growers. A net return is estimated after allowing for lags in the development and adoption of technology.     

SOME CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH PRICE STABILIZATION BY THE WOOL COMMISSION REDUCES INCOMES*

Stabilization of wool prices (which is partially achieved by the Wool Commission) may reduce the average annual net income (surplus) of growers and also of manufacturers of wool. The argument that the surplus of growers may be reduced is based upon Massell's extension of Oi's hypothesis. The possibility of falls in the surplus of manufacturers if wool prices are stabilized has a different basis. If wool prices are stabilized by buffer stocks, manufacturers find that their supplies are more variable than in the absence of controls. Consequently, they experience greater average annual cost if their marginal operating costs are increasing. Unless there are substantial revenue gains to processors, their surplus falls. The argument is also applicable to buffer stock schemes for other primary products.     

OPTIMAL WOOL FLOWS FOR MINIMIZATION OF TRANSPORT COSTS*

Movements of wool from grower to wool store in Queensland, N.S.W., Victoria, and South Australia are affected by differing State legislation and Section 92 of the Australian Constitution. Taking various arrangements within each State into account, average wool transport costs from wool production areas to selling centres are found. A linear programming technique is then applied to produce an optimal pattern of wool flows minimizing transport costs for all growers.     

互联网使用对专业苹果种植户农地转入的影响研究 ——基于信息搜寻、社会资本和信贷获得中介效应视角

研究目的：从信息技术使用视角探究互联网使用对专业苹果种植户农地转入的影响及其机制,进而探索互联网能否成为激活农地流转市场的重要媒介。研究方法：内生转换Probit模型和中介效应模型。研究结果：（1）互联网使用对专业苹果种植户农地转入具有显著正向影响。基于反事实假设,使用互联网的专业苹果种植户若未使用互联网,其农地转入概率下降17.6%。（2）互联网使用主要通过提高信息搜寻能力、增加社会资本、提升信贷获得水平三条路径影响专业苹果种植户农地转入。（3）互联网使用对低收入组和自有地面积为小规模的专业苹果种植户的农地转入作用更大。研究结论：要重视以互联网为代表的信息技术对农地流转的促进作用,不断提升农村地区的互联网覆盖率,加快农地流转市场化进程。     

Valuing quality attributes of Australian merino wool

We measure the relationship between clean prices of individual lots of wool sold at auction and a range of characteristics of the raw wool. Based on the data for 111,440 fleece lots sold in the 2008–2009 auction season, five hedonic models are estimated to determine the premiums and discounts associated with each wool characteristic in five micron categories. Several wool characteristics exhibited significant nonlinear relationships, and therefore, joint density functions were assessed where appropriate. The results indicate that fibre diameter has the greatest influence on price in all markets. Brand contamination, higher levels of unscourable colour and vegetable matter contamination were found to negatively influence price.     

市场化程度对花卉产业组织影响实证分析

以刘易斯市场规模分析框架为基础,采用2008—2014年中国各省区市花卉产业的面板数据,对市场化进程与花卉产业组织的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:市场化程度对企业数量、小企业数量和小企业比例具有正向影响作用,市场化是促进花卉产业组织演化的重要因素,有利于优化花卉产业组织的规模和结构。因此,政府应该从市场组织与制度完善角度维护好市场竞争秩序,企业应该提升核心竞争力而不是简单扩大规模。     

干部经历会影响农户选择电商销售渠道吗?——基于荔枝种植户的实证分析

基于印记理论,选取2020年广东和广西两省荔枝主产区的964户种植户作为调研对象,运用logit模型进行实证分析,探索干部经历对农户选择电商销售渠道的影响。结果显示:干部经历对荔枝种植户采用电商销售具有显著的正向影响,而农户自身具有的销售渠道资源也是荔枝种植户选择电商销售的动力之一,其与干部经历带有的政治资本共同推动种植户选择电商销售。因此,要发挥具有干部经历的农户在农产品电商发展中的带头人作用,培育当地的销售服务团队与提供更多的销售渠道资源,并联合社会多方力量加大对农产品电商销售的培训力度。     

PEST CONTROL DECISION MAKING: SUGAR BEET IN ENGLAND

This paper discusses approaches to the problem of pest control decision making. A farmer's pest control decisions are shown to depend on his subjective perception of the pest hazard, the controls he recognises as available to him, his subjective estimate of their net effect, and his individual decision rule or goal. A case study is discussed in which a decision model is used to compare objective pest observation with subjective perceptions of sugar beet growers. Applications of such a model for improving pest control decisions are suggested.     

The costs of global tariff barriers on wool products: 1997–2005

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations commits World Trade Organization (WTO) members to improving market access for both agricultural and nonagricultural goods. Tariff barriers on wool products represent a small but important subset of these negotiations. To inform the debate on the round, we analyze the distortionary effects of recent (1997–2005) tariff barriers on wool products using a model that applies a comprehensive analytical approach with regard to the production, trade, and consumption of wool products. We also account for any indirect effects of wool tariff barriers on the nonwool economy by incorporating the production, trade, and consumption of nonwool products, that is, the framework is a comparative‐static global general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the world wool market. Changes in wool tariffs over 1997–2005 lead to positive welfare effects for most regions; Italy, China, and the UK are estimated to have gained the most from the changes. The results indicate that the nature of recent wool tariffs severely distort the size of wool industries in different regions. The changes in the output of wool commodities are extreme reflecting the discriminatory nature of the tariffs.     

参与电商会促进猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳吗?——基于倾向得分匹配的反事实估计

本文利用陕西、四川两省686户猕猴桃种植户的调查数据,在采用变异系数法度量猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳程度的基础上,利用倾向得分匹配法构建反事实框架,实证分析参与电商对猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳的影响效应。结果表明:猕猴桃种植户绿色生产子技术的重要性依次为测土配方施肥技术、物理防治技术、套袋技术、无公害农药使用技术、有机肥施用技术;在控制样本选择偏差后,参与电商对猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳有显著的正向影响;参与电商对不同资本禀赋的猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳的促进效应存在差异;参与电商通过提升产品价格预期、提升经济收益水平、提升信息获取能力、追求正向社会评价四条路径来影响猕猴桃种植户的绿色生产技术采纳。     

The impact of geographic reputation on the value created in Champagne

With asymmetric information, consumers need to rely on the reputation of wine to define quality before the purchasing. Amongst the tools available for underlining reputation, geographic location is considered to offer high potential. Today, some wines benefit from a country's reputation, some from the renown of a region and some from the local reputation of one specific vineyard, whilst conversely some providers suffer from a weak geographic reputation. There can be a split between producers within one vineyard or region based on varying geographic reputation. This kind of split appears in Champagne, with a range of well‐known and less well‐known brands and is particularly significant to the small growers who sell wine. This study used a representative sample of these growers to examine how their location impacts on their reputation. The results show that their selling price is influenced by the local system of grading vineyard quality, their distance from traditional regional centres and the presence in their village of growers cited in a national guide.     

THE MERINO EXPORT EMBARGO — A COMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSIS

The genetic changes which would occur in overseas flocks as a result of the export of merino rams from Australia are unknown. Even so, Australia recently relaxed the merino export embargo and may go further. A comparative static model is presented to assess changes in annual wool income resulting from increases in the supply of apparel wool emanating from possible levels of the genetic effect.     

An Evaluation of the Compensation Required by European Union Cereal Growers to Accept the Removal of Price Support

Motivated by the policy trend of exposing European Union farmers to more market risk by reducing price support, this paper evaluates the compensation required by EU cereal growers to accept the complete removal of price support. Additional considerations are whether this policy change also includes the removal of set‐aside, or features only a partial removal of price support. A model is developed which captures the main on‐ and off‐farm factors influencing grower perceptions of the impact of this policy change. This model is subjected to a numerical analysis which shows that divergent assessments of the expected profitability of releasing to production land previously set‐aside mean growers are unlikely to agree whether compensation is even required. It is concluded that the retention of set‐aside for environmental purposes is likely to mean growers are more united in their perception of the need for, and amount of, compensation to accept the removal of price support.     

水稻规模种植户持续种植意愿影响因素研究

[目的]水稻规模种植户在稳定水稻种植面积中起到关键性的作用,如何扶持和稳定规模种植户的持续种植粮食具有十分重要的战略意义。[方法]文章利用浙江省145户水稻规模种植户的调研数据,采用二元Logistic模型对水稻规模种植户的持续种植意愿进行了实证分析。[结果]单位面积平均土地租金和粮食生产总投入对持续种植意愿呈反向影响,粮食销售收入和田地质量提升的投入对持续种植意愿呈正向影响。高额的土地租金和不断增长的粮食生产投入,使得粮食生产收益不断下降,特别是对于具有一定规模的种植户而言,不得不选择消极的种植意愿;与此同时,较高的销售收入能带来较高的生产收益,使得规模种植户更愿意继续种植,而田地质量提升能带来较高的产出率,规模种植户对持续种植也将更有信心。[结论]据此提出降低水稻种植成本、稳定粮农正常收益、规范土地市场、引导农户提高田地投入等政策建议来稳定和激励水稻规模种植户持续种植,保障国家粮食安全。     

A NOTE ON DECREASING ABSOLUTE RISK AVERSION AMONG FARMERS IN NEPAL

Attitudes toward risk are explored for a sample of rice growers on small farms in Nepal, in the context of the subjective expected utility maximisation model. Farmers are found to be generally averse to risk, with diverse levels of absolute risk aversion that tend to diminish as wealth increases, both for individuals and in a cross-sectional sense. Relative risk aversion is argued to be the most comparable measure for contrasts of attitudes toward risk.     

The importance of ecological and socio-technological literacy in R&D priority setting: the case of a fruit innovation system in Guinea,West Africa

The introduction of farmer participatory approaches over the past decades has to some extent improved the relevance and uptake of research results. While R&D prioritization increasingly involves more stakeholders, including the private sector, policymakers and civil society, building ecological literacy among all stakeholders is urgent, especially for sustainable agricultural development. A case study of an emerging fruit innovation system in Guinea, West Africa, highlights the challenges of supply- and demand-driven approaches to R&D prioritization. Shallow ecological knowledge and a blind faith in ‘modern’ technologies by scientists and farmers alike distort prioritization. Locally available, appropriate technologies are dismissed in favour of high technologies that are inaccessible to most smallholder growers. Strengthening the ecological literacy of all stakeholders may help to overcome this bias. On the other hand, building socio-technological literacy would allow innovation intermediaries, who typically act as brokers between the demand- and supply-side of technologies, to better understand the social and institutional contexts of technologies and how these affect potential uptake by poor farmers. Member centres of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) could use the notion of ecological and socio-technological literacy to better understand supply and demand of technology and to work more effectively with their partners towards pro-poor and sustainable agricultural development.     

Risk, uncertainty, and learning in adoption of a crop innovation

Risk and uncertainty have often been suggested as causes of poor adoption of rural innovations, but empirical evidence has been scarce. This study focuses on a new crop‐type, chickpeas, in Western Australia to gather such evidence. The empirical models developed are based on a theoretical framework that conceptualizes adoption as a dynamic decision process involving information acquisition and learning‐by‐doing by growers who vary in their managerial abilities, risk preferences, and their perceptions of the profitability and riskiness of the innovation. Learning encompasses improvements in skill as well as reductions in uncertainty. An annual face‐to‐face survey of over 100 farmers was conducted over 3 years, eliciting the farmers' risk attitudes and their subjective distributions of yields and prices. Two limited dependent variable models, Tobit and Probit, are used to estimate the empirical model. There is a high degree of goodness‐of‐fit for both models. The study provides strong empirical support for the primarily economic character of the adoption decision, and highlight the importance of economic risk in the process. The two risk‐related factors with greatest impact on the adoption decision were risk aversion and relative riskiness of the innovation. Risk aversion tended to reduce adoption, and to do so to a greater extent as relative riskiness and scale increased. Results also reveal the key role that trialing of the innovation plays in adoption.     

RISK,UTILITY AND STOCKING RATE*

A simple utility-based model of risky wool production is presented. Evaluation of the model indicates the effect on optimal stocking rate of changes in the degree of risk aversion, farm area, variable cost, fixed cost, wool cut, wool price, variance of wool price, climatic variability and tax rate. It is shown that the utility hypothesis implies a lower optimal stocking rate than does expected profit maximization and hence implies a discrepancy between private and public optimal resource use which it is suggested, might be mitigated by a progressive bounty on wool production.