家庭生命周期对农村劳动力转移的影响分析

本文以2007年福建省农村家庭及其劳动力外出务工情况的调查资料为基础,论述了家庭生命周期对农村劳动力转移的影响。研究发现,家庭生命周期对农村家庭劳动力外出务工有显著的影响,年轻夫妇家庭劳动力外出务工的概率较高,成长中的核心随着家庭户主的年龄逐步增大,家庭劳动力外出务工的几率在减少。对于成熟的核心家庭,子女已经成为劳动力,子女外出务工的几率增大,因而整个家庭劳动力外出务工的概率又增大,而扩大家庭正好处于两者之间。     

Wind power planning in France (Aveyron), from state regulation to local planning

The development of wind energy in France presents an exemplary case of contrast between the policy instrument and its effectiveness in terms of installed wind power capacity. After 7 years of one of the highest feed-in tariffs in the world, the installed capacity in France is still very low. This is notably due to a diffuse pattern of administrative landscape protection which impacts on the construction of wind power potential. In turn, the pace of wind power development can be understood only by looking in more detail at the way in which landscape is dealt with in local planning processes. This paper examines the question using the case of Aveyron in southern France. We follow the shifting ways in which landscape is enrolled in wind power planning, in a context where new planning instruments favor an incipient decentralization in wind power policy. The case points to a change in both the networks and the concepts involved in the design of landscape representations that underlie the construction of wind power potential. We show that this change has been forced by the far-reaching and decentralized visual impacts of wind power technology, suggesting that technology is recomposing the social as part of its development process and questioning the very meaning and perception that is given to landscape.     

Wind power planning in France (Aveyron), from state regulation to local planning [Erratum,paper published in Land Use Policy 26 (2009) 744–754]

The development of wind energy in France presents an exemplary case of contrast between the policy instrument and its effectiveness in terms of installed wind power capacity. After 7 years of one of the highest feed-in tariffs in the world, the installed capacity in France is still very low. This is notably due to a diffuse pattern of administrative landscape protection which impacts on the construction of wind power potential. In turn, the pace of wind power development can be understood only by looking in more detail at the way in which landscape is dealt with in local planning processes. This paper examines the question using the case of Aveyron in southern France. We follow the shifting ways in which landscape is enrolled in wind power planning, in a context where new planning instruments favor an incipient decentralization in wind power policy. The case points to a change in both the networks and the concepts involved in the design of landscape representations that underlie the construction of wind power potential. We show that this change has been forced by the far-reaching and decentralized visual impacts of wind power technology, suggesting that technology is recomposing the social as part of its development process and questioning the very meaning and perception that is given to landscape.     

公办学校流动人口子女的身份认同及其影响因素

本文根据抽样调查的结果,分析探讨公办学校流动人口子女的身份认同及其影响因素。研究发现,公办学校流动人口子女的身份认同处于模糊状态。回归分析结果表明,性别、年级、对家乡学校的怀念程度、传媒接触、社会排斥感、社会剥夺感和社会差异感等对其身份认同有显著的影响。     

土地整治社会评价内涵、原则及框架方法

研究目的:讨论土地整治社会评价的内涵、原则、内容、方法和步骤等。研究方法:文献法、专家法。研究结果:土地整治社会评价是应用社会学相关理论和社会科学的调查研究方法,分析土地整治已经产生和将要产生的社会影响,分析项目与社区相互适应性和社区的接受程度,发现已经实施的项目或将要实施的项目过程中可能出现的社会问题和社会风险,并提出针对性的项目建议,保证项目的顺利实施和可持续性。研究结论:土地整治社会评价是进行项目普及、公众参与、引导利益相关者建立参与协商机制的过程。引入土地整治社会评价可以全面评价土地整治产生的经济、社会和生态效益;提高公众认可,突出土地整治的公共性和公益性;实现土地整治效益的可持续性,促进社会和谐发展。     

Good debts,bad debts: Microcredit and managing debt in rural south India

This paper engages with debates around microcredit, once a development success story, but now much critiqued. Arguing that microcredit can only be understood within the wider context of debt, we draw on ethnographic material from two villages in Tamil Nadu, to examine how microcredit through self‐help groups sits within a broader context of indebtedness among the rural labouring classes. We describe patterns and sources of borrowing among the poor, the ways in which debts are managed, negotiated and settled within households and the ways in which the management of debt is mediated by gender, caste, class and aspiration. The paper calls for a more nuanced understanding of debt: some debts are seen as ‘good’ and others as ‘bad’. We explore the ways in which microcredit, channelled through self‐help groups, is—against much contemporary criticism—perceived by women borrowers in our study villages as a source of ‘good debt’ and praised as an enabling factor in their everyday household management as well as in aspirations for mobility and development. We also argue that microcredit can have positive impacts by enabling social investments that enhance status and reduce dependency.     

淮安枢纽工程社会影响后评价

在社会后评价理论研究的基础上,结合淮安枢纽工程的特点设置了工程社会影响后评价的评价指标,分析流域经济发展、项目区社会环境、项目区自然资源环境、项目对特殊群体的影响等,并对该项目建成后项目区的社会影响进行了事后评价。     

基于手机信令对农民工返乡入乡创业园的监测分析

目的 2020年11月农业农村部等7部门联合印发《关于推进返乡入乡创业园建设 提升农村创业创新水平的意见》。指出到2025年在全国县域建设1 500个返乡入乡创业园。文章介绍了对返乡入乡创业园进行选址评估、日常监管以及人群分析等,为政府部门对调控创业产业链生态,扶持创业园发展提供数据支撑。方法 利用手机信令大数据、时空大数据、人群画像、人工智能等技术,基于人口时空流动及劳动力迁徙模型,并通过全量外推专利算法,对全国人口迁徙轨迹、地理位置信息等大数据进行监测分析。结果 通过对返乡入乡创业园及县域人口情况进行常态化监测,分析可得出创业园就业规模、工作量、就业群体、就业人员来源地等信息。结论 返乡入乡创业园是引导更多农民返乡创业创新,带动农民就业增收,助力乡村全面振兴的重要抓手,运用手机信令大数据对园区所在县域的人口迁徙轨迹进行动态监测,对返乡入乡创业园的选址、人才的吸纳、带动就业的岗位数量情况以及对当地县域经济的影响的分析都具有重要参考价值。     

男内女外：农村“留守丈夫”的生成原因、类型与后果——基于晋南符册村的调查

进入21世纪以来,农村"留守丈夫"的身影在学术界长期缺场。本文晋南符册村的案例研究试图呈现当前农村"留守丈夫"的留守类型和家庭处境,并揭示其背后的生成机制和社会结构变迁。研究发现:中国农村夫妻外出还是留守的问题,取决于农村市场化进程中家庭生计两性分工的比较优势及其家庭发展模式。农村"留守丈夫"家庭的主要特征是"夫守妇出",这一家庭发展模式建立在"市场——家庭——个体"三个维度互动的基础上,由此可以将"留守丈夫"群体类型学分为城市市场挤压型、故乡生计吸纳型与家庭发展周期型。强势面具下的"留守丈夫"受到故土情怀、子女教育、家庭养老的慰藉和羁绊,而长期夫妇分离极易引发婚姻破裂和亲子关系失衡。随着中国第三产业的发展,将会出现一股农村"留守丈夫"家庭的亚文化,而对当前中国农村留守问题的学术审视需要回归到"家庭"的整体性视野,从中寻找中国社会活力的微观基础。     

基于模糊理论的条子泥围垦项目社会评价分析

我国土地供给是有限的,现有耕地又因各种占用锐减,因此迫切需要增加耕地,保证"占补平衡"。沿海滩涂是得天独厚的土地资源,围垦是江苏省增加耕地的有效途径,对缓解江苏用地日益紧缺的矛盾,推动沿海经济发展具有重要作用。用模糊理论对条子泥围垦项目进行社会效益分析,从养殖收益、农业生态收益等方面分析该项目的社会总效益。量化分析各因素对条子泥项目的影响,并从理论方面分析条子泥建设对东台市的巨大影响,从而得出条子泥围垦项目的建设社会效益巨大的结论。     

Disability and social protection programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

This paper systematically reviews the evidence on whether persons with disabilities in low- and middle-income countries are adequately included in social protection programmes, and assesses the financial and non-financial impacts of participation. Overall, we found that access to social protection appears to fall far below need. Benefits from participation are mostly limited to maintaining minimum living standards and do not appear to fulfil the potential of long-term individual and societal social and economic development. However, the most notable finding of this review is that there is a dearth of high-quality, robust evidence in this area, indicating a need for further research.     

The economics of drought: A review of impacts and costs

Although a growing body of literature studies drought impacts, papers providing a comprehensive review of drought's social and economic impacts are scarce. This paper fills this gap by exploring the consequences of drought on societies based on research findings in Australia—a large country used to experiencing severe droughts. To do this, we propose a framework to categorise drought impacts in three dimensions: individuals/households (including health), productive sectors and system (including economic and ecosystem) impacts. The framework then guides a systematic literature review and discussion of studies looking at diverse drought impacts and their related costs. By analysing and discussing the findings from this literature, we emphasise different policy considerations, empirical challenges and research needs to support robust analysis and estimates of the true cost of droughts. We conclude by proposing an expanded framework to identify drought impacts and a discussion of the implications of the review for policy development.     

晋北戏曲文化特征及其旅游开发分析

山西是戏曲文化之乡,大小戏种共有50多种,约占全国六分之一。晋北地区的戏曲有10多种。晋北戏曲在特定的地域环境下形成和发展,从文化地理学的视角研究可知,晋北地区的戏曲分为六大文化区。晋北戏曲文化经过迁移扩散、扩展扩散和文化整合形成了晋北戏曲文化景观,该文化的形成与发展与晋北的地理环境有着密切的关系。晋北应加大对戏曲文化资源的保护力度,树立"戏曲之乡"的旅游形象,将戏曲旅游资源与晋北其他旅游资源,着力建设戏曲文化主题公园,为晋北戏曲文化开发和保护提供理论基础。     

基于粮食安全、经济发展和生态友好的土地规划环境影响评价——以太原市为例

本文以太原市为实证研究对象,探讨土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的定量化分析方法。文章首先按照土地的基本功能将其划分为耕地、建设用地、生态用地三大类型。接着从粮食安全、经济发展和生态友好角度分析土地利用规划方案对社会、经济和生态环境可能造成的影响,进而评价规划方案各类用地规模的合理性,为方案决策提供科学依据。研究结果表明,太原市土地利用规划方案有利于保障粮食安全、促进经济发展方式转变和建设生态友好型社会,实现社会、经济、生态环境的协调发展,因此规划方案从环境保护角度可行。     

关于加快偿还生态欠债的几点思考

我国当前生态形势十分严峻,生态赤字触目惊心,偿还生产欠债代价巨大。其对经济社会发展的影响:直接关系到经济社会的可持发展;严重影响到三农问题的解决难度;增加了社会不稳定因素和和谐社会的构建。造成生态欠债的根源:非理性的发展观念;粗放落后的经济增长。通过全面分析,提出了增强社会偿还意识、强化公共财政支持、减少或杜绝新的生态欠账、加大生态补偿力度等方面的改革建议。     

1999～2015年沈阳市建设用地规模扩张影响因素研究

[目的]通过分析沈阳市社会经济发展特征,将1999~2015年按照经济社会发展速度的不同划分为1999~2003年、2004~2009年和2010~2015年3个时间阶段,并从人口、耕地、产业和宏观经济等4个方面确定10个指标研究其对沈阳市建设用地扩展的影响,深入分析沈阳市建设用地规模扩张驱动力的作用机理及扩张的特点,为沈阳市制定合理的土地调控政策提供科学依据.[方法]运用灰色关联度分析法,选取地区生产总值等10个影响因素,分别计算了沈阳市3个尺度上各社会经济因素与建设用地规模扩张的关联程度,分析各因素对3个时间尺度上沈阳市建设用地扩张的影响,以及各因素影响的作用机理.[结果]1999年以来人口与城市化、耕地、产业、宏观经济等方面因素都对沈阳市建设用地扩张形成了重要影响.其中,人口增长与城市化发展是影响沈阳市建设用地扩张的最主要因素,但2010年以后影响作用明显减弱;产业因素对沈阳市建设用地扩张的影响仅次于人口与城市化,并于2010年以后成为首要影响因素;由于保护力度的不断加强和后备资源的日渐匮乏,建设用地扩张对耕地的占用呈减少趋势;宏观经济对建设用地扩张的影响弱于以上3方面因素.2010年以后,由于城市化进入全面发展阶段、经济发展逐渐进入新常态以及"后全运时代"的影响,产业因素影响作用明显加强,其他因素不同程度有所减弱,且预计这种趋势未来仍将持续一段时间.[结论]为更好地发挥老工业基地振兴中土地要素的保障作用,促进新常态下城市产业转型升级,下一步沈阳市要严格执行土地使用标准,提高土地城镇化质量;合理优化城市发展空间,科学划定"三线";挖掘存量用地潜力,拓展建设用地扩张新空间;此外还要做好建设用地集约研究.     

湖北农业资源劣势的认识与对策

湖北省自然资源的种类丰富、储量大,素有"千湖之省,鱼米之乡"的美誉,然而,湖北省农业资源也存在诸多劣势与不足,除水土等自然资源外,湖北省的生产力、科技水平、农业基础设施等社会经济资源均存在着不足之处,本文系统、客观地分析了现阶段湖北省农业发展中社会、经济、自然资源的劣势,并提出了一系列变劣势为优势的措施.     

Assessing the trade‐offs of increased mining activity in the Surat Basin,Queensland: preferences of Brisbane residents using nonmarket valuation techniques

The mining boom in Australia since 2003 has produced significant economic benefits for regional, State and National economies, creating new job opportunities and revenue flows. Despite the contribution of the resources sector to economic growth, questions are frequently raised about the concomitant negative social, economic and environmental impacts. The Surat Basin in southern Queensland is a traditional agricultural region with a small but growing coal mining sector and a rapidly developing liquefied natural gas industry (mainly associated with extracting coal seam gas). In this paper, the preferences of residents in Brisbane, the State capital, are explored in relation to the relative importance of social, economic and environmental impacts of the resource boom in the Surat Basin. A choice modelling experiment was conducted to assess the trade‐offs Brisbane residents would make (in monetary terms) between the economic benefits and the associated costs of increased mining activity on local communities. The results identify the strength of concerns about community and environmental impacts and can potentially be used to help evaluate the net benefits of resource development.     

African Perspectives on China–Africa: Modelling Popular Perceptions and their Economic and Political Determinants

China's recent political and economic inroads into Africa have generated much interest in the current literature, with scholars and policymakers endeavouring to assess the merits and risks implicit in this renewed engagement. Absent from the literature, however, are systematic analyses of African perceptions of these rapidly growing China–Africa links, and what determines these perceptions. This article fills this void by examining not only African attitudes towards China's African presence, but also investigating the considerations that inform these views. Using multi-level modelling techniques, this article estimates the effects of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), Sino-African trade and notions of democracy and human rights on African attitudes towards “China-in-Africa”. The results suggest that Africans' views of China are nearly equivalent to those that they hold vis-à-vis Western countries. The perceived impact of imports from China has a negative effect. However, this effect is counter-balanced by perceptions of China's impact on poverty alleviation—in line with its greater focus on economic, social and cultural, as opposed to civic and political human rights—in particular through FDI. Among those who value civic and political human rights, in contrast, attitudes towards China are less favourable. This finding is echoed with respect to democratic governance, though the effect is less stable. The results are derived from Afrobarometer data covering 20 African countries.     

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Coastal zones with their natural and societal sub-systems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social preferences and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decision-making on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multi-functional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.