企业对外直接投资的风险分析

大力促进企业对外直接投资是新时期中国对外开放的重要方面。正确认识对外直接投资所面临的各种风险是中国企业对外直接投资决策的核心问题。本文就企业对外直接投资风险的内涵、类型与影响因素进行了系统分析,然后根据中国的实际情况,提出中国企业对外直接投资风险的规避措施与政策建议。     

中国企业对外直接投资风险分析及防范措施

随着中国企业对外直接投资的不断增长,投资风险引起人们的广泛关注。本文认为,中国企业对外投资风险因素很多,如政治、金融、技术、文化、经营、管理等方面都存在风险。建立对外投资风险管理体系,将风险意识渗透到企业对外经营的各个环节,力求形成良好的风险控制环境。对中国企业对外直接投资风险问题进行了详细分析,并提出了科学的治理措施。     

中国对外直接投资中的政治风险及其防范机制研究

随着中国对外直接投资持续增长,中国企业在"走出去"的过程中也遇到重重困难和问题,政治风险已经成为国内企业对外直接投资过程中面对的最为重要的外部问题。在新时期如何深化企业对政治风险的认识、加强政治风险防范机制的研究成为需要深入研究的课题。本文通过分析中国对外直接投资过程中遭遇的政治风险类型,探讨了政治风险产生的原因,并提出了中国企业对外投资规避政治风险的对策措施。     

日本对外直接投资风险防控对中国的启示

近年来中国对外直接投资发展迅猛,在世界范围内广泛投资,同时也频频遭遇风险,预防和化解风险成为一项非常迫切的任务。借鉴他国的对外直接投资风险防控经验是非常必要的。二战后,日本采取了多种有效的预防风险措施,对外直接投资实现高速增长的同时,风险得到有效控制。本文在分析日本对外直接投资风险防控经验的基础上,提出了中国企业应采取的防控风险措施。     

国家风险视角下中国对外直接投资的地区分布特点

中国对外直接投资的四分之三流入我国香港地区、开曼群岛和英属维尔京群岛,进而使得上述三个地区所在的亚洲和拉丁美洲成为中国对外直接投资最集中的区域。然而,由于我国香港地区、开曼群岛和英属维尔京群岛国际避税港的地位,使得在这些地区直接投资的国家风险可以忽略不计。因此,国家风险视角下,中国对外直接投资的最集中区域应为亚洲、非洲和欧洲。     

浅议我国企业对外直接投资的风险控制

我国对外直接投资已经达到了一定规模，截至2005年底，我国累计对外直接投资近500亿美元。为保证我国对外直接投资平稳发展，在实施中国企业“走出去”战略过程中，需要关注商业性风险、管理风险、政治性风险等。     

对外直接投资的风险控制及退出

近年来,随着中国经济实力的增强,中国企业对外直接投资的规模不断提高。与在国内投资相比,对外直接投资能获得更高收益,但也存在更高的风险。中国企业在做出对外直接投资的决策之前,应对所面临的风险提前做好防范,并且在保证收益最大化的前提下选择合适的时机退出。     

东道国风险、自然资源与国有企业对外直接投资

本文利用2005—2015年"中国全球投资追踪"数据库与万德金融数据库的匹配数据,研究东道国风险水平、东道国自然资源水平及二者交互项如何影响中国国有企业的对外直接投资行为。结果表明:国有企业的对外直接投资额与东道国的风险水平呈正相关,即国有企业的对外直接投资具有"风险偏好"特征;国有企业的对外直接投资额与东道国的自然资源呈正相关,即国有企业的对外直接投资具有"自然资源偏好"特征;东道国的风险水平与自然资源禀赋虚拟变量的交互项系数为负,说明风险和自然资源之间存在替代效应;当国有企业同时面对这两个因素时,为了对外直接投资的成功,国有企业在自然资源与风险之间进行了权衡取舍。     

对外直接投资、主权信用与投资风险——基于国别样本的动态面板分析

本文基于2003—2015年中国对135个国家(地区)的投资数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析东道国主权信用对中国对外直接投资的影响。研究结果表明:从全球范围看,中国企业对外直接投资偏向主权信用较低、投资风险较大的国家;单独对"一带一路"沿线国家、资源丰裕国家和发达国家的分析表明,该类国家的主权信用对中国对外直接投资呈U型影响:当东道国主权信用低于某一水平时,中国对外直接投资偏向主权信用较低的国家;当东道国主权信用超出某一水平时,中国对外直接投资则偏向主权信用较高的国家。中国对外直接投资趋向东道国主权信用水平的两个极端——战略资产丰富的高主权信用国和自然资源丰裕的低主权信用国。     

双边政治关系、东道国制度风险与中国对外直接投资

本文将政治因素纳入制度分析框架,考察了双边政治关系和东道国制度风险影响中国对外直接投资的机制和效应.在理论分析的基础上,通过对2003-2013年在117个国家直接投资数据的分析,本文发现:(1)从总体上看,中国的对外直接投资趋于流向政治关系好和制度风险高的东道国;(2)政治关系和制度风险的效应在发达国家和发展中国家有着明显的差异;(3)在制度风险大的东道国,良好的政治关系作为一种替代性的制度安排,减弱了在东道国经营的不确定性,有效地促进了对外直接投资,而在制度风险小的东道国,良好的政治关系没有带来对外直接投资的明显增加,更多地起到了对东道国环境的补充作用.     

The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment

Evidence on international capital flows suggests that foreign direct investment (FDI) is less volatile than other financial flows. To explain this finding I model international capital flows under the assumptions of imperfect enforcement of financial contracts and inalienability of FDI. Imperfect enforcement of contracts leads to endogenous financing constraints and the pricing of default risk. Inalienability implies that it is not as advantageous to expropriate FDI relative to other flows. These features combine to give a risk sharing advantage to FDI over other capital flows. This risk sharing advantage of FDI translates into a lower default premium and lower sensitivity to changes in a country’s financing constraint.The model offers the new implication that financially constrained countries should borrow relatively more through FDI. This is because FDI is harder to expropriate and not because FDI is more productive or less volatile. Using several creditworthiness and country risk ratings to measure financing constraints, I present new evidence linking FDI and financing constraints. Moreover, numerical simulations of the model generate stronger serial correlation for FDI than for other flows into developing countries. This corroborates the view that non-FDI flows are more short-term and more likely to change direction.     

Country factor differentials as determinants of FDI flow to China

Given the large size and rapid growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, a systematic analysis of the connection between FDI and the characteristics of source countries provides clearer insights into the roles of home‐country factors in the vast but still fast‐growing foreign investment in China. Unlike the existing mainstream studies of FDI in China, this analysis focuses on the effects of country‐factor differentials (between investing countries and China) on the FDI flow to China. Based on data from 21 source countries over a period of 17 years, this paper examines the impacts of eight variables in three sets of country factors, namely market conditions, risk, and financial factors. The statistical results show that, while the market‐condition variables and the high values of source country currencies positively influenced the flow of FDI to China, the relatively high costs of capital borrowing and political and operational risks in China inhibited the flow of FDI. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Risk and the technology content of FDI: A dynamic model

This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI—firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical patterns of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing firms.     

我国企业在南南直接投资中的竞争优势分析

改革开放以来,我国吸引外商直接投资规模逐年增加,处于世界领先地位,但对外直接投资方面则处于世界落后地位。截至2004年,我国对外直接投资存量为449亿美元,仅占全球对外直接投资存量的0.55%。根据我国企业在对外直接投资方面的竞争力水平,很难在短期内大规模进入欧美等发达国家的投资市场,但在对其他发展中国家的直接投资———南南直接投资中,我国企业无论与发展中国家的竞争对手相比还是与发达国家的竞争对手相比,均有一定的竞争优势。我国企业应当正确认识自身的竞争优势,以南南直接投资为突破口,培植国际竞争力,推动“走出去”战略。     

Political risk and the internationalization of firms: An empirical study of Canadian‐based export and FDI firms

Political risk analysis primarily receives attention for foreign direct investment (FDI) but only rarely for exporting. We examine how exporters and foreign direct investors evaluate the relative importance of political risk factors. We provide a rationale for exporters to evaluate political risk factors for FDI and for foreign direct investors to evaluate political risk factors for exporting. Survey data were collected from Canadian exporters and foreign direct investors and capture the distinctive nature of salient factors for exporting and FDI. We offer unique insights on the evolutionary character of political risk that are of practical value for both exporting and FDI. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Smaller may be beautiful but is it more risky? Assessing and managing political and economic risk in Costa Rica

The purpose of this exploratory study is to examine how managers assess and manage political and economic risk once their company's foreign direct investment (FDI) is on the ground. Using a qualitative research design involving personal interviews with CEOs/top managers of foreign firms operating in Costa Rica, findings indicate that managers at the subsidiary level generally do not engage in political and economic risk assessment on an ongoing basis, nor do they coordinate risk assessment with MNE headquarters. Propositions are developed that suggest subsidiary size may be more important for determining a firm's political risk than the overall size of the corporation. Also, a firm's political risk may vary over time as the host country's policy priorities change, particularly the policies which favor some industries over others. Findings are expected to contribute to the literature on country risk and bargaining theories as well as to the research on the role of the subsidiary in FDI.     

Foreign direct investment in emerging markets and acquirers’ value gains

We investigate the shareholder wealth effects of 306 foreign direct investment (FDI) announcements by UK firms in seventy-five emerging markets (EM). Our results show that acquirers enjoy highly significant gains during the announcement period of FDI. Perhaps surprisingly, the highest gains are accrued to acquirers investing in countries with high political risk and high corruption ratings. The type of asset acquired has also a significant effect on the gains of acquirers’ shareholders, with the highest gains accrued to acquirers of physical assets. Also, investments in physical assets in EM with a high corruption rating elicit the highest gains. We contend that UK firms following resource-seeking strategies in EM with a high corruption rating are facilitated access to resources on favorable terms and this is viewed positively by the market participants. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and the endogenous choice to expand internationally.     

美国对华直接投资的经济增长效应分析

自改革开放以来,我国利用外资取得了举世瞩目的成就。而随着外资规模的扩大和外商投资领域的拓宽,这股力量对我国的经济发展产生了越来越大的影响。美国对华直接投资是这股力量中的重要组成部分,而且与其他来源国的跨国资本相比,美资企业具有生产技术先进、管理水平高和单个项目投资规模大等特点。因此,本文在分析外商对华投资总体影响的基础上,着重探讨了美国对华投资对我国经济增长的影响。计量分析结果表明,国外资本的进入,对我国的长期经济增长会产生显著的促进作用,但美资进入却呈现出相反的效果:其在我国国内资本形成中所占比例的增长率每提高1个百分点,我国人均GDP的增长率将下降0.095个百分点。     

从FDI看世界经济波动对我国经济增长的影响

随着我国对外开放的不断发展,外国直接投资已成为世界经济波动影响我国经济增长的一个重要经济变量。世界经济增长率下滑,我国外国直接投资流入增长率上升,推动我国经济高速增长;世界经济增长率上升,我国外国直接投资流入增长率下降,阻碍我国经济高速增长。本文对近20年来世界经济增长率与我国外国直接投资增长率以及国民生产总值增长率的相关性进行分析,充分验证了上述论点。     

The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty

We examine the impact of uncertainty on vertical and horizontal FDI. Our model shows that greater supply uncertainty reduces the expected income from vertical FDI but increases the expected income from horizontal FDI. Greater demand uncertainty adversely affects the expected income under both production modes. Uncertainty about predatory actions by the host country is more costly to the multinational under vertical than under the horizontal mode. We examine sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies. Conditioning on host-country characteristics thought to influence FDI, we find evidence that volatility and sovereign risk have a greater negative impact on vertical FDI than on horizontal FDI.