A critique of labour values for planning

In some contemporary extensions of the Marxian model, use of labour values for purposes of socialist planning has been commended.This paper examines the validity of this type of calculation for non-capitalist economies for purposes of obtaining an allocations vector which will be optimal. The model uses a heterogeneous capital-goods model from which balanced growth allocation equations in general form are derived. The dual of these is shown to be labour values, only in a stationary state or where capital intensity is the same in all processes. In general, it is synchronised values obtained by allowing for growth (without consumption out of surplus) which form the dual of the optimal- allocation vector. A system of synchronised prices is then exhibited to take account of induced consumption, and in that case it is the dual of these which leads to optimal allocations.This paper then exhibits the inadequacy of Marxian labour values for planning purposes in a non-capitalist economy.     

论建设工程造价计价模式的改革

分析了传统定额计价模式与市场经济不相适应之处,讨论了我国实行工程量清单计价模式的优点,这种模式要求企业自主报价、由市场交易形成建筑产品的价格,是一种新的市场定价计价模式,能适应市场经济发展的要求。     

A Dual-Price Demand Theory for Economies under Transition

China adopted a dual-price system shortly after the economic reform started in 1978 to liberalise its price control. This led to the coexistence of both plan and market prices for an identical good in the economy. The conventional demand theory developed based on the pure market economies is not useful in explaining consumers' behaviour in the transitional economies such as China in which both plan and market prices are prevalent. This study develops an alternative demand theory for a dual-price (or dual-track) economy and derives the dual-price Slusky equation that identifies a replacement effect of price liberalisation. This demand theory distinguishes itself from the conventional demand theory and explains the ways in which consumers respond to the price liberalisation during the reform period. The new demand theory shows that the gradual approach to reform is superior to the ‘Big Bang’ approach in terms of reducing the ‘corrected inflation’ during the transition period. The new theory also suggests that the price elasticity of demand is higher in the dual-track system than that in a full market economy, implying that the price elasticity diminishes over the process of price liberalisation. This theory is tested using the Chinese aggregate consumption data.     

卓炯市场导向改革思路与实践检验的再认识再评价

1979年春卓炯率先提出市场导向的改革思路,主张把产品经济体制改革成市场经济体制,经济体制改革是一个系统工程,包括把计划价格改革成市场价格,资源配置机制的行政机制改革为市场机制,重塑微观经济基础。这是卓炯对改革作出的重大理论贡献。实践证明,卓炯提出的市场导向的改革思路是完全正确的,但是也存在着一些难点。这些难点包括适应市场经济的公有制的实现形式、私营个体经济在市场经济中的地位、个人在市场经济中的主体地位,需要根据改革实践进行充实和丰富。     

The emergence of agricultural commodity markets in China

By conscious design, reformers in China only gradually focused their efforts on expanding the role of markets for the allocation of goods and services in the economy. As a result, markets—especially in the agricultural sector—developed slowly. Throughout the 1990s there was a heated debate about the degree to which markets had emerged. The main goal in this paper is to bring together a number of simple and revealing facts on the emergence of China's markets. To do so we examine several sets of price data and analyze spatial patterns of market prices contours over time and text the extent to which market prices are integrated among China's regions. According to our analysis, we find that to a remarkable degree, agricultural commodity markets have emerged; price patterns look much like those in market economies in the rest of the world and prices are highly integrated across space.     

房贷风险评估及银行的应对策略

房地产是当今中国经济的支柱产业,而房地产发展的资金绝大部分由银行贷款获得,因此房价的变动会使银行的贷款业务面临风险。本文首先分析了现阶段房贷与房价之间的关系,接着讨论了人口因素对房价的影响,分析了房价的走势;最后计算了在不同的贷款方式下,商业银行应对房价下调时的贷款风险临界值,给出了商业银行防范房价变动的应对策略。     

石油价格波动对我国经济的影响

石油作为一种重要能源和资源,广泛应用于各行各业,被誉为经济乃至整个社会的"黑色黄金"、"经济血液"。1973年石油期货出现以前,国际石油价格一直在每桶3美元左右。30多年来国际石油价格一路攀升,2006年7月甚至达到了每桶78美元的"天价"。石油价格的剧烈波动改变着世界政治经济格局,尤其对世界经济的影响日益显著。我国作为当今世界经济发展的重要一员,与世界经济的关联程度日益增强。随着我国经济的快速发展,对石油的需求目益增加,石油的对外依存度不断提高,这就不可避免地受到国际石油价格上涨的影响。因此,认真分析国际石油价格上涨对世界经济和中国经济的影响,提出我国具体的应对措施,对我国经济社会发展和国家安全具有深远的意义。     

Growth,resource extraction and production in a small open economy

Summary and Conclusions This paper analyzed the optimal growth of a resource exporting economy in the framework of a Ramsey-type model. Two versions of the same model are used. In the first version (where the aggregate production function uses the conventional inputs, namely labor and capital) it was shown that along the optimal paths the resource would be exhausted in finite time and that the economy approaches asymptotically the modified golden rule capital intensity, well known from one-sector growth theory. Subsequently the impact of the changes in resource prices on the rate of extraction are investigated by considering an exponentially rising price.In the second version of the model, the resource extracted is divided between domestic production (the aggregate output of the economy is produced by means of labor, capital and the resource input) and export. Under this assumption, it is demonstrated that when the relative price of the resource is constant and given exogenously, the opening of trade (i.e., resource exports) depends on the relative magnitudes of the marginal product of the resource and its price. Furthermore the paper showed that even if trade opens, resource extraction for export will come to an end in finite time. After the economy stops exporting the resource, its optimal growth will be determined simultaneously by the elasticity of substitution between capital and the resource input and the dynamic behavior of the marginal product of the resource input, as explained in detail by Dasgupta and Heal [1974]. Finally, when the resource price has an exponential trend, resource extraction will continue both for domestic production and export purposes.     

Price formation and the inflationary process in a small open economy (The Netherlands)

Summary Price formation in the manufacturing, services, building and agricultural sectors is analysed by estimating price equations in which unit labour costs, import prices, capacity utilization and the structure of the sellers market (sheltered or competitive) play a part. These equations have been included in a model in which sectoral wages and social security premiums are endogenous as well. This model, which is still partial since it considerse.g. labour productivity and capacity utilization as exogenous, allows a study of the intersectoral multiplier effects which were found to be quite considerable.A large number of simulation results are presented showing the effects of both domestic and foreign exogenous shocks.Finally, an analysis of the relative importance of the factors determining the rise in consumer prices during 1954–1972 has been carried out.     

Valuation Implications of Unconditional Accounting Conservatism: Evidence from Analysts' Target Prices

We examine whether financial analysts understand the valuation implications of unconditional accounting conservatism when forecasting target prices. While accounting conservatism affects reported earnings, conservatism per se does not have an effect on the present value of future cash flows. We examine whether analysts adjust for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to estimate target prices. We find that signed target price errors (actual minus forecast) have a significant positive association with the degree of conservatism in forward earnings, suggesting that target prices are biased due to accounting conservatism. Cross‐sectional analysis suggests that more sophisticated analysts and superior long‐term forecasters adjust for conservatism to a greater extent than other analysts. In additional analyses, we explore the mechanism through which conservatism leads to bias in target prices. We first show that analysts' earnings forecasts are negatively associated with the degree of conservatism; that is, analysts include the effect of unconditional conservatism in their earnings forecasts. Based on alternative earnings‐based valuation models that analysts may use, our evidence suggests that analysts fail to appropriately adjust their valuation multiple for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to derive target prices. As a consequence, we find that, for extreme changes in conservatism, the bias in analysts' target prices due to conservatism leads to a distortion of market prices. The evidence highlights the concern that analysts may not appreciate the valuation implications of conservative accounting which could inhibit price discovery.     

军工企业债券融资的必要性分析及发展建议

随着社会的发展,军工企业资金筹集的渠道和融资结构也在不断变化,由计划经济时期的财政拨款逐步向市场经济体制下的多元融资转化。目前军工企业的发展资金除财政拨款外,多来源于银行贷款,部分来源于股权融资,而从优化融资结构理论及通货膨胀理论来看,债券融资是对企业较为有利的一种融资方式。本文将从军工企业发展需要及融资理论等方面论证军工企业债券融资的必要性,并通过总结近年来军工企业债券融资情况,分析目前存在的问题及相关发展建议。     

金融资产配置与股价信息含量

股价信息含量作为资本定价效率的重要体现，其对于抑制"脱实向虚"实现金融服务实体经济起着关键作用。文章着眼于我国企业大量配置金融资产这一现实，探究了其对股价信息含量的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股上市公司数据的实证检验表明：金融资产具有"盈余管理"功能，管理层可能出于"盈余管理"动机配置金融资产，恶化公司信息环境，最终降低了股价信息含量。具体而言，企业通过操纵金融资产确认类别、公允价值估值及终止确认等方式达到盈余管理目的。当公司盈余管理动机较为强烈时，金融资产对股价信息含量的降低作用更加明显。完善的法律体制及有效的内部治理有助于缓解两者之间的负向关系。文章结论为我国企业持有金融资产提供了新解释，揭示了"脱实向虚"作用于实体经济的路径，同时丰富了会计政策选择的经济后果，为推动我国会计准则改革具有一定的启示意义。     

Optimality in an OLG model with nonsmooth preferences

It is a well-known observation that, in the overlapping generations (OLG) model with the complete market, we can judge optimality of an equilibrium allocation by examining the associated equilibrium price. Motivated by recent development in decision theory under ambiguity, this study reexamines the above observation in a stochastic OLG model with convex but not necessarily smooth preferences. It is shown that optimality of an equilibrium allocation depends on the set of possible supporting prices, not necessarily on the associated equilibrium price itself. Therefore, observations of an equilibrium price do not necessarily tell us precise information on optimality of the equilibrium allocation.     

The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?

In recent years, emerging Asian economies have experienced (i) large capital inflows, especially a surge in portfolio inflows, and (ii) an appreciation of asset prices such as stocks, land, and nominal and real exchange rates. We empirically investigate the effects of capital inflows on asset prices by employing a panel VAR model. The empirical results suggest that capital inflows indeed have contributed to asset price appreciation in the region, although capital inflow shocks explain a relatively small part of asset price fluctuations.     

Production theory under uncertain inflation

Summary and Conclusions This paper examines Chen's [1980] model of asset valuation under uncertain inflation in order to derive a static and comparative static theory of production by a competitive firm. Given the value maximizing and the price taking assumptions, the firm behaves as a profit-maximizer. The sole effect of uncertain inflation is to distort the price structure. that is, the firm adjusts the expected price of an input or output to reflect the systematic risk of that price. Because a change in circumstances can affect the systematic risk of a given price, assessing the effects of a specific policy or event solely in terms of its effect on expected price can be misleading. Parametric variations affect the structure of certainty equivalent prices. Therefore, the comparative static derivatives of the value maximizing firm emerge as extensions of the comparative static derivatives of the profit maximizing firm under certainty. Many of these comparative static derivatives are of determinant sign. The effects of changes in market uncertainty and in inflation uncertainty, while they can be characterized mathematically, cannot be signed in the general case. Cross-sectional studies indicate wide variation in the effects of inflation, so that the preceding theoretical results appear plausible. Finally, in view of the wealth of static and comparative static results which can be derived from Chen's model, that model provides a convenient benchmark against which to judge other models. Precisely because of its simple nature, Chen's model is ideal for establishing limits of analysis.     

A supply‐response analysis of Botswana's livestock and sorghum: An error‐correction approach

This article is a supply‐response analysis of Botswana's livestock and sorghum relative to agricultural/non‐agricultural prices (terms of trade), and of capital‐labour ratio, using an error‐correction method. Aggregate capital‐labour ratio is included to measure the importance of resource endowment in particular sectors. There has been, on average, a small progressive increase in livestock terms of trade and a decline in that of sorghum. Improvements in livestock price terms of trade encourage increased livestock (cattle) supply whereas declining terms of trade reduce sorghum production. The current arable pricing policy of the government is therefore of limited potential in transforming the sub‐sector. Increases in capital‐labour ratio tend to reduce agricultural production in the Botswana economy.     

Accounting Quality,Stock Price Delay,and Future Stock Returns*

In frictionless capital markets with complete information and rational investors, stock prices adjust to new information instantaneously and completely. However, a substantial body of research studies information imperfections such as asymmetric information and incomplete information. Information imperfections potentially hinder timely price discovery and are likely associated with delayed stock price adjustment to information. Our first research question therefore is whether the quality of accounting information (or “accounting quality”) is one such information imperfection that is associated with cross‐sectional variation in stock price delay. We define accounting quality as the precision with which financial reports convey information to equity investors about the firm’s expected cash flows. Poor accounting quality is likely associated with higher expected returns through uncertainty about stock valuation parameters and incomplete information. Our second research question therefore is whether the accounting quality component of price delay is associated with higher future stock returns. Consistent with our hypotheses, the results show that poor accounting quality is associated with delayed price adjustment and higher future stock returns. Thus, accounting quality plays a role in timely stock price discovery.     

Price convergence in the EU—an aggregate and disaggregate approach

This article examines the price dispersion in the European Union (EU) over 15 years (1990–2005). An extensive overview of the literature offers inconclusive results with the half-lives of price shocks from 2.8 to 282 months. Until now, most of the empirical research has been either micro or macro based. In contrast, we conducted a complex analysis utilizing both aggregate and disaggregate price data. The macro approach is based on a Comparative Price Level index calculated as the ratio between PPPs and exchange rate. The disaggregate analysis utilizes the actual prices of almost 150 individual products sold in the 15 capital cities of the EU. We conducted sigma and beta convergence in the analysis of both datasets. There are several differences in results depending on whether the calculation was based on indices or actual prices. Additionally, the model is tested to measure the contribution of different factors in explaining the observed convergence pattern. Most of the explanatory power comes from the differences in GDP (or wages), exchange rate volatility and differences in taxes. The Euro effect when controlling for exchange rate volatility, is not significant.     

Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?

This paper investigates the influence of international capital flows on housing prices in eight Asian countries, including China. We focus on determining whether exchange rate arrangements and capital regulations influence capital inflows and housing prices. Our results show that an arrangement to restrain the fluctuation of the exchange rate and capital controls has the potential to raise housing prices in Asia. The strong prospect of the Chinese yuan's appreciation also pushed up housing prices in China. Another expected reason for the increase in capital inflows into Asian markets is the expansion of global liquidity. Such capital flows often have a sensitive reaction to market sentiment, and an increase in asset market volatility caused by the liquidity squeeze decreases Asian housing prices. These results suggest the need to review capital controls and future exchange rate system options for Asian countries.     

REAL AND DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRICE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

The effect of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in the price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.