金砖国家多边经济合作的新趋势

"金砖国家"正在推动改革世界银行、国际货币基金组织等国际金融机构,倡导多边主义和国际关系民主化,维护发展中国家的权益。在建立国际经济新秩序过程中,"金砖国家"致力于创立多元化和更加稳定的国际货币体系,"金砖国家"对促进发展和世界经济复苏做出了贡献。"金砖国家"将在保持世界经济稳定方面发挥更重要的作用。     

Openness and Economic Performance: A Comparative Study of China and the Asian NIEs

Being the world's largest developing economy, China's successful economic performance since 1978 has had a powerful impact on the global economy. Its open policy features an evolutionary process, involving the gradual liberalization of foreign exchange, international trade and foreign direct investments. This paper evaluates how this evolutionary process has contributed to China's economic success in comparison with the development experiences of the Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs). It concludes that despite the economic crisis in 1997–98, China and the NIEs represent a successful development model, which is built upon openness and huge investments in physical and human capital.     

大宗商品高价体制与货币战

由于金融危机的压力以及世界新兴经济体地位的不断上升,以美国为首的西方权力集团地位开始出现下滑。为重振世界经济霸权地位,西方权力集团寻求通过提高粮食和石油等国际大宗商品价格以及货币战等来压制新兴经济体经济的发展。文章首先从历史背景出发,分析了以美国为首的权力集团操纵粮食、石油等国际大宗商品价格事实为依据,分析导致国际商品价格上升之动因,进而分析美国等西方权力集团利用其美元霸权来推行货币战对新兴经济体实施进一步打击,并最后提出相应的对策。     

The “exorbitant privilege” and “exorbitant duty” of the United States in the international monetary system: implications for developing countries

The international monetary system may be viewed as a global insurance system, where the United States enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of a positive yield differential on its external assets and liabilities during normal times, in exchange for the “exorbitant duty” of valuation losses in the form of wealth transfers to the rest of the world during crisis periods. Evidence for 76 economies and 1995–2019 indicates that some other major developed economies also enjoy an exorbitant privilege, though without suffering an exorbitant duty. By contrast, most developing economies neither have an exorbitant privilege nor benefit from wealth transfers. Developing economies as a group recorded negative return differentials and valuation losses during 2010–2019, implying a total return differential of about minus three percentage points between developing and developed economies and an annual average resource transfer from developing economies of about $800bn, or 3.3 per cent of their GDP. Econometric analysis linking crisis insurance strategies and yield differentials indicates that permanent swap arrangements, reserve holdings and regional monetary arrangements can contain negative yield differentials. Developed economies could make part of past resource transfers available to developing economies to finance recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

     

Labour Standards and the 'Race to the Bottom': Rethinking Globalization and Workers' Rights from Developmental and Solidaristic Perspectives

There is a protracted stalemate between rich (the North) andpoor (the South) countries over the question of minimum labourstandards in developing economies. This paper is a sequel toSingh and Zammit (2000). It considers afresh key issues in thecontroversy. While fully recognizing the moral, political, andphilosophical dimensions of this complex issue, the paper concentrateson the central economic question of the ‘race to the bottom’.It emphasizes the difficulties of establishing labour standardsin the vast informal sectors in developing countries and suggeststhat the ILO conventions 87 and 98 should be amended to reflectproperly these concerns. It also argues that ILO core conventionsshould be broadened to include the right to a decent living.The overall conclusion is that labour standards are importantindicators of economic development, but their promotion is bestachieved in a non-coercive and supportive international environmentsuch as that provided by the ILO.     

Changing nature of North–South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations

This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization—the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960–2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986–2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the North and Emerging South economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.     

短期国际资本流动对不同经济体资产价格的影响

文章基于24个非美发达经济体和16个发展中经济体的长面板数据，采用FGLS模型分析了短期国际资本流动对不同经济体资产价格的影响。结果显示：短期国际资本对股票和房地产价格具有显著的促进作用，但对债券价格的影响并不显著。与此同时，非美发达经济体资产价格对短期国际资本冲击的反应更为敏捷，但波动幅度小。这表明发达经济体不仅更容易吸引外资，且能够较好地平缓短期资本快速进出造成的冲击，从而降低冲击可能引发的系统性风险。     

新兴大国与国际数字鸿沟的消弭——以中非信息技术合作为例

国际数字鸿沟已成为21世纪的新型贫困。尽管全球技术扩散使得数字鸿沟在数量方面有所消弭,但在质量方面鸿沟则进一步扩大,同时发展中国家内部的技术差距也日益拉大。数字鸿沟问题期待更广泛的援助和更全面的解决方案,新兴大国的群体性崛起及其在技术链中的特殊地位和发展经验可为消除国际数字鸿沟作出重大贡献,中非信息技术合作已经成为这一方面的典范。中非信息技术合作成功的经验值得总结,中国外交应当思考联手其他新兴国家与非洲开展信息技术合作以推动整个南南合作的发展,推动新型全球发展伙伴关系的建立。     

Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Shocks in a Low‐income Economy: The Case of Tobacco in Malawi

A major concern for developing economies is a dependence on commodities when their prices are volatile as a major change in the international commodity price can have important implications for economic growth. While some cross‐country studies exist, there is lack of country specific studies that take into account the different characteristics of low‐income economies. This paper contributes to the growing literature by considering the case of Malawi and the macroeconomic impact of price shocks in its major export crop of tobacco. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach on quarterly Malawian data from 1980:1 to 2012:4, the paper establishes that a positive tobacco price shock has a significant positive impact on the country's gross domestic product, decreasing consumer prices and inducing real exchange rate appreciation. The results are robust to alternative specifications of a SVAR on difference stationary data and cointegrating VAR. The cointegrating VAR confirms the existence of a long run‐relationship among the variables and causality that runs from tobacco prices.     

The impact of economic fundamentals on stock markets in southern Africa

The issue of whether stock markets reflect economic fundamentals or speculative bubbles is an important one for their potential role in allocating capital, and relates to a policy issue of whether stock markets should be encouraged in developing countries. This article examines the impact of both domestic and foreign economic factors on real stock market returns in three southern African stock markets – South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana, from 1985-95 – using cointegration and error correction techniques. It finds that, while in all cases stock markets are influenced by domestic economic growth, there are no common patterns beyond this. The influence of other domestic and economic variables depends on the size, openness and market-orientation of the individual economies, as well as the size and liquidity of the various stock exchanges. Where foreign economic variables are important, they appear to be those related to trade, rather than international capital flows, indicating that there is little integration of these capital markets, whether regionally or internationally.     

What can be learned from China’s success?

Since 1978, China has experienced the most rapid economic growth of any country in world history, and the most rapid growth in living standards of any major economy. Following the latest international financial crisis, China outperformed any other major economy – from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2014, China’s economy grew by 78% and the USA by 8%. In a single generation, China has gone from a ‘low income economy’ to the verge of achieving ‘high income’ status by World Bank criteria. Achieving this would double the population living in ‘high income’ economies globally. This extremely rapid development is sometimes explained in terms of unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, but research over the last 30 years suggests it is rooted in universal economic processes. While the combination of global forces producing economic growth is unique in China and produces unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, they can operate throughout the world economy. If other developing economies could achieve the scale of China’s economic success, global problems of poverty and its consequences would be solved. China’s policy response to the international financial crisis was far more effective than that of other major economies. This paper examines the chief strategic lessons to be drawn from China’s success.     

国际金融危机-资本主义末日抑或重塑

自大萧条以来本场国际金融危机是我们这年代经历的最大经济危机。这场危机导致大型金融机构倒闭,这些机构倒闭导致了世界经济系统的瘫塌。为了应对危机,很多国家注入数亿计的资金来刺激经济,而且通过控制私有公司来改造它们,我们实现了所谓"国有化"。政府提出的干预主义目的是通过社会主义方针政策调控处理危机。自2008年来工业化及新兴国家同意建立G20作为应对金融危机的主要策略。     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors？

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDI. Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China's FDI from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.     

Models of financially repressed developing economies

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of research on financial sector models of financially repressed developing economies. For the most part, financial repression is interpreted to be the technique of holding interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their free market equilibrium levels. The recent spate of activity in this field was produced by the simultaneous publication in 1973 of books by McKinnon and Shaw. Both authors demonstrate how economic theory can be applied to the analysis of the effects of financial conditions on investment and the real rate of economic growth. Since 1973, models of financially repressed developing economies have been formalized mathematically, extended to open economies in order to analyse exchange rate policies, and tested empirically. This paper presents a critical survey of the major contributions to the literature in this field since 1973.     

Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling

Despite its role as a driver of global economic growth through the 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the international importance of Japan's economic performance recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as economic partner to both industrial and developing countries and changes in its economic performance that would otherwise be a matter for global concern. In particular, the tendency for the Japanese economy and its external trade to stagnate not only has immediate consequences for global performance but also foreshadows a path to industrial transition for other key Asian economies. This paper reviews quantitative studies of Japan's performance. It identifies a paucity of results addressing global implications and suggests new research in this direction.     

主动助推多层次产业转移——以发展的态势和增量改革的方式修正结构性失衡

短期内,扩大内需很难全面对接并完全弥补外需萎缩产生的需求空缺。因此应该在立足自身融资和自我研发能力的前提下,结合稳定的外资规模,在东部发达地区发展高新产业、节能环保产业和现代服务产业和积极承接国际服务外包。同时鼓励中西部地区双重吸收东部地区由于产业升级而挤出的对外加工贸易产业和国际上继续转出的劳动密集型产业,从而以多层次产业转移助推东西部经济的异阶同步发展,在动态的发展过程中以增量改革的方式逐渐优化经济结构。     

The Asian Automotive Industry: Assessing the Roles of State and Market in the Age of Global Competition

In the 1970s, automotive industries in developing economies were rebuked for their failure to set in motion the technological learning and industrial externalities that justified state promotion. However, in the 1990s, a number of Asian automotive industries throve with the rapid growth of their host economies. This paper assesses the current state and prospects of automotive industries in selected Asian countries with state-sponsored development programs—South Korea, Taiwan, China and India—and the ASEAN economies—Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. To date, Korea is the only developing economy in Asia with an indigenous auto-manufacturing base capable of competing in the international market. Given developments in the world industry, the catch-up task for other countries in the region will be more difficult.     

2011-2012年东盟经济的分析与预测

2011年东盟国家经济保持复苏的态势。随着欧元区主权债务危机的蔓延,世界经济增长趋于放缓,东盟国家的经济增长也呈现出减缓的趋势。为应对国内经济的下滑,一些国家开始逐步调整宏观经济政策的方向。同时东盟区域经济一体化取得新的进展。在新的国内外经济形势下,2012年东盟国家经济发展将面临新的挑战,这将考验各国政府的宏观调控能力。     

自由贸易抑或贸易保护——国际贸易的经济增长效应再考察

全球经济复苏过程中,发达国家与新兴经济体之间关于自由贸易的争议也变得空前激烈。国际贸易是否有利于全球经济增长?这实际上是长期以来国际经济学与发展经济学领域颇具争议的问题之一,而在当下对这一问题进行重新审视更具有重要的现实意义。传统贸易理论对贸易合理性的探究尽管触及了经济增长问题,但在贸易静态收益理论的框架下,国际贸易究竟是否会促进一国经济增长,既取决于各个国家在各个发展阶段的经济增长究竟偏向于出口部门还是进口部门,也取决于各种贸易政策对各个部门的相对供给和相对需求的影响。本文对现有针对国际贸易与经济增长关系所做的实证研究作了系统回顾和分析总结,明确指出了目前各种看似矛盾的实证证据背后的理论和技术根源。在此基础上,运用两阶段最小二乘估计(2SLS)和GMM动态面板回归技术,对1960～2006年期间全球各国面板数据进行分析,对不同收入水平的国家组别分别就其贸易占GDP比重与GDP增长之间的关系进行实证检验。文章发现,上述实证研究证明国际贸易对经济增长的促进作用与一国经济发展阶段相关,但对不同收入水平的国家而言则存在差异,同时进口和出口在经济增长中的表现也存在差异性。总体来看,对中等收入国家而言,贸易占GDP比重与GDP增速之间的关系最强,进出口均有较强带动作用;高收入国家贸易占GDP比重与GDP增速之间关系较弱,进口的作用甚至大于出口;低收入国家贸易占GDP比重与GDP增速之间的关系最弱,进口甚至有抑制作用。