世界经济回顾与展望

2001年，世界经济普遍不景气，国际贸易，国际投资，股市、金融市场等方面均不同程度下挫。唯中国经济一枝独秀，2002年，世界经济发展环境仍具有很大不确定性。     

Interlinkages between external debt financing,credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies

Review of World Economics - This paper examines the role of external debt financing (EDF) in shaping the credit cycles and the joint implications of EDF flows and credit growth for the output...     

Trade,debt, and the Cuban economy

Like many other Latin American countries, Cuba pursued a strategy of “debt-led growth” in the mid-1970s and sustained large balance of payments deficits with the West. Though external balance was restored by 1979, Cuba faced a severe liquidity crisis in 1982 when short-term loans were suddenly withdrawn. This paper is a study of Cuba's seemingly exceptional ability to decrease its foreign debt after 1980, meet interest payments on time, and maintain an overall program of growth with equity. A combination of implicit Soviet trade subsidies, and Cuba's socialist polity and political-economic control, have apparently mitigated the constraints of the “world capitalist system,” and fostered an alternative program to the current austerity measures of most of Latin America.     

青岛经济开发区融资环境及方式分析

通过对融资方式进行概述,结合融资方式的策略和应用时须注意的问题及青岛开发区的融资环境,对开发区的融资方式按资金性质和行业性质两类进行介绍,旨在探索适合青岛开发区的融资方式,并对青岛开发区的融资方式提出一些建议,期待能够对青岛开发区发展过程中的融资决策有所裨益。     

世界经济新格局与中国经济长期增长前景

中国各行业企业资本边际收益率普遍下降,意味着中国宏观经济增速下行已成为必然趋势。实际上,这标志着中国在完成基本工业化后开始从高速增长阶段进入中低速增长阶段,这也是国际发达经济体和东亚新兴经济体都遵循的发展规律。面对经济增长的趋势性变化,货币政策对经济增长的刺激作用是非常有限的,大量超发货币只会加剧信贷泡沫、增加企业尝债能力的系统性风险。当前经济的核心问题在于宏观税赋过高和企业盈利能力不足,因此,最重要的财政政策应该是实施总量减税而不仅是结构性减税,尤其是对中小企业减税减赋,才能增加就业,提高居民消费比例,转变经济增长方式。     

世界经济2001年回顾与2002年展望

回顾2001年,“滑入衰退”已经成为世界经济总体走势的主要特点。就全球GDP增长率看,2000年尚高达近4％,而2001年却难以达到1.5％,尤其是全球贸易增长率,在2000年曾高达13.3％,到2001年一下子跌到了1％左右。展望2002年,“艰难回升”似将成为世界经济发展前景的基本态势。据世界银行最新估计,     

2001-2002年泰国经济回顾与展望

本文回顾并展望了2001－2002年的泰国经济形势。2001年，泰国出口增长减退，经济增长放缓，经济情况不容乐观，2002年，在世界经济低迷以及中国加入世界贸易组织的大环境下，泰国的出口产品面临中国商品的激烈竞争，泰国希望依靠出口大幅回升而使经济大幅增可能性较小，泰国政府计划刺激内需以促进经济增长，预计2002年泰国经济将维持较低的增长。     

Relief and reform in third world debt

This paper reviews the debt problem and argues that there is a need for wider financial reforms as well as debt relief. North-South dispute is best resolved through the development of agreed rules governing both debt relief and balance-of-payments financing for exogenously created shocks. The poorest countries require both debt relief and increased finance. Improved compensatory finance, more liberal supplementary finance and conditional repayment arrangements are recommended for all. The terms of new arrangements should be applied retroactively as debt relief. A new issue of special drawing rights is advocated for the financing of these relief and reform proposals.     

传统中国经济发展的制约因素——兼评《大分流:欧洲、中国及现代世界经济的发展》

一、制度性因素 彭慕兰对世界经济史上产生“大分流”的原因和机制的探讨，主要从生态环境和地理因素来分析中国和欧洲的经济发展道路，而忽视了中国传统的制度性因素对中国经济的影响，有着明显的地理决定论倾向。     

展会经济与世界贸易

对一个城市来说,成功的会展是名利双收的事业。一个城市能不能跻身于国际大都市,一个重要标志就是召开国际会议的数量和规模。     

港口经济与世界工厂

一、港口经济与制造业发展的关系第一,什么是港口经济,因为我没有研究,胆子就大一点做个判断:港口经济是货主、船运公司和码头业务的结合体,是物流链和交通枢纽及相应服务产业的循环体。从产业经济学的角度看,港口经济也是一种产业集群,或者说产业集群的一种形式。产业集群大概有三种形式:产业纵向关联、横向关联和区位优势指向的产业集群。这三种产业集群的形式在港口经济中均有所体现。同时港口经济也具有产业集群的三大特性:共生性、互动性和柔韧性。“共生性”是一些企业和一些机构在特定地理位置上的集中,相互之间有共生效应,能产生规…     

The European economy in an expanding world

Summary Postwar economic development in Europe can be subdivided in two periods. In the first subperiod 1950–1973 growth is determined by catching up vis-d-vis the US. The second subperiod 1973–1993 is characterised by a reorientation with respect to the international division of labour. This sets the stage for future developments, which are presented in the form of three different scenarios. In the European Decline scenario Europe cannot match developments in the US and Japan. As appears from a scenario called Fortress Europe import protection provides no sensible solution. To compete on a world scale Europe needs more technological dynamics as sketched in the European Recovery scenario. Calculations of future paths are based on the WorldScan model of the Central Planning Bureau.Theo van de Klundert is Professor of Economics at Tilburg University. Ben Geurts and Hans Timmer are staff members of the Central Planning Bureau, The Hague. We are indebted to Martin Fase and Simon Kuipers for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

港口经济率先与世界经济接轨的若干思考

我国加入世贸组织,成为这个号称“经济联合国”组织的正式成员,标志着我国对外开放和发展开放型经济进入新阶段,必须积极加快国民经济同世界经济全面接轨的步伐。而港口经济作为对国内国外的双向     

The impact of disinvestment and the debt crisis on the South African economy

The paper considers the economic implications of disinvestment and the debt crisis for the South African economy with the aid of some historical analysis of foreign capital inflows and growth. It considers the changes that have occurred in the structure of foreign liabilities over the last twenty years and it examines the quantitative and qualitative roles of private investment and non‐direct investment over this period. The debt issue is examined within the framework of disinvestment, and the conclusion reached is that the economic problems consequent to a withdrawal of foreign loans pose a far greater threat to the South African economy than the loss of foreign direct investment. We assume that disinvestment is not accompanied by any official trade embargo, and the controversy surrounding the relationship between economic growth and social and political change in South Africa is ignored.     

詹向阳论地方政府债务与融资平台

最近,围绕地方政府融资平台极其债务风险发生了很多争议。中国工商银行金融研究总监詹向阳指出,对这一问题应该辩证地看待——地方政府融资平台对我国经济的发展功不可没;到目前为止,其债务风险可控;但由于运作不规范等造成的隐患正在加速暴露,必须予以重视并加以改进。     

The choice of financing with public debt versus private debt: New evidence from Japan after critical binding regulations were removed

The complete removal of binding regulatory constraints on bond issuance till 1993 provides an opportunity ripe enough to test hypotheses on the choice of financing with public debt and bank debt, comparing with the partial deregulation of Japanese financial markets in the late 1980s. Regardless of further deregulation, there is a U-turning to bank debt in Japan's corporate financing as the 1990s’ recession prolonging. In particular, we find high quality Japanese firms leave banks to the bond market, while low quality firms U-turn to bank debt. We also provide new evidence that Japanese banks tend to lend loans to wealthy firms. Because of a shift from equity-linked bond to straight bond during 1993–1997, our study provides a complement to evidence on financing choices of equity-linked public debt versus bank debt with the late 1980s’ bull stock market.     

The LDC external debt and the euromarkets: The impressive record and the uncertain future

This paper deals in detail with the volume and nature of LDC borrowing in the eurocurrency markets over the past 10 years. The factors affecting borrowing and lending on the euromarket are discussed, followed by an evaluation of the terms and conditions attached to euromarket loans. These borrowing activities, which have grown considerably recently, are analysed with a view towards clarifying a number of major issues related to the general problem of the increasing LDC external indebtedness and to the future of financial relations between the LDCs and the rest of the world economy.     

加快民间融资步伐 推动河北经济发展

目前全球金融危机背景下,加快民间融资发展对河北省扩大内需、促进经济增长有着重要的意义。本文针对河北省民间融资的新变化,从法制、政策、市场、行政服务、社会信用等五个方面提出了加快河北省民间融资发展的建议。