Comment on “The endogenous aggregate elasticity of substitution for a small open economy”

This note applies the approach of Miyagiwa and Papageorgiou [Miyagiwa, K. and Papageorgiou, C., 2007. Endogenous aggregate elasticity of substitution. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 31, 2899–2919] to provide simple frameworks for endogenizing the aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor for a growing small open economy.     

中国工业部门的能源替代研究——基于对ALLEN替代弹性模型的修正

To overcome the drawbacks in estimating the rate of input substitution in existing econometric models, our paper is first to estimate the absolute/net rate of input substitution of capital and labor for energy in China’s industrial sector. Based on trans-log cost function with constant elasticity of substitution and combined MES method with technology progress and output effect, our paper finds a significant substitution relationship between labor and energy and an uncertain substitution relationship between capital and energy with some complementary characteristics. Furthermore, technology progress and output effect are found to have enhanced the substitution of labor for energy in the past 30 years. Based on these empirical findings, constructive suggestions are made concerning the medium and long-term development strategy of energy in China’s industrial sector. __________ Translated from Shuliang jingji jishu jingji yanjiu 数量经济技术经济研究 (The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics), 2008, (5): 30–42     

Long-run relationships between labor and capital: Indirect evidence on the elasticity of substitution

This paper proposes an indirect method for making empirical inference on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. The idea is that estimates of the elasticity may be retrievable from theory derived behavioral equations, by conducting comparative statics with respect to this parameter. This approach is readily applicable to more realistic models than those which are commonly used to derive estimates of the substitution elasticity. It is demonstrated that the conventional approach does not yield sensible estimates on quarterly Finnish manufacturing data. By applying the indirect method, a long-run empirical relationship is found that is consistent with an elasticity of substitution below one.     

Elasticity of substitution and the stagnation of Italian productivity

The aim of this paper is to investigate the roots of the stagnation in the Italian total factor productivity (TFP). The analysis focuses on the specific pattern of technical progress in determining the dynamics of the TFP. This analysis cannot be done with Cobb-Douglas technology, but requires the employment of a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function that allows distinguishing between the direction and the bias of technical progress. We employ a CES specification embodying both labor- and capital-augmenting technical change, with a σ less than 1. We obtain three main results. (1) There seems to have been a structural break around the mid-1990s in the direction and bias of technological change; (2) The first half of the sample features a labor-augmenting technical change and a capital bias; and (3) In the second part of the sample, both these characteristics seem to disappear, and the evolution of factor endowments assumes a key role. This fact may be seen as one of the potential causes of the stagnation in Italian productivity.     

Capital theory and the origins of the elasticity of substitution (1932-35)

Elasticity of substitution was introduced into economics duringthe early 1930s. It was discovered independently by Hicks inThe Theory of Wages and by Joan Robinson in The Economics ofImperfect Competition, and then was the centre of a polemicinvolving Kahn and Sraffa, among others. The debate focusedon imperfect competition and capital-theoretical issues. Someelements of the 1950s and 1960s capital theory controversy,such as the idea of capital as a Giffen good or the difficultiesof measuring capital, were already discussed at this early stage.     

The role of factor substitution in the theory of economic growth and income distribution: Two examples

While much empirical evidence suggests that the Cobb–Douglas production function may be a reasonable benchmark for aggregate analysis, we argue that the practice, particularly prevalent in contemporary growth theory, of adopting the Cobb–Douglas technology, may lead to misleading implications. Using two examples, we show that key implications of the models are highly sensitive to small deviations of the elasticity of substitution from unity. The first employs the standard neoclassical model and emphasizes the sensitivity of the speed of convergence to small changes in the elasticity of substitution. This in turn has profound consequences for wealth and income distribution. The second deals with foreign aid and highlights how the relative merits of “tied” versus “untied” aid are also very sensitive to the elasticity of substitution.     

替代产品投放策略与竞争性反应研究

本文首先介绍了产品替代理论，然后回顾了新产品投放及竞争者的反应方面的相关理论研究，在投放策略与反应之间引入信号的概念：根据已有文献研究总结得出企业感知信号的不同类型与其做出竞争性反应的关系。     

非农投资总量、结构和要素替代对就业的影响

将影响非农产业就业量的增长因素分解为:投资总量效应、结构变化效应和要素替代效应;投资总量的增长是拉动非农就业增长的主要力量,投资的行业结构变化效应以及要素替代效应导致了非农就业的下降。     

中国制造业企业研发投入与效果的经验研究

关于企业研发的相关研究一直以来就受到了重视,不过目前关于国内企业的相关经验研究都存在诸如样本容量稀少、检验方法欠缺以及样本选择偏差等问题,从而所得出的结论可能存在质疑.使用2007年样本容量巨大的中国制造业企业数据进行企业研发方面的相关检验,并且将使用多种方法进行检验并比较结果的差异性.结果表明:政府部门应加大对企业的研发投入,企业应重视生产经营,从而积累更多的资源用于研发,利用研发提高并保持自身的竞争优势.     

收入再分配对我国居民总消费需求的扩张效应

本文研究我国收入再分配与居民总消费需求的关系。文章利用分组的家庭户数据,用三种方法度量居民消费支出,估计了各收入组的边际消费倾向差异。研究中还将变量间的长期动态关系和通货膨胀因素纳入分析范围。研究结果表明,中国的收入分配显著影响了居民消费。根据本文的模拟计算,即使中低收入阶层的收入份额只有微弱的提高,也可以增加数百亿元的居民消费需求。因此,缩小居民收入差距,加大居民收入再分配的力度,壮大中等收入者的队伍,提高农民收入,对刺激我国居民消费需求具有积极作用。     

The elasticity of demand for wagering in an unregulated market

The literature estimating the take-out rate (price) elasticity of horse race wagering has consistently found values far above one. The persistence of these apparently inefficiently high prices can be attributed to institutional factors of the US market where federal taxes are imposed on the total amount wagered, and not on the bookmakers’ revenue. By investigating all horse races in New Zealand from August 1993 to April 2009, our article is the first one to consider price setting for wagering in an unregulated market where taxes for a monopolistic betting agency are based on revenues. In such a setting, one would expect elasticities close to one, but in all econometric specifications, we find values well below one. We identify two reasons why higher prices could nevertheless reduce profits: cross price elasticities are negative and, due to the specific features of parimutuel betting, international competitors may only be attracted when take-out rates are above a critical threshold.     

我国农产品物流的发展研究

农产品物流是农产品流通的重要组成部分。我国农产品物流与国外发达国家相比还存在着很大差距,应改善我国农产品物流的落后状况,提高我国农产品物流效率,促进其迈向现代化。     

Legitimate governance of risk at the EU level? The case of genetically modified organisms

In the past few years, the EU has been establishing a new regulatory framework for GMOs, a central issue in the governance of risk that came under fierce attack in the mid-1990s. The primary question addressed in this article is whether this new framework will be able to solve the legitimacy problem of GMO governance at the EU level. Focusing on theories concerning input–output legitimacy and democracy and the role of expertise, this article examines the level of involvement of stakeholders in the process leading to the new rules; the predominant mechanisms of representation that have been used in that process; and the forms of participation in the day-to-day governance of risk as envisaged in the new rules. Based on document analysis and a series of interviews with central stakeholders, the conclusions bring up two further theoretical matters regarding EU governance, namely the transformative nature of citizenship and the conceptual distinction between input- and output-legitimacy.     

Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate

This paper estimates a VAR including labor productivity, real wage and unemployment rate, to identify the dynamic effects of technology, demand, and mark-up shocks, respectively, on the Italian labor market. Identification is achieved by imposing recursive restrictions on the matrix of long run multipliers. Our results show that both mark up and aggregate demand shocks permanently reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, technology shocks do not significantly affect the unemployment rate in the long run. These findings convey important policy implications: expansionary aggregate demand and deregulation policies reducing the mark up permanently decrease the Italian unemployment rate.Jel classification: C32, E32, J29This paper has been produced as part of a CEPR Research Network on New Approaches to the Study of Economic Fluctuations. We would like to thank Marcello DAmato, Mario Forni, Marco Lippi and Antonio Ribba for useful comments. We are also grateful to Bernd Sussmuth for pointing out to us several significant improvements to the paper.First version received: November 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

安徽农产品流通现代化的机遇、挑战及对策

建设现代农业,离不开农产品流通的现代化。农业产业是一个复杂的系统,农产品流通是其中的一个环节。农产品流通现代化要受到农业产业各环节的制约。文章分析了安徽省实现农产品流通现代化具有的农业生产、消费和政策保障等有利条件,但同时也面临着农产品市场化不足等问题,并提出相应的对策。     

外商直接投资、外包对中国制造业劳动需求弹性的影响

中国制造业行业的FDI与外包具有提高中国制造业劳动需求弹性的作用,这一影响是通过替代效应与产出效应两条渠道实现的。FDI流入与外包可能通过提高劳动需求弹性对中国制造业部门劳动者产生较大压力。     

依托“农超对接”实施农产品品牌化战略

"农超对接"为农产品的生产流通提供了一个良好的新模式,生产销售直接对接,直接对消费者负责,满足市场的需求。而在此基础上继续农产品品牌建设,不仅将"农超对接"的高度大大提升,而且品牌建设必将更为顺利和高效。这不仅符合消费者的需求,更是解决我国居民菜篮子问题的一条新途径,对于三农问题的解决、社会主义新农村的建设也同样具有重要意义。就"农超对接"下农产品品牌建设的相关背景、当下发展状况、实践经验和模式探索进行了研究,主要以山东省威海地区作为主要研究对象展开相关课题。     

信息时代下黑龙江省电子商务在山货市场营销中的应用

随着社会的发展,黑龙江省山货市场向规范化、产业化迈进。与此同时,市场竞争也日益激烈,在相对稳定的市场中进一步开拓市场份额是现在山货企业面临的主要问题之一。在信息时代的大市场环境中,计算机网络迅速发展,电子商务模式日趋成熟。电子商务不仅在日常生活中广泛应用,其在企业市场营销中也扮演着越来越重要的角色。黑龙江省山货企业要想在激励的市场竞争中实现突破,大力发展电子商务已成为一大新的选择。     

我国农产品质量安全刑法保护的立法完善

农产品质量安全关系国计民生,对其进行刑法规制具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。我国已初步形成切实可行的农产品质量安全刑法保护体系,但还存在核心概念界定模糊、罪状规定不科学、刑罚手段有缺陷、过失犯罪有待完善等问题,需要通过立法逐步建立和健全相关的制度,起到预防犯罪和惩罚犯罪的相应效果。