Default Predictors in Retail Credit Scoring: Evidence from Czech Banking Data

Credit to the private sector has risen rapidly in European emerging markets, but its risk evaluation has been largely neglected. Using retail-loan banking data from the Czech Republic, we construct two credit risk models based on logistic regression and classification and regression trees. Both methods are comparably efficient and detect similar financial and socioeconomic variables as the key determinants of default behavior. We also construct a model without the most important financial variable (amount of resources), which performs very well. This way, we confirm significance of sociodemographic variables and link our results with specific issues characteristic to new EU members.     

Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis

In this paper, we study the determinants of daily spreads for emerging market sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) over the period April 2002–December 2011. Using GARCH models, we find, first, that daily CDS spreads for emerging market sovereigns are more related to global and regional risk premia than to country-specific risk factors. This result is particularly evident during the second subsample (August 2007–December 2011), where neither macroeconomic variables nor country ratings significantly explain CDS spread changes. Second, measures of US bond, equity, and CDX High Yield returns, as well as emerging market credit returns, are the most dominant drivers of CDS spread changes. Finally, our analysis suggests that CDS spreads are more strongly influenced by international spillover effects during periods of market stress than during normal times.     

Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging

This paper analyzes determinants of country default risk in emerging markets, reflected by sovereign yield spreads. The results reported so far in the literature are heterogeneous with respect to significant explanatory variables. This could indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the “true” regression model. We use Bayesian Model Averaging as the model selection method in order to find the variables which are most likely to determine credit risk. We document that total debt, history of recent default, currency depreciation, and growth rate of foreign currency reserves as well as market sentiments are the key drivers of yield spreads.     

《新兴市场稳定资本流动和公平债务重组的原则》述评

《新兴市场稳定资本流动和公平债务重组的原则》(以下简称《原则》)是由一些新兴市场国家和以国际金融协会为首的国际私人债权人组织在2004年11月联合发布的。这一《原则》旨在促使发生债务危机的国家尽早恢复债务支付能力和确保国际资本向这些国家的稳定流动,其中主要涉及到透明度和信息流动、双方对话与合作、善意行动和债权人间公平待遇等基本原则。这些原则对于完善债务危机解决机制具有重要意义。     

Domestic macroeconomic determinants of precious metals prices in developed and emerging economies: An international analysis of the long and short run

This study examines the relationship between domestic macroeconomic factors and domestic precious metals prices across developed and emerging markets from 1979 to 2020. The statistical characteristics of the domestic variables are not found to be consistent across countries, so that these relationships cannot be modelled in one specific way. To model each metal domestically, we use various time series techniques as dictated by the combined characteristics of the domestic variables.The findings of this analysis reveal relationships that are not consistent across countries or precious metals. No consistent set of variables is found to exist that can explain either the short or the long run determinants of domestic precious metals prices, and there is no clear divide between developed or emerging markets. Any model of the determinants of a precious metal's domestic price requires individual handling by the practitioners or academics undertaking it, rather than assuming a single set of determinants as is frequently done.     

Health care reform and reform for health: creating a health system for communities in the 21st century

If we are to improve the health of the population and reduce the inequalities in health that plague our communities and our planet, we will have to give greater attention to the determinants of health. The reform of the health care system, necessary though it is, will never be sufficient; we need to reform our whole society and in particular to focus on human rather than economic development. At the community level we need to create healthy communities that are “health-creating systems” of environmental, social and human development, as well as health care systems that focus first on improving and maintaining health. Such a “bottom-down” health care system would see the hospital become once again the place of last resort (but still a potentially important partner in creating healthier communities) and would focus instead on how to provide health promotion and health care from the household level up.     

Determinants of leader behavior in an audit environment

Although leader or supervisory behaviors are generally thought to have a significant effect on subordinate performance, motivation and job satisfaction, the variables which affect an auditor's approach to supervision have not been investigated. In this paper we examine two categories of variables (situational variables and leader-person variables) which determine an auditor's use of key leader behavior. The determinants of leader behavior are examined in the context of an audit team composed of an accountant in charge (leader) and one or more staff assistants (subordinate). The results of our empirical tests provide some evidence that leader behavior is related to three variables: (1) the match between the accountant in charge's perception of the complexity of the task assigned to the staff assistant and the staff assistant's job experience, (2) the staff assistant's intolerance of ambiguity and (3) the accountant in charge's personality dominance.     

Pension Funds and Emerging Markets

This paper focuses on the investment behavior of pension funds in developed and emerging market countries. First, it analyzes the main determinants of the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries. Second, it assesses how pension funds in emerging markets have contributed to the development of local securities markets. Third, it analyzes the determinants of pension funds' investment performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of why the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries is likely to increase and what the challenges faced by pension funds in emerging markets are.     

Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries

In this paper, we study the long and short-runs determinants of sovereign CDS spread for eight emerging countries from 2008.Q4 to 2013.Q2. We estimate the spread of sovereign CDS using three macroeconomic determinants: current account, external debt and international reserves. Using the Pooled Mean Group cointegration approach, our findings can be summarized as follows: i, the existence of cointegration between the variables indicated above; ii, the coefficients of the current account, the external debt and international reserves are highly significant to explain the long-run sovereign CDS spread for all countries; iii, international reserves are more important than the current account in order to reduce the sovereign CDS spread in long-run; iv, when allowing for heterogeneous short-run dynamics, the short-run effects are not significant for all countries.     

Determinants of capital structure in emerging markets: Evidence from Vietnam

Capital structure decision is an important corporate behavior which draws strong interest from different stakeholders. It is more important in emerging markets due to their unique legal, cultural and institutional characteristics. This paper sheds further light on the question of whether capital structure determinants are different in emerging markets. We utilize a new and unique data set containing firm specific attributes over the period from 2006 to 2015. Employing GMM estimator to control for endogeneity, the results indicate that the determinants of capital structure are different for long-term and short-term indicators.     

Exploring the interaction between technology and morality in the field of genetic susceptibility testing: A scenario study

With the rise of genomics promises and concerns have emerged about future possibilities for screening of genetic susceptibilities to common diseases in the population. In this article we start from the assumption that for a better understanding of the future ethical implications of genetic susceptibility screening we need to address the interaction between technological and moral developments in society. We introduce a techno-ethical scenario approach and show how it may help us to explore more systematically potential future interactions between technological and moral developments in the field of genetic susceptibility screening. The first step is a historical account of population screening, focussing on the ways in which emerging practices of (genetic) screening have been mediated by an evolving moral landscape in our society. Based on this history we present a techno-ethical scenario of the future, showing how technological developments may shape conditions in our society in which the introduction and use of genetic susceptibility tests more and more become a matter of private decisions, reinforcing claims to individual self-determination as a deeply rooted value in the moral landscape of our society.     

Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust

This paper provides further analysis on the determinants of sovereign debt spreads for peripheral Eurozone countries since the start of EMU, paying special attention to episodes that characterized the global financial crisis aftermath starting in 2007. More specifically, the purpose of our research is to disentangle the role of fundamental variables and market perception about variations on risk in order to explain the evolution of sovereign spreads in EMU during the recent crisis. Our results, in line with previous literature, show the importance of three groups of observable variables, namely, changes in risk-aversion of creditors, fiscal indebtedness and liquidity variables. In addition, our model includes unobserved components that are estimated through the Kalman filter as time-varying deviation from fixed-mean parameters of spread determinants. This shows the importance of expectations (market sentiments), amplifying (or reducing) the relative importance of the spread determinants over time through the time-varying behavior of the parameters around their steady-state estimates.     

Hierarchical determinants of capital structure

We analyze the influence of time-, firm-, industry- and country-level determinants of capital structure. First, we apply hierarchical linear modeling in order to assess the relative importance of those levels. We find that time and firm levels explain 78% of firm leverage. Second, we include random intercepts and random coefficients in order to analyze the direct and indirect influences of firm/industry/country characteristics on firm leverage. We document several important indirect influences of variables at industry and country-levels on firm determinants of leverage, as well as several structural differences in the financial behavior between firms of developed and emerging countries.     

The role of life insurance in an emerging economy: Human capital protection,assets allocation and social interaction

In this paper, we provide micro-econometric evidence on the determinants of life insurance demand in China, the largest emerging market in the world. We employ the China Household Income Project (CHIP) dataset for the year 2002 in the analysis. The timing is ideal, because of the nature of the less well developed capital markets and social security systems in China in 2002, which sets a suitable stage to study the insurance demand behavior of emerging markets. The results indicate that both the human capital protection motive and the asset allocation motive are important in explaining the purchase of life insurance in China. In addition, we present three empirical regularities: (1) the positive correlation between the returns to human capital and the returns to market portfolio decrease the demand for life insurance; (2) both the current wealth and future income of a household exert curvilinear impacts on life insurance demand; (3) the breadth of a households social connections has substantial impacts on life insurance demand.     

Banks’ Net Interest Margin in the 2000s: A Macro-Accounting international perspective

This paper re-examines the determinants of Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the banking industries of 15 developed and emerging economies. It presents three main contributions with respect to previous studies: first, we analyze the determinants of NIM in the years leading to the 2008 financial crisis; second, we account for the role of different accounting standards across countries; third, we use multi-way cluster estimation methodologies which control for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in macroeconomic and banking variables. We find that the introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) contributed to lower NIM variations unexplained by standard accounting variables. Interest rate volatility is found to be positively and strongly related to NIM dynamics, whereas inflation risk is often found to be a relevant driver of NIM cross-country differences.     

The use of Web sites as a disclosure platform for corporate performance

Adopting a stockholders' interests' perspective, we explore three related questions: (1) What are the scope and patterns of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (2) What are the determinants of the extent and scope of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (3) Is corporate performance disclosure on the Internet relevant for valuation of a firm's earnings? Corporate performance disclosure relates to corporate actions and initiatives that directly affect society and, ultimately, stockholders' wealth. We focus on Web (HTML) disclosure. Our sample comprises Canada's largest publicly-traded firms, many of which are also SEC registrants. The extent and scope of web disclosure by these firms is rated using a coding grid. Regarding the first question, three disclosure patterns emerge: (1) firms providing disclosure about innovation, development and growth also tend to report about customer value as well as maintaining a Web site with good capabilities (business-related disclosure), (2) disclosure about human/intellectual capital is linked to social responsibility disclosure (social-related disclosure) and, (3) the disclosure of financial performance and corporate governance practices are both closely linked together (financial-related disclosure). Regarding the second question, firms apparently take into account variables proxying for information costs and benefits accruing to stockholders when determining the extent of their Web disclosure. Finally, regarding the third question, a firm's web-based performance disclosure appears to affect its earnings valuation multiple, although in a differential manner according to the nature of the information being conveyed.     

个人捐赠何以可为:慈善信息与组织信任的作用机制研究

捐赠作为慈善事业发展的基石,对社会发展和社会的良性运行具有重要意义。本文在实证调查基础上,运用OLS回归方法分析了慈善信息、组织信任与个人捐赠行为三者之间的关系。研究发现:慈善信息的获取对捐赠行为具有积极影响,其中通过新兴媒介获取慈善信息的影响远远大于通过传统媒介获取信息的影响;慈善信息的获取不仅直接影响个人的捐赠行为,而且可以通过慈善组织信任度这个中介变量间接影响个人捐赠行为。     

Credit cycles and capital flows: Effectiveness of the macroprudential policy framework in emerging market economies

I assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools in containing credit cycles per se or the impact of portfolio inflows on the cycles in major emerging market economies. The results show that borrower-based tools, measures with a domestic focus, and domestic reserve requirements are particularly effective. The findings are, in most cases, stronger for the recent period during which most of the macroprudential actions are undertaken, and generally hold for alternative definitions of credit cycle, the monetary policy stance, and portfolio inflows. Weaker results emerge for financial-institutions-based or foreign-currency related macroprudential tools.     

Diversification disasters

The recent financial crisis has revealed significant externalities and systemic risks that arise from the interconnectedness of financial intermediaries’ risk portfolios. We develop a model in which the negative externality arises because intermediaries’ actions to diversify that are optimal for individual intermediaries may prove to be suboptimal for society. We show that the externality depends critically on the distributional properties of the risks. The optimal social outcome involves less risk-sharing, but also a lower probability for massive collapses of intermediaries. We derive the exact conditions under which risk-sharing restrictions create a socially preferable outcome. Our analysis has implications for regulation of financial institutions and risk management.     

The determinants of sovereign credit spread changes in the Euro-zone

Using a database of Euro-denominated government bonds covering the period from January 2000 to December 2010, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of government credit spreads in the Euro-area. The analysis is divided into two sub-periods delimited by the global financial crisis that started in August 2007. We find evidence of a clear shift in the behavior of market participants from a convergence-trade expectation, based on market related factors, before August 2007, to one mainly driven by macroeconomic country-specific variables and an international common risk factor. There is no evidence of a significant role for the liquidity risk before or during the financial crisis period. Overall, our results give support to the Merton-type structural credit risk models and confirm that there are considerable similarities between the factors explaining the dynamics of the credit risk spreads and the factors driving the prices on the government bond markets.