人口老龄化对老年社会保障及社会服务提出的挑战

根据最新统计资料,就某些发达国家和中国的人口老龄化对社会保障的影响问题作了研究。人口老龄化的社会经济影响主要体现在社会保障的问题上,由于人口老龄化,特别是正规职业人口的老龄化导致退休金、医疗保障和老年人的服务问题成为普遍性的社会问题,解决这些问题成为我国社会保障制度建设重点所在。     

流动人口与常住居民计生服务均等化评价与需求偏好差异——基于绍兴市的个案研究

对绍兴市的流动人口和常住居民两个群体享有的计划生育公共服务的均等化水平进行了评价和分析。总体上流动人口与常住居民之间的计生服务均等化程度处于较高水平,但婚姻状况等等一些个人特征因素不同程度地影响着流动人口对计生服务均等化的感受和评价。流动人口与常住居民对计生服务的内容存在较大的需求偏好差异。     

关于信任的博弈分析——基于个体的自利理性和社会理性

信任的根本在于不完全信息和有限理性,信任是个体弥补自己理性不足的一种策略.所以,信任分析无法在个体的自利理性下完成,需要扩展个体理性的范畴.将个体理性扩展为自利理性和社会理性,利用理性的这种二元特性,重新解释了两个具有代表性的博弈模型--蜈蚣博弈和信任博弈.这不但对信任问题提出了一种新的分析框架,而且还解决了博弈分析的困境.这说明,对个体理性的扩展是合适的,个体的社会理性是经济学不可忽视的一部分.     

The Distributional Incidence of Growth: A Social Welfare Approach

This paper provides a normative framework for the assessment of the distributional incidence of growth. By removing the anonymity axiom, such framework is able to evaluate the individual income changes over time and the reshuffling of individuals along the income distribution that are determined by the pattern of income growth. We adopt a rank dependent social welfare function expressed in terms of initial rank and individual income change and we obtain partial and complete dominance conditions over different growth paths. These dominance conditions account for the different components determining the overall impact of growth, that is the size of growth and its vertical and horizontal incidence. We then provide an empirical application for Italy: this analysis shows the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis suffered by the Italian populaltion.     

Testing Social Preferences for an Economic “Bad”: An Artefactual Field Experiment*

We test for social preferences over a commodity in an artefactual field experiment using the random price voting mechanism. Subjects are university staff members, and the commodity is water “contaminated” by a sterilized cockroach. Our results suggest that social preferences exist with respect to commodities and “bads”, supporting a more general utility framework for social preferences. Our empirical test allows for the coexistence of three social‐preference models; our results support the models of Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and Charness and Rabin (2002), but not the model of Bolton and Ockenfels (2000). Also, we find that incorporating social preferences improves the efficiency of majority‐rules voting.     

社会困境中的社会建设——以成都市为例

基于博弈论和社会心理学的基础,首先说明了社会建设能够调和个人利益和整体利益,眼前利益和长远利益之间的矛盾,随后介绍社会困境的含义,旨在说明社会建设本质上就是为了解决社会困境,接着将社会困境分为多人困境和两人困境,并分别介绍了相应的解决办法,最后详细介绍了成都市社会建设举措能调解社会困境的价值,处理好效率与公平的关系。     

The Relationship between Behavioral and Attitudinal Trust: A Cross-cultural Study

We study the relationship between trust in an experiment and trust measured by means of popular survey items in different countries. Students from Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico and Sweden participate in a public goods game experiment and answer a set of standard attitudinal survey questions about trust. We find that behavioral trust and attitudinal trust significantly differ among countries. Behavioral trust is highest in Sweden, followed by Latin America, and lowest in India. Attitudinal trust is highest in Chile and Sweden, followed by India and Mexico, and lowest in Colombia. Further, the predictive power of survey items also differs among countries. Trust measured by survey items is significantly related to behavioral trust in some but not in all societies. No single survey item predicts actual trust across all countries. Plausible explanations of the inconsistent relationship between behavioral and attitudinal trust across countries are discussed.     

内蒙古农村牧区人口布局调整对农村牧区社会保障工作的影响及政策建议

当前内蒙古农村牧区社会保障制度工作正处于积极探索、初步建立阶段。各盟市、旗县均根据本地区的经济社会发展状况建立试行了部分社会保障政策。社会保障制度建设及社会保障工作的开展与社会的经济发展水平、人口因素等息息相关。内蒙古农村牧区现有人口布局呈现动态化和不均衡性等特点,这主要是由于人口的流动、迁移等所导致的。人口的流动性增强,区域间分布不均衡等对社会保障制度的建设、开展等提出了新的难点。     

A Class of Social Welfare Functions That Depend on Mean Income and Income Polarization

A well‐established strategy for evaluating alternative income distributions is based on the use of an abbreviated social welfare function that depends only on mean income and an inequality index. In keeping with this literature, we study the existence of social welfare functions that can be written as a trade‐off between efficiency and income polarization. This paper proposes a class of social welfare functions consistent with the Esteban and Ray, and Duclos, Esteban and Ray income polarization indices. For this result, we expand the domain for personal preferences to incorporate not only own income but also the well‐being of others. In addition, we link our proposal to the literature on relative satisfaction. The approach is illustrated by an empirical application using the CPS database for the United States in the period 1991–2010.     

流动人口的社会分层与居住质量——基于上海市长宁区“六普”数据的分析

有关流动人口的分层研究以往大多集中于制度性因素层面(户籍制度),或者从职业、收入等非制度性因素层面进行区分。从居住角度来研究流动人口的社会分层问题并不多见。利用上海市长宁区第六次人口普查数据作了分析研究。在流动人口中,住房质量的好坏、是否拥有产权不再是精英阶层的特权,相反,精英阶层和非精英阶层内部出现分化,非精英阶层中的商业服务人员无论在产权的拥有上,还是住房质量上都表现出明显的优势,而精英阶层中的专业人员在住房质量上也较为突出,但在住房面积上,职业分层并未对住房面积的大小产生影响。     

Population Ageing and Social Security in Asia

Asian countries are at different stages of demographic transition. While Central and South Asian countries are relatively young and will remain so for some time, East and Southeast Asia are expected to age at an unprecedented rate in the next few decades. Japan has reached the future first. Other nations, such as China, are still young but ageing faster than many advanced economies, including Australia and the USA. This demographic shift has considerable implications for the development of social policy. Here too, countries differ widely. This paper sets the context for the rest of the volume. The focus is mostly on countries in East and Southeast Asia, but it includes contrasting comparisons to key regional countries such as India and Australia. First, the paper presents the context: the demographic, urbanization, and social trends facing Asia. Second, it tackles the allocation of resources for the elderly, in particular, by summarizing approaches to two areas of social policy most pertinent to population ageing: retirement income and health care.     

非正式社会结构下民间信用演进与生命周期

在非正式制度为主导的农村非正式社会结构中,基于特殊信任主义的民间信用,其博弈主体由于交易域和社会交换域的关联博弈和基于声誉的私人契约执行机制,使得民间信用契约具有自我执行的内在机制.随着农村非正式社会结构的制度转型,使得特殊信任主义向一般信任主义演变,并促使中国民间信用制度沿着其生命周期轨迹发生适应性变迁.     

Social Capital: A Roadmap of Theoretical and Empirical Contributions and Limitations

The general idea of social capital is that relationships matter. In this sense, the trust, cooperation and reciprocity involved in these relationships can have a positive impact on the wealth of society by reducing transaction costs, facilitating collective actions, and lowering opportunistic behavior. This work sheds light on the different theoretical and empirical problems that a scholar is likely to face in dealing with social capital research and analysis. We propose a critical roadmap of the social capital theories and applications for a general audience, nonusers included, with particular attention to the works of political and social economists. We provide a critical debate on the different definitions and measures produced, the theoretical frameworks developed, and the empirical techniques adopted so far in the analysis of the impact of social capital on socio-economic outcomes. We turn to the limitations of these techniques and suggest some basic strategies to reduce the magnitude of these limitations.     

我国人口的社会结构失衡:理论机制与经验事实

随着生育率水平的持续下降,我国不仅面临人口数量增长的困境,而且也发生了严重的人口社会结构失衡.文章基于教育资源稀释理论,从理论和经验两个方面研究了教育与生育率之间的相互作用以及由此所决定的人口发展规律,从而论证了人口社会结构失衡现象及其形成机制.研究表明:(1)教育与生育率之间的相互作用机制,一方面可以使生育率水平持续上升,导致人口发展进入高生育陷阱,另一方面也能够使生育率水平不断下降,让人口发展滑入低生育陷阱,由此形成了人口发展的"Z"形变化规律,即在中等教育水平上教育与生育率之间显著负相关,而在较高和较低的教育水平上两者并无明显关联;(2)由于我国的教育发展存在明显的城乡差距、地区差距和民族差距,那么在"Z"形人口发展规律的影响下,所有居民必然会逐步分化为两类,分别向生育率的高低两端集聚,从而就产生了人口的城乡结构、地区结构、民族结构和素质结构的失衡.进一步地,文章基于全国人口普查县级数据,使用工具变量法和Hausman-Taylor估计方法,验证了这种"Z"形人口发展规律及其所决定的人口社会结构失衡.文章不仅可以丰富当前的人口结构研究,而且对我国的人口和教育改革具有重要的启示.     

A little fairness may induce a lot of redistribution in democracy

We use a model of self-centered inequality aversion suggested by Fehr and Schmidt (Quart. J. Econom. 114 (3) (1999) 817) to study voting on redistribution. We theoretically identify two classes of conditions when an empirically plausible amount of fairness preferences induces redistribution through referenda. We test the predictions of the adapted inequality aversion model in a simple redistribution experiment and find that it predicts voting outcomes far better than the standard model of voting assuming rationality and strict self-interest.     

Modelling Heterogeneous Preferences for Income Redistribution–An Application of Continuous and Discrete Distributions

This paper investigates observable and unobservable heterogeneity in individuals’ preferences for redistribution—differentiating the desired overall volume of redistribution and who should receive benefits, subsidies, or transfers. We use data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in the field and based on a representative sample of the German voting‐age population. Applying random parameters and latent class models, our results show that latent and potentially discontinuously distributed factors must be accounted for, as they heavily impact the interpretation of the findings. We find considerable heterogeneity in redistribution preferences, clearly identifying three distinct subgroups. While all groups are in favor of redistribution, they differ regarding the preferred allocation of the redistributive budget.     

Taxation and consumption: evidence from a representative survey of the German population

Using a representative survey of the German population, this article studies self-reported individual consumption responses to a recent exogenous payroll tax reduction. About 55% of the respondents report that they spend the extra money, indicating considerable potential for tax changes to affect consumption and economic activity. Our analysis of the socio-demographic and economic covariates of consumption responses suggests, among other effects, that interest rates are related to consumption responses to tax changes, and that households with higher income have a higher propensity to consume.     

社会资本概念的学科异同与维度划分

在Bourdieu对社会资本进行系统分析以后,不同领域的研究者开始从不同学科角度对社会资本概念进行解释。社会学、经济学和政治学学科对社会资本及其内涵的理解有差异也有联系,社会资本概念可以从二维、三维、四维等角度进行维度划分,并以此为基础进一步明确社会资本概念。     

A characterization of the Shapley value in queueing problems

A set of agents stand to receive a service. No two agents can be served simultaneously. A queue has to be organized, and agents having to wait should receive monetary compensations. We characterize the rule assigning positions in the queue and compensations corresponding to the payoffs recommended by the Shapley value of the associated cooperative game. We use a property of independence with respect to increase in some agents’ impatience, and an equal responsibility property.     

地区经济差距与人口流动:基于七国大都市区人口分布的比较研究

大都市区是一国人口的吸纳池。我国东部大都市区对人口的吸纳作用小,各大都市区的郊区和所辖县,以及多数大都市区的市区尚有很大的潜力和空间吸纳外来人口。鼓励包括中西部在内的农村剩余劳动力向东部大都市市区及郊区迁移,是一条减少地区和城乡经济差距,实现农村劳动力转移的有效途径。