Asymmetric and Time‐Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G‐7 Countries

We use Granger causality tests within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS‐VAR) model using monthly data for G‐7 countries covering the period 1959:12–2008:10 to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation‐uncertainty. The MS‐VAR model allows us to model parameter time‐variation so as to reflect changes in Granger causality, assuming that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain. Inflation uncertainty is measured as the conditional variance generated by a Fractionally Integrated Smooth Transition Autoregressive Moving Average‐Asymmetric Power ARCH (FISTARMA‐APARCH) model. The distinguishing feature of our approach from the previous studies is the determination of the sign of the Granger causality relationship between inflation and its uncertainty over time. First, using a rolling VAR model, we show that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is time varying with frequent breaks. Second, using the MS‐VAR model, we obtain strong evidence in favour of the Holland's ‘stabilizing Fed hypothesis’ for Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States. We also find evidence in favour of the Friedman hypothesis for Canada and the United States.     

Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries

Abstract

We analyze a set of countries which adopted inflation targeting (IT) as a policy tool. We model the pre‐IT period with ARMA and GARCH methods, and conduct the one‐step ahead forecasting for the remainder of the times series data. The actual and forecasted inflation levels are compared for each country. We find that even though the actual inflation levels are lower than the forecasted ones, there is no statistical evidence to suggest that the adoption of IT causes a structural break in the inflation levels of the countries which adopt IT.     

通货膨胀目标制的理论思考--论我国货币政策中介目标的重新界定

随着经济与金融的不断发展，货币供应量与通货膨胀率等最终目标的相关性以及货币供应量自身的可控性和可测性也受到越来越多的干扰。为此，自1990年代起，一些国家相继改弦更张，把货币政策目标由货币供应量转为通货膨胀率，由此形成所谓的通货膨胀目标制。本文运用模型分析，在封闭经济的假设基础上分别讨论了严格通货膨胀目标制和灵活通货膨胀目标制。针对我国目前的货币供应量目标缺乏有效性状况，本文认为可以借鉴通货膨胀目标制对我国货币政策中介目标进行重新界定。     

On Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom

This paper discusses some of the operational issues relevant to inflation-targeting in the United Kingdom, in particular: whether inflation targeting is 'new'; whether it is potentially destabilising; and whether it requires too much knowledge on the part of the authorities. It goes on to discuss the role of inflation forecasts in general, and inflation probability distributions in particular, in the context of inflation-targeting in the UK. It also discusses the role of transparency in such a regime, and provides some evidence on its effect.     

Is There a Trade‐Off Between Inflation Variability and Output‐Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?

This paper examines the performance of monetary policy in eleven EMU countries for the whole period of the EMS. This is based on the trade‐off between inflation variability and output‐gap variability. To this end, we examine whether the introduction of an implicit inflation targeting by the EMU member countries after the Maastricht Treaty, changed the trade‐off between inflation variability and output‐gap variability. We employ a stochastic volatility model for two sub‐periods of the EMS (i.e. before and after the Maastricht Treaty). We find that the trade‐off varies amongst EMU countries. The implication of these findings is that there are asymmetries in the euro area, due to different economic structures among the member countries of the EMU.     

Asymmetric Causality Between Inflation and Uncertainty: Evidences from 33 Developed and Developing Countries

Empirical studies have provided conflicting findings about the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Thus, the direction of the causality is still questionable. The present paper is aimed to extend the existing literature using non-linearity models and asymmetric causality tests. For this purpose, the data for 33 developed and developing countries during 1988Q4-2016Q3 is used. The results showed an asymmetry in the inflation behavior which is specified by smooth transition process, as well as separating positive and negative shocks observed in causality test. The asymmetric causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty is confirmed in most countries, although the empirical evidence in favor of Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis is found to be weaker than Friedman-Ball hypothesis.

     

“GATT‐think” with Asymmetric Countries*

We argue that a trade agreement which conforms to GATT’s reciprocity rule benefits the (stronger) less trade‐dependent country at the expense of the (weaker) more trade‐dependent country. Reciprocity is so unfavorable to the weaker country that it may be worse off under reciprocity than under the Nash‐ bargaining solution, a “power‐based” approach to trade negotiations that reflects power asymmetries among trading partners. Our results question Bagwell and Staiger’s (1999 , 2000 ) view of reciprocity as a rule that “serves to mitigate the influence of power asymmetries on negotiated outcomes.”     

Central Bank Behavior, the Institutional Framework, and Policy Regimes: Inflation Versus Noninflation Targeting Countries

This article estimates central bank reaction functions for 20 OECD countries. It bridges the gap between the Taylor reaction function literature and the political-economy literature. Central banks react to both inflation and the output gap. Moreover, inflation-targeting countries have been able to reduce nominal interest rate to a greater extent than have non-inflation-targeting countries. Countries with fixed exchange rates react more strongly to inflation but not at all to the output gap, unlike countries with floating rates. Political influences also seem relatively more important in fixed exchange rate countries. Central bank independence also helps reduce nominal interest rates. (JEL E58 , C31 , C32 , C53 )     

Targeting the Exchange Rate Under Inflation*

The purpose of this paper is to implement empirically a variant of the new theory of exchange-rate targeting, suitable for high-inflation, small, open economies. We formulate an expectations-induced relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamental, subject to random shocks and target-zone constraints on rates of depreciation. the empirical analysis provides estimates for the key parameters of the exchange-rate dynamic equation, and thereby identifies the unique roles played by policy variables and market fundamentals in foreign-exchange markets.     

通货膨胀目标制在中国的适用性分析

近几年,国内学术界建议政府采纳通货膨胀目标制的呼声越来越高。由通货膨胀目标制的内涵出发,客观地阐述通货膨胀目标制的优越性,根据中国当前的具体国情及其适用条件,通货膨胀目标制在中国暂时尚缺乏可行性。     

On the Future of Inflation Targeting in East Asia

This article analyzes the problems associated with inflation targeting (IT) regimes in a number of East Asian countries. It scrutinizes the policy conflicts that can arise when a central bank that has adopted a formal inflation target to guide the conduct of monetary policy simultaneously manages the exchange rate and pursues financial stability objectives. To this end, it empirically investigates the importance of exchange rate and terms of trade movements as determinants of inflation rates across East Asian economies and discusses the role of central banks in guarding financial stability and the ways this may conflict with an IT regime. The article argues that IT never really has been a suitable monetary framework for East Asian countries and that it should hence be supplanted by transparent monetary frameworks that explicitly recognize the multiple goals that are being pursued by East Asian central banks.     

通货膨胀目标制实践经验的国际考察

作为一种新型的货币政策制度框架,标准型通货膨胀目标制在全球的中央银行中已经获得了一定的认同.然而迄今为止,我们还缺乏一个对目前大量的通货膨胀目标制实践经验进行简洁而全面的概括,借以对货币政策的实践和通货膨胀目标钉住者的前景展望提供相应指南.而这种指南之所以必要,是因为队伍不断庞大的发展中国家和新兴市场经济体正在考虑是否采纳通货膨胀目标制.借鉴标准型通货膨胀目标制国家在控制通货膨胀过程中所积累的经验,探讨通货膨胀目标制国家面临的主要问题、发展趋势、政策实践,其目的是为了从国家的角度来思考是否应该采纳通货膨胀目标制;而对于已经实施通货膨胀目标制的国家,则要考虑如何健全这一制度框架.     

A Union-bashing Model of Inflation Targeting

This paper shows that in an open two‐sector economy, centralization of wage setting may be important in determining the employment (and welfare) effects of different monetary targets. By disciplining unions in the sectors open to international trade, exchange rate targeting yields higher employment than inflation targeting when wage‐setting is more centralized in the open sector than in the shielded sector. When wage‐setting centralization is higher in the shielded sector, we show that general price‐level inflation targeting, while better than exchange rate targeting, is inferior to an inflation target that focuses more heavily on shielded sector prices.     

Is Globalization Weakening the Inflation–Output Relationship?

This paper investigates whether trade and financial openness has weakened the inflation–output trade‐off and caused a shift in the preferences of monetary authorities. Based on the backward‐looking Phillips curve and a Taylor‐type interest rate rule, our results for France, the UK and the USA for the 1970–2012 period do not provide support for the relevance of globalization in making inflation less responsive to output expansions. Moreover, the change of preferences of Central Banks towards growth‐oriented objectives is neither due to higher trade nor to financial globalization.     

Structural Changes and the Scope of Inflation Targeting in Korea *

A small, open macroeconomic model that accounts for new financial accelerator effects (the effects of fluctuations in asset prices on bank credit and economic activity) is developed to evaluate various policy rules for inflation targeting. Given the conditions of asset markets and the fragility of the financial sector, monetary policy responses can potentially amplify the financial accelerator effect. Simulations are used to compare various forms of inflation targeting using a model that emphasizes long-term inflation expectations, output changes, and the asset price channels. The simulations suggest that a successful outcome can be obtained by adhering to simple forward-looking rules, rather than backward-looking policy rules. Furthermore, inflation targeting can contribute to price as well as output stability by helping to keep the financial accelerator from being activated. Inflation targeting in emerging economies can provide an environment conducive to long-term capital market development. [E51,F3,F4]     

Indian Monetary Policy in the Time of Inflation Targeting and Demonetization

This paper provides a narrative of Indian monetary policy since the North Atlantic Financial Crisis (NAFC) in the mid‐2008 till the current period. The period 2009–2013 was dominated by the joint monetary and fiscal stimuli of the Indian authorities prompted by the NAFC. These, along with some structural shocks and a hands‐off attitude in forex market intervention, could have had their role in rising inflation and external account instability (leading up to the taper tantrum episode). In such a backdrop, after considerable discussion during 2013–2014, a Monetary Policy Framework Agreement was signed between the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India on February 20, 2015 that formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (IT) in India. While the IT regime so far has coincided with significant reduction in inflation in India, the atmosphere has been benign. Now that fuel prices have started moving in the north‐east direction, the government has proposed a revised framework for the minimum support price in the Union Budget for 2018–2019 and fiscal slippages have started happening, it remains to be seen whether IT can wither more rough weather in the days to come. Finally, in recent years, Indian monetary policy has been dominated by two significant events: the emergence of significant deterioration of Indian public sector balance sheets, and the demonetization episode in November 2016. Monetary policy in both of these periods wrestled with fashioning an appropriate strategy for managing the impossible trinity.     

Inflation Expectations and the Stability Properties of Nominal GDP Targeting

Ball (1999) uses a small closed economy model to show that nominal GDP targeting can lead to instability. This paper extends Ball's model to uncover the role inflation expectations play in generating this instability. Allowing inflation expectations to be formed by the more general mixed expectations process, which encompasses Ball's model, we show that nominal GDP targeting is unlikely to lead to instability. We further show that in Ball's model where exact targeting causes instability that moving to inexact targeting restores stability.